Was Kashmir
flooding a man - made disaster?
India-administered Kashmir, located in the
Himalayas in the country's north, has been totally devastated by floods - the
worst in more than 60 years.
Even as the region grapples with the aftermath of
the swirling waters, which have left more than 250 dead and millions homeless,
the question is why this flood? Is this enormous tragedy a natural event or
could it have been prevented by better weather forecasting data? Was the
state's preparedness with disasters adequate at all?
But more importantly, is there a link between the
repeated floods occurring in the Himalayas and climate change? And if so, what
can the country do to cope with a disaster of this scale and magnitude?
The answers are not simple. The fact is that unseasonable and extreme rainfall began in the region
on the night of September 2. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had
issued a warning about the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall. But it
was not heeded. It can be argued that such warnings are rarely
"actionable" - governments do not comprehend that such rainfalls
could have horrific consequences and so do not act in time.
But rain did wreak havoc in this high
Himalayan region. In some places, it was 400 percent more than the monthly
average. In no time, the city of Srinagar was submerged. The government of
India-administered Kashmir, in the words of its chief minister, was
"completely paralysed".
It would seem that the flood came unexpectedly;
that the waters of Jhelum - the river that flows through Srinagar - rose
without warning. But it is not, as I maintain, so simple.
It was barely a year ago that Uttarakhand, another
Himalayan state, was devastated by
floods. There, also, the rainfall was unexpected and extremely
high, and authorities had ignored warnings. Raging floodwaters killed more than
5,000 people and many are still missing. The human tragedy in Uttarakhand was
enormous.
The fact is that there is evidence proving a change
in global weather patterns and its natural variability, ie, climate change,
brought about by man-made carbon emissions is heating up the atmosphere faster
than normal.
Scientists who study monsoons tell us that they are
beginning to make the distinction between a "normal" monsoon and an
extreme amount of rain. Remember that monsoons are generally confounding
natural events that are hard to predict and even harder to pin down. Even then
scientists are able to find a change in patterns.
Climate models predict that heavy rain events will increase over the Indian
subcontinent. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change reports confirm
that climate change will lead to an increase in frequency, intensity, spatial
extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather events.
This is further confirmed by
Indian scientists working at the Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology, based in Pune, who have found that very heavy and heavy
rainfall events - over 150-100 mm/day - are on the increase while moderate
events are decreasing over the Indian subcontinent.
|
Pakistan's
'breadbasket' battered by floods
|
There is also evidence that the Himalayan region
will be the worst hit with extreme rain events. Given that this is the world's
youngest and most fragile mountain region, it spells big trouble.
But this is not all. All this is further
complicated by the fact that multiple factors affect weather and another set of
multiple factors affect its severity and impact.
In other words, the causes of devastation following
extreme events - such as droughts or floods - are often complicated, and
mismanagement of resources and poor planning also share the blame.
Kashmir's unusually high rainfall was only part of
the problem. The state does not have a flood forecasting system or capacity for
disaster preparedness.
Most of the natural drainage channels have been
destroyed due to utter mismanagement. The traditional system of flood
management was to channelise the water from the Himalayas into lakes and water
channels. The Dal and Nageen lakes in Srinagar are not just its beauty spots
but also its sponges.
The water from the massive catchment
comes into the lakes, which are interconnected. More importantly, each lake has
its flood discharge channel from where the water spills over for drainage. But
over time, we have forgotten the art of drainage - we only see land for
building, nothing for water.
The attitude is, it will rain for a few
days and why should we "waste" land for this. This is what has
happened in Srinagar. Residential buildings have come up in the low-lying areas
of the city, flood channels have been encroached
upon or simply neglected. Now, when the extreme and heavy
rains come - with greater frequency and intensity because of climate change -
the water has nowhere to go. Floods and devastation are inevitable.
So, all this makes for a double-whammy: On the one
hand, we are mismanaging our water resources, intensifying floods and droughts.
On the other hand, climate change is beginning to make the country even more
vulnerable because of increased frequency of extreme weather events.
This is the real tragedy of the floods that are
hitting Kashmir. And only if we can learn the real lesson behind it can we find
ways of dealing with it in the future.
First, it requires countries such as India to raise
the importance of climate change action - the need for an ambitious and
equitous agreement with the world community. As yet the world, particularly the
rich and already developed world, is doing too little to cut its emissions that
cause climate change.
Secondly, it requires accepting that dealing with
climate change impacts is urgent and imperative. Adaptation will require
relearning the art and science of water management so that regions such as
Kashmir can cope with excess rain in the future.
It also means increased capacity of forecasting and
information dissemination so that people are aware of the dangers and lives are
not lost.
This is a sign of what the future holds. It is time
we read the writing on the wall.
Sunita Narain is an environmental
activist and the editor of Down To Earth magazine and director of Centre of
Science and Environment based in New Delhi.
The views expressed in this article are
the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
No comments:
Post a Comment