In recent times, Pakistani political and military leadership
has come around to the position where it is publicly accepting the fact that
General Zia’s policy of supporting private Jihadist networks in 1980s was
actually a fassad (turmoil) as according to them Jihad is sole domain of
the state. Not
only that. From General Musharraf’s “enlightened moderation” after 9/11 to the
Zarb-e-Azb and National Action Plan (NAP) of 2014 and Operation Radul Fassad of
2016, military and political campaigns were launched one after another with the
declared aim of eliminating the phenomenon of fassad. But unfortunately, the
country’s security establishment has stubbornly clung to an Afghan
policy which is totally based on the very evil which the
Pakistani state claims to be eradicating.
This policy is basically aimed at supporting Taliban to
fight a war of attrition against the Afghan state and society. By owning responsibility for the
recent brutal terrorist attacks in Afghan urban centres, Taliban have given up
even the pretence of being a serious political opposition of any sort. For
supporting the demolition squad of Taliban now practically amounts to
supporting the efforts for deconstructing the Afghan state and Afghan national
identity. The result is rise of animosity with Afghans and growth of
extremism and terrorism in the region without an end. Problem is that for
exporting Talibanisation to Afghanistan its production line in Pakistan has to
continue. That explains non implementation of NAP, active existence of the
so called proscribed organisations and “mainstreaming” of organisations working
for promotion of religious militancy.
Movers and shakers of the country’s Afghan
policy have always depended on the strategy of living in
denial. Non of the four wars fought in Afghanistan have ever been publicly
owned. But this
option is not available anymore. In the first week of March 2016, Mr. Sartaj
Aziz as Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Policy and National Security,
publicly and on record admitted the fact about presence of Afghan Taliban
leaders in Pakistan for the last so many years. Taliban’s “Emirate” revolves
around its Amir and the “ Emirate” is where Amir resides. So going by the
statement of the country’s top foreign policy and national security person,
Pakistan has been hosting the Amir. In the last one year when Pakistan claims
to have cleared its territory of all terrorists, US drones have been targeting
lower Kurram Agency to hit Afghan Taliban commanders. Out of 13 drone
strikes during the last one year, 9 have hit targets in Lower Kurram Agency and
4 have gone after targets in Waziristan. After most of the attacks, reports
appearing in Pakistani media confirm the death of important commanders of
Afghan Taliban. Which means sanctuaries of Afghan Taliban still exist inside
Pakistan. Now even in 2018 foreign terrorists are being attacked by foreign
drones in Pakistan. Ironically some Pakistani leaders reject the idea of
acting against Afghan Taliban on the ground that it will bring Afghan war into
Pakistan but that’s exactly what they are doing by providing safe heavens to
Taliban.
One is amazed to see some pro establishment media circles and analysts
in Pakistan gloating over the “successes” of Taliban in Afghanistan.
Interestingly these are the very people who will outrightly reject the reports
of the “infidel” western media on many subjects. But when the same western
media publishes reports about the growing activities of Taliban in Afghanistan
these “patriots” will enthusiastically quote such reports to prove the
“invincibility” of Taliban. It’s particularly disappointing to watch mentors of
Taliban celebrating these so called successes achieved through devastating
suicide bombings in various Afghan cities.
But this is a very myopic policy with potential for creating the
following serious security and political threats to Pakistan. One, the
experience of the last four decades has proved that the ascendency of religious
militancy in Afghanistan results in the rise of extremism and terrorism in
Pakistan. It was not long ago that local and international terrorist networks
were not only ruling FATA but they were expanding their control over different
districts in Malakand Division. Traders in Peshawar, Islamabad and many
other cities were forced to pay extortion money to Taliban. At one stage
according to credible experts 40 per cent of Karachi was under the influence of
Taliban. Why wouldn’t all this happen again?
Two, the growing Talibanisation of the region will undermine regional
peace creating serious security challenges to regional economic development
projects such as CPEC, TAPI and CASA. Taliban is basically a security threat
for this region which includes, apart from others, China and Russia also. US
did topple Taliban’s regime in Afghanistan for providing sanctuary to OBL but
US didn’t go for their total elimination which would have included elimination
of their sanctuaries in Pakistan. Americans are angry at Taliban for killing
their soldiers in Afghanistan and they would try to push them back to that
extent. In the final analysis the task of tackling terrorist threat
emanating from Taliban will be left to regional players including China
and Russia.
Three, naked and brazen Pakistani support for Taliban is creating
immense hatred against Pakistan among the Afghan people. This process has
particularly intensified after recent horrendous terrorist attacks in Afghan
cities for which Taliban publicly claimed responsibility. As if this wasn’t
enough the policy of pushing out Afghan refugees for creating chaos in
Afghanistan in support of Taliban’s war is taking this animosity to new
heights. It is even worse than the hostility that existed between Sikh Punjabi
state and Durrani Afghanistan in the 19th century.
Four, the aforementioned bankrupt Afghan
policy is creating alienation among Pashtuns in Pakistan
because it is bringing war with large scale death and destruction, displacement
ghettoisation to them. Five, the rise of local IS or Daish is yet another
existential threat capable of turning this region into a battlefield by
attracting players from outside. By now it is quite clear that far from
being the actual branch of Middle Eastern IS it is just a side show of Taliban.
It is meant to make Taliban look good by taking responsibility for some
“undesirable” terrorist attacks. In eastern Afghanistan most of Daish’s cadres
are from Pakistan and in northern Afghanistan it’s ranks are manned by Central
Asian fighters. It’s needless to say that factors mentioned above originate
from Pakistan’s flawed Afghan policy and they constitute an
explosive mix. Again it’s not a coincidence that political government in
Pakistan has been rendered totally incapacitated to have any say in foreign
policy.
Express Tribune, 03/02/18
The writer is a retired Senator and an analyst of regional affairs.
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