In Pakistan, the
significance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is poorly understood.
The Straits of Malacca connect China with global trade through an expansive
12,000km sea route. Then, to transport their goods to the Xingjiang region, the
Chinese must travel another 3,500km over land. A quarter of the world’s, and
most of China’s oil, passes through the Straits, whose control is continually
challenged for domination by the US Navy and Indian pretensions giving rise to
the ‘Malacca Dilemma’. The CPEC reduces China’s route from the Indian Ocean to
3,000km across Pakistani territory from the Gwadar Port and avoids the Straits
altogether. It facilitates trade by road and rail, while at the same time
boosting oil and gas pipelines through infrastructure enhancement. Gwadar has a
200,000 tonne tanker capacity, which presents unmatched opportunities for
boosting global economic interactivity within Pakistan. Located strategically
at the tail of the Corridor, yet at the confluence of most of the world’s
oil-producing states, Gwadar automatically becomes one of the largest
transshipment ports. It is envisaged to have an international airport, crude
oil refineries and the ability to dock larger ships, turning it into a robust
trade and transportation hub.
Apprehensions
about interdiction and disruption of the CPEC are understandable, with India,
the Middle East and the US, all likely to be affected by the deal. Pakistan can
expect to find itself targeted by those focused intently on containing China.
Afghanistan has already threatened to block energy pipelines from Central Asia,
quid pro quo for Pakistan blocking land access to India. Fortunately, China has
reincarnated the Silk Route through Kyrgyzstan via Kashgar as a way to
circumvent Afghanistan. Encouraged by Indian instigation, Afghanistan has now
rejected the Durand Line with new vigour, negatively impacting the CPEC by
inciting Pakhtun sentiment.
India, too, has
rediscovered new urgency to integrate Gilgit-Baltistan into Indian-occupied
Kashmir. It envisages severing a Pak-China land connection and is at pains to
present new maps to the world, which project Gilgit as Indian territory, a
shameless attempt to shape international opinion. Also, with its huge coal
reserves, the Thar desert in southern Pakistan is another hotspot due to being
instrumental in energy generation projects integrated into the CPEC. This area
could be uniquely vulnerable to Indian interference. A potential for future
conflict looms ominously and puts Pakistan in a dangerous situation, with there
being threats at its extremities, i.e., at Gilgit, Thar, as well as the western
border.
Pakistan is
likely to suffer even more political instability, insurgency, terrorism,
ideological conflicts and separatist movements as the CPEC progresses. For its
part, Pakistan must become more adept at diplomacy and supplement those efforts
with political reforms at home. If the CPEC is to be a success, the military
will play a key role in balancing dynamic responses to repel hostile activity
at the limbs while also protecting China’s projects from terrorism. The CPEC’s
security would further benefit by integrating more stakeholders, especially the
Balochis, who could significantly benefit from the success of the Gwadar Port
but currently feel neglected. Of the possible foreign partners, Russia is
positioned to be a beneficiary of the new trade route and thus makes a natural
target for support. Its involvement would be a way to counter the Indo-US
nexus. The competitive nature of the US may even inspire Russia to jump into
the fray at some point. No matter how you cut it, the global implications of
the CPEC can’t be ignored and Pakistan must be prepared to fight on all fronts
to achieve success.
Published
in The Express Tribune, September 5th, 2016.
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