The Taliban are Betraying Trump's Peace Deal

by Con Coughlin
November 27, 2020 at 5:00 am

• 
  While Mr Trump has fulfilled his side of the bargain by overseeing a significant reduction in America's military presence from 9,000 to 4,500 troops since the deal was signed, the Taliban has been less forthcoming in terms of honouring its side of the deal.

• The upsurge in Taliban violence certainly raises significant questions about whether Afghanistan's security forces will be able to defend the country once American forces have been withdrawn, with US forces due to be reduced to 2,500 by early next year.

• There are also concerns that, if the Taliban succeeds in seizing control of large swathes of the country, they could allow Islamist terror groups like Al-Qaeda to return and use the country as a base from which to launch attacks against the West -- the initial cause of America's military intervention following the September 11 attacks.

• The fear now is that, if Mr Trump and his senior advisors are no longer in a position to conclude the peace deal he negotiated earlier in the year, then the Taliban will simply take matters into their own hands and seize control of the country by force.

The rapidly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan prompted US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to make a surprise visit this month to Doha, Qatar, where he had talks with representatives from the Taliban and the Afghan government in an attempt to get peace negotiations back on track. Pictured: Pompeo meets with Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Doha, on November 21, 2020. (Photo by Patrick Semansky/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

The latest spate of terror attacks carried out by the Taliban in Afghanistan suggests that the terrorist organisation remains determined to seize control of the country through violence rather than by negotiating a peace agreement with the democratically-elected Afghan government.

Under the terms of the historic agreement that the Trump administration signed with the Taliban in February, Taliban leaders undertook to negotiate a lasting peace deal with President Ashraf Ghani's administration in Kabul.

The aim of the deal, so far as US President Donald Trump was concerned, was to end America's long and costly involvement in the Afghan conflict which, most recently, dates back to the September 11, 2001 attacks, and has claimed the lives of more than 2,300 US military personnel and cost the American taxpayer nearly $1 trillion.

As part of the agreement, the US undertook to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan on the understanding that the Taliban would cut all ties with international terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS), and engage in a sincere dialogue with the Afghan government to formulate a lasting peace agreement.

While Mr Trump has fulfilled his side of the bargain by overseeing a significant reduction in America's military presence from 9,000 to 4,500 troops since the deal was signed, the Taliban has been less forthcoming in terms of honouring its side of the deal.

Initial efforts to establish a dialogue between the Taliban and the Afghan government -- which was excluded from the initial negotiations between the US and the Taliban -- stalled over the Taliban's insistence that the Afghan authorities first release 5,000 of its supporters from prison.

It was not until September, therefore, when the prisoner release had finally been completed, that the talks began in earnest. In the meantime the Taliban maintained its campaign of terror against the Afghan people, including an attack on a hospital maternity ward in Kabul in May that left at least 24 people dead, including newborn infants and many mothers.

Nor does there appear to have been any let-up in Taliban-inspired violence since the talks finally got underway in Doha, Qatar.

After the UN reported last month that there has been no reduction in civilian casualties since the start of peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, security officials are now reporting an upsurge in Taliban violence, especially in the south of the country, the organisation's long-standing stronghold.

In recent weeks the Taliban has intensified its campaign against Kandahar, while an assault on Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province, was only beaten back with the help of US air strikes.

The rapid expansion in the Taliban's ability to commit violent acts throughout the entire country is demonstrated by recent analyses that it has succeeded in carrying out attacks and bombings in 24 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, leaving scores dead.

The upsurge in Taliban violence certainly raises significant questions about whether Afghanistan's security forces will be able to defend the country once American forces have been withdrawn, with US forces due to be reduced to 2,500 by early next year.

There are also concerns that, if the Taliban succeeds in seizing control of large swathes of the country, they could allow Islamist terror groups like Al-Qaeda to return and use the country as a base from which to launch attacks against the West -- the initial cause of America's military intervention following the September 11 attacks.

The rapidly deteriorating security situation prompted US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to make a surprise visit earlier this month to Doha, the Qatari capital, where he had talks with representatives from the Taliban and the Afghan government in an attempt to get the peace negotiations back on track.

As if to underline the seriousness of the situation, Mr Pompeo arrived in Kabul just hours after a deadly rocket attack on the city, an act the Afghan government blamed on the Taliban, and which claimed the lives of eight people and wounded more than two dozen.

Mr Pompeo's visit, during which he met with the Taliban's chief negotiator, Mullah Baradar, was aimed at breaking the deadlock in the negotiations between the two sides, amid claims that one of the main obstacles to concluding a deal is a dispute between the Taliban and the Afghan government over the future role of Islam in Afghan politics.

The fear now is that, if Mr Trump and his senior advisors are no longer in a position to conclude the peace deal he negotiated earlier in the year, then the Taliban will simply take matters into their own hands and seize control of the country by force.

Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute
.

Should Pakistan recognise Israel?

Should Pakistan recognise Israel? Dr Shabir Choudhry June 2003 

(I wrote this as a report on a request of the Foreign Ministry of Pakistan in February 1999. Later on, I made changes to the report and published it as an article in June 2003. Many people will find it interesting, but foot soldiers may have a different view.) 

President Mushharaf’s visit to Camp David has started more than one controversy and his alleged ‘sell out’ on Kashmir and on other issues including doing a deal on the recognition of Israel. His invitation to Camp David was important and will have a far reaching impact on the politics of South Asia and the Middle East. It is believed that President Musharraf, if he plays his cards correctly and wisely, will play a major role in years to come. 

We people of Kashmir and people of Pakistan might not like everything he is asked to do, and everything he has pledged to do; but he and his close colleagues think they know better and that they are doing everything in the best interest of Pakistan and Muslims. 

As a writer and a student of history, with strong feelings on the issue of Kashmir, I do not agree with many things he is doing, especially related to Kashmir; nor I agree with Kashmir policy of any of his predecessors. But as far as his policy on the issue of Israel and controlling and containing the threat of extremism and fanaticism is concerned, he has my full backing. 

Many people give in to emotional feelings when they talk of Kashmir and Israel. And any decision clouded by emotional feelings could have serious consequences, therefore it is prudent for all concerned to look at the ground realities, and take decisions with political maturity and demands of the 21st century in mind. 

On the issue of recognition of Israel I wrote the following article about three years ago, and I think under the present debate, it still has some valid points; hence I am presenting the article as it was written at that time. Dr Shabir Choudhry 

Careful study of relationships between various countries indicates one solid rule in international relations: A country’s foreign policy is determined by its national interest. 

The above rule is applied everywhere in the world, and this is why there are no permanent friends or foes in international politics. Today’s friends could well be tomorrow’s adversaries.

When one analyses Pakistan’s foreign policy, it becomes clear that Pakistan’s foreign policy does not follow the above internationally recognised rule. One notes that Pakistan’ foreign policy is too slow to change to meet the requirements of constantly changing world politics, hence Pakistan’s national interest is compromised. This is because Pakistan’s, foreign policy is dominated by emotions, traditions, and too much reliance on ‘friends’, not appreciating the above rule, that there are no permanent friends in world politics. 

The aim of this short article is not to analyse the entire foreign policy of Pakistan but to explain that Pakistan needs to make certain much required changes to its foreign policy. Nation states can choose friends but cannot choose its neighbours. So it is imperative to have a friendly and cordial relationship with them. I don’t need to explain what Pakistan has lost as a result of bad relationships with India, Russia (USSR) and Afghanistan. Pakistan must have good relations with its neighbours in order to reap full benefits. 

Pakistan’s foreign policy is full of blunders, and one such blunder, is to win the animosity of Israel and worse still to perpetuate it. And without doubt Pakistan has lost more from this. Today’s world politics is controlled and directed by international capitalism, and we all know that Jews dominate all these institutions. Is it prudent to continue this policy when Pakistan is at the mercy of these institutions? Some statistics to support the above point: 

• We very much rely on the American support in every walk of life. There are 83 top brains, which control and direct American political, social, economic and military policies, and 45 of them are Jews. More than half of the remaining 38 have direct influence over them. The remaining has indirect influence or they could be cajoled to adopt a particular line. 

• There are 600 multi - national companies, which control International Capitalism. Jews own Three hundred of these, whereas Jews control 420 of them. The remaining multi nationals could be persuaded to take a specific line on certain matters. 

• Many would say Pakistan’s stand is a principled one- in accordance with the Islamic ideology. The fact is Pakistan took this stand in support of Palestinians and Arabs who also opposed the emergence of Israel, and the plight of the Palestinians. 

If the stand was against the unfair treatment and cruelty to Palestinians then why did not Pakistan take a stand against Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon when they also butchered the Palestinians. The reason is these countries were Muslim and ‘friendly’ to Pakistan. (In the case of Jordan, Pakistan helped to ‘butcher’ the Palestinians in 1970). An Islamic principle demands that Muslims who are suffering must be helped and supported, and Pakistan should have helped Palestinians not the Jordanian government. 

If the Islamic principle was to be held then Pakistan should have had a different policy towards America, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Iran, India, Afghanistan, Russia etc. 

If this principle is relaxed because perpetrators are either Muslim or too powerful and it is not prudent to stand up for this principle. Then why Pakistan has to stand up for this principle in support of Arabs and Palestinians when they themselves have abandoned it. These countries have abandoned it because they think it is in their national interest to do so. Egypt did that despite the plight of the other neighbours and the Palestinians. 

Pakistan supported them, and continued to do so even though it is not in the national interest to continue with this policy anymore. Pakistan wholeheartedly supported the Arabs and the Palestinians against Israel and won Israel’s animosity, and has lost considerably in every walk of life. Pakistan had a similar situation with India – wars and war like situations throughout her short history. Have the Arabs and the Palestinians reciprocated by supporting Pakistan wholeheartedly? Arabs and the Palestinians are friendlier to India than Pakistan. India has a better political and economic relationship with them. It doesn’t even occur to them that Pakistan can also provide more or less the same services currently provided by India. 

Some Arabs and Palestinians have become friends of Israel a long time ago and Pakistanis who went out of their way to support them appear to be ‘idiots’. They have adopted foreign policy to suit their national interests, and Pakistan continues to support the policy, which they have abandoned and get animosity from Israel. Is there any logic in that? 

Moreover Pakistan has a ‘principled’ stand over Kashmir. What these countries have done to support Pakistan. 

1. They all have political, diplomatic and good economic links with India. 

2. At times these countries pay lip service in support of Pakistan without endangering their political, diplomatic and economic interests. Is it not possible for Pakistan to learn from this? 

What should Pakistan do 

1. Support them but at the same time have diplomatic, trade and military links with Israel, and see how Pakistani interest can be protected and enhanced. 

2. By doing this Pakistan would benefit immensely, at least Israeli opposition to Pakistan would be neutralised. And this itself will go long way to protect Pakistani national interest 

3. As it is clear, this act would not be in the interest of Pakistan government, but one should see what is in the long interest of Pakistan, rather than the government. 

4. By becoming friendly, Pakistan may have more chances of influencing over Palestine and other issues. 

No government in the past had the courage, necessary control or the will to take such a decision. It seems that this government has the courage and nerve to take unpopular decisions. It has full control over the levers of powers and can take the necessary decision. If this government, for whatever reason, did not take a much needed decision then it would be years before any other government could even dare to think about it. 

National interest of Pakistan demands that the following two matters are resolved as soon as possible: 

• Resolution of the Kashmir dispute 

• Recognition of Israel 

Writer is a Chairman of JKLF Diplomatic Committee, and author of many books and booklets on Kashmir. 

Pakistan is not afraid of India, Dr Shabir Choudhry

Pakistan is not afraid of India.

Dr Shabir Choudhry       21 November 2020

 

Vast number of Pakistanis are brainwashed into believing that their army is the number one army in the world, exceptionally courageous, patriotic and invincible. Also they believe that their prime secret agency, Inter Service Intelligence, is number one in the world, and that other secret agencies and countries are afraid of Pakistan.

 

These Pakistanis also believe that their nuclear bombs, including tactical nuclear devices, and the delivery system and other missile systems are unique and best in the world. They believe that even in a conventional war, the Pakistan army will surprise everyone, and they will capture Jammu and Kashmir and could possibly hoist a Pakistani flag on the Red Fort.

 

I had a difficult conversation with one middle ranking officer of the Pakistan army. He angrily said:

 

‘We are not afraid of India. We are smaller than India. We have less resources, but we are better fighters, more committed and are capable of defeating India; and  don’t give me an example of 1971. It was a political defeat. We are a totally different army now, highly trained and disciplined. We are a battle hardened army with strong dedication, religious fervour and patriotism. In the next round of war we will surprise India and other adversaries. There must be a reason why people regard us as the best army in the world’.

 

I said the army that has lost all the wars is the best, but what about the armies which have not lost any war. Are they not highly trained and disciplined?

 

‘India did not win in 1947, in 1965 or in the Kargil war’, he retorted. ‘In 1971, it was a political defeat; and don’t forget, India lost in 1962 war with China too’.

 

I replied, I did not even mention India. Why are you so obsessed with India. I know the Pakistani soldiers are very brave and dedicated, but war strategies are formulated by the Generals, and I am not sure if they have the same kind of commitment and passion for a war with India.

 

He was clearly not happy with what I said. His reply was: ‘I know what was in your mind. You may be knowledgeable in other fields, but your knowledge on the Pakistan army is very basic’.

 

It was my turn to interrupt him, I said, ‘OK, I am not an expert on Pakistan army, but I have read many books written by the retired Pakistani army officers, and other Pakistani writers. Tell me why your brave army Generals released the Indian pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, who came to inflict damage and kill people in Pakistan? A few weeks ago it was a talk in Pakistani social and political circles about wet paints, sweat and shaking legs after the threat of Indian reprisals. If you people are so brave, why legs were shaking, and why the pilot was immediately released; and why Pakistani establishment was begging China, Britain, American, Saudi Arabia and even tiny UAE to intervene and save Pakistan from the Indian attack’.

He tried to  interrupt me, but I continued, ‘If that was a good - will gesture, as they claim. It was a desperate gesture to appease India, or neutralise the Indian anger. If you are so kind hearted, then why don’t you demonstrate a similar good will gesture and release missing people who were abducted from various parts of Balochistan and KPK? Why not release political prisoners of Gilgit and Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir’.

 

As there was no reply to the above, and it was too much for his tolerance and ego, he used a swear word and disconnected the phone. It is good that we were holding this conversation on the phone, otherwise he would have attacked me physically.

 

I can agree that the Pakistani soldiers and middle ranking officers are very dedicated and brave, however, the same cannot be said about the senior officers. The top brass of the army know their strength, dedication and their resources; and international support which is crucial in wars. They also know what resources India has, how strong is their army, and what international support they have, and even among the Muslim countries.

 

Pakistan learnt many lessons from the defeat of 1971, and formulated  new strategies to teach lessons to India. One such strategy was never to have a full scale war with India. Instead, use proxies to bleed India with thousand cuts, hit India economically and divide the Indian society on religious lines to justify the creation of Pakistan and its existence.

 

They have engaged India not only in Jammu and Kashmir, but also in other parts of India. With a systematic campaign, they bled India, and generated so much hatred that the majority of people of Pakistan, Kashmir, so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan see India as a culprit.

 

Pakistani and their supporters in Kashmir POJK and Gilgit Baltistan think it is India which has started a proxy war against Pakistan, and they are behind all wrong doings in Pakistan. So much so that if someone sells a donkey meat or fake medicine in Pakistan, these stalwarts of Pakistan will accuse India for that.

 

With active support and help of China, Pakistan engaged India at different levels. At the same time, Pakistan spent a huge amount of money to develop its nuclear capability, improving delivery system, missiles, air force and submarines. They have also developed a second strike ability in case of a nuclear war.

Experts estimate that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is around 150 bombs, more than enough to cause havoc in the region and the world. They have the ability to develop more than 40 more warheads. 

 

To care, protect and develop strategies for the nuclear weapons, Pakistan has created a special division for the nuclear weapons, called Strategic Plans Division. It is believed that the most of these weapons are stored in very safe places, like in the Punjab Province, and not in KPK which is unstable and under the influence of the Taliban and extremists.

 

Pakistan can effectively deliver nuclear weapons on target by land, air and sea. They have also developed a second strike capability, which according to some Pakistani experts, enable Pakistan to fight a nuclear war, if that becomes an issue of the country's survival.

 

Pakistan’s top bureaucrat, Roedad Khan, in his book, ‘Pakistan a Slave State’ wrote about wars:

 

‘It is incontestable that economic power, more than anything else, determines the outcome of a long - drawn - out war but this is not true of short, lightning wars lasting for a few weeks only like the three wars fought by India and Pakistan. The outcome of

such short wars is determined more by military organization, preparedness, leadership, and national morale’. 1

 

He further said that because Pakistan is economically weak with nuclear weapons, and is not in a position to fight a long war with India, therefore, Pakistan for its survival must prepare for a short and a defensive war with India. 2

 

Outcome of any war, short or long, is determined by a talented and determined army leader and superior technology. The Indian army is larger than that of Pakistan. Also their air force, navy and other weapons have clear superiority over Pakistan. Indian economy and international standing is much better than Pakistan.

 

Pakistani nuclear bombs could be delivered on target by land, air and sea. Pakistani Jet fighters capable of delivering nuclear bombs have to penetrate Indian air space, which is not that easy because of India’s air defense system. In view of this, Pakistan is more than likely to use land and sea if the situation demanded.

 

For the land delivery system, Pakistan can use Hatf  mobile missiles, which include ‘the solid-fueled Hatf-III (180 miles), solid-fuelled Hatf-IV (466 miles) and liquid-fuelled Hatf V, (766 miles)’. The Shaheen missiles could also be used to deliver nukes on target, especially in faraway areas. 3

 

From sea, Pakistan can use Babar cruise missiles to deliver the nuclear bombs on targets. Babar 2 can also be used by seal and land. In January 2020, Pakistan successfully tested, Babur-3, which in view of Kyle Mizokami ‘would be the most survivable of all Pakistani nuclear delivery systems’. 4

 

Despite this nuclear muscle and formidable conventional strength and dedication of the fighting force, the army leadership is not convinced that they can defeat India in a conventional war. They prefer to use proxies to keep India bleeding in Kashmir and elsewhere.

 

This is not to suggest that Indian hands are clean and that India does not interfere in matters of Pakistan. No matter what pressure India applies on Pakistan, or for that matter, what the international community says about the Pakistani policy of using proxies to advance their agenda, the establishment of Pakistan very bravely, under different pretexts continue to use their proxies to commit acts of violence and terrorism.

 

That is a big success of the Pakistani strategy. They have been bleeding India by using proxies (no need to mention Afghanistan) for many decades. India picked up dead bodies, treated injured, tolerated economic loss, stomached national pride, and bravely issued threats which they were not capable of carrying out.

 

The Pakistani ruling elite knew that these were just threats. It is like a naughty boy troubles a teacher in a classroom, and the teacher gives certain threats to the child to discipline him. The child laughs, and continues with his mischief in the class.

 

Similarly, each time a big event takes place, India says enough is enough, if it happens again, we will retaliate. People who matter in Pakistan smile at this, and continue with their mission. Another incident takes place, and India once again condemns it, and warns Pakistan not to do it again or face reprisals. This goes on without a break.

 

Pakistan’s top army officers are conscious of this fact they cannot fight a conventional war with India for too long. Use of tactical nuclear weapons is not a sensible or a serious option, because the consequence of that is too dreadful to contemplate.

 

In view of this, fall back for the Pakistani army is to get support from China; either Chinese direct involvement in the war or seriously engage India on multiple points along the LAC.

 

We can appreciate Pakistan’s ‘bravery’ when it comes to India. However we request the Pakistan establishment to let us live in peace. We people of the divided State of Jammu and Kashmir want to live in peace. We have no animosity with India or Pakistan.

 

Please don’t kill us by the LOC firing. It doesn’t matter who starts the firing, we the people of the divided state suffer on both sides of the divide. This policy must stop, and stop immediately so that our people can get some relief.

In this regard, we request Pakistani establishment to stop sending militants across the LOC which triggers the LOC firing. Also we request the Pakistani establishment to move out their camps and safe houses of the militants from the villages because their presence invites the Indian reprisals; and innocent people die as a direct result of that.

 

We request both governments to make the LOC violence free zone by making 5 miles peace zone along the LOC where the people of Jammu and Kashmir can interact and socialise.

 

Also we request the Pakistani establishment to abandon their policy of nourishing extremist groups like Taliban, LeT, JeM, LeJ, TLP and many others, who are exporting violence and terrorism, and intimidating and harassing the local people.

Game of Pakistani establishment in Gilgit Baltistan. POK must not be used as a launching pad.

Game of Pakistani establishment in Gilgit Baltistan. POK must not be used as a launching pad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcTSsGGS4Vs&feature=youtu.be

Islamabad is under siege: Army controls Red Zone, but Pakistani media is not showing any news on this. It shows how independent is media in Pakistan.

Islamabad is under siege: Army controls Red Zone, but Pakistani media is not showing any news on this. It shows how independent is media in Pakistan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ay4qMxY6F2o

Foot soldiers and collaborators should not view this programme

Foot soldiers and collaborators should not view this programme:

Why LOC firing takes place - LOC should become violence free zone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmIAPZHIVCc&feature=youtu.be

LOC firing and launching of the militants must stop. Dr Shabir Choudhry

LOC firing and launching of the militants must stop.

Dr Shabir Choudhry   15 November 2020

 

To us, people of Jammu and Kashmir, it is not important who fired the first bullet across the LOC. Our concern and complaint is why do you have to create havoc along the LOC, when peace prevails on the international border, and both of you happily exchange flowers and sweets.

 

In exchange of fire, no matter who fires the first shot, we people of Jammu and Kashmir get killed, injured, our property destroyed, our livestock killed and crops destroyed. If you want to test your new weapons or practise new war strategies you have a long  international border, why not try that for a change.

 

When we are being killed and continue to bleed, the world community is silent; and the so called Muslim Ummah is also a silent spectator. I can understand they have their own problems and interests, and they will only speak when it suits them

 

Pakistan, known as so called friend, well-wisher, supporter, Ambassador and an Advocate has more than once stabbed us in the back; and ensures that we continue to bleed.

 

India, known as a democracy which claims to adhere to human values, and claims that people of the divided State of Jammu and Kashmir are Indian citizens; and that they came to Jammu and Kashmir to save life, liberty and property of the people do not hesitate to kill and injure people of Jammu and Kashmir.

 

No one with common sense can believe that only the Indian bullets fired across the LOC kill people and destroy property. No matter who starts the first bullet, and whether the gun is fired by a Muslim or non-Muslim, we people of Jammu and Kashmir suffer on both sides of the divide.

 

Because of the brainwashing and inbuilt bias, news related to Jammu and Kashmir from the Pakistani sources is generally accepted as a gospel truth; and news from the Indian sources is regarded as Hindu sources and out rightly rejected.

 

India Today in its report said:

 

‘Indian Army initiated retaliatory fire after Pakistan engaged in unprovoked ceasefire violation on Friday, firing mortars and other weapons in multiple sectors from Uri to Gurez along the LoC in J&K. Retaliatory firing by the Indian Army, in response to ceasefire violations from across the Line of Control (LoC) killed 11 Pakistan Army soldiers on Friday and injured another 16. Sources in the Indian Army told India Today that two-three Pakistan Army Special Service Group (SSG) commandos were among those killed’. 1

 

The report further said:

 

‘This was the second infiltration attempt from the Pakistani side within a week. The Indian Army had foiled an earlier infiltration bid in Machhal Sector on November 7/8 in which three terrorists were killed’. 2

 

The report asserted that this year there were 4,052 ‘ceasefire violations have taken place at the India-Pakistan border compared to 2019's tally of 3,233. As many as 20 civilians on the Indian side have lost their lives due to Pakistani shelling and another 47 sustained injuries’.

 

The Pakistani media and government, of course, rejects this, and they claim it is India which starts unprovoked firing. In this Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Director General ISPR had a press conference in Islamabad, where they gave lengthy details of Indian involvement in various violence and terrorist activities.

 

It is interesting to note that India Today did not call it LOC. They no longer call it LOC; and the report said: ceasefire violations have taken place at the India-Pakistan border. Does it mean, the India Today accepts that the Indian side of Jammu and Kashmir belongs to India, and the other part belongs to Pakistan.

 

What people of Azad Kashmir say?

 

However, many informed citizens of Jammu and Kashmir believe that the LOC firing starts when Pakistan wants to send trained militants across the LOC. When these trained militants are ready to be launched from certain sectors, the Pakistani side will start firing. Of course India will retaliate, and during this firing militants penetrate into the other side.

 

One Political activist and analyst from Rawalakot, Azad Kashmir said:

 

‘Why is it that when the grip of the establishment becomes weak or it is challenged incidents of terrorism inside Pakistan take place? Is it coincidence that the LOC firing takes place more often than normal at that time? Why is that when the government is in hot water, they instigate events to divert attention of the people’? 3

 

He further said, ‘the ruling junta cannot fool people with common sense in 2020. Gone are the days when people were fooled by them on every occasion. Now social media has empowered people and they are better informed than ever before’. 4

 

Some informed people confirm that these militants are housed in safe houses near the LOC, and generally in villages where the ordinary people reside. The Indian side, if they have the intelligence that militants are residing in so and so places, they target those places which result in killing of civilians and destruction of property.

 

Whatever the reason for firing across the LOC, innocent people suffer and their properties are destroyed. Mushtaq Mughal, a friend from the Neelam Valley said:

 

‘This morning Indian army used long range artillery guns Bofors & has destroyed my house along with four other houses of my brothers. Indian army fired across Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistani administered Kashmir and targeted civilian properties in my village Tehjian-Sharda Neelum Valley Kashmir. The family members took refuge in nearby built bunkers and luckily all remained safe. This is a huge property loss for our family, five households have become homeless. Please pray for us in this difficult time. I'm literally disappointed in 21st century the world community has allowed India to commit this level of state terrorism in Kashmir’. 5

 

I have seen clips where one can see people running to save their lives and houses are burning. One can see children, men, women, old and young in very desperate conditions; and there is no system, civil or military in place to help these suffering people.

 

If India claims that these are Indian people. If that is the case, then why kill them like this? Why destroy their property? If Pakistan claims that Jammu and Kashmir belongs to Pakistan and that they care for the people, why do all these people are suffering?

 

Also it is claimed that in some villages, military posts are established and they fire at the Indian posts, in return they target the posts in the villages, which result in civilian casualties and destruction of properties.

 

‘It is a good strategy of the Pakistani military’, said one Azad Kashmiri political analyst. ‘It helps the Pakistani military to hide themselves, and use the civilians as human shields. When the Indian troops retaliate and bombs destroy houses in the villages resulting in killings and burning of the houses, people curse the Indian army. This is good for the propaganda and to promote an anti-India narrative’.

 

A similar view was expressed by Jawad Ahmed Paras, a man from the Neelam Valley, in his statement on the face book:

 

‘When both occupying forces target civilian villagers, some people shout: Long live Pakistan army. There is a long border between India and Pakistan, why there is no firing on the international border.  Why are always innocent people living near the LOC their target? If the slogan of ‘Long live Pakistan army’ or Pakistan army zindabad is raised, then on whose hands is blood of 6 people who lost their lives in the Indian occupied Kashmir’. 6

 

Jawad Ahmed Paras, asked people of so-called Azad Kashmir, ‘Do you understand what independence is? Is your concept of independence confined to shouting ‘long live Pakistan army’ when Indian army starts firing? People of Neelam Valley, it is imperative that we expel occupying forces out of populated hamlets’. 7

 

He further said, ‘If guns are fired from the populated areas, the retaliatory bombing will also come to the same place. The troops are relatively safe in their bunkers built with our taxes, whereas, the total wealth of the poor people is the house where they live with their families. When that house is burnt as a result of the retaliatory bombing, they have lost everything’. 8

 

Mr Paras urged his people by saying, ‘It is imperative that we face the bitter facts, and instead of waiting for the next flare up in which more people lose lives, and houses are burnt, we need to ensure that military camps must be moved out of the populated areas. The check posts on the main road are manned by the local police. Army men must stay away from the populated areas.  We must not become victims of India and Pakistan animosity and hatred’.

 

Jawad Ahmed Paras very courageously said, ‘Those Generals who need territory of Kashmir for their war with India should bring their families here. We will provide them houses, and then they can satisfy their appetite for defeating India. We have already sacrificed our two generations, and we cannot tolerate this anymore when their children are enjoying their lives in Defence Housing Societies and in Bharia Town’. 9

 

Similarly another political leader Mir Afzal Suleria, President Kashmir National Party, who lives in Muzaffarabad said:

 

‘On both sides of the LOC people of Jammu and Kashmir are suffering due to firing of Indian and Pakistani troops. If Pakistan and India are enemies of each other then why do they exchange gifts, flowers and sweets on their international border, and use their lethal weapons on the LOC, which adds to our suffering. We people are killed and injured. Our property is destroyed, livestock killed and crops are destroyed. This injustice and oppression for how long and why’? 10

 

He said, ‘Those who shout slogans that they will fight side by side with the Pakistani army, after performing their duty, sit at home and enjoy their lives and we people suffer’.

 

Mr Suleria, in his usual style asked his people to think, ‘why heavy weapons are stationed in the populated areas? Is this not attracting the Indian reprisals? In this way they are encouraging India to fire at these populated areas’. 11

 

He courageously asked, ‘why are our civilians used as human shields? We demand that the army should move out their weapons from the populated areas. If the Pakistani army is stationed in so-called Azad Kashmir for our protection, then why are they hiding in the populated areas’?

 

Ifzal Suleria asserted that the Pakistani army has ‘failed to protect our lives. Lives cannot be protected by stationing heavy weapons in the populated areas and by shouting emotional slogans and anti-India rhetoric’. 12

 

Media of both countries propagate narrative that suits the interests of their governments. Both countries accuse each other for starting the firing. Similarly, reports of casualties are different. Before the recent flare up, some reports were seen in the Indian media suggesting that Pakistan is sending more highly trained militants to beef up their strength in Kashmir. It was claimed that these militants were highly trained, and included personnel of Pakistan’s top commando group, known as SSG – Special Services Group.

 

One citizen of Jammu and Kashmir, Waqar Bhatti, said: we are not enemies of India or Pakistan. Animosity and hatred is between India and Pakistan, and we are suffering as a result. Both of you are fighting over Jammu and Kashmir. Best way forward is, you two countries fight and leave us alone. Whichever country wins we will become part of that country. Until such time let us live in peace.

 

References:

 

1.    https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/6-7-pak-army-soldiers-killed-terror-launchpads-army-bunkers-destroyed-1740785-2020-11-13?utm_source=izooto&utm_medium=push_notifications&utm_campaign=LoC%20ceasefire&utm_content=&utm_term=

2.    Ibid

3.    This political activist requested me not to mention his name as his family is still in Azad Kashmir and he has to travel the see them, and don’t want to land in hot water.

4.    Ibid

5.    Mushtaq Mughal - https://www.facebook.com/mushtaq.mughal2000

6.    Javed Ahmed Paras - https://www.facebook.com/jawadahmedparas

7.    Ibid

8.    Ibid

9.    Ibid

10. Afzal Sueria – https://www.facebook.com/mirafzaal.sulehria

11. Ibid

12. Ibid

 

Writer is a renowned writer and author of many books. He is also President Foreign Affairs Committee of UKPNP; and Chairman South Asia Watch, London.

Email: Drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com       Twitter:  @Drshabir

 

Pakistani designs in Gilgit Baltistan - injustice and plundering will continue, Dr Shabir Choudhry

Pakistani designs in Gilgit Baltistan - injustice and plundering will continue

Dr Shabir Choudhry      11 November 2020

 

Imran Khan, who is called a ‘Selected’ Prime Minister of Pakistan, during his visit to Gilgit Baltistan on 1 November 2020, declared that he will make Gilgit Baltistan a ‘fifth province’ of Pakistan is illegal and unconstitutional. This unwise decision, in view of many experts strongly believe that, is clearly against the UN Security Council Resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir dispute.

 

This decision is also against Pakistan’s policy on Jammu and Kashmir. In addition to this, the declaration is also against Article 1 and article 257 of the constitution of Pakistan.

 

Sadly, in making U Turn on the declared policy of Jammu and Kashmir dispute, and on violating two articles of the Constitution of Pakistan, many people of Pakistan and Gilgit Baltistan are expressing happiness and treating it as a big success.

 

This decision has proven that Pakistan was never a well-wisher, an advocate or an Ambassador of the people of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistani designs became apparent when they violated the Standstill Agreement and launched a military operation to occupy Kashmir on 22 October 1947.

 

The Pakistani policy on Jammu and Kashmir has always been that of an imperial power. However, they were shrewd enough to use the name of religion to fool people of Pakistan and people of Jammu and Kashmir.

 

Those people who have been very subservient and loyal to Pakistan, complain that “their loyalty has not been reciprocated because Pakistan’s establishment does not trust them”, said Akbar Hussain Akbar, Chief Spokesman of Imran Khan’s PTI in Gilgit Baltistan.

 

Once again, Pakistan is fooling people in the name of development. Balochistan is a province of Pakistan, what development have they made there? They have looted and plundered resources of Balochistan to enrich themselves, and people of Balochistan are suffering immensely.

 

If they wanted to empower people of Gilgit Baltistan and carry out development programmes, they could have done that in 73 years of their occupation. To develop a region, one doesn’t need constitutional changes. What is required for development and to empower people is a clean heart and will, which is absent.

 

If Imran Khan had any sympathy with people of Gilgit Baltistan, then he could have declared to abolish Schedule Four, which restricts fundamental rights of the people; and other anti-people laws which allow secret agencies to curb fundamental rights of the people.

 

Imran Khan could have declared to release all political prisoners, like Baba Jan and dozens of other people imprisoned for demanding fundamental rights.

 

He could have declared that people of Gilgit Baltistan will have a big say in the CPEC projects, and that they will be empowered and appropriately trained and educated to play an important role in matters related to the CPEC.

 

Additionally, he could have declared that Gilgit Baltistan will have royalty of dams and the CPEC projects that the local people can benefit.

 

By doing what they have done in Gilgit Baltistan, and in Jammu and Kashmir, they have totally exposed themselves. People of Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistani occupied Jammu and Kashmir should take note of this and formulate appropriate policies to fight back Pakistani imperialism.

 

What suffering people of Jammu and Kashmir have endured since 1947, and especially after 1988, that is as a direct of wrong policies of Pakistan, and we need to learn from that.

 

People of Pakistani occupied Jammu and Kashmir need to understand Pakistani collaboration in messing up the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, and subsequently ‘resolving’ future of other regions. After they have finished with Gilgit Baltistan, their next target will be so-called Azad Kashmir.

 

In view of the looming threat, the Prime Minister of so called Azad Kashmir needs to formulate appropriate policies, and may consider visiting Britain where more than one million citizens of Azad Kashmir reside.

 

Those who are infatuated with love of Pakistan, and are manipulated by the establishment in name of Islam, need to understand that the Pakistani establishment’s loyalty with their own country is highly questionable. Moreover, their love and care for their own people could be seen from the bitter facts, as to how they have treated people of East Pakistan, various agencies of FATA, Swat, Kohistan, Sindh and Balochistan.

 

All these areas are part of Pakistan. What development have they made in these areas that they will develop areas of Gilgit Baltistan, which are not part of Pakistan and are totally different people.

 

Pakistani agencies have abducted tens of thousands of Pakistani people. Their parents, wives, children, brothers and sisters do not know if their loved ones are alive or dead.

 

Anyone who disagrees with their narrative is castigated as a traitor, anti-State and an Indian agent. They don’t provide any evidence to prove their allegations. If these people are traitors, then why not charge them and present them in the Pakistani courts. There are laws in Pakistan which deal with the issue of treason, but they avoid taking the accused to courts because of lack of evidence.

 

Abduction of the Pakistani citizen is a ‘normal’ and every day event. For some people it is no longer news. Many mainstream print and electronic media are afraid to highlight incidents of abduction mainly because they don’t want to be abducted themselves. Many journalists are abducted, harassed, intimidated, threatened or even killed for speaking truth or for reporting facts which the agencies don’t want people to know.

 

People of Gilgit Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir are more vulnerable and very easy targets of the secret agencies. If Gilgit Baltistan is annexed, as the Pakistani designs suggest, then they will face more problems.

 

Balochistan is a province of Pakistan, although many people are unhappy with what the establishment is doing there, and tens of thousands of local people are missing, as it is reported in the National Assembly by leaders of Balochistan. Another journalist from Balochistan was abducted for speaking truth and exposing wrong doings of the establishment, and this is what two politicians of Pakistan had to say:

 

Afrasiab Khattak  @a_siab

a prominent Pakistani politician from KPK in a tweet on 04 November 2020 said:

 

‘The abduction of journalist Bayyazeed Roshan today is the latest incident of enforced disappearances in Balochistan, a province that is regarded as a black hole because of its large number of disappeared persons by the state agencies’.

 

Mohsin Dawar @mjdawar, a  member of National Assembly in his tweet of 04 November 2020, on the same incident said:

 

'Strongly condemn the abduction of Bayazid Kharoti from Quetta. One of our long standing demands has been to criminalise enforced disappearances and to hold those responsible to account. We demand for Bayazid to be recovered soon. We hope for him to return safely’.

 

More than a month after Pakistan first unveiled plans to annex the Gilgit-Baltistan region –its only land link to China and located in disputed Kashmir– and grant its residents full citizenship rights, an ominous silence hangs over the isolated mountainous region.

Instead of celebrations, almost all the members of the general population interviewed by This Week in Asia during a three-week tour of Gilgit, Nagar, Hunza and Astore districts last month were sceptical that Islamabad would deliver on its promises.

 

A few smiled indulgently when asked about it, responding with a polite “Inshallah” (God willing). Most were non-committal and responded with the secular equivalent, “we’ll see”.

 

Others just scoffed at the idea that the constitutional status of Gilgit-Baltistan could be changed even to that of a “provisional” province, because of the implications for Pakistan’s long-running dispute with India over Kashmir. Both countries claim all of Kashmir and have fought two wars over it.

 

On Sunday, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said a decision had been made to move ahead with the plan, though he gave no time frame for implementation.

 

Some local politicians like Nawaz Khan Naji, founder of the Balawaristan National Front and some local experts of geo political affairs feel that Gilgit Baltistan may become a battleground for ‘a two-front conflict arising from the military stand-off between China and India in Ladakh’.

 

Nawaz Naji, a friend of mine, asserts that China plans to wage a brutal winter war against India in Ladakh… When it starts, all manner of proxy warfare will break out in Gilgit-Baltistan. Gilgit-Baltistan is in the crosshairs of all the major powers because of CPEC”.

 

Nawaz Naji said, “This is the second time Gilgit-Baltistan has been in the eye of a geopolitical storm. The last time was when the Russian Empire and the British Raj clashed here in the 19th century. The borders of Gilgit-Baltistan shifted during the original Great Game, and it’s inevitable they’ll change again as a result of the new Great Game”.

 

It must be noted that the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Modi has consistently asserted his claim over Gilgit Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir. He did not mince his words, and articulated his claim on the strength of the Indian Constitution and Ruler of Jammu and Kashmir, Hari Singh’s accession to India.

 

Mr Modi and other BJP leaders have repeatedly expressed their determination to get back their ‘territory that is illegally occupied by Pakistan’, meaning Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir. In this regard they have instructed their army to make appropriate strategies.

 

I hope the Indian army, and for that matter others, who may enter in this war know that the war in this inhospitable region, which is the ‘roof’ of the world, has an impassable and high altitude valley which can create an extremely difficult situation for the ‘invaders’.

Many local people take pride in becoming officers of the Pakistan army. Nearly every household of Gilgit Baltistan has a former soldier or active service who is serving in the armed services.

 

They also fought during the Kargil fiasco and lost many brave young men. In 2009, they also took an active part in the liberation of Swat from the extremists; and many are doing their duties on LOC and in various parts of Pakistan, including FATA and Balochistan.

 

Sons of Gilgit Baltistan who lost their lives while fighting for Pakistan are buried in various graveyards of Gilgit Baltistan; and the Pakistani ‘national flag flies over the graves of Gilgit-Baltistan’s fallen soldiers’

 

The newly created, elected regional assembly was given very limited legislative scope. It is not allowed to raise revenues independently of Islamabad and remains completely dependent on federal grants.

 

The Pakistani establishment and those who are deputed to serve in this area have mastered the art of fooling the local people and looting their resources in so-called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan. I just give one example to illustrate my point.

Gilgit-Baltistan (Empowerment and Self-Governance) Order, 2009 was imposed by Islamabad to ‘provide greater political empowerment and better governance to the people of Gilgit-Baltistan’.

 

At that time, I pointed out that imperialists do not empower their colonies, they present laws and ordinances to strengthen their hold, and where necessary appoint their puppets on key posts to give the impression that the local people are in charge.

 

For example, there is a Gilgit Baltistan Assembly, but like the so called Azad Kashmir Assembly, they are also controlled by Islamabad. For the so-called Azad Kashmir there is Kashmir Council which controls everything; similarly there is Gilgit Baltistan Council, which is Chaired by Pakistan’s Prime Minister. The Council’s Members are chosen from the Puppet Assembly, and the Pakistani Member of the Council outnumber Members of the Gilgit Baltistan.

 

Gilgit Baltistan has a tax-free status, however, Pakistan’s government collects more than US $200 million a year in customs duties on overland trade with China, rather than allowing the Gilgit Baltistan government to accrue the revenue.

The Gilgit Baltistan Assembly and the Government are controlled by senior officers from Islamabad. These Pakistani senior officers live and act like the British Viceroys; and the civil service of the Gilgit Baltistan is totally controlled by them.

 

Employment among the graduates of Gilgit Baltistan is rampant, and instead of employing the local graduates to provide them employment, to empower them, and to make them part of the system, they send Pakistani bureaucrats to act as superior beings.

These Pakistani officers sent on ‘deputations’ to Gilgit Baltistan receive ‘generous allowances’ because of out of the area posting. The salary of senior bureaucrats is above US $24,000 a year, which makes them among the top 10 percent of earners in Pakistan. It must be noted that according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectation, ‘GDP per capita in Pakistan is expected to reach 1130.00 USD by the end of 2020’.

These senior officials are posted for the period of three years. They adopt an extravagant lifestyle; and on their return to Pakistan they take away several hundred thousand US dollars – all paid for from the federal government’s small annual budgetary grant to Gilgit-Baltistan’.

 

With the Assembly, government, civil service and justice still firmly in hands of Pakistan, the local people are apprehensive of Pakistani establishment’s designs about this region. They feel the establishment which has ruled this region with an iron fist since November 1947, will not surrender their unconstrained power even if Gilgit Baltistan is granted a status of a province.

 

Many critics think whatever the ‘legal status’ of Gilgit Baltistan, changes on the ground will be largely cosmetic, and there will be more problems for the local people. The presence of many Pakistani secret agencies, including agencies of China and other countries could not be pleasant for the local people, as this will result in curbing of the civil liberties, intimidation and harassment. It could also result in more corruption and enhance the system of patronage.

 

In Azad Kashmir, to a large extent, State Subject Laws are not violated – ownership of the land is largely reserved for the local people. However, in Gilgit Baltistan, it is different. The local people are extremely concerned on the issue of the ‘massive influx of hot money from the Pakistani hinterland could come at the cost of residents’.

 

One such example is exploitation of the Naltar Valley, which houses a ski training facility for the Pakistan Air Force. Because this Valley is taken over by the men in uniform, this area had unprecedented investment for new infrastructure and other facilities that the real rulers of Pakistan can enjoy their time here without any problems.

 

The local people are apprehensive about the designs of the Pakistani elite, and many have decided not to sell their land to ‘outsiders’. Alarm bells rang louder when they learnt that the ‘Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), a commercial arm of the military which dominates the region’s construction industry, recently attempted to seize more than 3,000 hectares of ancestral pastoral land on the pretext that it was needed for CPEC projects’.

 

Land is grabbed under various pretexts, including in the name of the CPEC. Hydropower plant in Hunza was also added to the list of the CPEC projects in Gilgit Baltistan. However, critics feel that this hydropower plant is built primarily to enhance the facilities of the Naltar Valley, which is taken over by the Pakistani elite.

 

After strong protests the huge land of 3,000 hectares was saved from the takeover, and on this Amjad Hussain, a leader of Pakistan People’s Party played a leading role. On this he said:

“Otherwise, all that Gilgit-Baltistan will get out of CPEC is traffic pollution,” he said. “Irrespective of which institution was involved, it was a land grab, plain and simple”. He further said:

 

“Nobody here has a problem if billions of dollars of CPEC projects are built in Pakistan, as long as it’s not at the cost of excluding Gilgit Baltistan, the gateway for the entire enterprise, or the property rights of the people,” Amjad Hussain said.

 

Business community of Gilgit Baltistan increasingly feels that the control of local economy and markets is fast going in hands of the Pakistanis, who have settled here, or travel from Kohistan. During our fact finding trip to the region in 2010, we were told by the local political activists that approximately 60% of the economy was in the hands of the non-local people. One can imagine what will be the situation in November 2020.

 

Representatives of the Gilgit Baltistan Contractors Association in a press conference in September 2020 were furious about ‘the military’s business monopoly of public works projects in the region’.

 

They said Frontier Works Organisation and its sister military business concerns were establishing a monopoly in the region by ensuring that even relatively small scale government projects are not given to the local contractors.

 

Many local people of Gilgit Baltistan feel that their region could become a battleground for a new round the great game. The region could be ‘sucked into a two-front war’. These people complain that they have been loyal to, but their ‘loyalty has not been reciprocated’.

 

On this issue, Akbar Hussain Akbar, Chief Spokesman of Imran Khan’s PTI in Gilgit-Baltistan said:

 

“The people of Gilgit-Baltistan feel that their loyalty has not been reciprocated because Pakistan’s establishment does not trust them, if people’s grievances are not addressed, the public blowback could be disastrous for Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan”.

 

People of Gilgit Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir, don’t be under any illusions, if those who are Pakistanis are not getting their fundamental rights in Pakistan, you people will never be treated equally, and you and your future generations will regret on remaining silent on this crucial juncture in history of these regions.

 

Writer is a renowned writer and author of many books. He is also President Foreign Affairs Committee of UKPNP; and Chairman South Asia Watch, London.

Email: Drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com       Twitter:  @Drshabir