Imran Khan, CPEC and Pakistan economy, Dr Shabir Choudhry

Imran Khan, CPEC and Pakistan economy, Dr Shabir Choudhry

London   26 July 2018

Now that Imran Khan is to hold post of the Chief Executive of Pakistan, with his temperament and volatile behaviour, will he be able to deliver what he promised? Evidence of the PTI rule in KPK suggests that he talks big; and his media cell is excellent is selling lies with very little positive results on ground.

He got away with that in KPK. However, he won’t be able to get away with lofty claims and erratic behaviour when he is Prime Minister of Pakistan. He will have to deliver, and deliver fast. His media team attributed many of his shortcomings in KPK to Nawaz Sharif; and his blind followers believed in that too.

I said this about 15 months ago that Pakistan will have to go back to International Monetary Fund. Also, I said, that N League government will hold out, and leave it for the newcomers to go to the IMF with a begging bowl. As usual, many used foul language against me by accusing me of being ‘anti Pakistan’.

It is wise of the interim government that they did not approach the IMF for help, despite sever pressures; and left it to new ‘elected’ government to sort out economic problems. I say it again, the new government will have no choice but to approach the IMF, whether the begging bowl is held in hand or hidden behind. It will be interesting that the man who made big claims will be the one to kneel down and seek help from the IMF.

It must be noted that President Trump strongly believes that Pakistani army and governments have deceived America; and played a double game in which the American soldiers lost their lives. No matter what explanations Pakistan give, the current President of America is not likely to accept the Pakistani position. He will, in turn, make it difficult for Pakistan.

Early this year, President Trump pronounced his policy; and within months Pakistan saw itself back on the ‘grey list’, which will create enormous problems for Pakistani economy and the CPEC related projects. Unless Pakistan abandons its old policies, and situation improves in Afghanistan, I can’t see the American policy changing towards Pakistan, and against extremists which are believed to be having safe havens in Pakistan.

If, and when, IMF is approached I can perceive harsh conditions attached to the loan package. These conditions will demand Pakistan to be transparent in many areas, especially with projects of the CPEC. They would like to control and guide Pakistani economy in accordance with their priorities.

I am convinced the Chinese won’t be very happy with the IMF demands. This is another reason, when Pakistan is in financial problems they provide more loans to overcome them. Million-dollar question is for how long China will continue to provide a safety net to Pakistani economy. The Pakistani rulers and the establishment has to put its house in order; and abandon its old policies of strategic depth, safe havens, strategic assets and use of proxies to acquire foreign policy goals.

Nawaz Sharif made a mistake of challenging the might of the army. He refused to accept their interference in key sectors of Pakistani policies. He also, did not surrender control of the CPEC to the army. As a result, he is in Adiala Jail. If aim was to weed out corruption, then many other politicians, including Imran Khan and some Generals would have been in prison by now.

The new government will have to make some harsh decisions; and may even bring a mini budget to meet challenges of IMF and ‘grey list’. Will Imran Khan, who lacks experience, be allowed to make harsh decisions, especially with regard to Afghanistan, India, Jammu and Kashmir, America and strategic assets?

I have seen people highly praising Imran Khan for expressing his desire to improve relations with India. Indeed, this should have been done many decades ago. However, when Nawaz Sharif tried to improve relations with India, the same people called him a traitor. Imran Khan and his followers also called him ‘an Indian agent’ and ‘Modi ka yaar’.

It is difficult to tell how many masks people are wearing on their faces. People say Imran Khan is ‘ladla’ and ‘blue eyed boy’ of the army establishment; but in real world of politics and government, relationship is based on personal, party and corporate interests.

In immediate future, there may not be a clash between Imran Khan and the establishment, as he will be too cautious in his approach. He knows how Nawaz Sharif was humiliated and removed. Therefore, he will not do much without a green signal from them.

But if policy of compromise and status quo is to prevail, then how will, much talked ‘tabdeeli’- change, come around. The Pakistani establishment has great experience in handling bloody civilians, and novice Imran Khan, famous for making U turns, will be no match to skills, and experience of the establishment. No matter how PTI media cell portray, Imran Khan will happily play in their lap, and continue with the policies of status quo.

Muslim League N government gave priority to Eastern route of the CPEC, and they paid less attention to the Central route and the Western route, which resulted in more grievances. What will Imran Khan do now. Will he continue with the old policy? He needs support of KPK and Punjab. With him in charge, security situation may become better, especially in KPK; and may be in Balochistan as he is perceived to be close to extremists.

If security situation improves then more attention can be given to the CPEC projects in KPK and Balochistan. However, these massive attacks during the elections in KPK and Balochistan send a clear message to the Chinese as well.

One thing is clear, Imran Khan is not going to have an easy ride, as social, economic and political problems will increase. Within a year, people will understand what quagmire they got into.

Writer is a renowned writer and author of many books. He is also a senior leader of UKPNP and Chairman South Asia Watch, London.

Email: Drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com       Twitter:  @Drshabir