If conflict in West Asia continues, what might the US and Israel do?
United States strategy. Dr Shabir Choudhry, London. 2 April 2026
The US typically pursues these parallel objectives in West Asian conflicts:
A. Prevent a full-scale regional war
Washington generally seeks to:
- Protect Israel and ensure Israel’s dominance in the region
- Give free hand to Israel to attack neighbours, destroy their infrastructure, occupy their land and terrorise them
- Safeguard American strategic, political and economic interests
- Avoid direct large-scale war with Iran
- Protect Gulf allies
- Keep energy routes open, especially the Strait of Hormuz
- Maintain global economic stability
Even when tensions rise, US doctrine tends to favour:
- naval deterrence
- air defence deployments
- limited targeted strikes rather than a full invasion
B. Protect Israel’s qualitative military edge
Israel remains a key strategic partner.
Possible US measures:
- missile defence support
- intelligence sharing
- diplomatic cover in international forums
- deterrence messaging to regional actors
C. Prevent nuclear escalation
The US priority is to avoid:
- regional nuclear proliferation, but let Israel develop and improve their nuclear arsenal
- collapse of non-proliferation frameworks
- wider multi-front war involving proxy actors
Israel’s likely approach
Israel’s security doctrine traditionally emphasises:
- Keep on attacking the neighbours and occupy their land,
- Continue with the old policy of killing the Palestinian people and destroying their infrastructure.
- Keep increasing Israel’s geography by attacking neighbours and call it self-defence,
- Pre-emptive disruption of perceived threats,
- Maintaining deterrence credibility,
- Preventing strategic encirclement.
Likely actions if conflict continues:
- targeted strikes on military, economic and educational infrastructure,
- cyber operations
- intelligence operations
- diplomatic engagement with Western allies
Israel usually avoids a prolonged multi-front war unless an existential threat is perceived. This means Israel and America need a ceasefire to prepare for a new wave of attacks to intimidate neighbours and expand their military and strategic objectives.
2. Impact on India and Pakistan
India
India is highly sensitive to Gulf instability because:
- A large share of oil imports comes from the Gulf region
- Millions of Indian workers live in Gulf countries
- Remittances are economically significant
Possible impacts
- Higher oil prices → inflation pressure
- Shipping insurance costs rise
- Pressure on foreign exchange reserves
- Strategic diversification toward:
- Russia
- Africa
- United States energy supplies
India also needs to revisit the wisdom of its policies of the recent past, which have harmed its international standing. A new strategy must be employed to balance relations with:
- China,
- Russia
- US
- Israel
- Gulf states
- Iran
India generally avoids direct military involvement.
Pakistan
Pakistan faces:
- energy import vulnerability
- foreign exchange constraints
- domestic economic pressure
- diplomatic balancing between:
- China
- Gulf countries
- United States
- Russia
However, Pakistan has played its diplomatic cards extremely well and has enhanced its standing at the international level.
Pakistan often promotes mediation diplomacy in regional tensions.
Could India and Pakistan clash militarily?
Direct military confrontation between India and Pakistan over a West Asia conflict is unlikely but not impossible.
Reasons:
Why unlikely
- Both face economic pressures
- Nuclear deterrence creates restraint
- International actors discourage escalation
- Both militaries avoid multi-front risk
Possible indirect tensions
- naval presence competition in the Arabian Sea
- intelligence rivalry
- diplomatic positioning
- influence competition in the Gulf states
However, if somehow Pakistan is dragged into the West Asian conflict, or Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan further deteriorate, India may take advantage of the situation and try to settle the score with arch-rival Pakistan.
3. Impact on CPEC and BRI
China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
CPEC is part of the wider:
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Belt and Road Initiative
Risks from prolonged conflict
- Maritime insurance costs rise
- Investor caution increases
- Regional instability affects timelines
- Security costs increase in the Gwadar region
- Energy price volatility affects project economics
Strategic advantages for CPEC
If Gulf instability persists:
Gwadar may gain importance as an alternative logistics node linking:
China → Pakistan → Arabian Sea
Long-term, strategic corridors become more valuable when chokepoints are unstable.
4. If the West Asian conflict continues, will China continue its current policies?
China generally follows long-term strategic continuity.
China’s likely priorities:
A. Energy security diversification
China imports energy from:
- Middle East
- Russia
- Central Asia
- Africa
China prefers:
multiple supply routes to reduce dependence on any single chokepoint.
B. Stability preference
China typically supports:
- diplomatic resolution
- non-interference principle
- negotiated settlements
Instability disrupts trade flows critical to China’s growth model.
However, in my view, Beijing will not stand as a spectator and let a close ally like Pakistan and Iran sink because it will have a serious impact on their economic and strategic agenda.
C. Gradual geopolitical expansion through economics
BRI strategy is based on:
- infrastructure
- trade connectivity
- financial integration
China often avoids direct military involvement unless core interests are threatened.
5. Big picture scenario outlook
If conflict remains limited:
- Oil prices volatile but manageable
- Shipping routes adapt
- Diplomacy intensifies
- Proxy tensions continue
If conflict expands regionally:
- global energy markets disrupted
- Inflation rises worldwide
- Shipping security becomes a major concern
- Alternative corridors gain importance
- Geopolitical blocs become more defined
6. Key strategic takeaway
Short-term:
Hormuz stability remains critical.
Medium-term:
Countries diversify supply routes.
Long-term:
Connectivity projects like CPEC and BRI gain strategic relevance but require stability to succeed. END.
