CPEC, Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistani economy.
Dr Shabir Choudhry London 07 May 2017
CPEC is, no doubt, a big project with many dimensions and many targets.
It is hailed as a ‘game changer’. However, debate still goes on in Pakistan and
around the globe, in whose favour the game will change, as a weak partner in
any game, trade or pact does not dictate terms or win the game.
Many critics argue this mega project will start from an occupied
territory (East Turkistan, in view of many local people is occupied by China),
and will enter another occupied territory, Gilgit Baltistan occupied by
Pakistan; and will end in Balochistan, which, in view of many local people is
also an occupied territory. This ground reality, ignored by powerful people in
China and Pakistan could be very important for the success or failure of the
CPEC.
The CPEC has some obvious advantages. Some people and companies will
become very rich in China and Pakistan; however, very few people talk about
disadvantages which will have a great impact on all citizens of Gilgit
Baltistan, Pakistan and the region. The powerful and those who are to benefit
from this mega project ensure that every critic of the CPEC is silenced or is projected
as enemy of Pakistan; and in some cases, an agent of India or some other
countries.
Many people talk about situation in Balochistan, and what impact it may
have on the CPEC projects and future convoys going to the Gwadar port. It is
imperative to note that the situation in occupied Gilgit Baltistan is also not
satisfactory because of these reasons:
1/ People of Gilgit Baltistan, despite iron fist control of Pakistan
since 1947 and systematic brainwashing of the people, there is a strong
resentment against Islamabad; and people as a last resort, may be inclined to
pick up arms, as people of the Indian occupied Kashmir have done.
2/ Gilgit Baltistan is a disputed territory, and is part of the former
Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir. India claims this territory belongs to
them, because the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India. Not many
people take this claim seriously because, the parts of Jammu and Kashmir State
under the control of India is also considered as disputed.
In any case, India only pays lip service to its claim that territory of
Gilgit Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir belongs to them; and practically
takes no steps to get these areas back. Moreover, India doesn’t seem to be
concerned about plight of the people who live here. If New Delhi seriously and
sincerely regarded these people as their own people, then they would not sit
idle and allow innocent people to suffer.
3/ Interests of other countries in Gilgit Baltistan must not be
overlooked. Because of great strategic location of this region and abundance
natural resources, countries like India, America, Russia, and to some extent,
Central Asian countries may not like China’s military control and hegemony of
this region. Already there is a strong Chinese military presence in Gilgit
Baltistan; and the CPEC will provide an excuse to increase its military
strength to protect its enormous investment.
This will surely enable China to protect the
CPEC route; but essentially it will empower China to check and stop
infiltration of Islamic Jihadi warriors who go to the Chinese troubled region
of Xinjiang. China believes that Pakistani Jihadi groups who have bases in FATA
and other parts of Pakistan and Gilgit Baltistan train jihadi militants and
send them to China to support and lead the insurgency. Under garb of the CPEC
projects and security, China will be in a position to check and monitor
movements of these elements.
Furthermore, China will be in a position to
counter any American or Indian move to change the status quo in Gilgit
Baltistan. This move, if it comes, could well be a joint initiative of more
than one country; and one can envisage consequences and significance of such
move.
China knows very well that Gilgit Baltistan is a
disputed territory; and Pakistan has no legal right to annex these areas, or go
against the expressed sentiments of the local people. Although China does not
care about sentiments of the people inside the country, but they do seem to comprehend
power of the local people. It is believed that apart from investment in
infrastructure, they are investing in the local politics of Gilgit Baltistan,
hence some voices that Gilgit Baltistan can accede to China. This is not to
suggest that China has become a democratic and caring country. They are helping
Pakistan to silence dissent in Gilgit Baltistan and in Balochistan, as this
will help both countries to exploit natural resources of both regions.
What
leaders of Gilgit Baltistan say
It must also be noted that the situation on the Chinese side is also
less than satisfactory. There is an armed insurgency going on in Sinkiang
against the Chinese government; and it is because of this the Chinese have hired
services of the world notorious private terrorist army – Blackwater to protect
the CPEC route inside the Chinese territory.
‘Frontier
Services Group (FSG), a company that helps businesses operating in frontier
markets to overcome complex security, logistics and operational challenges,
plans to build two operational bases in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uyghur
Autonomous Region and Southwest China's Yunnan Province, Erik Prince,
executive chairman of the firm, told the Chinese Tabloid “Global Times”. 1
Resentment of the local people against Pakistani moves in Gilgit
Baltistan could be gauged from statements of different pro freedom leaders from
the region. Abdul Hamid Khan, the Chairman of the Balawaristan National
Front, and a senior leader from Gilgit-Baltistan said:
“If referendum happens people will vote for
India, they never committed atrocities on us. Pakistan imposed war on us, India
never occupied our land, Pakistan’s coward army gave Siachen to India”.
While referring to the CPEC, he said, “People are aware Gilgit-Baltistan is
disputed, by arresting few, you (Pakistan) think CPEC will be built, 42 billion
will be in your pockets, it’s a dream.” 2
Abdul Hamid Khan angrily said, "If you think by arresting 10-15
people, you will be able to suppress our movement against CPEC, it is your
dream. If Pakistan thinks that the Army
and the ISI will crush people
and make CPEC a reality by
occupying Gilgit-Baltistan, it is nothing but day-dreaming…People are aware
that Gilgit-Baltistan is disputed. The world knows that
atrocities are committed on us.” 3
There are reports
that land is acquired illegally and without paying any compensation to the
local people for the CPEC projects; and this is adding to the resentment of the
suffering people. Sad thing is, if people complain or protest against this
injustice, they are accused of being anti Pakistan and agent of India. Some
unfortunate people are facing sedition charges.
Senge Hasnan Sering, is a human rights activist and works for The
Foundation for Democracy and Rule of Law for Regions in Conflict says:
“China has a huge and long-term
presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and is building extensive roads, bridges and
telecom networks to sustain it. The drives compelling China to develop
Karakoram Corridor are diverse and mainly pertain to its economic, strategic
and political ambitions.” 4
Many thinking people and experts firmly
believe that there is a strong military aspect concealed under the garb of
economic development project. Gwadar port is controlled and managed by the
Chinese, and their military ships provide security. Also, there is a joint
naval task force to secure the port and naval trade routes.
Furthermore, there is a construction of
an army headquarters in Gilgit Baltistan; and regional headquarters for secret
agencies of Pakistan, which will make life difficult for the local people.
There will surely be more harassment and intimidation and human rights abuses
in Gilgit Baltistan. Already human rights activists and political workers
belonging to different parties face immense pressure and are subject to
torture, imprisonment; and some face sedition charges.
In 1963 China and Pakistan concluded an
agreement in which it was clearly recognised that Gilgit Baltistan was a
disputed territory. In this agreement Pakistan transferred around 2000 Sq.
miles of Gilgit Baltistan territory, Shaksgam Valley to China which enabled
China to create a link with Aqsai Chin, which they occupied in a war with in
India in 1962.
In return, China agreed to construct
the Karakorum Highway to
link the both countries; and which was to play a significant role in relations
between Beijing and Islamabad. Both countries have many common goals; and both
have been rubbing each other’s backs to advance the common agenda. However,
both governments understood the disputed nature of Gilgit Baltistan and agreed
that if another government was to become a legal owner of Jammu and Kashmir
State, including Gilgit Baltistan, then China will negotiate the new terms with
the new government about future of Shaksgam Valley. Article 6 of the Agreement clearly states:
‘The two parties have agreed that
after the settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the
sovereign authority concerned will reopen negotiations with the Government of the People's Republic of China on the boundary as
described in Article. Two of the present agreement, so as to sign a formal
boundary treaty to replace the present agreement, provided that in the event of
the sovereign authority being Pakistan, the provisions of the present agreement
and of the aforesaid protocol shall be maintained in the formal boundary treaty
to be signed between the People’s
Republic of China and the Islamic Republic
of Pakistan’. 5
Solidarity with
Gilgit Baltistan
Pakistan’s endeavours to illegally usurp Gilgit Baltistan is, by and
large, opposed by people in all regions of the divided Jammu and Kashmir State.
In this regard, political parties and civil society organisations of Pakistani
Occupied Jammu and Kashmir arranged seminars, conferences and protests in many
cities of POJK and in other countries, including in Britain, Belgium, Hong Kong
and UAE etcetera.
Short-sighted and divided people of POJK who have a large presence in
various countries of the world do not have their own media. They have to rely
on the Pakistani media to provide coverage to their political activities. One
demonstration which was held in London outside the Pakistani High Commission in
April 2017 to protest against Pakistani attempts to make Gilgit Baltistan fifth
province of Pakistan was reported by one Pakistani media channel that: ‘people
of Azad Kashmir were protesting is support of the CPEC and Pakistan’.
The pro India leadership of the Valley vehemently spoke against the
CPEC; and its implications on Gilgit Baltistan and the region. They also spoke
against Pakistan’s occupation of Gilgit Baltistan and condemned Islamabad’s
attempts to make these areas fifth province of Pakistan.
However, it was encouraging to see some leaders of the Valley of Kashmir
known as separatist leaders, speaking against Pakistan’s attempts to usurp
Gilgit Baltistan as that will have a negative impact on the Jammu and Kashmir
dispute. Some of these ‘leaders’ decided to remain quiet as they didn’t want to
bite the hand that feeds them; and has fed them for many decades.
Many people participated in a protest outside the United Nations office
in Srinagar; and expressed their annoyance against ‘Pakistan Government's
proposed move to declare Gilgit-Baltistan as that country's fifth province’.
The participants of the protest said: "Our protest is against the
Pakistan government`s order to declare Gilgit-Baltistan a fifth province. The
area from Lakhanpur to Gilgit-Baltistan belongs to Kashmiris. It should be left
to us", said Salim Akhthat Malik, Chairman South Asian Friends. 6 Mr Malik further said that their organisation intends to organise
many more such protests against Pakistan for illegally occupying areas in
Gilgit-Baltistan.
Shoaib Lone, a leader of Jammu Kashmir Forum leader expressed his views
that: "Jammu and Kashmir has its own importance as per the historical
point of view, but unfortunately large portions of land have been grabbed by
China and Pakistan. So we are here to spread the awareness that it is our
territory and we will not allow anyone to play dirty politics with our
state". 7
Many critics
call Pakistan’s venture to usurp Gilgit Baltistan as a `dark move’ of Pakistan
to make land of Gilgit Baltistan available to the Chinese Government for the
CPEC; which is one of the six key corridors under the China`s One-Road-One Belt
Initiative to link Asia with Europe.
Conclusion
The CPEC, as I have pointed out many
times in my articles, will prove to be disastrous for Pakistan, Gilgit
Baltistan and the region. However, because of more than 61 billion dollars
which, one way or the other, will come towards Pakistan, and political and
military establishment will benefit from it; so not many people dare to speak
against the CPEC or even tell the hidden dangers related to it.
I have been pointing out that the
Pakistani economy will not be able to pay back this huge loan with very high
interest rates. Despite lofty claims of economic progress, China, once again,
came to rescue Pakistani economy. Newspaper headline explains it all: ‘China bails out Pakistan with
over 1bn in loans’. The news says:
‘State-backed Chinese banks have come
to the nuclear-armed state's rescue on two separate occasions, officials have
told the Financial Times, with $900m coming in 2016, followed by another $300m
in the first three months of this year. The loans demonstrate the perilous
fragility of Pakistan's stocks of foreign currency, which have been depleted in
the past few months as imports have risen while both exports and inbound
remittances from Pakistanis abroad have fallen. 8
According to figures released by the
State Bank of Pakistan, the country’s reserves dropped to $17.1 billion at the
end of February 2017, which forced Pakistan to obtain ‘emergency loans from
outside sources to repay older loans made in foreign currencies’.
This shows vulnerability of the
Pakistani economy; and greatly increases Pakistan’s reliance on China. Many
people question if that will force Pakistan to give up some aspects of
Pakistani sovereignty; or may be lease out certain areas to China, especially
from Gwadar and from Gilgit Baltistan.
Economic experts believe that despite
the economic projections and expected competitiveness of the Pakistani economy,
the CPEC related projects will further deplete country's stocks of foreign
currency, urgently required to pay the contractors and suppliers. It must be
noted that these projects require investment and they are not producing
anything yet to support Pakistani economy; and there is very serious doubt if
the Pakistani economy will be able to compete with the cheap Chinese products.
One Pakistani economic expert Vaqar
Ahmed, Deputy Executive Director of the Islamabad-based Sustainable Development
Policy Institute, said: "Technically speaking we should have gone back to
the IMF in January (2017), but ministers are likely to try and wait until after
the election [for parliament planned for 2018]." 9
The Sharif Government is having
difficult time in office because of allegations of corruption and estranged
civil military relationship is politically not in a position to go back to the
IMF. According to the news, the ruling party Member confirmed that the
government is reluctant to go to the IMF before the General elections.
Sad thing is it was only last year that
the government returned the IMF debt which was borrowed in 2013, and boasted
that they have broken the begging bowl of the IMF. For some reason, the IMF
loan is ‘politically volatile’; and the government is reluctant to seek more
help with that broken ‘begging bowl’.
The
latest report of Moody’s Investors Service does not show a positive situation of
the Pakistani economy. In its latest report, the Highly reputable international
credit rating agency, Moody Investor Services has predicted that ‘Pakistan’s external
debt will grow to $79 billion by June this year, higher than initial estimates
suggested, and the country’s weak fiscal strength will weigh in on its ability
to afford the ever -growing debt burden’.
The
report further says, ‘that Pakistan’s challenges include a relatively high
general government debt burden, weak physical and social infrastructure, a
fragile external payments position and high political risk.’ 10 The
Nawaz Sharif government is strongly criticised for adding to Pakistan’s debt
burden; drop in exports and failure to bring in foreign direct investment.
Any negative impact on the Pakistani
economy or in any other field, always have serious effects on the people of
Gilgit Baltistan and POJK. It is because of this reason we have to take pro -
active interest in issues which have positive or negative impact on Pakistan
and the on Pakistani society. At times, some Pakistani and some people of Jammu
and Kashmir criticise me for taking interest in what goes on in Pakistan.
Unfortunately, they don’t realise that what happens in Pakistan, ultimately affects
us too. In any case, more you know about your enemy, better it is for you,
because it enables you to formulate appropriate policies to fight against its
occupation.
The CPEC will give people of Gilgit Baltistan
the following:
1/ Apart from the existing Pakistan
army institutions, Head Offices, regional offices and Military Intelligence
infrastructure we will have additional Army Head Office which is especially
raised and equipped to protect the CPEC routes; and which will ensure that
there is no danger to any of the CPEC projects. Of course, they will also have
their own intelligence network and offices etc.
2/ Apart from the Pakistani secret
agencies’ existing offices, torture centres, secret or safe houses, compounds,
facilities, infrastructures, and equipment, they will have additional offices,
training and equipment.
3/ Similarly, whatever, presence is
there of the Chinese army in Gilgit Baltistan, the CPEC projects will compel
them to increase their army strength, increase strength of their intelligence
network. They may also hire services of the Blackwater for the protection of
the CPEC route. In this regard the Pakistani governments are very generous -
they allow foreigners to kill Pakistanis, and at times, provide them with
appropriate facilities and bases and logistic support.
4/ Because of the CPEC, there will be
huge environmental problems, which will seriously affect people of Gilgit
Baltistan and the region, including Pakistan.
5/ There will be nine Special Economic
Zones along the route of the CPEC; and there will be one in Gilgit. This will
only display Chinese goods. This, in practise, will become Chinese enclaves
where there will be Chinese staff of each company displaying goods, they may
have their families, their own security, their own food stalls, cafes,
restaurants, and may be schools etc.
I can add more things to the list, but
the length is the major constraint. Anyhow, can anyone think that presence of
the above in Gilgit Baltistan will:
· Empower
local people?
· Enhance
the human rights situation there?
· Improve
the economic position of the people?
· Grant
more freedom and rights to the local people who are ruled with an iron fist
since 1947?
· Establish
technical colleges and universities?
· Alleviate
human suffering and illiteracy?
· Promote
equality and justice?
· Advance
cause of the underprivileged, especially women and the poor?
· Encourage good governance and transparency?
Reply to these questions and many more
questions, which I can add, is negative. People of Gilgit Baltistan will suffer
immensely. Their rights and freedom will be very seriously curbed, as this will
become a police state. Should I remain quiet on this or speak out against this?
It is interesting to learn that China is even considering changing name
of the CPEC in order to woo India. Luo
Zhaohui, Chinese Ambassador to New Delhi, while referring to deteriorating
relations between India and Pakistan said, China can mediate to resolve to
resolve the differences. He also said that China can ‘Even think about renaming
the CPEC’. 11
Writer is a political analyst, TV anchor and
author of many books and booklets. Also he is Chairman South Asia Watch and
Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:
References:
5.
China and Pakistan Agreement 1963, signed by Pakistani Foreign Minister Zulfikar
Ali Bhutto and Chinese Foreign Minister Chen Yi, in March 1963
7. Ibid
9. Ibid
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