Thursday 28 March 2019

India’s anti- satellite test wasn’t really about satellites


India’s anti- satellite test wasn’t really about satellites

“India has no intention to threaten anyone,” said Narendra Modi, the country's prime minister, during a successful anti-satellite demonstration Wednesday.

The modern battlefield has extended to space. Although we’re not conducting laser battles in orbit (yet), satellite systems are regularly used to guide missiles and drones to their destination, facilitate communication between soldiers on the battlefield, and spy on adversaries. Given how critical space assets are for national security, it’s hardly surprising that militaries spend a lot of time developing ways to destroy their enemies’ satellites.

On Wednesday, the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization, or DRDO, launched a missile that destroyed one of the country’s own satellites in low Earth orbit. The successful demonstration, dubbed Mission Shakti, was revealed during a live televised address from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who claimed that “India has no intention to threaten anyone.”

“The main objective of our space program is ensuring the country’s security, its economic development, and India’s technological progress,” Modi said. “India has always been opposed to the weaponization of space and an arms race in outer space, and this test does not in any way change this position.”

Mission Shakti made India just the fourth country to successfully destroy a satellite in orbit, following the US, Russia, and most recently China. Compared with the international backlash that followed China’s anti-satellite demonstration in 2007, though, the response to India’s test has been relatively subdued.
Daniel Porras, the space security fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, says this is likely because the debris from the Indian anti-satellite test poses less of a hazard to other satellites. “The Chinese demonstration was carried out at 800 kilometers and was widely condemned because of the resulting space debris, which will likely stay in orbit for decades or longer,” according to Porras. “India’s demonstration was conducted at 300 kilometers, so the debris will likely be out of orbit in months. For this reason, the reaction has been much less.”
Anti-satellite missiles are generally touted as a deterrence mechanism, rather than a primary attack vector. The idea is basically to send a message to other space-faring nations: "If you destroy our space assets, we’ll destroy yours." The problem, of course, is that the debris created by a missile ramming into an adversary’s satellite makes operating in space more dangerous for everyone, including the country that launched the missile. In this sense, every successful anti-satellite missile attack is a Pyrrhic victory.
“One thing to keep in mind about knocking out satellites with military weapons is that it creates a debris field that all commercial and military satellites of every country will have to avoid for years to come,” says Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association. Things are even worse if an anti-satellite missile is deployed during a conflict with a nuclear-armed nation. If that were the case, Kimball adds, the anti-satellite missile would be seen as an “extremely provocative step, because it could potentially mean that one side is trying to blind the other from detecting a nuclear attack.” This could, in theory, escalate the conflict toward nuclear war.
This is precisely why experts like Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at MIT, think that India’s anti-satellite test probably didn’t have much to do with satellites. From India’s perspective, its two greatest military adversaries are Pakistan and China—both of which have nuclear weapons, but only China has a robust military presence in space. Thus, Narang says, India’s anti-satellite test is difficult to make sense of because it is “both more dependent on satellites than Pakistan and it’s also less capable in a relative sense than China.”
“If Pakistan starts hitting Indian satellites, India can knock out Pakistan’s very few satellites,” notes Narang. “China can knock out all of India’s satellites whereas India cannot do the same to China. So it’s kind of a weird balance for India if it’s interested in getting into the anti-satellite deterrence game, [because] it doesn’t really have an advantage in either of its dyads.”
For this reason, Narang says that the anti-satellite test was more a demonstration of India’s ballistic missile defense system, rather than its ability to challenge adversaries in space. Although the DRDO didn’t explicitly name the type of missile used in the anti-satellite test, Narang pointed out that it likely was a modified version of the Prithvi missile, which India has been developing for more than a decade as a way to intercept incoming ballistic missiles.
Even as a demonstration of the country’s ballistic missile defense system, however, Narang says the significance of India’s achievement was way overhyped by Modi. Blowing up a satellite is much easier than intercepting a ballistic missile, which India successfully demonstrated in 2011, especially at such a low altitude. Most medium- and long-range ballistic missiles reach apogees well above 300 kilometers during their flight and have more complicated trajectories.
“In a lot of ways, an anti-satellite test is a baby ballistic missile defense test,” according to Narang. “It’s very easy to hit a satellite [because] its orbit is very predictable. A ballistic trajectory is harder because it’s coming at an angle so you have vertical and horizontal differentials you need to deal with.”
Despite its limited effectiveness as an anti-satellite weapon or a ballistic missile defense system, both Narang and Kimball saw the test as a potent political symbol as India prepares for general elections. “You can’t divorce it from the domestic politics in India,” Narang says. “It’s very provocative to do an ASAT test. It seems like this is an effort to brandish [Modi’s] security credentials with the general election coming up and in the wake of the crisis with Pakistan.” Indeed, India’s opposition party has called for a review of Modi’s announcement of the ballistic missile test to examine whether it violated election rules

Nonetheless, Kimball says the anti-satellite demonstration must be taken seriously as a space weapon. Indeed, the acting US defense secretary, Patrick Shanahan, condemnedthe test, but also said it shows why America needs to develop a Space Force. So far, there has been no official statement from the US government—a silence that Kimball says is “deafening.”
“This is a problem, whether its a friend or an adversary that conducts a ballistic missile test that destroys an Earth-orbiting satellite,” contends Kimball. “We need to be aware that when a country conducts a test of a satellite-killing technology, it’s a dangerous step. It underscores the urgent need to discuss some common-sense rules of the road for space behavior.”



‘Civil Society in Jammu and Kashmir Democracy versus Terrorism’, Presentation of Dr Shabir Choudhry in a panel discussion arranged by International Institute of Strategic Studies on 28 March 2019.


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‘Civil Society in Jammu and Kashmir  Democracy versus Terrorism’, Presentation of Dr Shabir Choudhry in a panel discussion arranged by International Institute of Strategic Studies on 28 March 2019.

Mr Chairman, friends and colleagues, peace and blessings on all of you.

Jammu and Kashmir is blessed with natural beauty and natural resources. Also, we are lucky to have two good neighbours. They tell us not to think or worry about our future, because they are doing that for us. They know what is best for us.

Also, they tell us not to feel discomfort about our identity and culture, because they are happy to give us their identity and culture.

Aren’t we, people of Jammu and Kashmir lucky?

Mr Chairman, the terrorist attack in Christchurch, once again, reinforced our contention that terrorism should not be associated with any religion or community.

Terrorists use different covers and slogans to justify their actions. In this context, they use religion to camouflage their agenda. They know people can be influenced and motivated to join them in the name of religion.

I am a practising Muslim. Should I be killed because of this?
Conversely, because I am a practising Muslim, should I kill other people?

Answer to both questions is in negative. Terrorists are enemies of people and civil liberties. As a Muslim, as a human rights activist, as a British citizen, and as a democrat, I strongly condemn terrorism in its all forms and manifestations.

Mr Chairman, Relationship between terrorism and democracy
What is relationship between democracy and terrorism, if any? Can democracy and terrorism co-exist? Can democracy eliminate terrorism? These are some of the questions which worry governments and thinkers.

Some analysts think, we may not be able to completely defeat terrorism and eradicate its infrastructure, and its sources because of complexities and nature of hybrid war and terrorism.

A true democratic system empowers people and ensures that there is peace and stability. Prime responsibility of every democratic government is to protect life, liberty and property of every citizen that people can enjoy their lives in accordance with their beliefs.

Terrorists on the other hand, challenge the democratic values and try to impose their will on people. They try to keep people in constant fear. They intentionally kill, destroy and frighten people because they think this helps to advance their agenda.

Whereas, democracies want to promote fundamental rights of all citizens, and establish law and order; terrorists, on the other hand, want to trample those rights of people, including a right to life, health, property and development. They want to create panic and instability.

Terrorism and democracy are incompatible with conflicting interests and opposing views. Democracies are under attack from terrorists, but democracies are best equipped to fight back and defeat terrorists, and those who sponsor extremism and terrorism.

In its fight against terrorist groups, a legitimate and popular democratic government can draw support from the public by granting them fundamental rights; and by winning their support.

Terrorists cannot survive and effectively function without support of some local people. If people are happy, their identities and rights are protected by the government, they will side with the legitimate government, and help them to defeat terrorism.

Mr Chairman, Positions of India and Pakistan
It is disappointing to note that extremism is on rise in South Asia, and Jammu and Kashmir is not exception to this. Some people claim a proxy war and terrorism in Kashmir started in 1989/90.
I respectfully disagree with that. The proxy war and terrorism in Kashmir started in October 1947. The Ruler of Jammu and Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh signed a Standstill Agreement with Pakistan. On 22 October 1947, Pakistan violated that written agreement, and launched a tribal attack with intention to occupy Kashmir.

This act of Pakistan was against teaching of Islam. Sura Al Maaida, Ayat no 1 says, ‘Oh people of faith, honour your pledges.’

This Islamic ruling applied to Pakistan as well. Pakistan committed an act of aggression against a small neighbour, in which tens of thousands of innocent people of Jammu and Kashmir were killed, women raped and kidnapped.

Some people propagate that legal position of both India and Pakistan is same. I disagree with that too. Pakistan entered Jammu and Kashmir on 22 October 1947:

1/ By violating a written Agreement;
2/ Against will of the Ruler of Jammu and Kashmir;
3/ With intention of occupying the territory of Jammu and Kashmir;
4/ Attackers were allowed to loot and plunder, kidnap Kashmir women and rape them.

India came to Jammu and Kashmir:

1/ On request of the Ruler of Jammu and Kashmir;
2/ After signing an agreement;
3/ With intention of protecting life, liberty, honour and property of the people;
4/ Looting, rapes and kidnapping were not permitted.

Pakistan was seen as an aggressor in Jammu and Kashmir by the International Community, that is why the Security Council Resolution of 13 August 1948 demanded Pakistan to withdraw all troops, withdraw all tribesmen and those Pakistanis who went there for purpose of fighting.

After the Pakistani withdrawal, India was asked to withdraw only ‘bulk’ of the troops.

We people of Jammu and Kashmir believe that the unprovoked Pakistani attack created a situation, which resulted in the first India - Pakistan war, and forced division of our motherland.

India came to Kashmir to drive out the invaders and protect life, liberty and property of people. India failed to do that. Instead, India is also responsible for human rights abuses in Kashmir; and their excuse is that they are fighting the terrorists.

Mr Chairman, it is not my responsibility to fights militants, whether they are Pakistanis or the local boys. I am not trained for that. It is responsibility of the Indian government to protect all citizens of Jammu and Kashmir. We continue to suffer on both sides of the divide since 1947. On Line of Control, whether a shell is fired by India or Pakistan, we people of Jammu and Kashmir suffer and get killed.

Those who want to combat and eradicate extremism and terrorism must also think of preventive measures. For example, if extremists, attack, intimidate, terrorise and even kill minorities, including Muslims with impunity in India, then it is not prudent to expect that extremism and terrorism can be successfully combatted and eradicated in a disputed and volatile State like Jammu and Kashmir.

Mr Chairman, Way forward
It is unclear, what is India’s policy towards areas of Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistani Administered Jammu and Kashmir. These area also legal and constitutional part of State of Jammu and Kashmir.

I am not part of JKLF. Yasin Malik and his party has abandoned their militant past, and have been promoting peaceful struggle. In view of that, is banning political parties a way forward in Kashmir?

Furthermore, Yasin Malik has serious health Issues, and he is in Jammu jail now. He should be getting medical treatment in hospital and not imprisonment. I hope authorities will reconsider policy on this and provide him medical support.

Despite War on Terrorism since 9/11, terrorists continue to strike in various parts of the world, including in Jammu and Kashmir and India. Terrorist attacks in India and Kashmir nearly led to a nuclear clash between India and Pakistan.

It is sad to note that both India and Pakistan are more interested in conflict management; whereas their main focus should be conflict resolution.

No party to the dispute can impose a solution by force. So first step should be to stop hostilities, and save lives. We have seen enough suffering and dead bodies.

Both India and Pakistan should pull back, and create 5 miles of no man’s land along the LOC, where people of Jammu and Kashmir can meet, socialise and discuss political, social and economic issues with the fellow citizens.

Mr Chairman, some issues of concern
I like to see peace in Afghanistan too. However, we need to learn from history. After withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan, tens of thousands of experienced jihadi fighters became unemployed. Many of them were sent to Jammu and Kashmir; and we are still suffering because of that policy.

In view of that, we need to see what will happen after complete withdrawal of the American troops from Afghanistan? One thing is for sure, there will be more intense fighting among various competing groups like Taliban, ISIS, Al - Qaeda and governments troops.

Those who use proxy warriors as a foreign policy tool, believe Jihad has to continue throughout life. In any case, they feel use of proxy warriors in name of jihad is a cheap and effective tool; so it is possible that some of these Jihadi fighters could be directed towards Kashmir again.

As the Kashmir war theatre is insufficient to accommodate all the Mujhaids, the God fathers of Jihad may find some new projects in the Central Asian countries.

Although, I support peace and dialogue, however, if India resumes dialogue with Pakistan now, won’t that be construed as a win for the Pakistani strategy of bleeding India with many cuts, and  terrorising India and the region with nuclear weapons?

·      Won’t that be seen as a success of the Pakistani tactics of using proxy warriors to promote their agenda?

·      Won’t that be perceived as a success of Pakistani policy of using religion to camouflage their strategy of promoting extremism, religious hatred, intolerance and terrorism?

·      Above all, won’t this be taken as a success of their nuclear blackmail to bring India to the negotiating table, despite a long trail of terrorist acts?

And lastly, after this success, what will be their next target? What will be the message for other aspiring regimes which don’t believe in pluralism and democratic ideals?

I thank you Mr Chairman.

I shall write down my replies to the audience in more than one hour long interactive dialogue.