China-US Relations After Trump’s Visit: Cooperation, Strategic Competition, and the Emerging New World Order

 

China-US Relations After Trump’s Visit:

Cooperation, Strategic Competition, and the Emerging New World Order

Dr Shabir Choudhry, 16 May 2026, London

The evolving relationship between China and the United States remains one of the most decisive factors shaping the future global order. Donald Trump’s renewed engagement with China—whether viewed as diplomatic pragmatism, strategic bargaining, or economic necessity—has once again highlighted a reality that neither side can escape despite deep rivalry, the world’s two largest powers are too interconnected for outright confrontation.

The future of China–US relations will therefore likely be determined not by total conflict or total friendship, but by a difficult balance between cooperation and competition.

This emerging balance will influence major global questions, including Taiwan, trade, artificial intelligence, Iran, the Persian Gulf, Pakistan, India, and Jammu and Kashmir.

From “Strategic Rivalry” to Managed Competition

During recent years, the dominant narrative in Washington has portrayed China as America’s principal strategic competitor. Trade wars, sanctions, restrictions on semiconductors, military alliances in the Indo-Pacific, and tensions over Taiwan intensified mistrust between the two powers.

However, despite harsh rhetoric, both sides gradually realised several important realities:

• The American economy remains deeply connected with Chinese manufacturing and supply chains.
• China still depends on access to global markets and financial stability.
• Global crises—Ukraine, Iran, energy security, climate change, AI governance, and global trade—cannot be managed without cooperation between Washington and Beijing.

Trump’s engagement signalled that even hardline American policymakers understand that permanent confrontation with China would damage the global economy and potentially destabilise the international system itself.

Thus, a “new model of great power relations” may slowly emerge—one based not on ideological friendship but on controlled strategic coexistence.

Taiwan: The Most Dangerous Flashpoint

Despite talk of cooperation, Taiwan remains the single most dangerous issue in China–US relations.

For China, Taiwan is not merely a territorial dispute; it is linked to:

• National unity
• Historical legitimacy
• Internal stability
• The end of the “Century of Humiliation”

For the United States, Taiwan has become central to Indo-Pacific strategy and the containment of Chinese military expansion.

China’s leadership appears determined to avoid immediate war if peaceful reunification remains possible. However, Beijing also believes that any permanent movement toward Taiwanese independence crosses a red line.

Washington officially follows the “One China Policy,” yet increasing military and political support for Taiwan has raised tensions.

The future likely depends on whether both powers can maintain strategic ambiguity:

• China is avoiding military escalation
• The US is avoiding formal recognition of Taiwan
• Taiwan is avoiding an outright declaration of independence

If this balance collapses, the consequences could reshape the entire world economy.

Trade, Technology, and the AI Revolution

The future struggle between China and the United States is increasingly technological rather than purely military.

China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan reportedly focuses heavily on three transformative pillars:

1. AI Plus
2. Advanced Software Systems
3. Quantum Technology and Security

China understands that future global dominance will depend on:

• Artificial intelligence
• Semiconductor independence
• Cybersecurity
• Quantum communication
• Data infrastructure

Chinese planners reportedly envision an economy in which AI becomes integrated into nearly 90% of economic sectors, including:

• Manufacturing
• Logistics
• Defence
• Finance
• Healthcare
• Education
• Governance

This transformation reflects China’s belief that technological sovereignty is essential for national security.

“Data from the East, Consumption in the West”

One of China’s major strategic concepts involves relocating large-scale data centres and computational infrastructure to western and inland regions while consumption and commercial demand remain concentrated in the east.

This “East Data, West Computing” strategy serves several purposes:

• Reducing pressure on eastern coastal cities
• Expanding development into interior provinces
• Enhancing energy efficiency
• Protecting strategic infrastructure
• Strengthening digital resilience during geopolitical crises

Data has become the new strategic resource of the 21st century—similar to oil during the industrial age.

The nation that dominates:

• AI models
• Quantum encryption
• Data infrastructure
• Cloud systems
• Semiconductor ecosystems

will possess immense geopolitical influence.

Iran, China, Russia, and India: A New Diplomatic Triangle

The Iranian Foreign Minister’s visits to India, China, and Moscow reflect Tehran’s effort to navigate an increasingly multipolar world.

Iran seeks:

• Economic survival under sanctions
• Strategic balancing
• Recognition of its regional role
• Peaceful nuclear technology rights

China and Russia largely support Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy under international safeguards, while opposing Western attempts at regime isolation.

India, meanwhile, faces a delicate balancing act:

• Maintaining relations with the US
• Preserving energy ties with Iran
• Managing competition with China
• Protecting regional strategic autonomy

Iran’s growing ties with China and Russia may accelerate the emergence of a Eurasian geopolitical bloc less dependent on Western financial and security systems.

The Persian Gulf and Future Regional Administration

The Persian Gulf remains one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions because it affects:

• Global oil supplies
• Maritime trade routes
• Energy prices
• Military balances

China increasingly prefers stability in the Gulf because:

• It depends heavily on Gulf energy
• Regional conflict threatens Belt and Road investments
• War disrupts global trade

Unlike the United States, which historically maintained military dominance in the Gulf, China appears to favour a model of shared regional security and economic interdependence.

If Iran, Gulf Arab states, China, Russia, and even India gradually move toward cooperative regional mechanisms, the Gulf may evolve from a zone of military confrontation into one of managed strategic coexistence.

However, this transformation faces major obstacles:

• US-Iran tensions
• Israel-Iran rivalry
• Sectarian conflicts
• Competition for regional leadership

Pakistan, India, and Jammu & Kashmir

China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan remains central to South Asian geopolitics.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is not merely an economic project; it has strategic implications involving:

• Trade routes
• Energy security
• Access to the Arabian Sea
• Regional influence

India views several aspects of CPEC with suspicion, particularly where routes pass through Gilgit-Baltistan, part of the wider Jammu and Kashmir dispute.

For Pakistan, Chinese support provides:

• Strategic balance against India
• Economic investment
• Diplomatic backing in international forums

For China, Pakistan offers:

• Access to the Indian Ocean
• Regional security cooperation
• Counterbalance to Indo-Pacific containment strategies

Meanwhile, India continues strengthening ties with the United States, Japan, and Western powers as part of its broader strategic calculations regarding China.

This triangular relationship—China, India, and Pakistan—will significantly shape the future of South Asia.

Jammu and Kashmir in the Emerging Global Order

The Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains deeply connected to broader regional power politics.

China’s interests in the region involve:

• Border security
• CPEC infrastructure
• Stability in Xinjiang
• Regional connectivity

India increasingly frames Kashmir as an internal matter linked to national sovereignty and counterterrorism.

Pakistan continues to emphasise:

• UN resolutions
• Self-determination
• Human rights concerns

As China rises globally and US-China competition intensifies, Kashmir may increasingly become connected to wider geopolitical alignments.

However, none of the major powers appears interested in a direct regional war between nuclear states.

This reality may eventually push all parties toward some form of long-term managed stability, even if a final political settlement remains distant.

Sadly, despite immense suffering, very few people seem willing to discuss the fundamental rights of the people of forcibly divided Jammu and Kashmir. Much attention is given to trade, resources, economic interests, and regional strategic considerations, yet the plight of families divided since 1947 is often overlooked.

This neglect and sense of injustice can, at times, push some hot-headed individuals toward acts of violence in an attempt to draw the attention of the international community. Such actions are then condemned as terrorism, leading concerned states to introduce even harsher security policies, which frequently make life more difficult for the ordinary suffering people of Jammu and Kashmir.

Toward a Multipolar World

The global order is clearly moving away from complete American unipolar dominance toward a more complex multipolar system.

Key emerging centres of power include:

• China
• The United States
• Russia
• India
• Regional coalitions in the Gulf and Eurasia

The future international system may not be based purely on ideology but on overlapping interests, technological competition, economic interdependence, and strategic bargaining.

China’s long-term vision appears focused on:

• Technological supremacy
• Economic resilience
• Internal stability
• Multipolar diplomacy
• Strategic patience

The United States still possesses enormous strengths:

• Military power
• Financial influence
• Innovation ecosystems
• Global alliances

Therefore, the coming decades will likely witness:

• Competition without total war
• Cooperation without full trust
• Economic integration alongside strategic rivalry

Conclusion

The future of China–US relations will define the political, economic, and technological direction of the 21st century.

Issues such as Taiwan, AI, quantum technology, Iran, the Persian Gulf, Pakistan, India, and Jammu and Kashmir are no longer isolated regional matters; they are interconnected elements of a rapidly changing global order.

The central question is no longer whether the world is changing—it already is.

The real question is whether major powers can manage this transition peacefully, or whether rivalry, mistrust, and geopolitical ambition will push the world toward deeper instability.

The answer to that question may determine the future of humanity itself.

Dr Shabir Choudhry is a London-based political analyst, author, and expert on South Asian affairs, with a focus on Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Kashmir. Email: drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com

 

Cutting hair and clipping nails during the first ten days of Zil Haj. Dr Shabir Choudhry, 15 May 2026.

 Cutting hair and clipping nails during the first ten days of Zil Haj.

Dr Shabir Choudhry, 15 May 2026.

This issue is based on an authentic Hadith, but scholars differ on whether it is:

• Obligatory (wājib),
• Strongly recommended (sunnah/mustahabb),
• Or simply advisable.

The matter specifically relates to those intending to offer a sacrifice (Qurbani/Udhiyah) during the first ten days of Dhul-Hijjah.

The main Hadith is reported in Sahih Muslim:

The Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) said:

“When the ten days (of Dhul-Hijjah) begin, and one of you intends to offer a sacrifice, let him not remove anything from his hair or nails until he has offered the sacrifice.”

(Sahih Muslim, Hadith 1977 — wording varies slightly in different narrations.)

What Does This Mean?

According to this Hadith:

• A person intending to offer Qurbani should avoid:
• Cutting hair,
• Trimming nails,
• And according to many scholars, removing body hair
  during the first ten days of dhul-hijjah until the sacrifice is completed.

This ruling applies even if the person is not performing Hajj. So the practice is connected to:

• The intention of sacrifice (Udhiyah/Qurbani), not only for Hajj.

Important Clarification

This does NOT mean the person becomes like a pilgrim in the full sense.

Someone performing Hajj in the state of Ihram has many restrictions, including:

• Perfume,
• Marital relations,
• Hunting,
• Stitched clothes (for men), etc.

Those offering Qurbani while not on Hajj are only advised regarding:

• Hair,
• Nails,
• And possibly body hair.

Scholarly Opinions

1. Majority Position: Recommended, Not Obligatory

Many scholars — including scholars from the:

• The Hanafi school, and some Maliki and Shafi‘i scholars, say:

• Avoiding cutting hair and nails is recommended (mustahabb),
• But not compulsory.

According to this view:

• If someone cuts hair or nails,
• The qurbani remains valid,
• And there is no sin.

This is the position commonly followed in South Asia.

2. Hanbali Position: Obligatory

Many Hanbali scholars, based on the literal wording of the Hadith, consider it obligatory (wājib) to avoid cutting hair and nails until the sacrifice is performed.

According to this opinion:

• Deliberately cutting them without necessity is disliked or sinful,
• Though the sacrifice itself is still valid.

Why Is This Practice Encouraged?

Scholars mention several wisdoms:

• Symbolic resemblance to pilgrims in Hajj,
• Spiritual preparation,
• Humility and devotion,
• Participating spiritually in the sacred days,
• And preserving the body until the sacrifice is completed.

Some scholars also mention that every part of the body is hoped to be protected from punishment through the blessing of sacrifice, though this interpretation is more spiritual than legal.

Practical Summary

If someone intends to offer Qurbani:

• It is based on authentic Hadith to avoid cutting:
• Nails,
• Hair,
• And body hair during the first ten days of dhul-hijjah until the animal is sacrificed.

However:

• Many scholars regard this as recommended rather than obligatory.
• If someone trims hair or nails, the Qurbani is still valid.

So, people should avoid turning this issue into harsh judgment or declaring others sinful without recognising the legitimate scholarly differences. End.

Islam, Muslims, and the Crisis of Ethical Practice. “Is selling fake products halal?”

 Islam, Muslims, and the Crisis of Ethical Practice.

“Is selling fake products halal?”

Dr Shabir Choudhry, London, 13 May 2026.

A thought-provoking study conducted by Hossein Askari of George Washington University raised an uncomfortable but important question: how closely do so-called Muslim countries actually reflect Islamic principles in governance, justice, and public life?

The research, published in the Global Economy Journal, attempted to measure countries not by the number of mosques, religious slogans, or outward displays of faith, but by values that Islam strongly emphasises — justice, accountability, honesty, welfare, equality, rule of law, transparency, and ethical governance.

The findings surprised many people.

According to the study, countries considered most aligned with Islamic ethical and social principles were not Muslim-majority states. New Zealand reportedly ranked first, followed by Luxembourg, Ireland, Iceland, Finland, Denmark, and Canada. By contrast, many Muslim countries ranked far lower. Malaysia stood at 38th place, Kuwait at 48th, Bahrain at 64th, while Saudi Arabia was reportedly placed at 131st.

The purpose of the study was not to declare non-Muslim countries “Islamic” in a theological sense. Rather, it sought to demonstrate that some societies commonly associated with secular Western democracy perform better in areas that Islam itself strongly values — fairness, transparency, institutional integrity, protection of rights, social responsibility, and accountability.

This distinction is intellectually important and should not be misunderstood.

The study also highlighted a painful contradiction within many Muslim societies. Muslims are often extremely careful regarding ritual practices such as prayer, fasting, recitation of the Quran, observance of Sunnah, hijab, beards, and religious dress. Yet the same seriousness is frequently absent from public ethics, governance, honesty in trade, professional conduct, and respect for others' rights.

This criticism is not entirely external. In fact, it echoes a long-standing moral concern found within Islamic teachings themselves: that religion without justice and ethical conduct risks becoming hollow ritualism.

The distinction between outward religiosity and ethical conduct is deeply rooted in the Quran, Hadith, and classical Islamic moral thought. The Quran repeatedly connects worship with morality and social responsibility. Prayer without justice is criticised. Charity without sincerity is condemned. Oppression, dishonesty, exploitation, and abuse of power are regarded as grave sins.

One striking anecdote often quoted in discussions surrounding this issue concerns a Chinese businessman who reportedly complained that some Muslim traders requested counterfeit goods carrying labels of famous international brands. Yet when invited to share food, they refused because it was not halal. His sarcastic question was simple but devastating:

“Is selling fake products halal?”

The point behind this criticism is obvious. Islam does not limit morality to food, clothing, or ritual observance. Ethical conduct in business, honesty in trade, fulfilment of contracts, fairness in dealing with others, and respect for people’s rights are also fundamental Islamic teachings.

Historically, Muslim civilisation earned global respect not only through military or political power, but also through scholarship, trustworthiness, justice, trade ethics, and intellectual excellence.

Another widely repeated observation comes from a Japanese convert to Islam who reportedly remarked:

“In Western countries, I see non-Muslims practising the principles of Islam, while in Eastern countries I see Muslims but not Islamic behaviour.”

This statement is rhetorical, not literal. It does not mean that Western societies are Islamic in terms of faith or spirituality. Rather, it reflects the perception that some non-Muslim societies often demonstrate values such as punctuality, cleanliness, honesty, civic responsibility, rule of law, meritocracy, and respect for human rights more consistently than many Muslim-majority societies, despite their strong religious symbolism.

At the heart of this debate lies a deeper and more uncomfortable question: what is Islam?

If Islam is reduced merely to rituals and outward religious identity, then one understanding emerges. But if Islam is understood as a complete moral and social framework governing justice, honesty, compassion, accountability, dignity, and human conduct, then the discussion becomes far more serious.

One of the most important Hadiths on this subject concerns the concept of spiritual bankruptcy. The Holy Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) explained that the truly bankrupt person is not someone without wealth, but someone who appears on the Day of Judgment with prayers, fasting, charity, and pilgrimage, yet has abused others, consumed their wealth unlawfully, violated rights, spread injustice, shed blood, or caused suffering. Despite outward religiosity, such a person loses everything.

This Hadith is profoundly important because it shifts attention from appearance to character, and from slogans to conduct.

The discussion also touches upon two essential dimensions of Islam:

• Iman — faith, belief, and declaration;
• and Ihsan — moral excellence, ethical behaviour, and beauty in conduct.

Without both dimensions working together, religion becomes incomplete. A society may display visible religious symbolism while simultaneously suffering from corruption, injustice, intolerance, dishonesty, abuse of power, sectarianism, and social decay.

It is therefore argued that personal religious obligations — such as prayer and fasting — primarily concern the relationship between an individual and Allah. However, social ethics concern relationships between human beings. When justice, honesty, compassion, accountability, and respect for human dignity disappear from society, collective decline becomes inevitable.

Of course, such discussions must also be approached carefully and fairly. The problems facing Muslim societies cannot be explained solely through religious hypocrisy or moral failure. Colonialism, dictatorship, authoritarianism, economic dependency, wars, foreign intervention, and geopolitical exploitation have also played major roles in weakening institutions and destabilising many Muslim countries.

At the same time, it would be intellectually dishonest to blame every problem entirely on imperialism or external conspiracies. Some may argue that internal weaknesses within Muslim societies — including political fragmentation, corruption, decline in knowledge, authoritarianism, sectarianism, moral decay, and intellectual stagnation — also contributed to their vulnerability to colonial domination and continued decline.

This requires serious self-reflection.

Why do societies that loudly proclaim religion often struggle with corruption, inequality, intolerance, weak institutions, and social injustice?

Why do outward symbols of religiosity sometimes coexist with dishonesty, exploitation, abuse of power, and the violation of human rights?

And why has the Muslim world, despite immense religious devotion, often failed to become a global model of justice, knowledge, scientific excellence, intellectual creativity, and ethical governance?

Perhaps the answer lies not in the absence of religion, but in the failure to internalise and practise its ethical teachings sincerely and consistently.

A quotation frequently attributed to George Bernard Shaw states:

“Islam is the best religion, but Muslims are the worst followers.”

Whether Shaw said these exact words or not, the statement continues to resonate because it reflects a painful gap between ideals and reality.

The crisis facing many Muslim societies today is therefore not merely political or economic; it is also moral, intellectual, and civilisational.

No civilisation can revive itself through slogans alone.

Genuine revival requires justice, honesty, knowledge, compassion, accountability, self-criticism, and the courage to confront uncomfortable truths.

Without these values, religiosity risks becoming symbolism without substance.

The final reflection is therefore deeply self-critical:

“How can Allah grant us the ability to practise Islam when we have never sincerely tried?”

That question is not merely theological. It is moral, social, political, intellectual, and civilisational.

In conclusion, I must add that:

It is imperative to put matters in the correct perspective, because many readers may misunderstand the study.

• The study did not claim Western countries are “Muslim”.
• Rather, it argued that some Western institutions better reflect certain ethical and governance principles associated with Islam.

This distinction is intellectually essential.

This is arguably the core thesis of the entire article.

The distinction between:

• Ritual, religiosity, and
• ethical/social Islam

is deeply rooted in:

• The Quran,
• Hadith,
• And classical Islamic moral thought.

This gives the argument theological legitimacy rather than making it sound like a modern liberal critique.

This is one of the strongest parts because it directly supports the argument from authentic Islamic tradition. This authentic Hadith clearly says:

“The bankrupt person from my Ummah is the one who will come with prayer, fasting and charity, but he abused others, consumed their wealth, shed blood, and oppressed people…”

This Hadith is devastatingly powerful because it shifts focus from outward religiosity to moral conduct.

Readers need to understand that this anecdote is extremely effective because it exposes a moral contradiction in simple everyday language, and we witness this in our everyday life, and sadly, tend to ignore it.

This connects Halal consciousness with:

• Corruption in trade.
• Injustice,
• Abuse of power,
• And so many other wrongdoings.

That contrast is memorable and relatable.

It is essential to understand that some phrases are rhetorical, and not literal.

Without clarification, some readers may misunderstand it as glorification of the West or rejection of Muslim identity. The clarification makes it intellectually safer and more balanced.

Academically, it is extremely important to clarify things; otherwise, critics could easily dismiss the arguments presented by saying:

• Muslim societies suffer because of colonialism,
• Dictatorships,
• Wars,
• Economic dependency,
• Foreign intervention,
• Authoritarian states,
• And geopolitical exploitation.

 

These are bitter realities and cannot be brushed aside. It is better to acknowledge our mistakes and shortcomings. If we associate everything with imperialism, wars and dictatorship, does it mean that before the Muslim countries were colonised, there was no injustice, corruption, nepotism, hypocrisy and wrongdoings in the Muslim societies?

The counterargument could be that Muslim countries were colonised because of injustice, corruption, immoral activities, hypocrisy and wrongdoings.

A bitter reality is that the problems of Muslim societies cannot be explained solely through religious hypocrisy; colonialism, authoritarianism, economic dependency, war, and geopolitical interference, because there is a long history behind this.

Islam is not merely ritual worship because Islam strongly emphasises:

• Justice,
• Honesty,
• Compassion,
• Accountability,
• Dignity,
• And ethical public conduct.

Dr Shabir Choudhry is a London-based political analyst, author, and expert on South Asian affairs, with a focus on Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Kashmir. Email: drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com