London, August 2026.
At last, Pakistan may be preparing to do
what India did in 2019: change the constitutional and administrative status of
the part of Jammu and Kashmir under its control.
India changed the status of Jammu and
Kashmir in August 2019, when it revoked the territory's special constitutional
arrangements and reorganised the former state into the Union Territories of
Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. Pakistan has consistently condemned that action
as unilateral and illegal, arguing that India cannot alter the status of a
disputed territory through its domestic constitutional arrangements.
Pakistan has repeatedly maintained that
Jammu and Kashmir remains an internationally recognised disputed territory
whose final status must be determined in accordance with the relevant United
Nations Security Council resolutions and the will of its people. Indeed, as
recently as August 2026, Pakistan's Foreign Office reiterated that position and
described Jammu and Kashmir as an internationally recognised disputed
territory.
Yet there is now an intriguing
possibility that Pakistan itself is considering a major constitutional
transformation of the territory it administers as Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
I have received a document circulating
through journalistic and political sources which proposes the creation of a “Province
of Jammu and Kashmir.” I have not been able independently to establish the
authenticity or official status of this document. It may be a working paper, an
internal proposal, a political draft, or simply a proposal being circulated by
interested individuals.
Nevertheless, it deserves serious
examination because several of the ideas contained in it are consistent with a
wider constitutional debate that is now taking place in Pakistan.
A
changing political environment
There is already a publicly documented
discussion about changing the constitutional relationship between Pakistan and
the territories it administers in Jammu and Kashmir.
In July 2026, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari
argued in the National Assembly for direct representation of Azad Kashmir
and Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan's federal Parliament. He has also
advocated provisional provincial status for Gilgit-Baltistan while maintaining
Pakistan's stated position on the Kashmir dispute.
On 17 July, the Gilgit-Baltistan
Assembly unanimously passed a resolution calling for provisional provincial
status, representation in the National Assembly and Senate, and other
federal constitutional institutions. Importantly, the resolution stated that
such provisional status would be without prejudice to Pakistan's position on
the Jammu and Kashmir dispute and relevant UN resolutions.
This is significant.
The debate is therefore no longer
hypothetical. There is an active political movement towards greater
constitutional integration of Gilgit-Baltistan, while serious voices are also
discussing a new constitutional relationship between Pakistan and Azad Kashmir.
A Dawn editorial/commentary
published in July went further, suggesting that Pakistan may need to consider de
facto provincial status for AJK and GB on an interim basis, provided this
did not prejudice Pakistan's position on the Kashmir dispute.
It is against this background that the
alleged proposal for a “Province of Jammu and Kashmir” needs to be examined.
1. The biggest change: from a disputed or special
territory to a province
At present, Azad Jammu and Kashmir has
its own constitutional and institutional framework. The alleged proposal would
replace that arrangement with a conventional Pakistani provincial model:
Governor →
Chief Minister → Provincial Assembly →
High Court → Supreme Court of Pakistan
That would represent a fundamental
constitutional transformation. The proposed name is particularly significant:
“Province of Jammu and
Kashmir.”
It is not simply “Province of Azad Jammu
and Kashmir.” Why does the terminology matter?
Because Pakistan has historically
maintained that the entire State of Jammu and Kashmir is disputed and that its
final disposition remains unresolved.
If the territory administered by
Pakistan were formally designated the Province of Jammu and Kashmir,
Pakistan would be integrating the territory into its constitutional structure
while simultaneously maintaining its claim over the remainder of the State.
This would create an unusual
constitutional arrangement.
2. The 65-seat Assembly
According to the document circulating,
the proposed Jammu and Kashmir Provincial Assembly would have 65 seats.
Of these:
- 35 would be general seats representing the districts
of present-day Azad Kashmir;
- 6 would represent refugees from Jammu and the
Kashmir Valley living in Pakistan;
- 24 would remain vacant for the territory of Jammu
and Kashmir presently under Indian control.
The document proposes that only 41
seats would initially be active, with elections taking place for those
seats.
The 24 remaining seats would apparently
be kept vacant until what the document describes as independence and
reunification, after which elections would be held for them.
This is perhaps the most politically
intriguing element of the entire proposal.
It appears to attempt to achieve two
objectives simultaneously:
First:
constitutionally integrate the territory currently administered by Pakistan.
Second:
preserve Pakistan's claim over the remaining territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
The 24 vacant seats would symbolically
represent the part of Jammu and Kashmir that Pakistan claims but does not
administer.
3. What would happen to the AJK Supreme Court?
The proposed judicial changes are even
more consequential.
According to the document, the Supreme
Court of Azad Jammu and Kashmir would be abolished.
The proposed High Court of Jammu and
Kashmir would become the highest court within the province, but appeals against
its decisions would go to the Supreme Court of Pakistan.
That would effectively bring the
judicial system of the territory directly under Pakistan's federal judicial
structure.
This would be a major constitutional
change.
It would also raise an obvious question:
If Azad Kashmir is still regarded as a
disputed territory, why should its highest judicial authority become an
institution of Pakistan?
Conversely, proponents of integration
would argue that if the people of AJK are to enjoy the same constitutional
rights as citizens of Pakistan's provinces, they should also have access to the
same federal judicial institutions.
This is precisely why the issue cannot
be dismissed as merely administrative because it concerns the fundamental
constitutional identity of the territory.
4. Representation in Pakistan's Parliament
The proposal provides eight seats for
the new Province of Jammu and Kashmir in the National Assembly of Pakistan.
- Muzaffarabad Division — 2
- Mirpur Division — 2
- Poonch Division — 2
- Additional/reserved federal seats — 2
Senate
will have 12 seats for the new Prrovince
The stated purpose is to provide AJK
with representation equal to that enjoyed by Pakistan's other provinces. This
would be a major change.
At present, one of the principal
grievances in AJK is that decisions taken by important federal institutions
affect the territory without its people having corresponding representation in
those institutions.
That concern has become increasingly
prominent.
A recent Dawn analysis
specifically noted that AJK lacks representation in important constitutional
forums such as the Council of Common Interests, National Economic Council,
National Finance Commission and Indus River System Authority, and suggested
that the question of interim representation in Pakistan's federal structure
needs serious consideration.
Thus, the demand for representation has
a genuine constitutional basis. The important question is what form that
representation should take.
5. The refugee seats
The proposed reduction of refugee seats
from the existing arrangement is also significant.
The issue of the refugee seats has
already become one of the most contentious constitutional questions in AJK.
The 12 seats reserved for refugees from
Jammu and the Kashmir Valley residing in Pakistan were a major issue during the
recent political agitation. Any change to the existing arrangement requires
constitutional amendment, and the issue has generated serious political
controversy.
The alleged proposal would apparently
replace the existing arrangement with six refugee seats, while creating
24 vacant seats for the rest of Jammu and Kashmir.
That is not simply an adjustment to
electoral representation. It appears to be an attempt to redesign the
political meaning of representation itself.
6. What about Gilgit-Baltistan?
The developments in Gilgit-Baltistan are
relevant because they appear to form part of the same broader constitutional
debate.
The Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly has
unanimously demanded provisional provincial status, including representation in
the National Assembly and Senate. It specifically stated that such status
should not prejudice Pakistan's position on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.
The
All Parties Hurriyat Conference's AJK chapter has also supported provisional
provincial status for Gilgit-Baltistan, provided that such a change does not
prejudice the Kashmir dispute or the relevant United Nations resolutions.
On 19 July 2026, Dawn
reported that the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC-AJK),
the Azad Jammu and Kashmir chapter, publicly supported granting provisional
provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan, provided that it did not
prejudice the Kashmir dispute. The statement was made at a press conference at
the Gilgit Press Club by APHC-AJK Convener Ghulam Muhammad Safi
and General Secretary Parvaiz Shah.
More
specifically, Dawn
reports that Parvaiz Shah said the APHC had examined the GB Assembly's
resolution and was reassured by its wording that the proposed status would be “without
prejudice to the United Nations resolutions on the Kashmir issue.”
He said the APHC therefore endorsed the demand.
This
position is particularly noteworthy because the individuals who publicly
endorsed the proposal have long been regarded by sections of the Kashmiri
political movement as closely aligned with Pakistan's security establishment.
Their personal political histories and affiliations therefore merit scrutiny
when assessing the significance of this statement.
Reference:
Jamil Nagri, “APHC backs GB provincial status,” Dawn,
19 July 2026. Dawn article
This is important because it
shows that the concept of provisional constitutional integration is
increasingly being discussed as a way of reconciling two apparently conflicting
objectives:
Giving people political and
constitutional rights within Pakistan, while maintaining Pakistan's
international position on the Kashmir dispute. Whether that contradiction can
actually be resolved is another question.
7. Can a disputed territory become a province?
This is the central constitutional and
political question.
Pakistan's official position is that
Jammu and Kashmir remains disputed and that its final disposition must be
determined in accordance with relevant UN resolutions and the will of the
Kashmiri people. Pakistan reaffirmed exactly this position in August 2026.
But if Pakistan incorporates the
territory it administers into its constitutional structure as a province,
critics will inevitably ask:
How can a state claim that a
territory is disputed while simultaneously treating that territory as an
ordinary province?
The answer offered by supporters of
provisional integration is likely to be that the status would be temporary
and without prejudice to the final settlement.
That is precisely the argument being
made in relation to Gilgit-Baltistan. But it must be noted that temporary
arrangements tend to become permanent; and many analysts regard this as a first
step towards a permanent occupation.
Once a population is given
representation in the National Assembly and Senate, once federal laws apply
directly, once the Supreme Court of Pakistan becomes the final judicial
authority, and once the territory is treated administratively as a province, reversing
that arrangement would become politically extremely difficult.
Therefore, the word “provisional”
may have considerable political significance, but it does not necessarily
eliminate the long-term consequences.
8. India did something similar in 2019—but not
identical
There is an important distinction that
must not be lost.
India's 2019 reorganisation was a
unilateral constitutional and administrative decision affecting the territory
under Indian control. Pakistan condemned it vigorously.
Pakistan's alleged proposal would
concern territory under Pakistani administration and would be presented by
Pakistan as an internal constitutional reform.
The two situations are therefore not
identical. However, there is a broader similarity:
Both involve changing the constitutional
and administrative arrangements of a territory whose international status
remains disputed.
That is why Pakistan needs to consider
very carefully the argument it has itself repeatedly made about India's 2019
actions.
If unilateral constitutional changes
cannot alter the international status of Jammu and Kashmir on the Indian side,
Pakistan may also face questions about the consequences of unilateral
constitutional changes on the territory under its control.
9. The people of Azad Kashmir must not become pawns
again
The most important question, however, is
not whether Pakistan can technically amend its Constitution. It is:
What do the people of Azad
Kashmir want?
For decades, the people of Jammu and
Kashmir have been treated as objects of policy by larger powers.
·
India has its Kashmir policy.
·
Pakistan has its Kashmir policy.
·
The international community has its Kashmir
policy.
But the people whose lives have been
divided, whose families have been separated and whose political future has
remained uncertain for generations are often treated as secondary to these
competing national interests.
The recent unrest in AJK demonstrated
the depth of public dissatisfaction with the existing political and economic
arrangements. The government has itself acknowledged the disruption caused by
the protests and the need to address public grievances.
The subsequent elections have brought a
new political configuration, with the PML-N securing a large majority according
to official Pakistani statements.
But an election does not automatically
settle the deeper constitutional question. A large number of the local people
believe that the elections were rigged and that both political parties that won
the seats are Pakistani parties. They only care for Pakistani interests and do
not represent the aspirations of the vast majority who do not want to join Pakistan,
and who are practically denied participation in any fair elections.
10. Is this really about good governance?
Supporters of provincial integration
will undoubtedly argue that the existing system has failed and that AJK needs:
- Stronger democratic representation;
- An independent Legislative Assembly;
- Abolition of the unfair Karachi Agreement and Act
74;
- Both of these were imposed upon AJK by the powerful
authority;
- Greater economic and political rights;
- And better governance;
- State Bank of Azad Kashmir;
- National Grid for Azad Kashmir
These are legitimate demands, and people
who propose these demands MUST NOT be perceived as traitors and agents of some
foreign country.
But there is another possibility.
Could constitutional integration also be
designed to strengthen Islamabad's political, administrative, economic and
security control over AJK?
That question must be asked. There is a
profound difference between:
Giving the people of AJK greater
democratic rights, and absorbing AJK into Pakistan's constitutional structure
without allowing its people to determine the political future of their
territory.
The former could strengthen democracy. The
latter could simply strengthen central control.
11. The most dangerous possibility
The most dangerous outcome would be for
the people of Azad Kashmir to discover that their recent suffering and
political agitation had been used as a justification for a constitutional
settlement designed somewhere else.
If the purpose of constitutional reform
is genuinely to empower the people, then they must be consulted.
If the purpose is merely to change the
administrative label while retaining the same political, military and economic
control, then changing the name from Azad Jammu and Kashmir to Province
of Jammu and Kashmir would accomplish very little for ordinary people.
1. A
Governor instead of an existing constitutional head does not automatically
create democracy.
2. A
Chief Minister does not automatically create autonomy.
3. Members
of the National Assembly do not automatically create self-determination.
4. And
a provincial flag, legislature or administrative structure cannot by itself
resolve the fundamental political question of Jammu and Kashmir.
12. The constitutional irony
There is also an extraordinary irony
here.
For decades, Pakistan has accused India
of attempting to “integrate” Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir into
India.
Now, if this alleged proposal is
implemented, Pakistan could find itself explaining why its own constitutional
integration of the territory under its administration is fundamentally
different.
Perhaps there are legitimate
constitutional arguments for the distinction. But those arguments must be
presented openly and consistently.
Otherwise, Pakistan risks being accused
of applying one principle to India and another to itself.
Conclusion: What is really being proposed?
At present, we should be careful.
I cannot confirm that the
65-seat “Province of Jammu and Kashmir” document is an official Pakistani
government proposal.
But it would be equally wrong to dismiss
the broader issue as mere fantasy, because there is now substantial evidence of
a serious and growing debate over the constitutional future of both AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Gilgit-Baltistan's elected Assembly has
formally demanded provisional provincial status. Pakistan's political
leadership has publicly discussed direct federal representation for AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Also, commentators have openly raised the possibility of de facto provincial
status for AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan.
And Pakistan's military spokesperson has
said that structural changes should not automatically be ruled out if required
for better governance, provided they are undertaken through constitutional,
legal and political processes.
All this clearly indicates that something
has changed in the political atmosphere. The question is no longer simply
whether AJK needs reform. The real question is:
Is Pakistan preparing to redefine
its constitutional relationship with Azad Kashmir fundamentally?
If the answer is yes, then the
consequences will extend far beyond the structure of a provincial assembly.
They will affect the constitutional
identity of Azad Kashmir, Pakistan's position on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute,
India's response, the United Nations dimension, and—most importantly—the
political rights and future of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
The people of Jammu and Kashmir have
suffered for nearly eight decades because others have repeatedly made decisions
about their future.
Whatever constitutional arrangement is
now contemplated, it must not become another decision made about Kashmir
without the meaningful participation of the Kashmiri people; and that is the
central issue.
Not whether the territory is called a
province. Not whether it has a Governor or a President. Not whether it has 41
seats or 65. The fundamental question is:
Who has the right to decide
the political future of Jammu and Kashmir? And that question
cannot be answered merely by changing a constitutional label.