Are
Russia Pakistan And China Staging An Intervention In Afghanistan?
By Polina Tikhonova March 6, 2017
Pakistan has warned the U.S. to sort out the “total mess” in Afghanistan, and if it doesn’t,
Russia will. Moscow could penetrate Central and South Asia and stage a
Syrian-style intervention in Afghanistan, the Pakistan military warns.
A senior source within the Pakistan Army is reportedly telling
U.S. President Donald Trump’s new generals that Russia could sort out the
“total mess” in Afghanistan if the U.S. and its allies fail to stop the advance
of ISIS and the Taliban.
The unnamed Pakistani source told The Telegraph that if ISIS and the
Taliban keep destabilizing Afghanistan at the current rate, Russia could stage
the intervention on the pretext of protecting itself and its allies in the
region. The source said the U.S. is “losing control” in the region after the significant
decrease of Western troops operating in Afghanistan.
Is Russia planning an Afghanistan intervention with China and
Pakistan?
ISIS and the Taliban continue to gaining strength in the region,
and last month they pushed their chaos into neighboring Pakistan by killing
nearly 200 people in a string of violent terrorist attacks. Now, the Pakistani
source warned that Russia could intervene in Afghanistan
with full force.
The death toll in Afghanistan is on the rise, with the United
Nations reporting last month that nearly 3,500 Afghan civilians died in the
deadly conflict last year – the highest death roll in several years. Russia has
repeatedly voiced its concerns over the volatile situation on Afghan soil but
has so far not announced plans to intervene directly.
However, last month Russia invited China and Pakistan to
trilateral talks to discuss Afghanistan – which may have been the foundation
that would open doors for sending Russian troops to Afghanistan. Interestingly,
the U.S. and India – two key players on battling ISIS and the Taliban
resurgence in Afghanistan – were not invited to the talks.
Chinese troops already operating in Afghanistan
Multiple evidence-backed reports, however, indicate that Chinese
troops are already operating inside Afghanistan. While details about China’s
involvement in the war-torn country remain vague, many experts suspect that
China and Russia – and possibly also Pakistan – are planning to play a much
greater role in Afghanistan once the U.S. and NATO troops leave the country.
Since 2015, the U.S. has kept about 8,000 troops on Afghan soil,
but there are reported plans to reduce that number to less than 1,000 in 2017.
But that was the Pentagon’s withdrawal plan under President Barack Obama, while
Trump has yet to outline his policies on Afghanistan, Pakistan and the region
as a whole.
Afghanistan “slipping out of control”
The Pakistan military source also revealed that the country
recently held a series of high-level discussions with U.S. Secretary of Defense
James Mattis and Resolute Support Mission Commander Gen John Nicholson.
Last month, Gen. Nicholson publicly admitted that Afghan forces
are cornered by the Taliban militants. The unnamed source in the Pakistan
military now says that Pakistan has repeatedly warned both Gen. Nicholson and
Mattis that Afghanistan is “slipping out of control,” and if the U.S. fails to
deal with the extremism and terrorism threat in the country, the Trump
administration will have “a huge crisis on its hands.”
“Da’ish is also developing there, and if they leave Syria and
Iraq, the next place for them to gather in is Afghanistan,” the Pakistan army
source reportedly told the U.S.
Afghan army unable to deal with terrorists
While relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan remain tense –
especially after last month’s terrorist attacks in Pakistan, which Islamabad
blamed on the Afghan government – Pakistan continues to criticize Kabul for
failing to guard its side of the border, from where terrorists are said to be
launching their attacks against both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The Pakistani source also reportedly explained why Kabul’s
anti-terrorism efforts have been so ineffective.
“There are 350,000 troops in the Afghan army, but only about
20,000 are capable of combat missions,” the source said, adding that there are
about 1,000 generals within the Afghan army, but most of those gens were
appointed only because of their “tribal affiliations” rather than skills to
combat the rise of extremism in the country. “The problem is that you can’t
teach a donkey to gallop.”
Russia fears U.S. is using ISIS for its own purposes
But America’s inability to eliminate the extremism and terrorist
threats in Afghanistan could play a cruel joke on U.S. interests in the region, as Russia
and China are said to be prepared to get involved in the deadly conflict to
prevent ISIS and the Taliban from spreading closer to their borders.
The Pakistani army source reportedly said that the Russian
government fears that the U.S. could be using ISIS as “a plot to destabilize
its backyard,” which explains why the West’s anti-terrorism efforts in the
region were doomed from the very beginning. Russia, which is often praised for
its counter-terrorism operation in Syria, could use its fears as an excuse to
get militarily involved on Afghan soil.
Russia establishes contacts with the Taliban
During the trilateral Russia-China-Pakistan talks last month,
Moscow called for dialogue with the Taliban, as Beijing, Moscow and Islamabad
all seem to agree that peace in Afghanistan can be achieved only through
negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
Russia has already reportedly started back-channel contacts with
the Taliban, which may be the starting point of its intervention in
Afghanistan. Establishing those contacts could help Moscow build proxy assets
in Afghanistan in order to extend its military operation from Syria into the
other war-torn country.
Would the U.S. stop their military intervention?
One could argue that Russia hosted trilateral talks with China
and Pakistan with the exclusion of India, Afghanistan and the U.S. for a
reason. Both China and Pakistan are equally interested in halting the terrorist
threats emanating from there.
Pakistan recently experienced firsthand the deadly threat of
terrorism and extremism, while China wants to ensure that no threats obstruct
the implementation of its ambitions with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC) project. Clearing Afghanistan from terrorism would also prevent the East
Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which is associated with ISIS and the
Taliban, from destabilizing China’s Xinjiang province.
If Russia, China and Pakistan announce a joint military
operation against terrorists on Afghan soil, will anyone be there to stop them?
Has the Trump administration made up its mind about Afghanistan and the region
as a whole? Or when exactly are Trump’s generals planning to outline their plan
to halt ISIS and the Taliban from further advances? Russia, China and Pakistan
seem to be losing their patience by the day.
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