Wednesday 28 February 2018

War with Pakistan is Inevitable, Dr Amarjit Singh


War with Pakistan is Inevitable, Dr Amarjit Singh
The net result of all the millions of daily discussions around the globe on India and Pakistan, the continuous flow of articles and speeches around the world on this subject, the narratives presented, terrorism in both Pakistan and India, the posturing and skirmishes between the two armies, and the trend of emotions of Indians and Pakistanis, point unequivocally to the certain future that war between India and Pakistan is inevitable, much to the dismay of all peaceniks. It is not anymore a question of “if”, but only of “when.” The desire to put Pakistan behind India and the world is driven by wanting to fully close the chapter on terrorism – to pull out a thorn and move ahead with the task of economy building – to bring peace on Earth.
The overall issues in India-Pakistan relations are deeply intertwined such that they are knotted, with historical baggage going back a thousand years, and the knots simply cannot be opened or released. Instead, the knots are feeling tighter and tighter on a daily basis as terrorism increases, and as does China’s interest in Pakistan because of CPEC, the oil of the Middle East, and CPEC’s relation to OBOR.
The Time for India to Act
The time for India to act is getting more and more difficult as the years pass. For instance, it was relatively easy for India to take West Pakistan apart soon after the 1971 war, if India had so contemplated. To imagine that the USA would have invaded India in the early 1970s, had India invaded Pakistan or not returned the 93,000 prisoners, is most unreasoned, given that the USA was deeply embroiled in a war of its own in Vietnam, right up to its neck. Hence, the threats given by the USA to India were hollow, except that our leaders were hollower. It is well known that President Nixon gave a serious threat of military intervention to India should India not return the prisoners, and warned the USSR not to intervene [1], given the history of USSR submarines trailing the 7th fleet during the Bangladesh war. The USSR buckled, and imposed upon Indira Gandhi to return the 93,000 prisoners. And, Indira Gandhi, who was a likely protégé of the USSR, preferred to pay heed to them rather than her own advisors. After all, when she declared emergency in 1975, she was given information by “heads of state” that India was in danger by “external forces”, who then suggested to her to impose the emergency, [2] upon which she ruled like a dictator, much in the image of her Soviet superiors.
In any event, India could have dismembered West Pakistan once again in the early 1980s when it was occupied with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. But, things kept getting more and more difficult after West Pakistan made its own atom bombs, and sponsored a massive terrorist action in Kashmir. Things also became psychologically difficult after two political assassinations of prime ministers in India within a short span of ten years, which upset and distracted the political mind in India.
Through the 1990s and 2000s, Pakistan’s military was inferior to India’s, and still is inferior in the 2010s. Now, the possibility of nuclear war hangs as a shadow over the subcontinent, and Pakistan seems to depend on that to avert war. But, inasmuch as there are rationale actors on both sides that may only threaten nuclear war but not use it, the only match at this point is who has inferior guts and inferior will. The logic that nuclear weapons will deter conventional war is probably a full-blown myth. [3] In other words, when war starts, Pakistan is likely to refrain from using nuclear devices.
India’s Defense Buildup
The present BJP government under PM Modi has embarked upon a major defense procurement program. The program could be better and more effective, but the build- up will assure India’s supremacy and victory in the inevitable war with Pakistan. Thus, India is buying sufficient numbers of 155 mm light howitzers and attack helicopters that are necessary and supreme in mountain warfare. A massive missile program, both indigenous and imported, promises to dent and destroy Pakistani tanks, aircraft, ships, and incoming missiles. This is coupled with a significant naval build up of frigates, submarines, submarine hunters, and additional aircraft carriers. Pakistan’s efforts pale in comparison.
As soon as the build up is substantially completed, by 2022 supposedly, and while PM Modi is likely to be in his second term, it is very plausible that India will exercise its muscle, whether Pakistan is prepared or not.
Justifications of the Pakistan Military
The Pakistani military has justified its existence in Pakistan on the basis of the Indian military threat. There are two parts to this threat, viz. (i) the Indian threat is real, or (ii) the Indian threat is imagined.
For the former scenario, Pakistan has rightly calculated that it must keep up its guard. But, to justify the latter in the eyes of the public, Pakistan must still pose as if to keep up its guard, and create a string of problems on the border with India even if none took place, so as to justify its own existence as an elite organization that is entitled to the lion’s share of the country’s resources. Hence, we see a proxy war fought by Pakistan in Kashmir that is continuing relentlessly till today. In either scenario, the Pakistani military manages to maintain an elite status for itself and its officers, garnering immense respect in the eye of the public, such that the Pakistanis have come to depend on the military, notwithstanding that Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, and Pervez Musharraff took them from one disaster to another. They have still not recovered the goodwill that Pakistan lost in the world after Musharraf’s ill-fated Kargil campaign on the world stage. But none of this daunts the Pakistani public, who depend on the Generals for their survival as a nation.
The Pakistanis Who See Through
However, there is a major segment of the Pakistani public, including intelligentsia, who understand that the present situation, starting from Pakistan’s 1948 expedition in Kashmir, is a result of Pakistani mischief. Every bit of international terrorism, the adventures in and of Kargil, 1999, East Pakistan, 1971, and the Indo-Pak war, Sept 1965 are a result of Pakistani aggression.[4] They are honestly scared that Pakistani shenanigans can spiral out of control, result in Western sanctions on Pakistan, and culminate in a Pakistan broken into pieces.[5],[6]
A Little Bit of Muscle Made a Big Difference
Recent changes in Pakistani media and a change in the tunes that Pakistanis sang, suffered a dramatic change with a small surgical strike by India. Up till now, Pakistan took as much advantage as they could of the quiet and cowardly behavior by India. Hence, Pakistan tried to press home its advantages so long as India did not retaliate – much like a bully in school keeping up his bullying tactics till confronted. The narrative on Pakistani talk shows began to change ever since the surgical strike by India, which even begs the question why India does not react more frequently, as does Israel against its belligerent neighbors. But overnight, Pakistanis went from assailing India to talking of peace. And, this happened with simply a small surgical strike by a mostly cowardly India[7]. What would happen if India did something bigger than only a surgical strike? Surely, logic would dictate that Pakistan would reform itself. Sometimes, one has to slap a child to rectify behavior.
War Scenarios
To a great extent, Pakistan draws its political strength from the voices of the public, not only its military. Hence, with a Pakistani public that sees a tiger in India rather than a mouse, the will of Pakistan stands a chance to change. Nevertheless, simply undertaking stronger and deeper surgical strikes at higher frequencies may not be the answer.
The fact is, there are multiple war scenarios, each of which cannot prevent war. An overall scenario, where the politicians on both sides, the military generals on both sides, the media on both sides, and the public on both sides do not want war is immensely hard to come by. Should only one of the above elements be lacking in either side, war is inevitable. Add to this mix, the Pakistani terrorist organizations fuelling the path to war, as well as ISI’s aid to Indian home grown terrorists.
How any adverse combinations can be stopped by political action and negotiations defeats every analyst and politician, because efforts of 70 years have failed. In fact, their efforts to reconcile India-Pakistan differences, such as the return of territories in 1965 under Russian mediation; return of 93,000 POWs and territories in 1971 under American threats; and not crossing the LOC during the Kargil war, only delayed the inevitable, and brought no good to the region or the world in the interim. It appears that only war can solve this Gordian knot that strangles both India and Pakistan. The sooner this strangulation is released, the better for all the people on both sides.
There are 48 scenarios where the above combinations have at least one antagonist on the other side. This is excluding the terrorist combination, but if you include them, certainty for war simply rises. When there are two antagonists – one on each side – war has a very high chance; when there is at least one antagonist – which is all that one really needs for war – the chances are still high. Hence, the flat probability of at least one antagonist on each side is 75%. Further, the actual probability – not the flat probability – that all elements will not want war, given the deep hostilities and in-built feelings – is practically zero.
Thus, if the voice of the Pakistani generals, or voice of the Indian public goes highly in favor of war, war stands an increased chance; if the voice of the Indian politicians or Pakistani public increases for war, then war will ensue: from the Indian side, the politicians can give a direct order; from the Pakistani side, the public pressure can be felt on their politicians and military. The same theories work on both sides.
Anyone can analyze those 48 combinations. The theory behind them is that any strong voice from among the four elements – and terrorists as the fifth element – will influence the war-making decision-makers. Even the media can have a very powerful effect on the leaders of the country, especially in a small country like Pakistan. For instance, the tit-for-tat nuclear tests by Pakistan in 1998 were influenced very strongly by the public, parliament, and the media. [8] The force in the Indian public appears particularly strong in that it wants Pakistan taken properly care of once and for all. The voices in the BJP also say the same.
Overall Chances of War
Given the inbuilt misgivings and distrust on both sides, the overall chances of war far exceed the chances of peace. The entire culture in which three generations have come up in India and Pakistan, and the continuing and misguided actions at the border, there is little to no chance to reverse this trend by trade, political deals, or person-to-person contacts. The deep differences between India and Pakistan are irreconcilable by any technique of alternate dispute resolution, despite all the efforts of 70 years.
Alas, given that the odds favor war, the question is only when, not if.
Hence, war is inevitable, and India has no choice but to arm to protect its interests – this time with the aim of overtaking Pakistan fully – and swiftly.
 The only choice India faces is about how it wishes to win the war – slowly, with pain – or swiftly, before the world wakes up – or, in fact – to lose the war by neglecting its defense, as it nearly lost at Kargil, was caught unprepared in the Rann of Kutch in 1965, and actually lost in the 1950s to China by yielding huge tracts of Kashmir to China without a shot being fired because India did not even have observation posts on its borders.[9]
Questions to also ask now, are: how well does India wish to plan the next war? Will it wait for a Pakistani or terrorist attack, or will it take the initiative on its own? Has India got the nerve and the willpower to want to move ahead or does it wish always to be pulled down in perpetuity by a Pakistan – much to the wishes of a modern China and erstwhile Great Britain?
Closure
The reading from the tealeaves is that all indicators at a political, military, public, and media perspective, points to war. At present, there is a strong call among the Indian public to demolish Pakistan and get over with the nuisance that Pakistan is. The major elements of the public, the media, the military, and the political leaders can combine in 48 different ways to create a strong, overwhelming route to war, and this is not even considering that terrorism is a strong fifth force.
Thus, war appears inevitable once again on the subcontinent. It is quite certain that the story will not finish on this till the story of Pakistan is finished in Indian eyes.
The Northlines -



Tuesday 27 February 2018

The dangerous game continues,Yasser Latif Hamdani

The dangerous game continues, Yasser Latif Hamdani

Democracy has a built in auto-correct mechanism. If we put our faith in it and let it work, in course of time, all these issues will wither away.

As I have established in my previous articles, khatme-nabuwat and blasphemy issues in Pakistan are entirely manufactured and created specifically by certain sections within what we call the deep state. Given that Pakistan is a 96 percent Muslim majority country, Islam is in no danger here whatsoever.  Nor does the holy personage of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) in any way requires defence by mere mortals who claim to act in his name. The case of Patras Masih in Lahore is yet another indication of how utterly insecure these sections are regarding their faith.  How long are we going to prove to the world that we are an intolerant and bigoted people incapable of tolerating religious difference and dissent?  Even beyond a purely human level, an empathy we must all feel, it is downright humiliating for Pakistanis like me who found ourselves away from our station in a foreign land to hear about these things.

Pakistan’s principal contradiction lies in the fact that we have an overdeveloped state with strong civilian and military bureaucracy but weak civilian representative institutions.  There are historical reasons and foremost amongst them is the fact that the British ruled large tracts of what is now Pakistan through regulations which retarded the growth of representative political institutions.  The first time the country was directly affected by the deep state when its elements roused the Majlis-e-Ahrar and Jamaat e Islami to start a country wide campaign against Ahmadis in 1953. The intended objective was to remove Khawaja Nazimuddin’s government and it was successfully achieved.  Then the same issue was repeated in 1974 but Zulfikar Ali Bhutto referred the question to the parliament which decided to declare Ahmadis Non-Muslim.  However the respite gotten from this ill-advised decision was short lived as the Nizam-e-Mustafa movement was deployed soon thereafter to get rid of Bhutto.
Pakistan’s principal contradiction lies in the fact that we have an overdeveloped a state with strong civilian and military bureaucracy but weak civilian representative institutions
With the Ahmadi issue supposedly resolved with the shortsighted 2nd Amendment and Bhutto essentially dispatched through the Nizam-e-Mustafa movement, the deep state in the 1990s found corruption as the next big stick to wield against the civilian governments, with PPP and PMLN playing a game of musical chairs in the so called lost decade.  After democracy’s return in 2008, the issue of corruption was reignited with Zardari’s Swiss bank account.  Yousaf Raza Gillani was removed as Prime Minister after first being convicted of the contempt of court.  The so called anti-corruption politics saw its culmination with the ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in the so called Panama Case.  Nawaz Sharif’s ability to rally the masses of Punjab to his cause was something the deep state did not count on.  Hence a small change in the oath contained in the filing papers between “I solemnly swear” to “I believe” was instrumentalised as a pretext to reignite the Khatm-e-Nabuwat issue, supposedly settled by the 2nd Amendment and 1984’s Ordinance XX. Imran Khan, whose last book Pakistan a Personal Journey rightly criticized Bhutto for the 2nd Amendment, has gotten on the bandwagon full on and has now declared it an international conspiracy against Khatm-e-Nabuwat by referring to Dante’s Divine Comedy as the first such effort by the evil West to try and blaspheme the Prophet.  Of course as usual he is wrong. Islam has always faced attacks by its opponents but its progress was not retarded. Meanwhile we in Pakistan have created our own versions of the heresiarch.  Edward Said addressed the issue of the attack on Islam and Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) in his classic Orientalism. It is strange and ironic that Imran Khan has referred to Divine Comedy when Pakistan too has declared the founder of Ahmadi community a heresiarch. The lack of self-awareness is incredible.
There is nothing wrong with Pakistan’s people. Most of Pakistan’s problems can be traced back to this principal contradiction in Pakistan’s political history.  There is however hope that we are about to turn a corner decisively.  Punjab, which has been the bastion of pro-military and pro-establishment sentiment, has risen up under a defiant Nawaz Sharif. The Supreme Court judgment on the issue of party leadership is immaterial.  In coming days they might try and convict Nawaz Sharif and jail him. Nawaz Sharif is roughly where Bhutto was 40 years ago but the difference is that Nawaz Sharif is from the Punjab.  The GT Road constituency belongs to him as much as the deep state.
Desperation might lead the conspirators to do something drastic. This is why Imran Khan is stoking the blasphemy fire as well. He is being handled.  The corruption issue was never strong enough to bring down Nawaz Sharif so now Imran Khan is all but accusing Nawaz Sharif of blasphemy on behest of evil western world out to destroy Islam.    This is a dangerous game that must be avoided at all costs.  We have burnt our hands so many times in it that we must tread very carefully.
All the points people make about elite capture of the electoral process, accountability, corruption, nepotism, dynasties and abuse of power are valid points.  Yet one feels that these can only be addressed after we resolve the civil military imbalance and become a functioning democracy. Democracy has a built in auto-correct mechanism. If we put our faith in it and let it work, in course of time, all these issues will wither away.  For the present though we must resist the urge to be part of the dangerous games being played.
The writer is a practising lawyer and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard Law School in Cambridge MA, USA. He blogs at http://globallegalforum.blogspot.com and his twitter handle is @therealylh
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The dangerous game continues

Democracy has a built in auto-correct mechanism. If we put our faith in it and let it work, in course of time, all these issues will wither away.


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Sunday 25 February 2018

Don’t. Stop. Gul Bukhari


Don’t. Stop. Gul Bukhari
The combination of the Supreme Court’s judgment on Nawaz Sharif’s ‘qualification’ to remain party president; its unprecedented ruling to hold all decisions of Sharif as party president including that of awarding senate tickets to his party members; and the Election Commission’s decision to not allow the PMLN to field its candidates for the upcoming senate election, cannot easily be gulped down as incidental consequences of unrelated legal or administrative decisions. First, many a president, prime minister, officer, and judge have been removed from office or their appointment declared illegal or unconstitutional in the past. But never have their actions and decisions during the holding of office been held void ab initio, even where they have taken decisions injurious to public interest. In comparison, Sharif’s decisions after disqualification from the office of the prime minister, were with regard to his own party matters not matters of government, state or public import, but were voided.
For months, political analysts have suggested that there are indications that the senate elections of 2018 will be sabotaged by undemocratic forces to the detriment of the PMLN, because given its representative standing especially in the Punjab assembly, it stands to gain an absolute majority in the Upper House. Much credibility was leant to this theory when arch enemy Imran Khan began to agitate for early general elections, followed by the bizzare toppling of the Balochistan government. The Balochistan foible was widely believed to have been engineered to deprive the PMLN of senate seats from that province, with widespread reports of harassment and terror used as tools to force change of loyalties. What lent vindication to said speculation were these two acts of the Supreme Court and the Election Commission, which appear to be aimed at political engineering. Consider: the senate candidates of the PMLN are a party’s candidates, and the party having seats in provincial legislatures has the right to field candidates for the Senate. By voiding the candidatures AFTER the deadline of Senate nominations, the Supreme Court’s decision being viewed as political and mala fide in nature by observers cannot be faulted. Even the smallest party that might attain a single seat in the senate would have been seen as damaging to the democratic project, but ousting the largest party from this democratic process is being seen not just as victimisation of a popular political party, but as travesty of justice, violation of political rights, and a fell strike on the federal nature of political representative system, given that PMLN would have gained the most senate seats from Punjab where it has overwhelming electoral majority.
In public perception, what drove the nail into the coffin of non-partisan decisions was the Election Commission’s solution to the unusual problem of what to do with the PMLN candidatures. As a leading daily’s editorial correctly pointed out – ‘ECP has opted for an astonishingly poor option’. The ECP was confronted with an unprecedented problem. The most straightforward solution would have been to allow the party chairman, who has the authority vested in him and who went to the ECP to do so, to re sign the candidates’ nominations. This would have fulfilled the so-called ‘technical’ problem arising from the Supreme Court’s decision. However, the ECP chose not to do so, gave no reasons and cited no rules. Instead, it opted to allow the PMLN candidates to register as independent candidates, stripping them of party affiliation. This creative solution has only served to re-confirm fears of a conspiracy of political engineering simply because now these senators will be free to join any party post their election, reintroducing the potential for what is locally known as horse trading: the facilitation of manipulation, bribery, blackmail and strong arm tactics traditionally associated with the establishment to bring popular leaders and parties down.
The angle that has not been discussed in detail at all, however, is the attack on the Punjabi polity, at the thwarting of its will, at its representation in the Upper House with these decisions. Given the senate is designed to provide parity of representation to all provinces, and PMLN holds circa 90 percent seats in the Punjab assembly, stripping PMLN senators of the party affiliation means stripping Punjab of representation in the senate. Should the horses get traded eventually, they will not be representing the will of this province’s MPAs who voted for them, nor by extension the will of people. Punjab voted overwhelmingly for Nawaz Sharif and PMLN, and Punjab will see this as the ultimate betrayal by undemocratic forces.
This situation becomes immediately reminiscent of East Pakistan breaking away to become Bangladesh after a horrific war between East and West Pakistan. Reason? The Bangali mandate given to Mujib ur Rehman in the 1970 general election was rejected by the Pakistani establishment, which then attacked its own East Wing to conquer its people. The similarity is as striking as it is dangerous. The widespread resentment of Baloch, Pashtun, Sindhi, and Gilgit-Baltistani polities against the establishment is no secret. Punjab, however, was its traditional bastion. Hence, the question arises, who cuts the last branch he’s sitting on left in the tree?
As if this were not enough, barely a day into this devastating blow to the province, Punjab government has been targeted via the notorious National Accountability Bureau (NAB). By carrying out the arrest in a humiliating manner of a reputedly professional, highly esteemed and accomplished officer of the Punjab government seen as close to Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the powers that be have triggered the entire Punjab bureaucracy into a protest strike. As if on cue, the establishment’s pet Sheroo pronounced the officer a ‘front man’ of Shahbaz Sharif, promising an nth press conference to provide the ever elusive ‘evidence’ against the duo’s corruption. One has seen this drill far too often to not pick up on the pattern.
The government servant in question is nicknamed ‘speedy’ for spearheading and delivering on major, highly acclaimed projects of the Punjab government. This has brought government in Punjab to near standstill, endangering the final phases of key remaining projects. This too is being eyed with intense suspicion by the public of the province, especially in light of a remark by the Chief Justice just a few weeks earlier saying he would hold up the flagship Orange Train project if health and education were not fixed first. It was commonly perceived as judicial foray into executive space and a threat to disrupt governance.
None of this bodes well for the country. We have only just witnessed the Pashtun protests and the Swat protests that were an expression of resistance to the establishment and demand for political and fundamental rights. The use of the judicial and administrative machinery for political manipulation, engineering, and thwarting of democracy itself can trigger the largest province beyond the point that damage control can be achieved. This must stop. The people own this country and they cannot be suppressed forever from their right to rule themselves through their chosen representative.
 The writer is a human rights worker and freelance columnist.
@gulbukhari