Conspiracy theories and the CPEC, Dr Shabir
Choudhry
London
30 March 2017
Politics
in Pakistan generally thrives on conspiracy theories. Politicians and the
public try to find a conspiracy in everything; and people, by and large, enjoy
talking about these conspiracy theories and take lead in spreading them. Sad
thing is if you don’t accept their version of events or perceived threats, they
get angry and without any hesitation will call you a traitor or an agent of
someone.
In their
view, all the problems of Pakistan are because of India, Israel, and the West,
especially America. Let us accept for a minute, that there is some truth in
these allegations and some foreign countries could be behind terrorism and
political instability in Pakistan.
However,
question arises, which country tells Pakistani leaders, bureaucrats and other
officials to loot and plunder resources of Pakistan and deposit that money
outside Pakistan? Which country tells Pakistani milkmen to mix polluted tap
water in milk which Pakistani children drink for nourishment? Which foreign
secret agency tells Pakistani butchers to sell donkey and dog meat as halal
meat of goats and sheep? Which foreign country tells Pakistani doctors and
pharmaceutical companies to sell fake medicines? The list goes on.
People
should accept that as a nation they have serious problems. It is sad that
corruption, nepotism, extremism, fabrication, dishonesty, loot and plunder as
become a way of life for many citizens; and instead of looking at their own bad
deeds they divert attention by saying that there is a foreign conspiracy
against Pakistan.
A
favourite rallying slogans are:
·
Islam
is in danger – danger from who? Pakistan has 98% Muslims. Is the danger to
Islam from these Muslims; or is it from the 2% non-Muslims?
·
Pakistan
is in danger – they don’t tell that danger to Pakistan is due to their wrong
policies of strategic depth, promoting extremism and harbouring terrorists;
·
And
new slogan is ‘our nuclear assets are in danger’ and the world is determined to
take these away from Pakistan. First priority was to build nuclear bombs and infrastructure
to protect Pakistan; and now worried nation is busy trying to protect these
weapons.
Whenever something goes wrong in Pakistan, or the establishment want to
divert attention of people from some burning domestic issue, a situation is
created and a systematic campaign is launched that arch enemy - India was
behind this incident. In some cases, they say a foreign hand was behind this.
Similarly, if something unpleasant happens in India, they accuse Pakistan for
this.
Unfortunately, this blame game is very old and notorious. People with
common sense and knowledge understand motives behind this, and generally they
ignore these allegations. However, some are brave enough to challenge these
allegations and provide a counter narrative and suffer. Others, while disagreeing
with these allegations and want to oppose the establishment, but choose to
acquiesce because of fear of reprisals or personal gains.
Is India behind
terrorism in Pakistan to sabotage CPEC
Although there are many countries and groups inside and outside Pakistan
who have strong reasons to oppose the CPEC, yet the biggest allegation is: ‘India
is opposing the CPEC and destabilising Pakistan’.
This allegation would have more merit if there was complete peace and
harmony in Pakistan before start of the CPEC. Religious militant groups created
by the Pakistani establishment with intention of using them as proxies to
promote their agenda inside and outside Pakistan, some of them turned their
guns against the creator and caused havoc in Pakistan. The Pakistani
establishment was not morally courageous enough to acknowledge their disastrous
policy and blamed ‘foreign hand’ in these terrorist acts. This is not to
suggest that there was no outside support for these acts. It is natural that if
you export terrorism and hatred to other countries they will in turn do the
same. A Pakistani writer Anjum Altaf in his article, ‘Locating the enemy’ said:
‘Much as one would like to swallow this line it is really
hard to believe that it was our enemies who convinced us to create these monsters
in the first place…Or that it is our enemies who are forcing us to discriminate
between good terrorists and bad, between real terrorists and mere sectarian
killers, and between terrorists and philanthropists who rush to help the poor
and needy in times of floods and earthquakes when the state fails to do what it
is supposed to do’. 1
If one is in a
business of feeding poisonous snakes with intention of exporting them and
intimidating the neighbours, one also needs to be prepared to face its consequences,
as the neighbours can also formulate counter strategies; and snakes can also
bite the owner, his wife, his children and his friends.
When a terrorist attack took place on a Mall Road, Lahore, near the
Provincial Assembly in which many innocent people were killed. Instant response
from some quarters was India has done it. After a few hours of investigation,
it was revealed that the man who brought the suicide bomber to Lahore, kept him
in a ‘safe house’ and then took him to the Mall Road was a Pakistani who was
doing some business in Lahore. It took the investigating team only 45 minutes
the catch the culprit with evidence.
In revenge for this attack, within hours the Pakistani jet fighters were
in action, and it was claimed that more than 100 terrorists were killed. I was
among those who questioned rational of this claim. How were they able to locate
100 terrorists so soon? Did they know where they were hiding? How did they know
they were terrorists? If they knew they were terrorists and they were hiding in
that locality, why no action was taken to apprehend them? I raised these
questions on the social media. A Pakistani writer wrote in the following words:
‘What puzzles me is
how the terrorists who have been eliminated were identified and located so
quickly. Did we always know where they were but were letting them be for some
reason? If we were letting them be was it because we did not have enough
evidence they were involved in terrorism? If that is indeed the case, how could
we just go ahead and eliminate them without conclusive evidence? And, if we did
have the evidence and knew where they were, why did we not arrest them and
establish their involvement in some sort of a normal civilised manner’? 2
It
is interesting to note that some of these air raids were conducted inside
Afghanistan, an independent country and a Muslim neighbour of Pakistan. The
fact that these raids were carried out almost immediately proves that they knew
where these terrorists were hiding, some inside Pakistani territory and some
outside.
Among
the causalities could be innocent people including old men, women and children.
More worrying is the fact that Pakistan had no right to violate air space of
another sovereign country and kill people. If this precedent is acceptable that
a country can cross the international boundary and conduct an act of aggression
without knowledge or consent of that country, then Pakistan can also face similar
actions.
America
also carried out an attack on Abbottabad, either with consent or without
consent. They carried out other military acts inside Pakistan when their forces
were in Afghanistan. OK, one can understand drone attacks were carried out with
the consent of Pakistan; and the statements and some demonstrations were
arranged to fool Pakistani people.
Last
year, India claimed to have carried out a military action inside Pakistan or in
Jammu and Kashmir territory controlled by Pakistan. It is a known fact that militants
go across the LOC from the Pakistani controlled area to do jihad – to commit acts
of violence and terrorism in India or inside the territory controlled by India.
What if India decides to use the Pakistani action in Afghanistan as an example,
and try to carry out some military action in Pakistan or in the territory
controlled by Pakistan. Won’t this push the region towards another military
confrontation; and if the policy makers of Pakistan want to avoid this
disastrous outcome, then is it not prudent that they should be more cautious in
their approach to the problem solving and in relationship with neighbouring
countries?
The
learned writer, Anjum Altaf, while talking about the policy of good Taliban or
a good terrorist says:
‘Why do we seem to be
in this game of ranking terrorists along some scale of goodness or usefulness?
If that is indeed the case, could someone have the courtesy of taking the
nation into confidence, explaining how some terrorists are better than others
and what we are aiming to do with the good ones?....A failure to provide
convincing answers can only lead to one conclusion: We have met the enemy and
he is us’.3
I am not in a position to say that India is involved or not in terrorism
in Pakistan. However, many analysts, which include Pakistanis too, feel there
are other factors that result in terrorism in Pakistan. For example, sponsoring
militant groups that continue to follow instructions of Islamabad; and despite
enormous human and financial losses still differentiating between a ‘good
Taliban’ and a ‘bad Taliban’; or a ‘good terrorist’ and a ‘bad terrorist’.
Also, their policy of providing safe havens to those who commit acts of
violence in Afghanistan, in India and in Kashmir; and supporting certain
Islamic sects against the others is also backfiring. It looks that the
Pakistani establishment is determined not to learn from past mistakes and wants
to continue with their disastrous policies.
Syed Arfeen, a Karachi based investigative journalist in his article ‘Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Good Taliban’ wrote on
10 March 2017, that in the
‘outlawed Pakistani militant outfit Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA),
a splinter group of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), took credit for the
attack and claimed the assault was part of their newly announced offensive’. 4
This new wave of terror in Pakistan is launched
by ‘Operation Ghazi’, named after the deceased
leader of Islamabad’s famous Red Mosque, Mulana Abdur Rasheed Ghazi, who was
first groomed and when he was becoming too big for his shoes killed in a
Pakistan Army operation in 2007. His brother is still regarded as a ‘holy cow’
in Pakistan. He can say anything, even challenge a writ of the government and
the authorities don’t take any action against him. Is Indian RAW or CIA telling
Pakistani authorities to let him promote terrorism, religious hatred and
violence; or is this a State policy not to say anything to those who preach
hatred and intolerance?
One can believe that these ‘bad
Talibans’ and ‘bad terrorists’ may have safe havens in Afghanistan, but one
should also remember the fact that there are large areas of Afghanistan which
are not under the control of Kabul; and the government does not have their writ
in these areas. Apart from that, we should also remember that for many decades
Pakistan has been sponsoring terrorism, or call it jihad, in Afghanistan which
resulted in death of more than 3 million people since 1979.
What Pakistan did in Afghanistan, and
continues to do is not on the request of the Afghan government; and it was not
a Pakistani business who ruled Afghanistan. Their policy of a ‘strategic depth’
has cost Pakistan and Afghanistan enormously. It was during the ‘Afghan jihad’;
and subsequent imperialist policy of ‘strategic depth’ when the militant
infrastructure was established to use militancy as a foreign policy tool.
When these militants understood the
power of a gun and terrorism, some of them rebelled against their masters in
Pakistan; and the policy of exporting jihad came to haunt Pakistan. Sadly,
Pakistani establishment still did not abandon their futile and dangerous
policy. They still continued to provide everything what the ‘good Talibans’ and
‘good terrorists’ needed. Pakistani establishment erroneously believed that
they can breed and train snakes, which will only bite their enemies in the
neighbouring countries. When snakes, in accordance with their nature started
biting Pakistanis, the establishment got unnerved and started complaining and
blaming other countries.
The man
behind the suicide attack on the Mall Road Lahore, Anwar-ul-Haq is
from Bajur Agency, FATA (Pakistan); and was a member the outlawed
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, which claimed responsibility for the deadly blast. Anwar Ul
Haq worked in Lahore. He was the man, and not the Indian RAW or CIA who brought
the suicide bomber to Lahore, and provided him shelter. He was the one who
selected the target place and took him there on his motor bike.
A Sufi
shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar at Sehwan in Sindh became a target of the
terrorists, only three days after the attack in Lahore, which killed at least
88 devotees and leaving many injured. Rahimullah Yousafzai, a seasoned Pakistani
journalist and analyst believes the terrorists wanted to send this message that
their back is not broken by Zarb e Azab, as claimed by the Pakistani army high
command.
In any
case, Muslims in Pakistan know very well which sect of Islam systematically
targets shrines and who supports them.
The new
Pakistani army Chief has started a new military operation called Radd Ul Fasad
– elimination of discord; but many people question if his operation will be
able to eradicate terrorism. Above all, if he has the correct strategy to
eradicate terrorism; or he is also only interested in cutting off some branches
of terrorism. Will he be able to attack holy cows of jihad and dismantle
sources of extremism and terrorism?
Whether
the Pakistani establishment can be united to eliminate terrorism and dismantle
sources of extremism and terrorism or not; but surely the terrorist groups have
regrouped and have united on certain points. Khan Said Sajna, who leads the
powerful faction of Mehsud Taliban has joined hands with Mullah Fazlullah led
TTP. Sami Yousafai wrote in Newsweek that in January this year various factions
of TTP have decided to reunite to continue their ‘jihad’ against Pakistan. 5
After the
recent attacks in Pakistan, the Pakistan army claimed to have destroyed many
terrorist camps. Also, the Pakistan army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa
contacted U.S. General John Nicholson, Resolute Support Mission (RSM) commander
in Afghanistan and expressed his concerns over continued acts of terrorism in
Pakistan coordinated with impunity from Afghanistan.
In the
Past, Afghanistan used to complain about Pakistani sponsored terrorism; and
urged Pakistan to stop it. Now, Pakistan accuses Afghanistan for supporting TTP
and JUA for acts of terrorism against Pakistan. Afghanistan in return, blames
Pakistan for supporting the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network in their terror
campaign against Kabul.
It is
important to note that the Haqqani network and the Afghan Taliban do not target
Pakistan; and the TTP and JUA do not attack Kabul. Perhaps, one may argue that
there is no Afghan institutional backing to anti-Pakistan militant groups, as
they operate from the areas of Afghanistan which are not controlled by Kabul
government.
The
Pakistani establishment is not yet ready to accept that Islamic State has
strong existence in Pakistan and Afghanistan, just like the previous PPP
government never accepted that the Blackwater was operating in Pakistan. People
don’t understand that for the existence of ISIS, no one needs to travel from
Iraq or Syria to Pakistan, or establish their offices in Islamabad. Different
terror groups just have to change their allegiance, which they very frequently
do. Last year a Khorsan Branch of Islamic State was declared, which is known as
Islamic State of Khorsan Province or ISKP; and its area of operation is parts
of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran.
It is not
secret that the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for ‘deadly strikes
across Pakistan, including the Sehwan bombing where close to 100 innocent
people, including children and women, lost their lives’. Apart from that
the Law Enforcement Agencies have claimed to have ‘busted an
ISKP network in Pakistan last September’, but the ‘group is still posing a
potent threat as they are using local militants to achieve their targets’. 6
Question
is if there is no existence of Islamic State in Pakistan, then what have the
intelligence services ‘busted’? It is time that the Pakistani establishment
learn from their past mistakes and target the enemies inside Pakistan. This
policy of diverting attention of public by old slogans like ‘hidden hand’’, foreign
hand’ and ‘broken back bone of terrorists’ may give some political mileage, but
it won’t help to eradicate terrorism. Rather than saying there is a hidden hand
or a foreign hand, after each incident, it is best to resolve the internal
problems, and the foreign hand will automatically become ineffective without
the internal support.
Despite
the fact that the Pakistani policies have caused havoc in Afghanistan; they
have sided with foreign countries to cause death and destruction and topple the
Afghan governments which they did not like, then Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif has the nerve to say:
“Pakistan was a well-wisher for the war-torn country and
urged the government in Kabul to realise that. “Pakistan has always desired
peace and stability in Afghanistan and wants to contribute to its development.” He further said:
“A peaceful Afghanistan is in the
interest of Pakistan and the region. We believe in maintaining good relations
with all and we demonstrated this spirit of goodwill with other states and w7ithin
the country as well.” 7
CPEC and Indian concerns
Everyone
in Pakistan and China claim that the CPEC is an economic corridor. However,
India, America and some other countries have strong reservations, as they think
the CPEC is only a camouflage and the real goal is strategic and military.
Also, India believes that the CPEC is designed to encircle India.
Federal
Minister and the man in charge of the CPEC on the Pakistani side Ahsan Iqbal
while delivering a lecture on the CPEC, organised
by Applied Economics Research Center at Rangoonwala Auditorium, AERC KU said:
“An economic zone
of three billion people is likely to emerge in Pakistan due to CPEC, which will
act as a bridge between South Asia, Central Asia and China,” he said, and
added, “India has felt greatly threatened by CPEC because it will isolate the
country in the region.” 8
The Nation, English daily of Pakistan
published the story with the following heading: ‘CPEC to isolate India in the
region’, Ahsan Iqbal.
If one aim of the CPEC is to isolate
India in the region, then is it not natural for India to be worried and take
appropriate measures to safeguard their interests?
No
matter what China and Pakistan may say about India’s concerns on the CPEC, many
neutral experts feel Indian concerns are not without foundations. As the Nation
news headline associated with Ahsan Iqbal suggests ‘CPEC to isolate India in the region’, Indian
experts feel the CPEC is part of the policy to encircle and isolate India.
Also,
the CPEC will endanger India’s economic and strategic interests in the Arabian
Sea and in the Indian Ocean. Despite this strong apprehension, India seems to
be reluctant to take any pro - active measures against the CPEC, because India
does not want to internationalise the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.
Indian
fear is that Pakistan is always looking at opportunities or create situations
to internationalise the outstanding Jammu and Kashmir dispute; and Indian over
- action on the CPEC may prove to be counterproductive; and may provide
Pakistan with an opportunity to exploit the situation. Some Indian policy
makers feel Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistani Occupied Jammu and Kashmir are not
under their control anyway, so why risk of creating more trouble for Kashmir
which they control.
On January 17, speaking at a seminar in New
Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: "Only by respecting the
sovereignty of countries involved, can regional connectivity corridors fulfil
their promise and avoid differences and discord."
Some
Indian policy makers feel just a few vague statements like the one above are
sufficient to register their concern on the CPEC. Perhaps, they don’t
understand that both China and Pakistan pay no attention to these statements;
and they will continue to do what they think is in their best interest.
Another
statement of India’s Union Minister of
State for Development of North Eastern Region Jitendra Singh, while speaking to
ANI said:
“We will free Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, free
Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan’s occupation and make them part of Indian
Republic to bring Jammu and Kashmir in its original form.” 9
This statement was made when Pakistanis were celebrating 78th Pakistan Day. The timing of the
statement is crucial. What message this statement will give to people of
Pakistan and their supporters in Jammu and Kashmir and in the world? What is
the purpose of this provoking statement when there is no will or strength to do
anything? It will only provide a strong propaganda stick in the hands of policy
makers of Islamabad and their army of social media activists around the globe.
In my opinion, it will only create
problems for those local groups who are actively working against the
Islamabad’s Kashmir policy, their oppression and exploitation. The Pakistani
media cell and their army of social media activists will say, ‘Look this statement
has confirmed our view that India is behind these people who are working to
destabilise Islamic Republic of Pakistan’. They will make it a Muslim and
Hindu issue, hence, create more problems for genuine human rights and political
activists.
At
one time, China was neutral on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir dispute. As China
and Pakistan relationship became stronger, China abandoned its neutrality and
openly supported Islamabad on Jammu and Kashmir and on other issues including
safeguarding Pakistani extremists and terrorists from the UN and America. China
even issued stapled visas to some Kashmiri Muslim leaders who are in good books
of Pakistan.
Some
experts feel due to the CPEC and growing China and Pakistan relations in many
fields, including economic and military relations, it is believed that China
will become more pro - active in matter of Jammu and Kashmir dispute, and in
protection of Pakistan. This is not in the interest of India because China is
becoming a big player in the international relations and holds a veto power in
the UN.
Fahad
Shah, in his article, Does the China Pakistan
economic corridor worry India?
writes:
‘The Gwadar port, overlooking one of the
world's busiest shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea, has been leased to Beijing
for 40 years. New Delhi fears that the port might become a Chinese naval
outpost, thereby threatening India's energy and economic security, as more than
two thirds of India's petroleum imports pass through the area’. 10
It is believed that
India is investing in Iran and Afghanistan to counter the CPEC and constructing
an alternative route to the CPEC. In this regard Chabahar Port, is developed by
India, and which is only 75km from Gwadar. India has also invested around two
billion US dollars in Afghanistan in developing infrastructure, which will
enable India to travel via Iran and Afghanistan to Central Asia. Despite
repeated requests, Pakistan has not provided this access to India.
Once
this route becomes functional, it will open new markets for the Indian
industrialists. Also, it will benefit landlocked Afghanistan to connect itself
with the Gulf states, Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.
It
is also a possibility that sometime in future, when common sense prevails, and
the countries concerned realise that continued hostility and tension is not
good; and they work out a mechanism whereby Gwadar and Chabahar Port become
a sister ports, a part of same network.
Game plan of China
It should be noted that India spends almost seven times more on its military
than Pakistan; and its GDP is 8 times more than that of Pakistan. Apart from
that, India’s population is 6.5 times that of Pakistan and land area 4 times
that of Pakistan. Which means, in view of many experts, Pakistan is not a match
to India.
China desperately needs Pakistan to advance their future plans, which
includes development of its Western region; and to have an alternative route in
case if there are problems in South China Sea. Due to growing Indian
development and hegemony, China is helping Pakistan even more. This in turn,
force America and India to forge close economic and military ties.
Moreover, the involvement of Pakistan in building new ‘Arab armies’ can
be very important. Pakistani former army Chief, Raheel Sharif is to Head this
alliance; and many experts are watching this development with suspicion. Who
knows what is the real game plan, because it can have great impact on the
politics of Middle East and South Asia.
In order to protect their economic and strategic
interests, China feels compelled to strengthen Pakistan that they can defend
themselves against any misadventure of India. Just like America is preparing
India to challenge growing power and influence of China, or contain China;
similarly, it suits China to prepare Pakistan to challenge India’s growing
power and influence.
Also, it must be noted that China has been
quietly playing an active role in Afghanistan; and they don’t want any
government in Kabul which is anti - army of Pakistan. This line of thinking can
play an important role in future politics of the region.
Apart from that, it should also be
noted that America has made enormous investment in Afghanistan, militarily,
strategically, financially and in human suffering. They also know that their
close ally, Pakistan, which pocketed billions of dollars from the Afghan war
was playing double game and that resulted, in a way, ‘defeat’ of America in
Afghanistan.
Has America forgotten their wounds
which they suffered in Afghanistan, especially when a man like Donald Trump is
in the Whitehouse with his pro - active and aggressive team? Will America let
China, Pakistan and, perhaps, Russia call the shots in Afghanistan South Asia
and in Central Asia? That surely is not in the strategic interest of America.
In view of Mian Saifur Rehman, abandoning Afghanistan is tantamount to ‘selling
away on a platter United State’s vital strategic interest and influence in
Greater South West Asia and Central Asia’.
Mian Saifur Rehman further writes: “China,
in the garb of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the
China-Pakistan Axis, is bent on overturning the geopolitical stability of the
region. So now, Afghanistan is the US President Trump’s most pressing
call. The United States does not need an Indian strategic analyst to
highlight how vital Afghanistan is for United States’ national security
interests”. 11
To understand
this matter better, it is perhaps better to go back in history, especially
European history. Germany was fast emerging
as an economic and military power before the First World War. The leaders of
Germany knew that they need a strong economy to wage wars and win them. Also,
they knew they need friends and new markets; and good networking. So, they
initiated a mega project, just like the CPEC, which was to link Berlin with
Baghdad – Iraq. This 4500-km long railway track line project aimed to
strengthen bilateral trade relation with Iraq and promote regional connectivity
with other countries like Syria, Turkey, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Austria. Also,
in the plan included establishment of an advanced port at Persian
Sea, and fast access and supply of oil from Syria and Iraq.
Dr Ramesh
K Vankwani, a Member National Assembly of Pakistan and
Patron-in-Chief of Pakistan Hindu Council in his article, ‘Western conspiracies
against CPEC’ wrote: ‘The superpowers of
that time felt risks that if the economically fast growing Germany succeeded in
this project, then it will not take long time to appear as a new superpower of
the world, and with the access to Arab world oil reservoirs the defensive and economic
position of Germany will be more strong and invincible. These were the reasons
and the causes because of which the imperialists of that time started
conspiracies against that great project. To fail that railway line, we see how
tension aroused among Austria and Serbia’. 12
As a
result of the World War 1, not only millions of people died but also that mega
project also ended. The Pakistani Parliamentarian while citing the World War 1
says:
‘This
terrible incident is a lesson for us so that we can understand the intensity of
western conspiracies against China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Our
Western neighbor Afghanistan has a hostile attitude towards Pakistan from day
one, Afghanistan was the only country who voted against Pakistan for its
UN membership in 1947. The Durand Line is still a major factor for
regional tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the independence’. 13
He
acknowledges India’s concerns regarding the CPEC:
‘Indian
concerns are quite understandable that because of CPEC Chinese ships will
get alternative sea routes to bypass Indian territory but Indian
access to the Middle East and western world via sea route could also be
limited, China and Pakistan can keep an eye on Indian ships movement in Arabian
Sea, etc but landlocked Afghanistan should think before becoming tool of any
country that its interest is associated with peaceful relation with Pakistan’….
He concluded his view by stating that:
‘Common
enemies of Pakistan and China are trying to damage the business interests of
both friendly countries by doing conspiracies against this great project of
21st century, I think by backing up Afghanistan against Pakistan in this great
game, a similar sort of atmosphere is being tried to create which was faced by
Germany in the last century’. 14
The
Pakistani Parliamentarian said the above. One can accept or reject these
points. However, before taking decision on those points, it is important what
the Prime Minister says on this topic. During his visit to Turkey, the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said, some
‘regional powers’ appear to have a problem with the multibillion-dollar
project; but he did not ‘sense any conspiracy is being hatched by the US
or the West against CPEC”. However, in a reply to a question about the
economic corridor, he said, “some regional powers are unhappy with this
project”. 15
Is it possible that the great powers of today can do what great powers of
the last century did to stop Germany emerging as a great power to challenge
their might? Or they will sit idle, and allow China to emerge as a serious
threat to their economic and strategic interests? If they decide to work out
some mechanism to stop the CPEC from becoming a reality, it cannot be a direct
intervention because of the nuclear deterrent. Does it mean they will also use
their proxies or set up new proxies to challenge the emerging might of China,
Russia and Pakistan?
Or, are we likely to witness another non - nuclear
military confrontation between India and Pakistan which can lead to seriously
sabotaging the CPEC or even lead to disintegration of the existing Pakistan, as
predicted by some experts?
No one has answers to above questions. I can only hope
that common sense prevails and the powers concerned learn to resolve disputes
by a process of dialogue; and avoid a policy of gun boat diplomacy.
Former
Army Chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, asserted
that threat to Pakistan is not from outside, but from inside, referring to
militancy and insurgency of religious groups. After his retirement, the army
elite went back to the old threat perception that Pakistan’s security threat
comes from India. Some military thinkers don’t even rule out another armed
conflict despite the nuclear deterrent.
Also,
according to the military elite the fundamental source of this threat is the
unresolved dispute of Jammu and Kashmir. Furthermore, they think India is
behind all the problems in Balochistan, in FATA and KPK. They don’t think their
wrong policies are to be blamed for the problems they face today.
They
think India’s growing economy and military might is encouraging the Indian
policy makers to act as a regional superpower and intimidate smaller
neighbours. In view of the Pakistani policy makers, in order to militarily
intimidate Pakistan, India has developed a new doctrine called “Cold Start”,
purpose of which is to launch speedy assaults inside Pakistani territory or
territory of Jammu and Kashmir controlled by Pakistan. Aim of such attacks is to
capture the territories before Pakistan prepares itself for such incursions;
and use that to intimidate Pakistan or use that to impose some deal on Pakistan.
Some thought provoking comments by an Indian
analyst. D S Sarma says, ‘China builds roads on some other country’s land
without their permission and says that you do not have a right to protest. This
is just arrogance and showing of money and muscle power. CPEC will be the first
victim in the next Indo Pak war. Billions China has spent will be washed out
with time. No doubt on that’.
In another, he says: ‘CPEC is doomed to fail at
least for Pakistanis. The CPEC could become the cause of disintegration of
Pakistan. Think what happens to CPEC once Baluchistan separates from Pakistan’? 16
I hope all these apprehensions prove to be wrong,
and that all outstanding disputes are resolved by involving all the
stakeholders in the process of dialogue.
Writer is a political analyst, TV anchor and author of many
books and booklets. Also he is Chairman South Asia Watch and Director Institute
of Kashmir Affairs. Email:
References:
1. Dawn, March 7th, 2017. The writer is a
Pakistani economist
2. Ibid
3. Ibid
4.
Syed Arfeen is an investigative journalist based in
Karachi, Pakistan. He tweets @arfeensyyed
http://thediplomat.com/2017/03/afghanistan-pakistan-and-the-good-taliban/
6.
Ibid
7.
The Express Tribune, February 25th, 2017.
8. The Nation
14-Feb-2017 http://nation.com.pk/karachi/14-Feb-2017/cpec-to-isolate-india-in-the-region-ahsan
11.
The News,
March 8, 2017 https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/190926-China-Pakistan-Russia-troika-stands-on-goodwill
12. Western conspiracies against CPEC?
Dr Ramesh K Vankwani, March
4, 2017 http://pakobserver.net/western-conspiracies-against-cpec/
13. Ibid
14. Ibid
15.
The
Express Tribune, February 25th, 2017.
