August 21, 2015
The
U.S. government will withhold certification of Pakistan’s counter-terrorism
operations against the Haqqani network.
The
United States government will not certify Pakistan’s counter-terrorism
operations in North Waziristan over recent months as adequately damaging to the
Haqqani network, a U.S.-designated terror group. The U.S. Department of Defense
has reportedly notified the Pakistani embassy in Washington of the
development, according to a report by Dawn. The non-certification of
the Pakistani counter-terror campaign, known as Operation Zarb-e-Azb, will
block the release of a new tranche of U.S. financial assistance for the
Pakistani military from the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). CSF support had been
extended for a year with a specific stipulation that the U.S. Department of
Defense would certify the effectiveness of Pakistani military operations in
North Waziristan against the Haqqani network.
The
development would drive a major wedge between the United States and Pakistan,
two allies who have grown apart over their divergent interests and priorities
in stabilizing the broader Afghan-Pakistan border. Beyond the financial
implications of the blocked CSF tranche, the development will deal Islamabad a
politically damaging blow. As the Dawn report notes, given the
recent deterioration in ties with Kabul amid allegations from the Afghan
president, Ashraf Ghani, that Pakistani has inadequately reigned in
cross-border terrorists, including militants affiliated with the Haqqani
network, the U.S. government’s decision to withhold certification vindicate
Afghan perceptions.
The
suspension of the next CSF tranche, once confirmed, will certainly sour
U.S.-Pakistan ties, which haven’t been quite normal since 2011, when the United
States’ most wanted terrorist, Osama bin Laden, was killed by U.S. commandos in
a raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan. With Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s
scheduled state visit planned for October, Washington will have some time to
work out their differences. The extent to which the CSF tranche suspension will
affect Pakistan’s defense spending is unclear—reports earlier this year suggested
that Islamabad had counted “payment from the United States’ coalition support
fund for coalition forces in Afghanistan who are using Pakistani territory for
logistic support” as part of its overall budget. Pakistan received last month’s tranche of $337 million from
the United States, though suspension now will mean Islamabad will fall short of
receiving the expected $1.5 billion in CSF aid for the current fiscal year.
In a
coincidence of timing, reports that the U.S. government would withhold
certification of Pakistan’s counter-terrorism operations came as Pakistan and
Russia concluded a major defense deal for the sale of four Mi-35 Hind attack
helicopters. As I noted last year, Russia lifted its
self-imposed arms embargo on weapons deliveries to Pakistan, taking advantage,
in part, of Islamabad’s recognition of souring ties with the United States and
Moscow’s own search for new defense customers. The Mi-35 deal could lead to a
broader Pakistan-Russia defense relationship but there will be some constraints
for the two sides as they seek to expand cooperation, particularly Russia’s
significantly broader defense commercial relationship with India.
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