Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan, ZAHID HUSSAIN

Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan

ZAHID HUSSAIN

July 13, 201822:23

133The return to Pakistan of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter to face their respective prison sentences has changed the country’s political dynamics ahead of its parliamentary elections on July 25.

Behind bars, Sharif will likely become more powerful politically, which could enhance the electoral prospects of his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

That Sharif would return from London — where he was visiting his ailing wife who is undergoing treatment there — was never in doubt, but there was a question over the timing. Many in his party would have preferred him to come back sooner.

Sharif’s decision to return and face jail for his graft conviction is intended not only to keep his own political legacy alive, but also his daughter’s political future. Maryam Nawaz — who has also been convicted and sentenced to seven years in prison — has already made her mark on Pakistani politics.

And there is a battle over the future of the party’s leadership. Sharif’s brother Shahbaz is the current party president, so the party leadership has already jumped to another branch of the family tree. 

However, while Maryam is out of these elections, her supporters believe that time is on her side, and that she will ultimately take control of the party.

But both father and daughter are looking at a long legal and political battle. They each face two more graft charges, for a start, and there is a question over whether they can get their sentences suspended on appeal. Their fates could hinge on how the PML-N fares in this month’s elections.

Various opinion polls show that Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party has significantly reduced the PML-N’s lead, and suggest it is going to be a very close election. The battleground is Punjab. While the region has traditionally been a PML-N stronghold, the PTI is now seriously challenging that domination. A significant number of voters remain undecided, though, and the PML-N is hoping that Sharif’s return could help them swing in its favor.

One thing Sharif’s return is almost guaranteed to affect is his already thorny relationship with Pakistan’s military establishment.

The day before his departure for Pakistan, at a press conference in London, Sharif launched his most scathing attack yet on the generals, accusing them of trying to manipulate the elections, and of being behind his removal from power and conviction on graft charges.

Sharif’s relationship with the military was certainly not good, but it was not the only reason for his downfall. His trial lasted almost two years, beginning in the Supreme Court and later moving to an anti-corruption court. His relentless attack on the judiciary has not helped his cause. But Sharif claims he is being punished for trying to assert civilian supremacy in the country.

Although Sharif has long blamed the military for his plight, he has generally been restrained in his previous criticism. So this latest no-holds-barred attack — naming the generals allegedly involved in what he described as “pre-poll rigging” — has raised concerns even among the senior members of his party. It is doubtful any one of them would defend Sharif’s narrative.

Worryingly for the PML-N, it is also unclear whether that anti-establishment tirade will play well with voters in Punjab. Some analysts believe that Sharif has closed the door on any possible rapprochement with the generals, making his desired political revival more difficult.

Sharif’s return has also widened political polarization in the country in the run-up to the elections, which have already been marred by controversy, with reports that intelligence agencies have forced some candidates to shift their allegiances, and claims of other pre-poll manipulations.

The situation in Pakistan has become extremely ominous. One major question is how the caretaker government and the security establishment plan to deal with this situation and ensure free, fair and transparent elections.

Currently, there is more gloom than hope about that, as the country moves closer to its second consecutive democratic transition.

• Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C., and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C.
Twitter: @hidhussain