It will be minus four, and not minus
three.
Dr Shabir Choudhry London
16 August 2017
The Pakistani military establishment, which is the real rulers of
Pakistan was not happy with powerful leaders who were in total control of their
parties with mass support. They understood that these leaders, despite their
vulnerabilities pretend to be invincible just because of the public support
they enjoyed.
It was decided that, at least, powers of Altaf Hussain, Asif Zardari and
Nawaz Sharif should be cut to size that they, either become irrelevant or
become manageable. It was not prudent to take all three of them at the same
time. Although in power and in control of his party, in their view, Asif
Zardari was in self destructive mode, and was not a potent threat to the system
they had under their thumb. To them, it was best to leave him alone; and only
create little hurdles to keep him under pressure.
However, they thought it was essential to sort out
Altaf Hussain, as he was the most troublesome; and in total control of MQM and
Karachi, which was a backbone of the Pakistani economy. Fearing what trouble
was moving towards Karachi, I told my friends and wrote an article on 5 December
2012, titled, ‘MQM
and the coming storm’. I said:
‘In my opinion, the MQM has seen its peak. In
future, people will only talk of their best days, as their decline has already
started. I have few friends in the ranks of the MQM and I told them last year
that the year 2012 will be very testing for them and that they would face wrath
of very powerful forces which would bring a disaster to Karachi. 1
After publication of this article I was invited for a dinner by senior
MQM leaders and we exchanged views on this article. They seemed convinced that
they were invincible. That aside, maybe, I will narrate some other time what
happened in Edgware where I dined with them.
Now we all know that MQM is under control and cut to a manageable size.
Altaf Hussain could have faced much more humiliation and more suffering, but
his skin was saved by the international establishment. It was agreed that let
the man live with some dignity; and let him die a natural death.
In the 2013 elections, the trained horse of Pasha and company was
convincingly beaten; and he personally felt humiliated. To date he has not
overcome that embarrassment.
Nawaz Sharif, after assuming office made a big mistake of General Musharraf’s
trial. The alarm bells rang in the GHQ and other Head Offices of the
establishment. They thought if Nawaz Sharif’s wings are not clipped he will become
an enormous threat to their hold on leverages of power and vested interests.
What happened after that we all know and I do not have to repeat it.
The establishment set up a number of traps for the Nawaz Sharif and his
government in Islamabad and in Lahore; among them were murders in Lahore,
Dharna one, Dharna two and many other things. From that day onwards Muslim
League N and both Sharifs became defensive nearly in all matters. Nawaz Sharif
kept on giving more space to avoid his Waterloo. Unfortunately, now he has very
little room to manoeuvre.
What has transpired over the past months clear indicates that the
establishment has taken a final decision to eradicate power and influence of
Nawaz Sharif. In their view if they don’t do it now, then Nawaz Sharif and his
family will become too powerful which is not good for them and Pakistani
democracy. If he is not sorted out now, he will surely win the next elections
scheduled to be held in 2018. Fear is that if he returns with a bigger majority
then he WILL strike at the power and influence of the establishment.
Imran Khan will be happy that with help of the establishment he has
nailed down Nawaz Sharif; and that will pave way for him to become the next
Prime Minister of Pakistan. Perhaps he is too naïve to understand that the
establishment has only used him as a pone to advance their agenda. They have
also shrewdly exposed Khan’s vulnerabilities to the thinking people of Pakistan.
They have built his image of an emotional, stubborn and unpredictable person.
He was a fast bowler, and he managed other ten people in the field; but his
temperament and erratic attitude is not suitable to govern a nuclear country
like Pakistan.
The establishment always feared that emotional and over ambitious Khan
may spoil their game, which could give Nawaz Sharif an opportunity to strike
first. They cleverly asked people like Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Ch. Sarwar to
join ranks of the PTI to keep him under some control. However, when he is in
front of a camera and holding a mike, despite the briefings, he says what he
likes.
After sorting out MQM, agenda of the establishment is to sort out Nawaz
Sharif. PPP is already contained to Sindh; and in disarray. If they replace
Asif Zardari with Bilawal, who can bring his new team. The final target will be
Mr Imran Khan. He will be disqualified, and people like Shah Mahmood Qureshi
and Ch. Sarwar will take care of the PTI. This means all four leaders, who
could potentially create problems will be out of way.
However, a fight with Nawaz Sharif is not over yet. Nawaz Sharif has
entrenched; and he will give a tough fight to the ‘conspirators’. This power
struggle can destabilise volatile polity of Pakistan; and can seriously damage
fragile economy of Pakistan. In power politics, people like Imran Khan and the
establishment do not care what is at stake. They want to achieve their targets,
no matter what it will cost to the country and the region.
Writer is a political analyst,
TV anchor and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Chairman South Asia
Watch and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:
Reference.
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