Does one envy Narendra
Modi’s position as India’s 17th prime
minister? Perhaps not, since more than any other premier he has the burden of
proof on his shoulders for turning India’s economy around, bringing down the
temperature of communal politics in his country, and ensuring that his domestic
and foreign policy doesn’t create a fire across the region.
From an
economic standpoint, the state of Gujarat is considered as a poster for Modi’s
performance. A number of people, including the business community in Pakistan,
look atModi as the man who may be able
to do economic miracles for the rest of India and even take some hard decisions for
improving bilateral trade between the two countries. Considering what many in
India say about the need for accountability on how Gujarat was turned around or
special concessions given to the corporate sector, it is a tough challenge for
the new prime minister to prove his worth. This would include creating a fine balance
between the rich and greedy corporate sector and the upcoming middle class to
making it work for the millions of have-nots that India has in abundance.
Issues become even more complicated with the need to strike a
balance between Hindutva politics and making space for India’s minority groups.
Given India’s multi-communal base, no government can afford to light a communal fire. Even if we were to
imagine that Narendra Modi was innocent of the 2002 Gujarat carnage, he doesn’t
have the natural advantage of a good image that the Congress party had, often
unfairly. History haunts both negatively and positively. Although the
post-Nehru Congress is responsible for a lot of communal mess, it managed to
survive for a long time on its liberal image. The BJP under Modi does not enjoy
such a persona. Despite its efforts to bring members of the Muslim elite on
board, the bulk of Muslims and other minorities would be wary of a hawkish
Hindu support base of the party and what it might mean for the minorities.
I
recently had a chance to meet scion of an old Muslim Nawab family studying in
an elite British university. With his eyes on the Congress party to provide him
political space in future, his main argument was how Indian Muslims had become
integrated with the idea of India. My concern was that,
in fact, over years the integrated Muslim at the lower end had become less
integrated. This Muslim may not want another Pakistan, since the latter does
not appear to be in a shape to even protect itself, but is keener to create
internal violent patronages to contest the state. I was also reminded of images
of Indian Muslim visitors to Pakistan during the 1980s and the 1990s, who were
quite comfortable with their image of India, than a number of Muslims that you
come across today in India.
What is even sadder and
almost at the scale of a tragedy is that this large community and its relations
with its own government and state have become much more tightly linked with
Delhi’s bilateral relations with Rawalpindi via Islamabad. Even if we argue
that India’s Muslims shouldn’t be Pakistan’s concern, there is always the fear
of Modi sarkar viewing these Muslims as Islamabad’s agents. The state’s
military, intelligence and law-enforcement bureaucracy may also get tempted to
point fingers.
Caught
in the middle of such politics is an even more tragic character of Pakistan’s
Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, who has lost the opportunity to develop trade
ties with India. He cannot even extend the visa of two Indian journalists, who as per an older
unwritten arrangement, could stay and work in Islamabad for almost three years.
Some of the GHQ’s journalist friends were quick to equate the non-extension of
these visas with India denying visas to some Pakistanis, totally forgetting
that this situation is entirely different. These journalists should not have
been punished for Islamabad or
Rawalpindi’s inefficiency in not sending Pakistani journalists
to Delhi. Closing down these journalist positions in each other’s states will
deprive both of understanding and talking to each other’s societies. Iron
curtains have never brought peace or stability.
A critical fact worth
comprehending is that both India and Pakistan are at a tricky stage of
sociopolitical redefinition. While India prepares towards a more singular
communal identity, Pakistan has turned into a hybrid-theocracy where various
kinds of zealots have begun to define social, political and eventually foreign
policy norms. A clash between the two is imminent. There are elements in
Pakistan who have little problem turning the state North Korea-like as long as
it can successfully challenge Modi’s dream of a new India. The intriguing part
of this formula is that even such forces may piggyback on Modi’s image of a
right-wing zealot. In case of a limited war or some kind of regional conflict,
the responsibility would equally fall on the new Indian prime minister’s
shoulders, mainly due to his reputation. Surely, the world will deal with him
and even issue him visas, however, the international community may be equally
curious to see if he proves them right in their discomfort about him as someone
accused of involvement with violence within his own state.
There is a part of the
Pakistani state keen to take the region forward and another that does not want
to engage at all because its heart and mind tells it not to. This is a Pakistan
that reads itself like a forever happening tragedy for which it holds the world
outside responsible. This particular set of strategists is already feeling
uncomfortable with Abdullah Abdullah in the north
and Modi in the east. Some of the state’s precious ‘strategic assets’ have started
with their propaganda against both.
Any increase in tension
and violence will prove distracting to the new Indian leadership if it does not
have its calculations right on how to deal with such an eventuality. Not that
the new Indian prime minister would like the advise but he has far less space
than his predecessor to prove that he is the right man for the right job.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 22nd, 2014.
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