On the verge of disaster-
How an India-Pakistan armed confrontation could impact the region
Published
time: 26 Feb, 2019
The
Indian Air Force carried out an attack against targets in Pakistan this morning
that could further corrode the already-strained relations between the two
states and result in a direct armed confrontation.
Clearly,
Islamabad will not leave India's actions unanswered. The cause of concern is
that both India and Pakistan possess significant stocks of tactical,
semi-strategic and strategic nuclear weapons. In the event of an armed
confrontation, both sides could very well exchange nuclear strikes, which would
lead to disastrous consequences – not only for the countries involved, but for
entire Central Asia.
The
exact size of nuclear weapons stockpiles at the disposal of the two countries
is currently unknown. However, according to the 2017 SIPRI Yearbook, India has
an arsenal of 120-130 nuclear warheads, and that number is gradually
increasing. As of 2017, Pakistan possessed 140 nuclear warheads and, according
to expert estimates, Islamabad is intensifying its production of all types of
nuclear weapons.
Both
states have diverse systems of delivery: from tactical aircraft and
ground-based medium-range ballistic missiles to ballistic missile submarines
(India).
India's Nuclear Weapons
To deliver its nuclear payload, India can use its 32 Dassault
Mirage 2000H fighter jets and 16 SEPECAT Jaguar IS attack aircraft. Each
aircraft can carry a single nuclear bomb (the exact yield is not known, but it
is most likely within 10 kilotons). In addition, some mention the Russian
Su-30MKI as a potential carrier of India’s nuclear weapons.
In addition to that, New Delhi has a significant number of
ground-based ballistic missiles. As of January 2017, India had 68 deployed
nuclear missile launchers. Equipped with 12-kiloton (some sources mention a
significantly higher yield) single warheads, Indian IRBMs have a range of
2,500-3,500km.
In August 2016, India's first nuclear-powered ballistic missile
submarine INS Arihant was officially commissioned, carrying 12
submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The construction of INS Aridman, which
is India's second Arihant class nuclear-powered ballistic submarine, is currently
underway. Moreover, according to some sources, India has also launched
construction of a third ballistic missile submarine.
Modern India's vessels are armed with K-15 missiles, which have a
range of 700km. As for the submarines, India's Defence Research &
Development Organisation (DRDO) is developing a K-4 missile with a range of
3,500km. On March 7, 2016, India carried out its first successful launch of the
new missile from a submerged platform in the Bay of Bengal.
Finally, since 2004, India has been developing a subsonic cruise
missile able to carry a nuclear warhead. The missile, codenamed Nirbhay, has a
range of 700-1000km. According to experts, the cruise missile is developed in
different modifications that allow it to be launched from land, air, and from
underwater.
Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons
As for Pakistan’s tactical aviation, the likely candidates to
carry nuclear warheads are the 12 Mirage III/IV fighter jets. Pakistan also has
24 F-16 A/B fighter aircraft that can be used for this purpose. Some estimate
that both these types of aircraft can carry 24 nuclear warheads each. Pakistan
has a fairly wide selection of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles (92
deployed launchers): Abdali, with a range of 180km; Ghaznavi (290km); Shaheen
I, IA, II, III, with a range of 750-2,750km; Ghauri (1,250km); Nasr (60km); and
Ababeel, (2,200km).
In addition, Islamabad’s arsenal includes Babur and Babur 2
surface-to-surface cruise missiles with a range of 350-700km; Babur 3
sea-to-surface cruise missiles (450km); and Hatf VIII air-launched cruise
missile (350km). The yield of a cruise missile warhead is estimated at 12kt,
though there is no accurate data and it could actually be higher.
Possible Scenarios
Considering the Kashmir incident, the situation in the region will
likely develop as follows. The Pakistani Air Force will hit military targets
within Indian territory using similar weapons to those used by New Delhi to
carry out the February 26 airstrikes, which will make it an equal exchange
followed by negotiations aimed at mitigating the differences. This is the most likely
scenario and the most preferable one, shall we say.
However, while analyzing the situation and drawing up operational
strategy, we can’t rule out another possible scenario, i.e. that this border
conflict will spill over into a local, and later a large-scale, war involving
only conventional weapons. It could end up being an unprecedented case in history
in which two nuclear powers are openly at war with each other. Something
similar happened during WWII, when warring parties chose not to use chemical
weapons.
Regarding the potential nuclear strikes, one may rest assured that
both India and Pakistan have a Plan for Strategic Nuclear Forces Operation (or
a Strategic Nuclear Forces Operational Plan – the name of the document does not
change much).
The SNF Operational Plan covers coordinated military activities of
the air force, the navy and the infantry armed with nuclear weapons, consistent
in terms of their goals, objectives and timing, united for a single purpose and
directed from the general headquarters of both countries. At the same time,
their missions and targets are assigned to the different components of the
nuclear forces, based on their combat capabilities, to achieve maximum
efficiency.
In other words, India and Pakistan have long planned potential
nuclear strikes: they have identified their targets, have developed air
missions and incorporated them into corresponding systems. The major concern is
that they could actually put the full scope of their SNF plan into effect.
In particular, they might target large cities. For instance,
India’s Mumbai with its population of over 20 million people is one of the most
densely populated cities in the world. In case of a nuclear attack, casualties
would number in the millions. Pakistan has similarly overpopulated areas.
Furthermore, ground nuclear attacks would introduce thousands of tons of
radioactive fallout into the atmosphere, which the winds would spread across
all of Central Asia.
In this case, it would seem a good thing (as blasphemous as it may
sound) if the conflicting parties were to stop at a mere demonstration of their
nuclear capacities by attacking each other’s desert regions. For instance,
India could strike the southwest of the vast Thar Desert, while Pakistan could
launch a missile into the desert’s southeastern area. Then, having witnessed
each other’s decisive intentions, both countries could turn to diplomacy.
However, events in the region might unfold so rapidly that any
forecast or scenario (however bold) would fail to materialize due to the sheer
unpredictability of the potential developments.
Mikhail
Khodarenok, military commentator for RT.com. He is a retired colonel. He served
as an officer at the main operational directorate of the General Staff of the
Russian Armed Forces.
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