Sunday, 17 December 2017

It was the Third Umpire who established Pakistan. Dr Shabir Choudhry

It was the Third Umpire who established Pakistan.
Dr Shabir Choudhry    16 December 2017
Although the term ‘third umpire’ was only used when politics of protests – dharnas started in Islamabad; and Imran Khan kept on saying that soon the Umpire’s finger will go up to dismiss the elected government. Many analysts believe this third umpire was the Pakistani establishment; or more appropriately some senior officers of secret agencies and some army Generals.

However, as more information comes to light and more research is completed, it becomes apparent that the creation of Pakistan was a British agenda. For this, the Third Umpire of the time was very active; and with his help different matters like religious, political and social matters were manoeuvred to achieve the agreed agenda of dividing Muslims and India.

Of course, in doing so, religious hatred and intolerance was promoted as a matter of policy; and this paved the way to divide India. Undivided India, with social and political stability could have been a big threat to the interests of the Britain and America.

Before we look at the Pakistan Resolution of 1940, it is pertinent to briefly look at results of 1937 elections to tell people how unpopular was Muslim League in areas of the present Pakistan. Punjab and Sindh which had the biggest support for the Muslim League and Mr Mohammed Ali Jinnah in mid 1940s, did not vote for Muslim League in the elections of 1937. This was the result of the Muslim League in 1937 elections, which was held in the British India:
Out of total of 1585 seats,
Congress won 707 seats;
Muslim League won 106 seats; but Muslim League:
·      Failed to win any seat in Sindh;
·      Failed to win any seat in NWFP; but
·      they managed to win 01 seat in Punjab. 1
The result of Punjab elections was as follows:
Unionist Party:              95 seats
Congress:                    18
Khalsa National Board:  11
Hindu Election Board:  11
Akalis:                          10
Others:                        04
Independent:               22

Pakistani leaders claim that Mr Jinnah wanted to live within the united India, but because the Congress did not share government with the Muslim League after the 1937 elections; and that forced them to demand a separate homeland for Muslims.

It is not clear on what basis the Muslim League should have been offered Ministries? They had one seat in Punjab and not a single seat from Sindh and NWFP. In a democracy if a party with the largest party is able to form a government, then why on earth they should invite an opponent to sit on government benches? Details of Muslim League progress in other Provinces is as follows:
1.   In Assam, out of total 108, Muslim League won 10 seats;
2.   In Bengal: out of 250 seats League won 37;
3.   In Bihar: out of 152 seats, League did not win any seat;
4.   In Bombay: out of 175 seats, League won 18;
5.   In Central Provinces: out of 112 seats, League won 5;
6.   In Madras: out of 215 seats, League won 9;
7.   In Orissa: out of 60, League did not win any seat. 2

Based on this result, how could Muslim League leaders and Mohammed Ali Jinnah demand a share in the governments of Provinces? Just because you head a party which is called Muslim League does not qualify you to form a government or be a partner in a government.

However, is it not interesting that out of 106 seats the Muslims League won in the 1937 elections, they had only 1 seat from the areas which form the present Pakistan. Of course, the Indian Punjab and the Pakistani Punjab were one at that time; and from that united Punjab the Muslim League managed to win only one seat.

Is it also not interesting that when the Muslim League decided to demand a separate homeland for Muslims, they held a Conference or Convention in Lahore, Punjab, from where they won only one seat; and not in the areas from where they won many seats. Why?

One possible answer is that planners of Pakistan or real creators of Pakistan wanted to establish the new country in this region, because they knew strategic importance of Punjab, NWFP, Sindh and Balochistan. It was these areas which could help them to advance their agenda.

Mohammed Ali Jinnah was obviously very disappointed with these results. According to 1941 Census, Punjab had 53.2% Muslim majority, and some districts had overwhelming Muslim majority; Sindh had 72% Muslim majority. NWFP also had overwhelming Muslim majority with very low level of literacy rate. It was 15.5% in 1972. One can imagine what would be the literacy rate in NWFP in mid 1940s, when Mohammed Ali Jinnah visited the region and spoke to them in English. How many of them understood English at that time? And without understanding what he said why they were shouting slogans in his favour. Doesn’t this illustrate that power and influence of the ‘third umpire’ achieved the desired results?

In any case, Mohammed Ali Jinnah and his other leaders were really annoyed with the outcome of 1937 elections. He was more annoyed with people of Punjab. After the elections, he reportedly remarked:
"I shall never come to the Punjab again; it is such a hopeless place." 3

One wonders what changed the situation, and how he became very popular leader in Punjab, Sindh and NWFP where traditionally, and even now votes are controlled by religious leaders –Peers and aristocrats. Ordinary people worked as peasants and they were, and to a large extent still are controlled by landed aristocrats.

Overwhelming majority of the people were illiterate as there were few schools and people didn’t have means to send their children to schools. Situation still is appalling and millions of school age children are out of schools due to poverty and lack of facilities.

It supports the view that once the British decided to relinquish their Raj in India they wanted to leave India divided, full of hatred; and that could only be achieved with help of Muslim League and Mohammed Ali Jinnah. To achieve that target, the ‘third umpire’ became active and promoted the Muslim League and their leader who could not even speak Urdu or any other local language to communicate with the people he wanted to ‘liberate’.

Question is how people understood him? It looks that Peers and aristocrats in the present Pakistan were told by the third umpire of the time to help Mr Jinnah; and they told their followers and peasants to attend public meetings and shout slogans and clap to express solidarity with the man and his mission.
Generally, Islam is in danger; and Hindus and Jews are conspiring against Islam are good slogans to win support of the Muslims. That is exactly what Mr Jinnah and Muslim League did – used name of Islam to advance their agenda. Soon after he got his Pakistan, on 11 August 1947, he said:

"You are free, free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other places of worship in this state of Pakistan…. Now I think we should keep that in front of us as our ideal and you will find that in the course of time Hindus would cease to be Hindus and Muslims would cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense, because that is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the State". 4
Doesn’t this suggest that he fooled people in name of religion, promoted religious hatred and intolerance. Once Muslims of the Indian Sub-Continent and India was divided, he reverted to his secularism. If Muslims and Hindus can be Pakistanis and could live in peace and harmony to serve the new country; then why Muslims and Hindus could not live in a country where they lived together for centuries.

All the above supports the view which was presented by Pir Pagara that it was the British who created Pakistan. He claimed that Sir Sikander Ayat met the British Prime Minister Churchill in Cairo and said for the sacrifices we Muslims have offered to the British Empire; the blood money should be a separate state for us. This matter was also confirmed by Sir Sikander Ayat’s son, Sardar Shaukat Ayat. 5

Pir Pagara said the Lahore Resolution or Pakistan Resolution of 1940 was passed on the instructions, and with approval of the British. He said this is the reality; but if you want to please people then that is a different matter. All the powerful people and landlords joined the Muslim League on the instructions of the British. 6

It is sad that wrong history has been taught to the people; and true history is mercilessly distorted, tampered and hidden. One Pakistani wrote a book called ‘Murder of History in Pakistan’. The book is not available anywhere now.

Writer is a political analyst, and author of many books and booklets. Also, he is Chairman South Asia Watch, London and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs.


2.    Ibid
3.    Source: Ayesha Jalal, The Sole Spokesman, Sang-e-Meel Publications, Lahore, 2010, p. 22
4.    (Source:Constituent Assembly of Pakistan Debates, vol 1 no 2, 11 August 1947, page 20)
6.    Ibid

Friday, 15 December 2017

CPEC will be a mega disaster, Dr Shabir Choudhry.

CPEC will be a mega disaster, Dr Shabir Choudhry.

Text of speech in a conference on CPEC in the Royal Asiatic Society on 15th December 2017.Title: CPEC, Diplomatic debt-trap or economic game-changer for South Asia?

We are here to discuss China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Some citizens of Pakistan, due to disagreements with the project, call it ‘China Punjab Economic Corridor’. Anyway, let us call it CPEC. If the CPEC was to empower people of Gilgit Baltistan, people of Pakistan, including people of Balochistan, I would have wholeheartedly supported it. Sad and bitter fact is, the CPEC has all the ingredients to bring disaster to all the areas mentioned, and for the entire region.

Surely it will make some more millionaires in Pakistan and many more in China; and I am not interested about empowerment of the rich few. I want to see what is there for the ordinary people.

Madam Chair, this is my book on CPEC. No matter how many times I say it is a Bible, it will still remain a book on the CPEC. However, there are two similarities: both are books and both are for the human beings to read.

Similarly, no matter what Pakistan and China say, the CPEC is not an economic project. It has many aspects and dimensions. Of course, it has economic aspect as well; but the salient parts are hidden and have great geo political and strategic significance.

Strategic experts say, don’t look at the intentions of your enemy, look at his ability, because intentions can change any time.

Let me give you an example. Pakistan is a country with nuclear weapons and very good delivery systems. In the process of making nuclear weapons and various delivery systems; and establishing a command and control system they must have provided employment to tens of thousands of people. Does that mean the Pakistani nuclear programme was economic in nature, because it provided employment to so many people; and still so many people are employed to take care of them?

Madam Chair, some people claim the CPEC has a strong imperialist agenda.

Mr Allah Baksh, who belongs to Gilgit Baltistan writes in his article, ‘CPEC a recipe for mega disaster’ writes and I quote:

‘Students who came out on streets dubbed the project as an illegal attempt to grab Gilgit and see it as “Road to ghulami or slavery for Gilgit Baltistan… Protesters across Gilgit suspect that the project was merely a ruse by China, in collusion with Pakistan, to take over their land and home…Diplomacy and peaceful negotiations are similarly unknown to decision makers in Pakistan. It is therefore, difficult to digest that CPEC, which is an integral part of China’s mega dream of One Belt One Road, fig leaf to expand its military and economic influence over Asia and Europe; the mission is to make China the next United States of America.’ Unquote.1

Mushtaq Mughal, a journalist and political analyst from so called Azad Kashmir, while talking about Pakistan’s attempts to change legal status of Gilgit Baltistan to satisfy Chinese concerns said: ‘Pakistan has no right to encroach territory of Jammu and Kashmir State. It will be considered territorial aggression and back stabbing. Morally and legally Pakistan will be exposed.’

Dr S Akbar Zaidi, a Pakistani scholar and author of two brilliant books on Pakistan, while speaking as a keynote speaker in a conference organised by a Think Tank, Calcutta Research Group said and I quote:

“CPEC is a part of China’s One Belt One Road initiative to expand its influence in the world and Pakistan is just the geographical space used by Beijing to reach the warm waters of the Persian Gulf. But in the process, Beijing blueprint will ensure complete control over Pakistan…It is indeed a game changer, but not in the way our ruling classes have projected it to be. It will enslave Pakistan and undermine its sovereignty”. Unquote. 2

Pakistan’s ruling elite has a long history of taking dictations from powerful allies. They accepted American dictation in certain aspects of domestic and foreign policy because of military help and dollars; but because it is not part of the topic I leave that out. However, I want to add that apart from America, Britain, Saudi Arabia and even tiny United Arab Emirates have many times influenced Pakistan’s domestic and foreign policies.

Sadly, this role, to a large extent, is taken over by China. The Pakistani ruling elite is obsessed with idea of the CPEC. China is not only making huge investment in Pakistan; they also know how to influence and manipulate Pakistan’s civil and military elite. The CPEC will further strengthen China’s position and enable Beijing to use Islamabad to advance its agenda in the region and beyond.

Dr Zaidi blames the Pakistani ruling elite for leading the country down the path of enslavement. He says: After One Belt One Road gets ready, Pakistan will become China’s colony. 3
Some analysts fear that Pakistan may become 35th province of China; or may become third special administrative economic region, like Hong Kong.

It will be pertinent to add that a Pakistani Senator Tahir Mashhadi, Chairman of the Standing Committee on Planning and Development, described the CPEC corridor “another East India Company.” 4

I am sure I don’t need to explain role of the East India Company.

Madam Chair

The CPEC will start from a less developed region of China, which in view of many local people is occupied territory; and an armed insurgency is going on there, that allegedly gets support of Jihadi warriors based in some parts of Pakistan, especially FATA.

From there the CPEC enters Gilgit Baltistan, a region which is part of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir; and is currently occupied by Pakistan. Pakistan gifted around 2000 sq miles of Gilgit Baltistan territory to China in 1963, that China can link it with Aqsai Chin which was occupied in 1962 war with India.

I know many citizens of Jammu and Kashmir State are angry on Pakistans generosity. They should realise that good friends do exchange gifts to express goodwill and solidarity. Pakistan gave that piece of land which did not legally belong to them to win Chinas friendship. Now, to strengthen its illegal occupation Pakistan is allowing Chinese troops and secret agencies to be stationed in Gilgit Baltistan.

From Gilgit Baltistan the CPEC will enter a Pakistani province of KPK, and will end in Balochistan, which many local people claim is occupied by Pakistan. Some Baloch armed groups are fighting to get independence from Pakistan. The CPEC will enable China to:

1.    Develop its underdeveloped region;

2.    Use its surplus production, apart from cement, to use it for construction of the CPEC projects; and ensure that its economy does not slow down;

3.    Have military and secret agencies stationed in Gilgit Baltistan, a territory which is disputed, and which is full of natural resources;

4.    Control of Gilgit Baltistan will enhance China’s military position because these areas have a tremendous strategic significance;

5.    Spread network of its secret agencies in various other parts of Pakistan;

6.    Crack down on jihadi warriors who travel from this region to fight in Kashgar;

7.    Play significant role in affairs of Afghanistan;

8.    Regulate many aspects of the Pakistani economy to suit its agenda;

9.    Control 9 Special Economic Zones spread in various parts of Pakistan there is one in Gilgit Baltistan. Only Chinese companies will be allowed to market their goods, which means these Special Economic Zones will become Chinese enclaves within Pakistan.

10. Lease thousands of acres of fertile Pakistani land in Gwadar and elsewhere;

11.  Exploit and control Pakistani politics and society through various mechanisms, including media, irrigation and cultural domination.

12.  Control the Gwadar port and take 91% of the profits for forty years; Pakistan will only get 9%;

13.  All the Chinese investment is 100% safe, as Pakistan has given them sovereign guarantees. This means, Pakistani government will pay back the agreed profit to the various Chinese banks and companies;
14. China will invest 56 billion dollars and in 30 years China will receive 90 billion US dollars.

15. Use Gwadar port as a naval base, which will enable China to influence sea transport and politics of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean;

16. Link with other string of pearls and advance the Chinese agenda of controlling the world economic order;

17. Use the CPEC as an alternative supply route, if there is a problem in the South China Sea, and a possible blockade of Strait of Malacca;
There are mutual benefits to both China and Pakistan, which are:

·      With the Chinese help, Pakistan will be able to crush the Baloch armed rebellion; and both countries will be able to benefit from the huge natural resources of Balochistan;

·      With presence of the Chinese troops and secret agencies, Pakistan will feel assured that there will be no Indian military adventure in Gilgit Baltistan;

·      This situation is ideal for Pakistan to silence all the voices of dissent inside Gilgit Baltistan; and even change the legal status of these areas;

·      Because of huge Chinese investment in so called Azad Kashmir and in Pakistan; and with presence of Chinese troops, India will be deterred to start a major military offensive.

 impediments to the CPEC
1.    Pakistans weak economy;
2.    Economic competition from Chahbar Port;
3.    Indias Air Cargo service to Afghanistan;
4.    Security of the CPEC route and employees;
5.    Instability in Balochistan, Afghanistan, KPK and Gilgit Baltistan.

Countries which should be worried about the CPEC:
Iran, India, America, UAE, and other Gulf States, many other countries of South East Asia and Europe.

Many Pakistani economists strongly fear that the CPEC will be economic disaster for Pakistan. Pakistans exports are down, and foreign exchange sent by overseas Pakistani and Azad Kashmiri employees is also down because tens of thousands of workers have been sent back from the Middle East, as I predicted last year. This means on top of other repayments; the Pakistani economy will have to cater for additional 3.7 billion US dollars per annum to pay the CPEC loans.

Muhammad Ishaq, a leading industrialist and a Director of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Board of Investment and Trade in conversation with Asia Times said, and I quote:
 “There is absolutely nothing in the CPEC for the local trade and industry; even the labour is coming from China, which will cause a steep escalation in the operational cost of the project…CPEC will be a big disaster for Pakistan in the long run.Unquote 5

People of KPK, Balochistan and Gilgit Baltistan are still angry with the benefits coming from the CPEC. Mr Said Alam Mehsud, head of Pakhtunkhwa Ulasi Tehrik, while talking about the official statement of the Chief Minister of KPK asserted that:

“We have not won our share in CPEC as claimed by the Chief Minister. We will not accept the ‘Punjabi corridor’ or the decisions made by the Chief Minister along with the Chinese government in Beijing.” 6

With the growing political and economic instability, there is no way the Pakistani economy can pay back the loans with such high interest rates. This could mean Pakistan may end up ceding some more land from Gilgit Baltistan to China; or making some other substantial concessions to the Chinese.

Madam Chair, how can I support a project which will exploit and oppress our people in Gilgit Baltistan; which will add to our problems and which may change legal status of this disputed territory? Furthermore, which is opposed by local people of Balochistan and KPK?

According to Senator Murtaza Wahab, Member Senate Finance Committee said on 14 December 2017:

·      Pakistani External loan is 85 Billion;
·      Pakistani exports dropped from 24 billion to 19 billion US dollars.
·      Imports are 51 billion, net deficits of 32 billion; and on top Pakistani economy has to pay 3.7 billion annually for the CPEC.

Writer is a political analyst, and author of many books and booklets. Also, he is Chairman South Asia Watch, London and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs.

1. 25/05/2017    Scoop News Jammu Kashmir
2.    Economic Times, June 12, 2017.
3.    Ibid
4.    Ibid
5.    May 1, 2017, F. M. Shakil

6.    The Express Tribune, May 1st, 2017.