CPEC and foreign policy of Pakistan
Dr Shabir Choudhry 27 August 2018
Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the new Foreign Minister of Pakistan, in his
effort to assert his authority and impress his followers said:
"There are pre-conceived notions about where the
foreign policy of Pakistan was
formulated. Let me be clear: the foreign policy will be made here ─ at the
Foreign Office of Pakistan." While saying that, he did not
forget to bang the desk a few times. 1
I am not sure how many people were impressed by this
gesture. Maybe he was assuring himself and trying to boost his confidence. He
has been in this post before, and knows exactly what a Foreign Minister can and
cannot do in Pakistan.
He needs to be reminded that there is
less space to manoeuvre than what he had last time. The Foreign Affairs
Ministry, like the so called ‘independent media’ of Pakistan has additional
checks. Apart from other checks, which includes ISI Foreign Relations Wing, now
he will have to get clearance from the CPEC Wing which was established with the
Chinese assistance, and has considerable Chinese input because Beijing holds
strings of the purse. They don’t want anyone to jeopardise the CEPC, which is
essential to China’s One Belt One Road initiative.
Perhaps being conscious of this Shah
Mahmood Qureshi was quick to say:
"I will engage with all the institutions for the betterment
of the country. It is the policy across the world. Feedback is sought from
national security institutions." 2
I did not expect him to say that he
will take dictations from the military establishment or newly established CPEC
Wing, which has a mechanism in place to protect and enhance Beijing’s interests.
He knows there are certain areas of foreign policy which are no go areas for
him, but he will not acknowledge that in public.
Generally, the army Chief of Pakistan
is perceived as Foreign Minister of Pakistan as well; and visiting foreign dignitaries
make sure they hold meetings with him. Also, when the army Chief visits other
countries, apart from meeting his counterparts, he holds important political and
diplomatic meetings.
Imran Khan’s bravery
The Foreign Minister should know that
the CPEC has become indispensable for foreign policy of Pakistan too. For
success of the CPEC, Pakistan must have a balanced foreign policy. Pakistan
cannot and must not annoy neighbours, and the world’s only superpower.
The CPEC was Nawaz Sharif’s baby, which
the military establishment wanted to adopt. Nawaz Sharif refused to relinquish
his hold, and decided to challenge the men in uniform. To him it was a civilian
project, which must be controlled and managed by them too.
No one in Pakistan can challenge might
of the army and secret agencies, and survive. Many Pakistani experts believe
that main impediment to democracy, good governance and progress is the establishment.
There was an insignificant hope when
there was a peaceful transfer of power in 2013, but that soon vanished when
Imran Khan and Dr Tahir Ul Qadri were launched to march on Islamabad. Livemint,
in its editorial noted:
‘But
since then, experts have warned of a “creeping coup”, fuelled by tensions
between the generals and three-time premier Nawaz Sharif, largely attributed to
his desire to assert civilian supremacy and seek warmer relations with
arch-rival India. Sharif, ousted in 2017 and arrested for corruption in July,
has said he and his party were targeted by the military. It denies the
allegations.’ 3
As it is noted above, in this tussle, the
men in uniform, with help of other organs of the State won – another victory
over civilian challenge. As a result, Nawaz Sharif and his daughter are in
Adiala jail. It is unlikely that another civilian leader will ever try to fight
for the civilian supremacy.
The new government must avoid showing
‘bravery’ wrongly attributed to its Captain. Mr Imran Khan must not try to
rescind the military – civilian relationship which has prevailed for the past
70 years.
In Pakistan, military - civilian
relationship was decided in October 1947, when the then army Chief General
Gracey refused to obey the orders of civilian Governor General of Pakistan,
Mohammed Ali Jinnah to attack Jammu. The Pakistan’s army Chief demanded that Mr
Jinnah should withdraw his orders, which he had to do.
Imran Khan has been hailed by his
followers as a brave man with ability to see America in eyes and defend
interests of Pakistan. They also claim that Nawaz Sharif was cowherd with no
courage to stand the pressure of America; or even pressure of India.
Imran Khan, his team and followers
accused Nawaz Sharif as ‘Modi ka yaar’, ‘traitor’ and ‘agent of India’. They
said Kulbhushan Yadev was an Indian spy who killed Pakistanis and deserved to
be hanged, but cowherd Prime Minister, a friend of Modi in order to protect his
business interests did not dare to hang this ‘terrorist’.
Nawaz Sharif was ousted in July 2017,
and after that demand of hanging of the Indian spy became less and less
important. It was only a ploy to defame an elected Prime Minister who dared to
challenge the might of the army once again.
Prior to Imran Khan, there was an
interim government, they also did not dare to take any action against the
Indian spy. ‘Brave’ Imran Khan became Prime Minister of Pakistan about two weeks
ago; and the Indian spy is still alive. Now no one even talk about his hanging.
It is not an issue now.
When Nawaz Sharif said, Pakistan should
establish friendly relations with neighbours, including India, he was branded
as a traitor; and that he wanted to safeguard his business interests. Now Imran
Khan says:
“We want peace, because Pakistan cannot prosper until the
peace is restored. If they take one step towards us, we will take two, but at
least (we) need a start.”
Didn’t Imran Khan and his mentors know that Pakistan
needs peace with neighbour. Didn’t they know that Pakistan needs to put its
house in order for peace and stability of Pakistan and the region; and to make
progress. However, at that time they were blinded with hatred of Nawaz Sharif,
and they created obstacles in the path of peace and progress.
All this clearly indicates that the
establishment with help of other powerful organs can make anyone devil or a
hero. I hope common sense prevails, and South Asia gets peace it deserves.
Diplomatic
blunders and test for Imran Khan
May be time has come sooner than expected to
show how strong and brave is Imran Khan as a Prime Minister. Normal practise in
international relations is that Chief Executive phones and speaks to his
counterpart; a Foreign Minister speaks to his counterpart.
American President did not find it appropriate
to phone Imran Khan to congratulate him on becoming the Chief Executive of
Pakistan. Instead, the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, phoned Imran Khan
and congratulated him; and expressed his desire towards a productive bilateral
relationship. The US Statement in its statement also said:
Secretary Pompeo raised the importance of Pakistan
taking decisive action against all terrorists operating in Pakistan and its
vital role in promoting the Afghan peace process. 4
This statement was rebutted by Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Mohammad Faisal, who
said:
"Pakistan takes exception to the
factually incorrect statement issued by the US State Department on today's
phone call between Prime Minister Khan and Secretary Pompeo. There was no
mention at all in the conversation about terrorists operating in Pakistan. This
should be immediately corrected." 5
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Shah
Mahmood Qureshi in his press conference in Islamabad on Friday, also echoed
similar objections, and said:
"The impression that has been given in
their press release, which mentions terrorists operating in Pakistan, is in
contrast with reality. And I say this with full confidence." 6
Pakistan,
in practise, is saying that the American Secretary of State is lying, or to put
it mildly, he is not telling the truth. Heather
Nauert, the American State Department
spokesperson, confirmed the contents of previous statement. The Spokesperson
unambiguously stated that they stood by the statement communicated to the media
earlier.
It is interesting that on issue of the American confirmation
of the original statement, the Pakistani Foreign Office said, they also stand
by with their statement made earlier.
So, what we have is an American claim what transpired
in the telephonic conversation with Imran Khan; and the Pakistani denial,
followed by the American confirmation. Pakistan also reiterated their stand. It
must be pointed out that Mike Pompeo is visiting Pakistan on 5 September 2018.
One can hardly say it is a good start to his first visit to Pakistan to talk to
the new administration of Imran Khan.
One can decide where the truth lies in accordance with
their political stands. However, in my opinion, it is highly likely that in
line with the stated policy of the Trump administration, Mike Pompeo would have
talked about situation in Afghanistan and Pakistani terrorist infrastructure
that creates problems in Afghanistan.
Pakistan cannot afford to accept existence of any
‘terrorist’ infrastructure on the Pakistani soil, especially when the country
is on the grey list of Financial Action Task Force. Once contents of the
conversation were made public, those who control relations with America must
have rebuked Imran Khan, and must have demanded a denial. This, again,
indicates who will call shots in some aspects of the foreign policy of
Pakistan. Imran Khan and Shah Mahmood Qureshi will be allowed to make
statements and decide policies related to unimportant countries.
It goes to the discredit and inexperience of Imran
Khan’s government that they committed two diplomatic blunders within a week.
With time, they will learn that making lofty claims and making unsound
allegations against virtually every notable in politics and society is
different to running a country like Pakistan.
1/ Should an ‘elected’ Prime Minister of Pakistan who
always talks big, and has accused his predecessors of not protecting Pakistan’s
dignity when dealing with America and India, have accepted a call from the
Foreign Secretary of America? Question is should this call have been diverted
to Mike Pompeo’s counterpart, Shah Mahmood Qureshi?
2/ The Indian Prime Minister sent a letter to Imran
Khan and congratulated him. He also said that India was committed to peaceful neighbourly ties with Pakistan. The
letter never said that Modi wanted to resume a new round of dialogue with
Pakistan.
Sadly, Imran Khan and his team is
always in hurry. They thought it would go well if a dialogue could start with
India. The new government read too much into the contents of the
letter; and without much consideration, the Pakistani Foreign Minister in a
statement said that India has expressed their desire to start a dialogue. He
said:
“Whether we wish or not, Kashmir is an
issue and both countries have recognised it.” 7
The Pakistani Prime Minister also communicated his wish
to start a dialogue with India; and went out of way to offer India help to deal
with floods in Kerala.
In return, India clarified, we never offered to start a
dialogue. That is a slap in the face. It clearly shows Pakistan’s eagerness to
start a dialogue with India (it was only wrong if Nawaz Sharif did it). They
totally forgot what they have been saying in the past and what are demands of
India to resume the dialogue, important as it is.
To offer of help, India did not even care to reply.
Maybe, to India it was a non-serious offer, as Pakistan has serious financial
problems; and is in no position to help a big and resourceful country like
India.
Perhaps, it will be good idea if Imran Khan seeks some
advice from experienced diplomats before he makes his statements. He needs to
understand that he is no longer on the container where he was at liberty to say
what his followers wanted to hear. Now he is the Chief Executive of a nuclear
country, which has a strong army breathing at his neck too.
He talks of ‘New Pakistan’
with new thinking, but he needs to ensure that his message is clear and
correctly conveyed to the targeted community. Also, he needs to ensure that the
powerful army is not abhorrent to his idea of new thinking and changes he
envisages.
Within the country and
outside there is a general perception that he was given the top post by the ‘military
industrial complex and it will be ready to pull the plug on him at the
slightest sign of him becoming his own man. In the ultimate analysis, Imran
Khan will remain a very insecure Prime Minister’. 8
Michael Kugelman, is Deputy Director of Asia
Program, and a Senior Associate for South Asia with the Wilson Center; and is
acclaimed as a leading specialist on Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan and their
relations with the United States. In an interview with Muhammad Akbar Notezai, who works with
popular and most credible English daily of Pakistan ‘Dawn’, he said:
‘The conventional thinking is that Khan
won’t have much of a foreign policy, given that the military tightly controls
this portfolio. And that’s true, to an extent. In reality, Khan’s views on
foreign affairs, to the extent that we know them, are fairly consistent with
those of the military: He harbours sympathies toward nefarious non-state actors
like the Afghan Taliban; he wants to resolve the Kashmir dispute; he supports
Pakistan’s deep partnerships with China and Saudi Arabia, and so on’. 9
The American Secretary of the State, Mike Pompeo is
arriving in Pakistan on 5 September, to discuss important matters related to
Pakistan, Afghanistan and the region. May be time has come for Imran Khan to
show that he is a brave man. He has more than a week to flex his muscles and
muster all his courage to face the visiting US Secretary of State, and look in
his eyes and tell him what he has been saying on the container and elsewhere.
In doing so, I hope he will protect and enhance
interests of Pakistan; and also, talk about sentiments and problems of people
of Jammu and Kashmir who are suffering on both sides of the divide.
Economic challenges
Many
economic experts, including some Pakistanis believe that Pakistan is fast moving towards very
serious financial crisis. Experts of the World Bank think, despite CPEC projects
and billions worth of Chinese investment, the Pakistani economy may only grow
at 5 percent in the current fiscal year. In the previous year, despite legal hurdles
and massive protests and attacks on Islamabad arranged by Imran Khan and Dr
Tahir Ul Qadri, Muslim League government achieved 5.89% growth.
According to media reports, the
circular debt and liabilities of the power sector have reached Rs 1,155
billion, which is all time high. If this amount is not settled, it practically
means shortage of electricity. According to the contract signed with these
private power producers by the Peoples Party government in 1990s, all incoming
governments are obliged to pay their potential to produce electricity; and not
what they actually produce, hence all-time growing so called circular debt.
There were many to appreciate Imran Khan when he said, “We have formed a bad
habit of living on loans and aid from other countries, a country must stand on
its own feet.”
Nevertheless, despite his boastful statements directed at
his followers, Imran Khan will do exactly what his predecessors did – get more
loans in name of resoling economic problems of Pakistan.
Whether he hides the begging bowl behind or bravely hold
it in front, he will have to seek financial aid urgently. He will have to sign
on the dotted line. It is possible that his media team and social media
propagandists rename this loan differently, and present it as a gift and a big success,
the bitter reality is that he has to make some tough decisions, and ordinary
people of Pakistan will suffer in due course.
Over the past months Pakistan reserves have declined
considerably, and now the country has around $2 billion, only sufficient to finance
two months of imports.
The CPEC is essential for the Beijing’s
agenda to make China great again. Now that some countries like Malaysia and Myanmar
associated with the Belt and Road Initiative, have either halted or are having
second thoughts about some of the programmes in their countries, it is
absolutely necessary that the CPEC projects in Pakistan are not halted.
If
Pakistan is forced to seek financial help from the IMF, more than likely they
will impose certain conditions that will seriously hinder the progress of the
CPEC projects. Furthermore, the IMF package may demand further devaluation of
rupee by another 10 percent, which will surely result in inflation and hardship
for people.
In view of that, China has expressed its
willingness to provide sufficient loan to prevent financial meltdown in
Pakistan. China is also encouraging Islamabad to look for alternative options.
Michael Kugelman, Deputy Editor of the Asia
Program at the Wilson Center, a US think tank commented on the situation:
"Beijing will continue to be nervous. One
of the key assurances China will want to get from Pakistan's new government is
that there will be sufficient security for CPEC and the Chinese workers helping
develop it." 10
China is not only concerned about economic and
political instability of Pakistan, but is also seriously concerned about the
security aspect. There have been many deadly attacks on workers of the CPEC
projects, which resulted in casualties of local and the Chinese personnel.
However, last week’s suicide attack,
which wounded six people, including three Chinese engineers, on a bus near the
town of Dalbandin in Balochistan Province, has unnerved Beijing. This was the
first suicide attack targeted at the Chinese. The Baloch Liberation Army, claimed
responsibility for the blast, and stated that we want:
"to warn China to vacate Balochistan and
stop plundering its resources."
At a time when Pakistan is seeking more funds
from Beijing, attack of this nature does not help the matters. If more attacks
take place, then surely it can force China to review its policy, especially
policy of sending its highly skilled personnel to Pakistan.
Alternatively, they may help Islamabad to
strengthen the security system which will add to the costs of the CPEC, and
Islamabad will have to pay for the security costs.
Soon after Imran Khan became Prime Minister,
his media team started propagating that because of Imran Khan Pakistan’s
economy has already started showing signs of improvements. I hope their
optimism becomes true. However, facts do not support their contention. Moody’s
Investors Service in its research report said:
“We find that
Pakistan’s debt affordability would weaken significantly from already low
levels in the event of a sharp and sustained increase in the cost of debt.” 11
It is reported in the Financial Times that
China is in direct contact with the Baloch rebels; and possibly offering some
incentives if the rebels don’t target the Chinese workers. Perhaps, it is still
acceptable if the rebels only target the Pakistani workers. After all, tens of
thousands of Baloch people have lost their lives, and thousands are still
missing. Perhaps, lives and dignity of local people is not that important to
some people.
More foreign
policy challenges
People have offered various logics to Imran Khan’s
self-imposed restriction that he would not undertake any foreign trips for
three months. It is possible that it is advice of his wife, a lady, who many
believe possess ‘extra ordinary ability’ to predict future; and to some extent,
influence it as well, might have told him that it is inauspicious for him to go
on foreign trips for the period stipulated.
However, I want to be positive about his announcement. Perhaps,
he wants to save money for Pakistan, or he wants to concentrate on serious
domestic problems, especially economic problems and growing balance of payment
and circular debt.
Perhaps, Imran Khan is mentally not ready yet to appear
on the world stage, and go to New York to attend the UN General Assembly
session in September; where he is bound to meet, and interact with numerous
world leaders, including possibly Prime Minister Modi.
Whatever the reason for avoiding foreign trips, it was
not necessary for him to broadcast it to the entire world. I can say with
certainty that he will have to visit some foreign countries within three
months; and if he does, many will say he has made another U turn. When he was
an opposition leader he was notorious for making U turns.
If he is serious to resolve economic problems of
Pakistan, then more than likely he will have to visit countries like Saudi
Arabia, some Gulf states and possibly China and Turkey. He needs to persuade
these countries to provide Pakistan more funds to stabilise economy; and
possibly request Saudi Arabia and Gulf states to provide cheap oil and gas.
In order to avoid going to the IMF he needs immediately
3-4 billion dollars from Saudi Arabia; and possibly same amount from other
reliable friends.
After Army Chief’s meeting with Saudi Crown Prince, it
is believed that some homework has been done. Imran Khan as, Prime Minister
needs to go and seal the deal. However, danger with that is Saudi Arabia will
also demand a big price in return. It will be the same demand which was made to
Nawaz Sharif and he declined it; and paid the price.
Saudi Arabia needs to win its war with a small Muslim
country, Yemen. Yemen is not an aggressor in this war. Pakistan is expected to
side with a country that is rich, powerful and an aggressor in Yemen. Already
former Army Chief of Pakistan, Raheel Sharif is commanding the Islamic Military
Alliance, which was not formed to fight Israel or any other non-Muslim country,
but to fight Muslims who religiously and politically differed with Saudi
Arabia.
Imran Khan is expected to go and sign on the dotted
line in order to get about 4-billion-dollar loan. Can he refuse to do it? It is
highly unlikely that he will refuse because beggars cannot be choosers. Apart
from that, if the powerful establishment has taken a decision, who is Imran
Khan to challenge it or disobey it.
Imran Khan’s highly effective media team, and media
team of the establishment will have to work hard to sell this deal to the
people. They may claim what Imran Khan has done is in the best interest of
Pakistan and Islam. They will have to convince people that security and dignity
of Makkah and Madina was in danger; and that brave Imran Khan has risked many
things to protect and enhance status of Islam.
Anyhow, if Pakistan openly joins anti Shia alliance, it
will have serious repercussions for Pakistan. Remember, Iran is a Shia country
that supports Yemen. Pakistan has a strong Shia population of around 20%.
Pakistan must try to have a balanced bilateral foreign policy; and must assure
Tehran that Pakistan is not joining any military alliance directed at Iran or
Yemen.
If on the other hand, the Pakistani establishment is
not careful, and they put all eggs in the basket of Saudi Arabia because of
material gains, then there could be serious problems for Pakistan. We may, once
again, see a kind of civil war or sectarian war inside Pakistan. Is Pakistan
ready for this?
Apart from that, Pakistan can face other serious
challenges, as major developments may take place in South Asia and in the Gulf region.
President Trump is surrounded by many domestic and
personal problems. A tried and tested solution is to start a war, which will
surely divert attention and force people to support the President. There can’t
be a war with North Korea. There is a small-scale war going on in Afghanistan,
but it is insufficient to serve the purpose. Some kind of serious tension or a
war is needed. It could be in South Asia or with Iran.
In both cases, Pakistan can be implicated in this
conflict. War or war like situation may suit America and some other countries,
but surely it does not suit Pakistan, a country with serious economic and
political difficulties.
In this context, situation in Balochistan must be
controlled by a process of dialogue, and not by use of gun. Similarly, Gilgit
Baltistan, which is not legally part of Pakistan, needs urgent attention. Hearts
and minds of people cannot be won by use of gun and oppression. Hatred and
violence breed more hatred and violence. In the last 71 years, people have
tolerated more than enough. They need healing hand; and not hatred and bullets.
Both Balochistan and Gilgit Baltistan have enormous
resources, but sadly there is growing resentment against Islamabad in both
areas, because of lack of facilities and denial of fundamental human rights.
Writer is a renowned writer and author of many
books. He is also a senior leader of UKPNP and Chairman South Asia Watch,
London.
Reference:
2. Ibid
5.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1786700/1-us-tells-pm-imran-take-decisive-action-terrorists/
6. Ibid
9. Michael Kugelman on Pakistan's Future Under
Imran Khan
https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/michael-kugelman-on-pakistans-future-under-imran-khan/
11.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/358811-pakistan-faces-elevated-external-pressures-on-cpec-imports
