Why the West may miss the Taliban's
Mullah Omar, by David Rohde
July 30, 2015
Reports on Wednesday that reclusive Taliban leader Mullah Omar had died
will be rightly hailed by some as the demise of an American nemesis. But the
death of the one-eyed Afghan commander may also scuttle the most promising
peace talks in Afghanistan in a decade.
Omar’s direct role in day-to-day Taliban operations had been declining
for years, according to Western diplomats in Afghanistan. Even if
he is alive, the former leader of Afghanistan is believed to be severely ill.
But the myth that surrounds Omar is a key element in determining whether
peace talks can succeed. With Islamic State and other jihadist groups vying for
the loyalty of young Taliban fighters, it is unclear whether any leader except
Omar can hold the movement together and then get its members to accept a peace
settlement.
“The nightmare is if nobody
respected the leadership anymore in the Taliban,” said Graeme Smith, an International
Crisis Group senior analyst who is based in Kabul, “because then you have no
one to talk to.”
After decades of using Afghanistan as a battleground for proxy war, the
major powers that exacerbated the country’s internal divisions are finally on
the same page. Two weeks ago, as Chinese and U.S. diplomats stood by, Pakistani
officials convened the first direct peace talks between senior Afghan and
Taliban officials in a decade. A second round of negotiations is scheduled on
Friday.
But the emergence of actual negotiations has placed enormous strain on
the Taliban and widened a dangerous rift inside the group.
In the past few weeks, two different militant groups once allied with
the Taliban have issued statements declaring Omar is dead. Their goal was to
call into question the authority of his deputy, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor,
to lead the group.
Omar’s 26-year-old son, Yaqoob, and other hardliners oppose the peace
talks, according to a recent story by a veteran Pakistani
journalist with close ties to the Taliban. The hardliners opposed Mansoor’s
decision to send a delegation to direct peace talks on July 7. Mansoor later
issued a statement purported to be from Omar that supported the talks.
The worrying trend is that this dispute reflects deep tribal divisions
within the Taliban that could divide the entire movement. Ideological rifts
exist as well. Some hardline factions that have declared allegiance to Islamic
State now often engage in gun battles with traditional Taliban groups.
At the same time, the Obama administration’s withdrawal of the vast
majority of U.S. troops has bolstered the efforts of the Taliban hardliners.
The insurgents have made sweeping military gains in the country’s north.
Afghan government forces are experiencing a 50 percent increase in
casualty rates. Roughly 4,100 Afghan soldiers and police were killed and 7,800
wounded in the first six months of this year, according to news reports.
Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, has also come under withering
criticism from fellow Afghans for a bold diplomatic gamble. Since taking
office, the U.S.-educated anthropologist has openly wooed Chinese and Pakistani
officials. He made many concessions in hopes they could help bring the Taliban
to the negotiating table.
In a piece of rare good news from Afghanistan, Ghani’s gambit has paid
off. After sheltering Taliban leaders for the past 14 years, Pakistani military
officials are putting intense pressure on the Taliban to attend the talks.
Pressure from China, the Pakistani military’s most important ally,
appears to have played a central role, according to Barnett Rubin, a former
senior State Department official and expert on Afghanistan. Chinese officials
increasingly see militancy in the region as a threat to Beijing’s plans for
economic growth and political stability in western China, which borders both Afghanistan
and Pakistan.
As Rubin wrote in the New Yorker on
Wednesday:
An increase in terrorist attacks connected to a separatist movement in
the Xinjiang Autonomous region, some of whose fighters received training in
Pakistan and Afghanistan, had led China to regard the stability of Afghanistan
as crucial to its internal security as well as its economic future.
As odd as it may seem to some Americans, Omar’s death could not come at
a worse time. Omar’s brutality was medieval. But for more than a decade, he
served as the unifying force of the Taliban.
The talks on Friday and their progress in the weeks ahead could help
determine whether Afghanistan follows the route of Syria, Yemen and Libya
toward state collapse. As the rise of Islamic State has shown, an even more
radical group could rise out of the disintegration of the Taliban.
A rare moment of consensus among international powers and their longtime
Afghan proxies exist. But it may be too late to halt the centrifugal forces
unleashed in Afghanistan by both internal and external actors over the past 40
years.
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