Pakistan is not afraid of India, Dr Shabir Choudhry

Pakistan is not afraid of India.

Dr Shabir Choudhry       21 November 2020

 

Vast number of Pakistanis are brainwashed into believing that their army is the number one army in the world, exceptionally courageous, patriotic and invincible. Also they believe that their prime secret agency, Inter Service Intelligence, is number one in the world, and that other secret agencies and countries are afraid of Pakistan.

 

These Pakistanis also believe that their nuclear bombs, including tactical nuclear devices, and the delivery system and other missile systems are unique and best in the world. They believe that even in a conventional war, the Pakistan army will surprise everyone, and they will capture Jammu and Kashmir and could possibly hoist a Pakistani flag on the Red Fort.

 

I had a difficult conversation with one middle ranking officer of the Pakistan army. He angrily said:

 

‘We are not afraid of India. We are smaller than India. We have less resources, but we are better fighters, more committed and are capable of defeating India; and  don’t give me an example of 1971. It was a political defeat. We are a totally different army now, highly trained and disciplined. We are a battle hardened army with strong dedication, religious fervour and patriotism. In the next round of war we will surprise India and other adversaries. There must be a reason why people regard us as the best army in the world’.

 

I said the army that has lost all the wars is the best, but what about the armies which have not lost any war. Are they not highly trained and disciplined?

 

‘India did not win in 1947, in 1965 or in the Kargil war’, he retorted. ‘In 1971, it was a political defeat; and don’t forget, India lost in 1962 war with China too’.

 

I replied, I did not even mention India. Why are you so obsessed with India. I know the Pakistani soldiers are very brave and dedicated, but war strategies are formulated by the Generals, and I am not sure if they have the same kind of commitment and passion for a war with India.

 

He was clearly not happy with what I said. His reply was: ‘I know what was in your mind. You may be knowledgeable in other fields, but your knowledge on the Pakistan army is very basic’.

 

It was my turn to interrupt him, I said, ‘OK, I am not an expert on Pakistan army, but I have read many books written by the retired Pakistani army officers, and other Pakistani writers. Tell me why your brave army Generals released the Indian pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, who came to inflict damage and kill people in Pakistan? A few weeks ago it was a talk in Pakistani social and political circles about wet paints, sweat and shaking legs after the threat of Indian reprisals. If you people are so brave, why legs were shaking, and why the pilot was immediately released; and why Pakistani establishment was begging China, Britain, American, Saudi Arabia and even tiny UAE to intervene and save Pakistan from the Indian attack’.

He tried to  interrupt me, but I continued, ‘If that was a good - will gesture, as they claim. It was a desperate gesture to appease India, or neutralise the Indian anger. If you are so kind hearted, then why don’t you demonstrate a similar good will gesture and release missing people who were abducted from various parts of Balochistan and KPK? Why not release political prisoners of Gilgit and Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir’.

 

As there was no reply to the above, and it was too much for his tolerance and ego, he used a swear word and disconnected the phone. It is good that we were holding this conversation on the phone, otherwise he would have attacked me physically.

 

I can agree that the Pakistani soldiers and middle ranking officers are very dedicated and brave, however, the same cannot be said about the senior officers. The top brass of the army know their strength, dedication and their resources; and international support which is crucial in wars. They also know what resources India has, how strong is their army, and what international support they have, and even among the Muslim countries.

 

Pakistan learnt many lessons from the defeat of 1971, and formulated  new strategies to teach lessons to India. One such strategy was never to have a full scale war with India. Instead, use proxies to bleed India with thousand cuts, hit India economically and divide the Indian society on religious lines to justify the creation of Pakistan and its existence.

 

They have engaged India not only in Jammu and Kashmir, but also in other parts of India. With a systematic campaign, they bled India, and generated so much hatred that the majority of people of Pakistan, Kashmir, so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan see India as a culprit.

 

Pakistani and their supporters in Kashmir POJK and Gilgit Baltistan think it is India which has started a proxy war against Pakistan, and they are behind all wrong doings in Pakistan. So much so that if someone sells a donkey meat or fake medicine in Pakistan, these stalwarts of Pakistan will accuse India for that.

 

With active support and help of China, Pakistan engaged India at different levels. At the same time, Pakistan spent a huge amount of money to develop its nuclear capability, improving delivery system, missiles, air force and submarines. They have also developed a second strike ability in case of a nuclear war.

Experts estimate that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is around 150 bombs, more than enough to cause havoc in the region and the world. They have the ability to develop more than 40 more warheads. 

 

To care, protect and develop strategies for the nuclear weapons, Pakistan has created a special division for the nuclear weapons, called Strategic Plans Division. It is believed that the most of these weapons are stored in very safe places, like in the Punjab Province, and not in KPK which is unstable and under the influence of the Taliban and extremists.

 

Pakistan can effectively deliver nuclear weapons on target by land, air and sea. They have also developed a second strike capability, which according to some Pakistani experts, enable Pakistan to fight a nuclear war, if that becomes an issue of the country's survival.

 

Pakistan’s top bureaucrat, Roedad Khan, in his book, ‘Pakistan a Slave State’ wrote about wars:

 

‘It is incontestable that economic power, more than anything else, determines the outcome of a long - drawn - out war but this is not true of short, lightning wars lasting for a few weeks only like the three wars fought by India and Pakistan. The outcome of

such short wars is determined more by military organization, preparedness, leadership, and national morale’. 1

 

He further said that because Pakistan is economically weak with nuclear weapons, and is not in a position to fight a long war with India, therefore, Pakistan for its survival must prepare for a short and a defensive war with India. 2

 

Outcome of any war, short or long, is determined by a talented and determined army leader and superior technology. The Indian army is larger than that of Pakistan. Also their air force, navy and other weapons have clear superiority over Pakistan. Indian economy and international standing is much better than Pakistan.

 

Pakistani nuclear bombs could be delivered on target by land, air and sea. Pakistani Jet fighters capable of delivering nuclear bombs have to penetrate Indian air space, which is not that easy because of India’s air defense system. In view of this, Pakistan is more than likely to use land and sea if the situation demanded.

 

For the land delivery system, Pakistan can use Hatf  mobile missiles, which include ‘the solid-fueled Hatf-III (180 miles), solid-fuelled Hatf-IV (466 miles) and liquid-fuelled Hatf V, (766 miles)’. The Shaheen missiles could also be used to deliver nukes on target, especially in faraway areas. 3

 

From sea, Pakistan can use Babar cruise missiles to deliver the nuclear bombs on targets. Babar 2 can also be used by seal and land. In January 2020, Pakistan successfully tested, Babur-3, which in view of Kyle Mizokami ‘would be the most survivable of all Pakistani nuclear delivery systems’. 4

 

Despite this nuclear muscle and formidable conventional strength and dedication of the fighting force, the army leadership is not convinced that they can defeat India in a conventional war. They prefer to use proxies to keep India bleeding in Kashmir and elsewhere.

 

This is not to suggest that Indian hands are clean and that India does not interfere in matters of Pakistan. No matter what pressure India applies on Pakistan, or for that matter, what the international community says about the Pakistani policy of using proxies to advance their agenda, the establishment of Pakistan very bravely, under different pretexts continue to use their proxies to commit acts of violence and terrorism.

 

That is a big success of the Pakistani strategy. They have been bleeding India by using proxies (no need to mention Afghanistan) for many decades. India picked up dead bodies, treated injured, tolerated economic loss, stomached national pride, and bravely issued threats which they were not capable of carrying out.

 

The Pakistani ruling elite knew that these were just threats. It is like a naughty boy troubles a teacher in a classroom, and the teacher gives certain threats to the child to discipline him. The child laughs, and continues with his mischief in the class.

 

Similarly, each time a big event takes place, India says enough is enough, if it happens again, we will retaliate. People who matter in Pakistan smile at this, and continue with their mission. Another incident takes place, and India once again condemns it, and warns Pakistan not to do it again or face reprisals. This goes on without a break.

 

Pakistan’s top army officers are conscious of this fact they cannot fight a conventional war with India for too long. Use of tactical nuclear weapons is not a sensible or a serious option, because the consequence of that is too dreadful to contemplate.

 

In view of this, fall back for the Pakistani army is to get support from China; either Chinese direct involvement in the war or seriously engage India on multiple points along the LAC.

 

We can appreciate Pakistan’s ‘bravery’ when it comes to India. However we request the Pakistan establishment to let us live in peace. We people of the divided State of Jammu and Kashmir want to live in peace. We have no animosity with India or Pakistan.

 

Please don’t kill us by the LOC firing. It doesn’t matter who starts the firing, we the people of the divided state suffer on both sides of the divide. This policy must stop, and stop immediately so that our people can get some relief.

In this regard, we request Pakistani establishment to stop sending militants across the LOC which triggers the LOC firing. Also we request the Pakistani establishment to move out their camps and safe houses of the militants from the villages because their presence invites the Indian reprisals; and innocent people die as a direct result of that.

 

We request both governments to make the LOC violence free zone by making 5 miles peace zone along the LOC where the people of Jammu and Kashmir can interact and socialise.

 

Also we request the Pakistani establishment to abandon their policy of nourishing extremist groups like Taliban, LeT, JeM, LeJ, TLP and many others, who are exporting violence and terrorism, and intimidating and harassing the local people.