Counter narrative on CPEC, Dr
Shabir Choudhry
London 28 May 2018
The Pakistani Chief
Justice seems to be more interested in making news headlines by interfering in
matters which are not directly related to his job of providing justice to all
the Pakistanis. In Supreme Court of Pakistan on 30 April, there were 38,913
cases pending which require attention of Supreme Court Judges.1 Chief Justice is busy visiting hospitals and testing
quality of water. I hope once he has finished his welfare work, and ‘jihad’ of
nailing down Nawaz Sharif, he will provide justice to these people.
It must be pointed out
that in 2001, there were 13,070 cases. May be Judges after that expressed more
interest in grabbing headlines and doing work for which they were not paid. The
learned justice express more interest in lambasting the civilian governments on
social, political and economic issues that will earn him headlines.
By commenting on the
CPEC, a mega project with international ramifications, the honourable Chief
Justice of Pakistan has increased area of his interest. While addressing the
8th Judicial Conference that was the Law and Justice Commission of Pakistan,
the Chief Justice said:
‘There must be a consensus among all
the stakeholders in going forward and evaluating the legal, social, cultural
and economic aspects of the multi-billion-dollar Chinese investment. There is a
need for a serious dialogue to assess the impact of the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor.’2
It is debateable if
the CPEC will help the Pakistani economy; and moreover, if it will empower the
local people. However, the CPEC has created divisions within various regions of
Pakistan, where people in position of power accuse each other for disregarding
interests of certain regions.
All civilised nations
encourage debate on various issues which affect public; as long as people
discuss pros and cons of the matter being discussed, and not call each other
traitor and anti - state just because of contradictory views.
Unfortunately, in
Pakistan and in the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir, dissent is not
accepted as a right; and people forget rules of the debate and resort to
abusive language. They make very serious allegations like treason, and call
each other Kaffir and anti-state etc.
The issues arising out
of this mega project have resulted in increased anxiety, bitterness and concern
in various parts of Pakistan, and areas of Jammu and Kashmir controlled by
Pakistan. No doubt, the CPEC is a mega project which is not only discussed and
opposed within Pakistan, but it is also debated in many capitals of the world.
The CPEC is promoted
as a ‘game changer’. However, it remains to be seen, in whose favour the game
will change. Will the CPEC change lives of the people of:
·
Pakistan,
Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir for the better?
·
Will
the CPEC empower the down trodden people?
· Will the CPEC protect and inspire women and
minorities?
· Will the CPEC make them more self-reliant,
more versatile and capable to compete challenges of 21st Century?
· Or are they going to suffer as a result of
the CPEC, which will have great impact on economy, finance, environment, social
patterns and even on defence and sovereignty of Pakistan. How burden of massive
loans on Pakistan will affect the ordinary people?
For reasons, best known
to those who are at the helm of affairs of the CPEC, no attention is being paid
to environment and ecology; and the Chief Justice has rightly pointed out this
oversight or negligence. He has also expressed his serious concern on disputes
and misgivings of different regions, and has suggested a mechanism to redress
dispute of the parties.
No project can be
completed or become fruitful by wishful thinking, or by having big dreams.
Steel Mill was completed with help of Soviet Russia, what have Pakistanis made
of it. What have they made of Pakistan International Airline, which was amongst
the best airlines at one time.
Moonis
Ahmar, Professor of International Relations says: ‘concerns
are being raised by different quarters in Pakistan about the viability of CPEC
in unleashing the process of infrastructural, industrial and economic
modernisation of the country. Contentious issues which will arise in the near
future dealing with ecological and environmental implications of projects
carried out under CPEC must be analytical and critically addressed. 3
China has agreed to
provide funds and other logistic support to various projects of the CPEC.
However, has Pakistan professional expertise and required work ethics to
complete their part of the projects on time, especially when there are deep
divisions among the provinces and other stakeholders.
In this regard,
despite lofty claims about the progress and benefits of the CPEC, Federal
Minister for Planning and Reforms, did not hesitate to point out about
non-cooperation of provinces in ‘presenting plans for special economic zones’.4 Can one envisage the CPEC without Special Economic Zones?
China has more than
once emphasised to the concerned authorities that if the CPEC related projects
are not completed on time, China may stop the investment. It is clear that if
some stakeholders in Pakistan are not serious in completing deadlines, then it
is not logical for China to continue investing more money. If that happens,
surely it will be loss of Pakistan; and Chinese dream of controlling the world
economy by One Belt One Road will also suffer.
CPEC and Chinese dream
Majority of people of
Pakistan under influence of systematic propaganda believe that the CPEC will
resolve all their problems, and Pakistan will emerge as an economic tiger or
Asian Economic Tiger. We have heard these slogans many times in the past, which
are floated basically to fool their own people.
Yes, Pakistan is getting
a massive investment, which will help Pakistan to build roads, bridges, dams,
railway lines etc. It will provide employment to tens of thousands of people in
short term; and will solve energy problems of Pakistan as well.
However, people of
Pakistan and policy makers need to understand that China is not doing this
because they love Pakistanis; and want to alleviate their economic problems and
misery. The Chinese want to help themselves. They want to fulfil their dream to
become a great economic and military power again, as they were in the past.
No doubt, China was
once a great power in the world. The Chinese leaders talk of ‘rejuvenation’ or
‘revival’- to gain what they lost. Their slogan is: “never forget national
humiliation”. To fully appreciate their dream of revival one needs to
understand China’s ‘Century of humiliation’. The new Chinese philosophy is, we
cannot be great again until we are strong at home; and we can only be strong if
we are economically and politically robust.
They have achieved that
objective, and now they have launched the next stage of their plan, which is to
use their economic muscle to advance their strategic and military agenda. This
frightens the world, especially conscious neighbours, as the Chinese dream is
closely linked with the military might of China. Only with formidable military
and economic power China can become a great power again.
Xi Jinping, while
inspecting a military base on 13 December 2012 said:
‘We must preserve the
bond between a rich country and a strong military, and strive to build a
consolidated national defence.’ 5
His dream of a strong
country and a strong military can only be accomplished when they are
economically strong, and have a formidable military and allies abroad that
never again China could be subdued.
In the past decades,
China as a matter of policy played rather passive and non-aggressive role in
international relations. All this was to change with the arrival of Xi Jinping
on the political scene of China. He declared that China will play a ‘proactive’
role in Asia. It was a major shift in Chinese foreign policy; as he wanted to
first build allies in Asia by promoting a ‘neighbourhood diplomacy’.
‘Proactive role’
requires China to take initiatives on matters related to Asian Countries. This
necessitates making more friends; and making countries dependent on the Chinese
support, especially in Asia and Africa. China was less interested in making
military or even economic alliances, rather idea was to have bilateral
agreements, in which, of course China will have upper hand.
As China makes more
friends and more countries are economically and militarily dependent on
Beijing, it will provide China geo political leverage to advance their agenda
abroad to bring back nation’s glory and self-respect.
This proactive policy
is designed to thrust upon mega projects on weak countries to ensure that the
Chinese economy keeps on its targets; and finding new markets for its surplus.
The aid recipient country needs financial help and technical support to build
their infrastructure, and support their economy.
Whether, in the long
run, the completed projects fulfil requirements of the recipient country is not
concern of China. To put it crudely, the country is ‘hooked’, and has to become
more dependent on China; or end up losing part of its sovereignty, as it
happened to Sri Lanka. After failure to pay the loans, China took control of
Sri port of Hambantota for 99-year lease.
After the second World
War, America helped to establish an economic and financial system which helped
Washington to advance its agenda and keep hegemony in the World politics. On
similar lines, China is busy establishing an economic and financial system in
Asia that will help Beijing to advance their economic and strategic agenda.
China, in accordance
with its planning, enhanced its investment in Asia, and many people may not
know that China Development Bank, and Export Import Bank of China are already
providing more funds in Asia than the loans provided by the World Bank and Asia
Development Bank put together. By providing massive funds to build more roads,
railway lines, ports and power lines in poor countries of Asia, China’s
ambition is to bring these countries under their influence.
In order to support
the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has established new financial
institutions, for example, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the
Silk Road Bank (SRB). In this regard, BRICS and establishment of New
Development Bank is also important. BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China
and South Africa, and their New Development Bank is seen as a ‘challenge’ to
the Washington-based International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank was established by 50 founding member countries.
China has the biggest share of 30 percent; and they also have the biggest say
in it. It is interesting that America, the largest economy of the world and
Japan, the third largest economy of the world refused to become part of the AIIB.
Some economic experts believe the
establishment of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is important, but it
should not be taken as the main weapon in the ‘financial arsenal’ of China, as the
country has huge financial institutions to bolster its agenda. There are a
number of Chinese commercial banks; and Bank of China alone has assured to lend
100 billion US dollars on these projects.
Some experts are of the view that China
has so much cash and surplus of materials that, at times, they find it
difficult to find worthwhile projects to invest in. As pointed out earlier,
there is a fierce competition going on among the rich countries and banks to
find worthwhile projects; and countries willing to accept terms and conditions
attached with the development projects.
On issue of the AIIB, Sergei
Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister said, the New Development Bank, "illustrates
a new polycentric system of international relations" demonstrating the
increasing influence of "new centres of power". 6
However, Li Daxiao, Chief Economist of
Yingda Securities, while commenting on the New Development Bank said, aim of
the new bank is not to challenge ‘other multilateral agencies. It's a
complement, instead of a challenge, to existing international
institutions." 7
Chinese strong economy, as it is,
without the completion of Belt and Road Initiative, is almost half of the Asian
GDP. Very few developing countries can resist financial and engineering
proficiency and incentive of China, especially those who struggle to provide
basic necessities for their population. Strategic and economic experts think
once the BRI projects are completed, this will make China irresistible and a
dominant power to dictate terms in the region, and beyond. Xi Jinping in
December 2014 said:
‘Beijing should participate and lead,
make China’s voice heard, and inject more Chinese elements into international
rules.’ 8
CPEC, Pakistan and China
In above pages, it has been discussed
why China is investing hundreds of billions of dollars. One point must be
clear: it is to make China great again; and not because Beijing loves human
beings and want to get them out of economic problems.
China’s human rights record is
atrocious, but because of China’s position in the world, and economic muscle,
not many like to talk about it. Instead, they talk of human rights records of
vulnerable countries to show that they are still champions of human rights.
Despite hundreds of billions of reserves, there are still millions of Chinese
living below the poverty line, and if China is not getting them out of the
poverty trap, why on earth they would do it for Pakistan, if it did not have
some other agenda.
Call it One Belt One Road or Belt and Road
Initiative, the CPEC is one of six economic corridors. Yes, the CPEC is a major
component of the BRI, which is primarily designed to protect China’s national
interests. These mega projects will help to make China stronger and increase
its economic and political influence in neighbouring countries in such a way
that they become natural friends and allies of China.
It is expected that in case of
international crises, because of obligation, and in order to protect what China
has established in their countries, rulers of these ‘dependencies’ will side
with Beijing.
In countries where these economic
corridors are going, their friendship with China is not higher than mountains
and deeper than sea. So, remember, slogans like “Pak-China
friendship is higher than Himalaya, deeper than the ocean, sweeter than honey
and stronger than steel” are only used to fool people that they don’t question
what deals rulers of Islamabad are making with Beijing.
China’s massive investment in
neighbouring countries which are economically and militarily vulnerable, will
be obliged for the Chinese help. The Chinese economic, technical and military
assistance will establish bridges of trust, a common interest and ‘shared
vision’ for the region. Beijing planners believe by establishing a network of
these economic dependencies and friends, China will formulate unofficial
alliances, and if these countries reciprocate that will help to defend
interests of China and the region.
To achieve the above
massive agenda, with so many complexities and challenges, the Chinese need to
use the geographical position of Pakistan to advance their programme of making
China great again.
In other words, the
CPEC, and the Chinese ‘favour’ or ‘generosity’ should be understood in light of
the above scenario. Take example of steel, in 2015, China had around 170
million metric tonnes of excess steel capacity. There were not enough
development projects; and China had to ‘dump’ this surplus steel in the world
market at a much-reduced price, which upset the trade market of steel in the
world. 9
People of Pakistan
should learn from plight of other nations who have suffered as a result of the
Chinese investment. Also, they should look at views of people of other countries
where the Chinese have invested or is still investing.
People in Kyrgyzstan
make joke about Chinese labourers killing their donkeys and arranging ‘feasts’.
The local people of Kyrgyzstan say: ‘Beijing’s plan to build a railway
across their tiny country is more a threat than a potential boon.’ 10
One commentator from
Kyrgyzstan said, the ‘China’s economic help is viewed as a huge magnet
attracting all the small countries around it.’
Referring to the Chinese
economic help, one salesman said: “We need them for economic growth, but if
we’re not careful, we could lose our nation.” 11
Realising
apprehensions of the weak countries, Xi Jinping in 2015 said:
‘China will never
inflict its past suffering on any other nations. The Chinese people are
resolved to pursue friendly relations with all other countries.’ 12
Despite this
assurance, many experts fear that the ‘Chinese Dream’ is to build a new kind of
empire which does not require physical invasion of foreign lands. When Chinese
leaders say, they want to recover what they lost, it is clear that they mean
the past glory. What they lost was their status as a great Asian military and
economic power. Critics say, the Chinese have camouflaged their imperial
designs. They want to establish themselves as a dominant Asian military
economic power.
In view of writers
like Tom Miller, China will not be able to ‘assert itself as a regional
hegemon’, because of the strong presence of America in the region. He
feels, countries like Japan and South Korea do not need the Chinese help, as
they are powerful countries; and they are ‘competitors in the game of
infrastructure diplomacy.’ Tom Miller asserts, ‘Xi Jinping’s vision of an
Asian empire is probably a dream too far.’ 13
Many Pakistani
analysts and economists believe that there is a serious threat to Pakistan’s
sovereignty due to the financial burden, which Pakistan is undertaking because
of the CPEC. Inability to pay will result surrendering certain areas to the
Chinese. Already China is calling shots in certain parts of decision making.
Pakistan is not down
yet, but China is already pressurising Pakistan to allow them to use Chinese
currency in Gwadar. Question is for how long Pakistan will resist this
pressure; and what will be the consequences of allowing Chinese currency in
parts of Pakistan. A Pakistani Professor, Moonis Ahmar asserted:
‘The other side of
CPEC will be unavoidable when in case of Pakistan’s failure to repay loans to
China, Beijing will simply take control of Gwadar port and deprive Pakistan of
its strategic asset.’ 14
The learned Professor
is also concerned by ‘severe environmental and ecological implications of
the CPEC’. Surely heavy traffic going in direction of Gwadar and Kashgar
will have great impact on the environment of Gilgit and Baltistan and Pakistan.
Furthermore, under the CPEC programme, construction of coal and gas based
energy plants will result in environment mayhem. Sadly, both China and Pakistan
are not remotely concerned about this.
Many Pakistanis regard
the Chinese help and the CPEC has a blessing in disguise, as they desperately
need financial help. Imran
Jan,
who is a pro CPEC writer and has special interest as an analyst on power politics, security
studies and foreign policies of global powers, also thinks the CPEC is
essential for the development of Pakistan. However, he also feels that views of
Pakistani are gradually changing against the CPEC and what it has to offer. He
writes:
‘Even
one school of thought compares Chinese investment in CPEC with East Indian
Company’s imperialist agenda. The soft image once China used to hold in
Pakistani minds and hearts has started to erode through misguided and maligned social
media propaganda. The propaganda to malign fruitful Chinese presence in
Pakistan has been grasping more and more attention through social media. 15
The current Pakistani
Prime Minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi who is a business tycoon in his own right, feels the
CPEC is great for Pakistan and the region. In his speech delivered in CPEC 2018
Summit he said:
‘The BRI is the vision of [Chinese]
President Xi Jinping for the push for connectivity of China with the world. It
is the project of a generation and, today, the CPEC is the visible part of the
BRI. We are indeed privileged in the sense that CPEC will open Western China
and Central Asia with connectivity to the sea with the most efficient route to
the sea through Gwadar. 16
He said, the CPEC
provides an opportunity to ‘all the people living in this region; and adds that the
CPEC is a partnership between China and Pakistan. Really? Is it a partnership? Maybe
we can call it a partnership of a senior partner and a junior partner, where
one orders and the other obeys; or partnership of two unequal partners, where
one partner will always work as a dominant and superior.
If Pakistani Prime Minister is happy, the ruling elite of
Pakistan is happy; and the people of Pakistan don’t even care what is happening
in Pakistan and in the region, perhaps I should also keep silent. But is it in
the interest of Pakistan, Jammu and Kashmir and the region? If in my considered
opinion, it has a big hidden agenda; and can land Pakistan, Jammu and Kashmir
and the region in a big trouble, should I remain quiet? Is remaining quiet a
sensible option, or is it a criminal negligence.
Shahid
Khaqan Abbasi thinks it is a new style of ‘working together’;
and it will provide Islamabad a ‘platform for development. It integrates our own efforts
for development with the package that CPEC provides’.
Maybe it is a new
style of governance where within Pakistan 2 or 3 parallel governments and
centres of power operate, and they try to dominate and subdue the others; even
call it each other anti-state and traitor. Maybe, Pakistan does same in the
international relations, where for the sake of political and economic benefits,
and in some cases, for personal survival, countries don’t mind compromising
with certain parts of sovereignty, as Pakistan has done a number of times in
the past.
The learned Prime
Minister talked about expansion of the ‘CPEC vision’, but did not articulate
what is that vision and how it will help Pakistan and South Asia. If everything
with the CPEC projects, and its future vision is satisfactory then, why I
wonder, no one in the government comes out with the details people have been
asking? Why is not transparent? Why so much secrecy is still surrounding with
the CPEC projects?
Frustration with the
CPEC and its projects can be summed up with one comment published with the
speech of the Prime Minister, A Shah says:
‘Please no more CPEC.
Tell me about other investments, development growth prosperity. Just not more
lip service on CPEC.’ 17
For how long one can
hear the same mantra again and again. Is there any other investment coming from
other countries either because of the CPEC or what Pakistan can offer as an
emerging market? What is the status of that investment, is it a loan or foreign
direct investment? How is that going to help people of Pakistan and the struggling
Pakistani economy?
Last year in a speech delivered in London
on topic of the CPEC, I said, in order to pay off instalments of the existing
loans and stabilise the economy, Pakistan will have to either go back to the
IMF with a begging bowl, or obtain more loans from friendly countries like
China and Saudi Arabia. Also, I said that because of the stigma attached with
the IMF loans, and lofty claims that they have broken the IMF begging bowl forever,
they may not approach the IMF; and more than likely will beg for help from
Saudi Arabia and China.
That have proved true. Pakistan has gained some more money
from Saudi Arabia; and in return they had hurriedly send some army to the
Kingdom. A few days ago, State Bank of Pakistan confirmed that they have
received ‘Chinese loans to stave off a foreign currency crisis as
Islamabad finds itself caught in growing global pressure on emerging markets.’
Tariq Bajwa, the Governor of the State Bank confirmed that, ‘Pakistan
received one billion US dollars’ worth of loans at “good, competitive rates”
from Chinese banks last month after official data showed the country’s foreign
currency reserves almost halved in the past two years. 18
I am sure before the end of this year;
Pakistan will contact either China or some other lender to get a new loan to
pay the instalments of the loans. This process of getting a new loan to pay
interest of the existing loans will continue, until such time that Pakistan may
end up losing certain aspects of its sovereignty in exchange of settling the
loans.
It should also be pointed out that last
week Pakistan has signed with China’s Central Bank a bilateral currency swap
agreement worth 3.13 billion US dollars for three years. It is believed that
this deal will help the parties to ‘facilitate bilateral trade and
investment to help economic development in the two countries’; and
enable two ‘institutions to exchange payments in one currency for equivalent
amounts in the other to facilitate bilateral trade settlements and provide
liquidity support to financial markets.’ 19
It is too early to say anything on ramifications
of this deal, and how it will help the struggling Pakistani economy. However,
one thing is clear, slowly but surely, Pakistan is sucked in to the Chines financial
web. May Almighty help us all?
Reference:
2.
The other side of CPEC, Moonis
Ahmar, Professor of International Relations at the
University of Karachi. Daily Times, May 11th 2018.
3.
Ibid
4.
ibid
5.
China’s Asian Dream, Tom
Miller, page 9
7.
ibid
8.
Opcit, Tom Miller, Page 28
9.
Ibid, page 49
10.
Ibid, page 81
11.
Ibid, page 81
12.
Ibid, page 17
13.
Ibid, page 19
14.
Op cit, Monis Ahmar
15.
Published in Daily Times, May 26th 2018.
16. CPEC 2018 Summit: A prototype for prosperity, By
Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, https://www.dawn.com/news/1409495/cpec-2018-summit-a-prototype-for-prosperity
17. ibid
18.
The News, 24 May 2018
19.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/320900-china-extends-20bln-yuan-currency-swap-deal-with-pakistan
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