Why Pakistanis are against
the CPEC, Dr Shabir Choudhry
London 26 March 2017
Sad thing about the CPEC and its projects is the lack of transparency in
the whole matter. If people ask questions they are branded as ‘traitors’ and
‘saboteurs’ without any considerations to their genuine concerns and
apprehensions. People who will pay back this huge loan have right to ask
questions. People whose lives will be adversely affected by this mega project
also have right to ask questions.
People of all regions need to know what is there for them. They are not
interested in what is there for Punjab, what is there for political leaders of
Pakistan, and how much profit Pakistani and Chinese businessmen will make; and how
banks of China who will become even richer. Even the former Pakistani President
and Chief of Pakistan’s Peoples Party claimed that ‘commission’ is the main
motive in building roads.
‘Former president Asif Ali
Zardari on Thursday took aim at the incumbent government and alleged that the
Sharif duo was only interested in constructing roads to pocket commission’. 1
People of Pakistan need to know what are their financial commitments to
China because of the CPEC. What are the terms and conditions of the loan
payment? What are the tax concessions offered to China? Will their lorries pay
any toll or not? Will there be any tax or custom on the Chinese goods? Who will
provide security to the Special Economic Zones where only the Chinese companies
will display their goods? Will these Zones also be used as ‘Chinese enclaves’
inside Pakistan, as the Chinese staff and their families need to live
somewhere. They will need to eat, socialise, their kids need to go to schools
etc. Who will provide security to them, most probably the Chinese? Who will pay
for the security of these ‘Chinese enclaves’?
What about the maintenance of these projects and who will pay the costs?
Has government of Pakistan or they relevant departments considered these
matters, if they have then why they are not sharing this information with the
people they govern?
It must be noted that the western China which
is linked to Gilgit Baltistan is under developed with only 6% of the
population. This region does not have much to export. It means vast quantity of
goods will come from the developed part of China. Islamabad based Pakistani
writer Abdul Majeed, says:
‘a container can be shipped to/from any
port in China and Karachi or Dubai for $300-$400 whereas it would cost
$5,000-$7,000 to carry it through rails/roads for transit through Pakistani
ports. No businessman will shift his cargo from the sea to land route.
This is why the transit trade agreement between Pakistan, China, Kazakhstan and
Kyrgyzstan that allows the free use of Pakistani ports has been dormant since
1995. Expansion in world trade was only made possible by cheap shipping. Old
land routes could not survive the competition. Efforts to revive them by
slogans like one road one belt are not likely to succeed’. 2
What does
this suggest? The CPEC has some hidden agenda, hence so much secrecy associated
with it. If there is secret military and strategic agenda, as I have explained
in detail in one long article, then it is foolish to expect others to sit idle
and don’t do anything.
Increasingly
the Pakistani thinking class is getting polarised, some people strongly
supporting the CPEC and the other opposing it. Under the available information both sides
may not be able persuade the other; and they will continue to hold on to their
respective positions. However, another Pakistani from Lahore, Anjum
Altaf, who is a fellow at the Consortium for Development Policy Research in
Lahore writes:
‘Citizens responsible for the debt
liabilities have a right to demand this information and expect it to be
provided. What are the reasons for the secrecy? What is there to hide? The
numbers that are filtering out in dribs and drabs on guaranteed rates of return
are not particularly reassuring. The mere fact that information is not being
fully shared is a major cause for doubt. People are naturally apprehensive in
the absence of transparency’. He further
says, The CPEC will surely change the fortunes of ‘a few thousand
individuals in Pakistan. It is unlikely to be a game changer for the Pakistani
people – just like the Suez Canal did not’. 3
It
will take many years before the whole project completes, in 2030. Some projects
under ‘early harvest, especially related to energy may be completed by 2018,
because they were designed to produce electricity and help Nawaz Sharif win the
next general elections due to be held in 2018. Other projects are facing many
hurdles and are many years from completion.
However, the government wanted to reward the
previous army Chief for being a ‘good boy’ - not toppling the elected
government, so to give him credit for the CPEC they started the first caravan
under heavy military protection a few weeks before his retirement. Not much
economic activity has taken place after that, but the government and the
Chinese are already celebrating success of the CPEC, may be for the domestic
consumption.
Another Pakistani Samina Tippu, a student at
Pakistan’s prestigious National Defense University (NDU) researching for Mphil,
in
her article ‘CPEC Conspiracy Theories of Success and Failure’ raises some
serious questions. She expresses her
serious concern on:
‘lack of transparency about
costing of various projects included in the CPEC has led to all kinds of
suspicions of mega corruption, extent of kickbacks, commissions and hidden
payments. There are also reports, circulating in Islamabad’s diplomatic and
development community that Chinese companies are being compelled to sublet
contracts to cronies and front-men of “who’s who” in Pakistan and built in
profits are being added to the cost of projects. 4
Samina Tippu asks how can a mega project of this
nature can succeed in 21st century where there is no transparency;
and when it is riddled with allegations of corruption and nepotism. Any
criticism by national or international experts is rejected as a ‘conspiracy’.
In view of the conspiracy mantra, the vast majority of Pakistanis fail to see
the real game plan and interests of the Pakistani elite. They dare not question
the elite and what they are doing in name of the national interest. She asks:
‘Will CPEC be able
to change the fortune of citizens of this country or western china or will it
follow the footprints of Panama and Suez Canals – that became pawns in regional
and international power games. Considering the potential sabotage activities of
the powers across the fault lines: India and the US one wonders if CPEC’s
majestic promise will start to fail even before its proper take off’. 5
In view of some
Pakistanis the CPEC may remain a fantasy, because the Pakistani leadership
lacks ‘sincerity’ and ‘patriotism’; and above all they are not immune from the
influence of foreign countries. Many times, in the past, good projects were
abandoned because of the pressure of the outside powers. Also, there is a
serious concern that due to the CPEC Pakistan may lose political and economic
sovereignty, even though the army leadership and the civilian government are on
the same page on the issues related to the CPEC.
It is also feared
that Pakistan will lose its political and economic sovereignty, owing to
excessive foreign debt as happened with the owners of Suez Canal and Sri Lanka.
However, people of faith and conviction believe that there is always a way
forward in the face of any opposition.
Hurmat Ali Shah is also critical of the Pakistan
federal government and tries to advance the narrative of Pakistani provinces. He, in his article
Deconstructing the ‘conspiracy against CPEC’
argument’,
writes: ‘The
Pakistani state has its bag full of tricks to take home its point of
concentrating all development in one region of Punjab, and depriving small
provinces and downtrodden regions of the country of their basic
constitutional right of development’. 6
Balochistan will not get any energy projects; and KPK will get only one
in Haripur. All the rest is for Punjab and Sindh; and when the deprived provinces
complain, he says they are accused of promoting ‘provincialism’, in actual
fact, it is ‘federalism’; and all provinces expect to receive equality and fair
treatment.
It is sad that any kind of dissent over inequality or wrong doing of the
state is suppressed with an iron fist ‘in
name of national interest’. In Hurmat Ali Shah’s view, this wrong behaviour of
the State in name of national interest ‘will create further mistrust’,
especially when genuine demands of provinces are termed as 'petty
provincialism'. If criticism from critics and provinces persists then they are
labelled as traitors and ‘working at behest of enemies of Pakistan’. 7
He further writes: ‘On top of that comes the acrobatics
of federal ministers who say at one press-conference that western route is the
priority route, while at the other say that both routes will be completed at
the same time and still at another say that CPEC will be completed by 2030. Who
is making CPEC controversial and who is conspiring against the federal
unity of Pakistan’? 8
To avoid further
confusion and misunderstandings it is imperative that the Pakistan government
make public all the documents related to the CPEC. Without transparency and
accountability, mistrust and bitterness can increase which can be harmful to
the CPEC and the federation of Pakistan.
Rebellious views from Balochistan
Dr
Allah Nazar, at one time, practised medicine and served humanity; but now he is
hiding in mountains with a gun in his hand fighting the Pakistani troops. Colin
Freeman, who met him and interviewed him writes: ‘The Baloch rebel leader standing in the way of
Pakistan’s economic goals’. Dr Allah Nazar is ‘very high on Islamabad’s
long list of wanted men. For a decade and a half, he has been the leader of the
Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), which campaigns — and kills — for the
independence of Pakistan’s vast south-western province’. Rebels claim to have killed
around ‘2,000 security force members, although the government
puts the figure at nearer 1,200’. 9
Lt Gen Aamir Riaz, head
of the army’s Southern Command, boasted that in 2016, ‘some 800 fighters had
surrendered under a government reconciliation scheme’; and he is optimistic
that "Things should improve for Balochistan as development comes
along….I don’t say this place is perfect, but it isn’t Iraq or Syria."
The Pakistani government and, especially the army sources
suggest that everything is under control, but death of 1200 security force
members and surrender of 800 fighters tells a different story. It proves that
it is not a simple law and order matter; or some misguided people creating
trouble on behest of the foreign powers.
May be from Pakistan’s standards, death of 1,200 0r 2,000
ordinary security force members is not very serious matter, but in all
civilised countries and in countries where governments and officials are
accountable for their actions, this is alarming figure.
These people were not killed in a war with another
country. They were killed by other Pakistanis who did not like what Islamabad
government is doing in Balochistan. To make it easier for readers to understand
that in the war of 1971, in which Pakistan lost East Pakistan and more than
90,000 army personnel were imprisoned, only 86 Indian soldiers were killed.
Similarly, very few Israeli army personnel lose their lives in wars, because
their government highly values them.
It is possible one day he will, like
his other fellow countrymen, will be killed by a Pakistani bullet or an air
attack. Pakistan, at one time, claimed that they have killed Dr Allah Nazar. He
belonged to an impoverished town of Mashkay, and had a stable and prosperous
life. But, one needs to investigate why this medical doctor abandoned his
stable life and went to mountains to fight the Pakistani army – please don’t
say he did this because of money and India provided the money. Doctors in
Pakistan are not poor.
Colin Freeman claims that men like Dr
Nazar are the main obstacles ‘in the way of one of Pakistan’s most important
goals — the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC — which will run right
through their homeland’. 10
Dr Allah Nazar further claims, ‘Already,
construction zones for CPEC have turned into war zones….Since 2014, at least 44
members of the Frontier Works Organisation, an army-run construction firm
spearheading the work, have been killed by separatist bombs and improvised
explosive devices (IEDs)…We are attacking the CPEC project every day," Dr
Nazar told Reuters last September, which also confounded Islamabad’s claims to
have killed him in a raid the year before. "It is aimed to turn the Baloch
population into a minority’. 11
Call them Baloch rebels or separatists, they have very
serious resentment with what Islamabad, and the army is doing in their
homeland. They are seriously worried that Balochistan will become home of a
large number of Chinese civil and military personnel. They are also concerned
that the CPEC will result in settling ‘hundreds of thousands of Punjabis from
the rest of Pakistan, diluting the Balochi identity in the name of progress’.
Sana Baloch, who belongs
to a moderate Balochistan National Party warns that if the CPEC leads to ‘Balochistan
being overrun with outsiders, it will turn Gwadar not into another Dubai but
another Karachi’, meaning there will be unrest and bloodshed.
He further said: "I
have no sympathy for the armed groups, but we fear the coastal region will be
taken from the hands of Baloch people," he said. "For the last 40
years, Balochistan has been completely in Islamabad’s control, and used as a
dumping ground for political garbage. That must end." 12
Mir Suleiman Ahmedzai, Khan of Kalat
also expressed his views in various Seminars held in the 34th
Session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. Also, he gave interviews to
different news agencies. While speaking to ANI, Khan of Kalat branded China and
Pakistan ‘plunderers’. He asserted:
‘that Balochistan strongly welcomes India's assistance in stopping both
nations with their nefarious plans in executing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. CPEC has no developmental value whatsoever and is simply one
'occupier' taking the help of another 'occupier' in plundering the region which
is rich in natural resources. We are not going to enjoy anything, nor are we
going to benefit from it. We are not even being asked as it is our land. They
are coming as plunderers and we will stop them in whichever way, maybe with the
help of your people and friends". He
was referring to India. 13
While replying to Pakistani claims that the
CPEC will provide new jobs and development, Khan of Kalat said:
"Since the past 70
years Pakistan has claimed a lot of things. They are big liars and will
keep on lying. Even when it comes to terrorism, be it in their own country or
their neighbours." 14
Another
Baloch political and human rights activist, Munir Mengal President of Baloch
Voice Foundation, said:
‘The CPEC was a 'strategic design' by Pakistan and China to loot Balochistan's resources and eliminate their
culture and identity. Most of the people have the same concern that is design
is disastrous to the people. This conference was organised to show the
international body that there will be no benefit from the CPEC project and all of us will be eliminated." 15
Abdul Nawaz Bugti,
representative of the Baloch Republican Party (BRP) also addressed the 34th
Session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva; and requested to UN to appoint a
Special Rapporteur for Pakistan. He gave details of human rights’ violations in
Balochistan; and strongly criticized the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC). He said what Pakistan did in Balochistan was ‘genocide in Pakistan’s largest and resource-rich
province of Balochistan’.
Abdul
Nawaz Bugti further said: ‘Balochistan is not a legitimate part of Pakistan.
It was illegally occupied and it is treated as a colony where the Pakistani
occupational states subject the people to extreme atrocities and exploit their
land and natural resources… Mass graves are being found in Balochistan,
which is clear evidence of Pakistan war crimes. Just two weeks ago, another
mass grave was uncovered in Dera Bugti while scores of women and children were
among those killed in army operations there in recent weeks." 16
Baloch
political and human rights activists claim that around 20,000 people are
missing, believed to be ‘abducted by the Pakistani forces’. The victims are
generally the educated Baloch people, for example, political activists,
teachers, students, lawyers, intellectuals etc. In Balochistan, the educated people
become targets of agencies, because these people are more aware of their rights
and persuade people to fight against oppression.
Abdul
Nawaz Bugti further said:
‘The international community has unfortunately turned
a blind eye towards the systematic genocide taking place in Balochistan. Some
countries, for example China, has joined hands with the Pakistani state to
exploit the land, sea and resources of Balochistan. Pakistan and China have
officially become crime partners in the name of so-called CPEC, which connects
China’s landlocked region to the middle-east via Baluchistan’s deep seaport
Gwadar." 17
Founder
of American Friends of Balochistan, Ahmar Mastikhan said: ‘Islamabad
has thrown to the winds at least 25 out of the 30 articles of the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights in Balochistan. The execution style, extrajudicial
killings, arbitrary arrests and detentions, enforced disappearances, and kill
and dump of thousands of Baloch, use of degrading forms of torture such as
feeding feces and sodomy of the Baloch activists have taken place in the last
12 years and is still continuing." 18
Another Baloch political activist Javed
Mengal said, ‘Balochistan is in state of war’, and added ‘that the
Pakistan Army is forcefully displacing people from their land in name of the
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A curfew was imposed in the region
along the routes of CPEC to show to the world that there is peace in the region
when two containers loaded with project goods were arriving in Pakistan from
China, but, Balochistan is in state of war.’ 19
Baloch nationalists genuinely believe that
the CPEC will exploit their resource-rich province; and the local people will
be reduced to a minority in their own land. In various Baloch seminars and protests
popular slogans were "China Hands-off Balochistan", "Stop Baloch
Genocide" and "No to CPEC".
Emotions aside, the Baloch rebels are not in a
position to combat strong army of Pakistan; and now they have Chinese strength
behind them as well. China will have a strong reason to protect its investment,
and use its military muscle to control the situation. Some experts believe that
one of the reason why Pakistan is so eager to have CPEC operational is that it
will deter India from any military adventure against Pakistan, when China is
standing with them to protect the CPEC and protect more than 50 billion dollars
investment.
What alarmed me was a view of one Western
speaker at the seminar during the UN Human Rights Council 34th Session.
The learned lady, Claudia Wadlics, while talking about potential problems
resulting from the CPEC, Pakistan and China, said:
‘So how can this problem
become solved? So how do we propose economic and efficient designs and
strategies which will bring social justice to Balochs, Pashtuns, Kashmiris and
Sindhis? First, there must be founded a ‘Government in Exile’ by the Baloch
leaders and the Khan of Kalat; perhaps in India. Second, this government
must be acknowledged by India and the US and perhaps, also by Russia, with
provision for the countries of Europe following. Media around the world will be
informed about the legality of an independent Balochistan. The Security Council
of UN will face only China and Pakistan’s vetoes’.
The guest speaker
developed this theme further and said if Balochi and Sindhi coasts are under
military control of Pakistan and China, then Baloch Government in exile can ‘legally
call for the help of the US and Indian Governments, perhaps Russia too, to
intervene and secure Gwadar port’.
Soon after the seminar, I
managed to speak to her for a minute, and exchanged visiting cards. She has
sent me a copy of her speech. Title of her speech is ‘Economic and Strategic
Designs and Social Justice – A Global Talk Regarding the CPEC’. I shall post the speech on
my blog soon.
What
does this indicate? Is there a plan to establish an exile government of
Balochistan? Will that government have support of countries like America,
Russia and India? What will be the result of this? Is the region going to
become a battleground in future?
China employ’s Blackwater to protect the CPEC
China is investing this huge money not
because they like Pakistanis, but because it is in national interest of China.
During my recent visit to Geneva to attend the UN Human Rights 34th
Session, I attended one seminar on CPEC. One guest was from Chinese area which
the guest speaker called Chinese Occupied East Turkistan. He said the CPEC will
start from his homeland – East Turkistan, against the wishes and interests of
the local population. He said local people will resist that.
That is very interesting. The CPEC will
start from an occupied territory, East Turkistan, it will enter another
occupied territory called Gilgit Baltistan. From there it will enter Pakistani
province of KPK, and will end in Balochistan, which in view of the local people
is also occupied.
China, it looks, is also worried about
sabotage of the CPEC route. Their army and para military troops have great
experience in ruthlessly crushing public rallies and opposition; but they felt
necessary to hire some foreign troops or rather terrorists to crush opposition
and protect the route.
According Chinese Global Times, the world infamous
organisation Blackwater, which is now operating under a new name Academi, will
establish bases in Xinjiang to support
and protect the One Belt and One Road initiative. Call it
Blackwater or Academi, it is essentially a ‘private military company’, and ‘provides
executive security services and specialized training.’ Erik Prince,
Executive Chairman of the firm told the Chinese Global Times that:
‘Frontier Services Group (FSG), a company
that helps businesses operating in frontier markets to overcome complex
security, logistics and operational challenges, plans to build two operational
bases in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and Southwest
China's Yunnan Province’. 20
The company has more than 5,000 highly trained personnel working
nine different countries. It also played an important role in Iraq war.
It is believed that the Chinese companies desperately
needed overseas protection for their investment and their personnel. Li Jiang,
Director of the International Affairs Department in the China Security and
Protection Group, said the Chinese security service companies lacked skills and
advanced management theories. As a result, they hired ‘experts’ of Blackwater
to support them.
The Executive Chairman, while explaining about the new
operation in China told Bloomberg in 2015, that the main function of the FSG
was to provide the Chinese customers ‘logistic support to get in and out of
African danger zones…Africa is an important destination for Chinese
investment ... We believe our team's local knowledge will greatly benefit
Chinese clients’. 21
Eric Prince further said: "in late 2016, FSG
expanded its geographic focus from purely Africa to include the
Northwest and Southwest corridors of the One Belt and One
Road initiative."
The following countries include in the Northwest
corridor:
Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan,
Pakistan,
Afganistan.
And the following countries include in the Southwest
corridor:
Myanmar,
Thailand,
Laos,
Cambodia.
He further said: “the planned new facility in China’s Yunnan Province will
allow FSG to be able to better serve companies in the Southwest corridor.
Subsequently, FSG will open a training facility in Xinjiang to serve businesses
in the Northwest corridor.” 22
The Spokesman for the FSG, Wang Dawei said,
‘the Yunnan base will be operating this year while the one in
Xinjiang is projected to start operation in 2018’.
Readers must take this
fact in to consideration that America is a neighbour of every country, and they
smell danger to their ‘national interest’ from miles and take appropriate
measure to eliminate it. They know China will be a serious danger to their
hegemony in future; and they are working for many years to contain China.
Despite the contain
China policy, America does not want a war with China. So, the best policy is to
support India, another emerging economic and military power. Tension and
competing interests of various countries, including Japan and America in South
China Sea could also lead to some kind of confrontation, which they have
sensibly avoided so far.
Other region of
conflict and competition is Indian Ocean. In this region India also has a great
interest; and their strategic experts believe that the CPEC has hidden agenda
of encircling India and endanger India’s national interest in this region. This
is where America and India have a common interest. They also have a common
interest in Afghanistan and in Central Asia.
It is logical for
America to support India in every possible way that a strong India can share
some responsibilities in the region. If China and Pakistan can conclude strong
economic and military agreements, then nothing stops America and India doing
same to advance a common agenda.
If the CPEC completes without any hurdles it will surely
strengthen China economically and militarily. Their influence in South Asia, in
Central Asia, Arabian Sea, in the Indian Ocean and in many other countries will
immensely improve. And if all goes well, Pakistan can also become stronger,
especially when China is at its back to protect and support Pakistan.
This scenario will not suit India, America and many other
countries. If weak Pakistan keeps on interfering in affairs of neighbours and
exporting terrorism, extremism and hatred, then a strong Pakistan will bravely
continue to call shots in India, in Kashmir and in Afghanistan. A strong
Pakistan will also find courage to say no to America, Britain, Saudi Arabia and
others when it suits them. This made in China courage and leverage won’t be
appreciated by these countries.
Won’t it be in the interest of these countries to plan a
counter strategy to protect and promote their interests? And if they do that,
won’t this lead to some kind of military confrontation with more than one party
on each side. Does it mean regions like Gilgit Baltistan, KPK, Balochistan and
Afghanistan can become a battleground for the competing interests of various
countries.
So, I agree, the CPEC is a game changer, but in whose
favour the game will change, it is too early to say.
References:
3.
Ref: Questions on CPEC, The News, 19 March 2017 https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/193213-Questions-on-CPEC
4.
https://www.globalvillagespace.com/2017/02/01/cpec-conspiracy-theories-success-failure/ February 1, 2017
5.
Ibid
6.
The
Nation, 09 January 2017. http://nation.com.pk/blogs/09-Jan-2016/deconstructing-the-conspiracy-against-cpec-argument
7. The Nation, 09 January 2017.
8.
Ibid
10.
Ibid
11.
Ibid
12.
Ibid
14.
Ibid
15.
Ibid
17.
Ibid
19.
Ibid
21.
Ibid
22.
Ibid
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