Anwar Iqbal February 15, 2018
WASHINGTON: Seventeen US intelligence
agencies have warned Congress that Pakistan will continue to slip out of
America’s influence and into China’s orbit in 2019, and will become a threat to
Washington’s interests in the South Asian region.
The review is part of an annual report
that Director of US National Intelligence Daniel R. Coats presented to the
Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, underlining worldwide threat
assessment of the American intelligence community.
The 17 agencies that jointly produced
this report include Central Intelligence Agency, Defence Intelligence Agency,
Federal Bureau of Investigation and National Security Agency.
Pakistan
In their report on Pakistan, the agencies
warned that the country will continue to threaten US interests by “deploying
new nuclear weapons capabilities, maintaining its ties to militants,
restricting counterterrorism cooperation, and drawing closer to China”.
The report claimed that Islamabad-backed
militant groups will continue to take advantage of their alleged safe haven in
Pakistan to “plan and conduct attacks in India and Afghanistan, including
against US interests”.
The agencies also warned Pakistan’s
perception of its “eroding position relative to India, reinforced by endemic
economic weakness and domestic security issues, almost certainly will
exacerbate long-held fears of isolation and drive Islamabad’s pursuit of
actions that run counter to US goals for the region”.
In a brief assessment of Islamabad’s
nuclear programme, US intelligence agencies informed Congress that Pakistan
continues to produce nuclear weapons and develop new types, including
short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, air-launched cruise
missiles, and longer-range ballistic missiles.
“These new types of nuclear weapons will
introduce new risks for escalation dynamics and security in the region,” the
report added.
India-Pakistan Tension
US agencies also expect relations between
India and Pakistan to remain tense, with continued violence on the Line of
Control and “the risk of escalation if there is another high-profile terrorist
attack in India or an uptick in violence on the Line of Control”.
India-China Tension
The agencies informed Congress that in
2019, relations between India and China will remain tense and will possibly
deteriorate further, despite the negotiated settlement to their three-month
border standoff in August.
This “elevates the risk of unintentional
escalation”, the report added.
Afghanistan
The US intelligence community expects the
overall situation in Afghanistan to “deteriorate modestly” this year in the
face of persistent political instability, sustained attacks by the Taliban-led
insurgency, unsteady Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) performance, and
chronic financial shortfalls.
The agencies warned that the National
Unity government in Kabul “probably will struggle” to hold long-delayed
parliamentary elections, currently scheduled for July 2018, and to prepare for
a presidential election in 2019.
“The ANSF probably will maintain control
of most major population centres with coalition force support, but the
intensity and geographic scope of Taliban activities will put those centres
under continued strain,” the agencies assessed.
The agencies believe that Afghanistan’s
economic growth will stagnate at around 2.5 per cent per year, and Kabul will
remain reliant on international donors for the great majority of its funding
well beyond 2018.
Russia
US intelligence agencies see Russia as
bringing pressure on Central Asia’s leaders to reduce engagement with
Washington and support Russian-led economic and security initiatives, and
believe that “concerns about [the militant Islamic State group] in Afghanistan
will push Moscow to strengthen its security posture in the region”.
Published in Dawn, February 15th, 2018
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