JAMMU
KASHMIR A FRACTURED MANDATE THE BIG PICTURE
Most of the immediate reaction to the
just concluded J&K Assembly election has been on its nature and the
outcome. True, the verdict is fractured. But what caused it? Is the divided
mandate a manifestation of a deeper issue that we have to focus more, than on
who will form the government and who support it? What is the Big Picture that
is evolving and what it means for the future stability of the State and its
people?
Shujaat Bukhari titled his column as
the “Fractured Mandate” and The Hindu editorial called it as a “Fragmented
Verdict”. National newspapers referred the election results in the following
phrases: “Jammu goes the saffron way”; “From a small fry, BJP emerges as major
player in state”; and “No easy Options for PDP, BJP”. All these reflect perhaps
a reality or a new beginning. The larger question is, what does this portend
for J&K and how did this development emerge? Since an eventful year is
coming to an end, it will be useful to do a retrospect and make a forecast on
why it had happened and what it means.
Statistically, the BJP has swept the
Jammu region, with an exception in few constituencies especially in Poonch
district. From Bani, Basholi and Kathua to Chhamb, Akhnoor and Nowshera, the
BJP has swept the region. However, further west, the story is different in
Rajouri, Poonch, Mendhar and Surankote. PDP has captured
Rajouri and Poonch, while Mendhar and Surankote have been won by the NC and
Congress.
Similarly, there has been a sweep in
Bhaderwah-Ramban-Kishtwar belt by the BJP. However, north of Ramban, across the
Banihal, it is a different story in Kashmir Valley. The PDP has regained its
support base in Kashmir Valley; in fact, had it not been for the boycott call
and less polling in Srinagar during the last elections, the PDP would have won
more seats in 2008 itself.
Across the mighty Zoji La, there is
yet another story in Kargil and Leh. The constituencies of Zanskar, Kargil, Leh
and Nubra won by candidates who are independent or belonging to the Congress
also tell a story.
Besides the bad performance of
National Conference and Congress, which was expected, rejection of the Panthers
Party and the emergence of Lone’s JKPC in north Kashmir, what do the recent
elections signify?
Do the recent elections and its
fractured mandate reflect a clear regional divide and a communal fault line in
J&K? If the answer is an unfortunate yes, than the first big challenge for
any party that forms the government is to address this divide. Why has the BJP
that has swept the rest of Jammu region failed in Poonch and Rajouri? Why has
PDP that has been the most successful in Valley, failed to repeat its
performance outside it, except for few constituencies across the Pir Panjal?
Any why has Ladakh neither preferred the BJP nor the PDP? This divide on
regional and communal basis, perhaps is the biggest threat to the future of
J&K.
The civil societies within J&K
will have to ponder the larger implications of the election results, than
narrowly focussing on whether PDP will align with BJP, or form the government
with support from Congress and NC. The primary issue facing the political
parties in J&K is not their ideology, or whether it helps or prevent from
forming the next government. The big picture is how to address the looming
threat, which has ended up in producing a hung verdict.
Non-addressal of the real cause, and
looking at only managing its manifestation will only produce political
instability and future hung assemblies. When did a party command a simple
majority in J&K? Why has the State produced a series of hung assemblies in
the last three elections? The answers remain elsewhere; the hung assembly is
only a manifestation of a deeper problem, and just should not be seen as a
Saffron Wave, or Modi sweep, or PDP resurgence.
Second major issue facing the new
government in J&K and relatively another new one in New Delhi, is to break
the political cycle between the State and Union governments. The issue is not
whether the government in J&K is a coalition partner of the government in
New Delhi; it is rather, how the two governments work in tandem in breaking the
cycle of non-movement in crucial issues. Successful elections in J&K,
formation of government, promise of movement between New Delhi and J&K,
some movements and slogans on cross-LoC CBMs, stalemate, slow performance (if
not non-performance) of the government within J&K, disappointment, and the
breakdown – has been the general pattern in the last fifteen years.
How to break the above cycle, and
pursue a straight path? If the civil societies within J&K will have to come
together to address the imbalance question within J&K, the civil societies
in J&K and the rest of India will have to come together and discuss how to
break the set pattern. Unfortunately, not only the political parties, even the
civil societies on both sides of the Lakhanpur border post have invented myths
that suit their narrative and does not understand the other.
Rest of India blissfully thinks that
a successful election in J&K means the rejection of separatism and
terrorism. Peace is measured in terms of absence of violence and the number of
people killed or not killed in a day. On the other hand, J&K, especially
the Valley is angry about anything and everything and points finger at New
Delhi on every ills, with less or no introspection. Both the societies have
created an artificial screen with inward looking script, reinforced by their
own media perpetuating the monologue about each other. For the agencies and
political parties, such a difference and screen fits their primary narrative
and prevent them from breaking the cycle.
Else, there will be more Standing
Committees, Working Groups and Interlocutors, running in a cyclical path.
Perhaps, this is where the media, think tanks, research institutes and
Universities could come in, and even join hands in preparing a framework, that
would break the above cycle. Unfortunately, the above institutions – be it in
J&K or in New Delhi, have been critiquing whatever is happening, without
succeeding in providing an alternative. And the civil societies within J&K
and across Lakhanpur post get carried away by daily developments and miss the
big picture.
Let us sincerely hope, researchers
and columnists do not have to write a similar commentary next December on our
ability to break the cycle. There have been multiple false starts. Hope the new
year and new governments in J&K and New Delhi achieve a sustainable
breakthrough.
*D Suba Chandran
Director, IPCS
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