Can CPEC
promote India Pakistan friendship?
Dr Shabir Choudhry 01 September 2018
Pakistan was established on 15
August 1947, but sadly debate still goes on as to why Pakistan was created.
Majority view in Pakistan is that Pakistan was established to provide a new
home to Muslims of the Indian Sub-Continent. Counter narrative is that it was a
foreign agenda to divide Muslims of the region; and create a new country in
strategically important locality that it can serve interests of the West.
Some others say it was to divide
India and erect walls of hatred that two new countries, India and Pakistan,
keep on bleeding each other. Another narrative is that the British could only
maintain their rule in this vast land with help of aristocracy and army; and
before the British left India, they divided the country on religious lines and
rewarded those who helped them during difficult times.
Whatever the real reason, bitter
fact is that the entire Indian Sub - continent is still suffering, and paying
price of that hatred and death and destruction which happened because of the
partition of India.
Sane voices on both sides of the
divide and elsewhere, urge both countries to move on, and build bridges of
trust and friendship. People who want hatred and distrust to continue always
had upper hand, and they use religious card to embitter the situation. The sane
voices are marginalised and called unpatriotic and traitors.
Some thinkers and political leaders
believe the best way forward is to trade with each other, encourage sports,
facilitate cultural visits and people to people to contacts that conducive
environment is established where both countries can resolve their disputes
peacefully.
Those who are enemies of peace, they
promote extremism, hatred, intolerance and violence. We people of forcibly
divided Jammu and Kashmir are the main victims of this policy of hatred,
intolerance and violence, as we continue to remain divided and suffer.
Can CPEC help?
Some people believe, especially the
Chinese, that the CPEC can help both countries to come closer to each other.
They feel both countries can maintain their respective stands on the
outstanding disputes, and work together for the betterment of the poor people
who are in tens of millions in both countries.
In this regard, China is making
sincere and serious efforts to bring India and Pakistan close to each other.
The Chinese approach is to avoid using gun to resolve disputes, and use trade
and commerce. They too have serious disputes with India, yet India is among the
biggest trading partner of China.
China has more than once proposed
that there should be a trilateral summit between India, Pakistan and China to
resolve outstanding disputes.
This Summit could be arranged under aegis of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
Both India
and Pakistan became full members of the SCO last year. Interestingly, India and
Pakistan fight against each other and accuse each other for terrorism and
sabotage, however, for the first time both countries participated in military
exercises to counter-terrorism under the “Peace
Mission 2018.” For the first time, army personnel of both arch rivals won’t
take part in any military event as enemies.
Objective
of the joint military drill held in Russia was to enhance cooperation among
member states, and work out practical strategies to counter growing threat of
terrorism and extremism.
In
this exercise around 3,000 soldiers from India, Pakistan, China, Russia,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan have Participated. This exercise is
tactical-level operation conducted in an international counter-terrorism
environment.
The
Indian contingent which participated in the military exercise had 200
personnel. It is hoped that the joint exercise will enhance mutual confidence
and operational ability. In the past troops from the Central Asian countries used
to participate. Now that India and Pakistan have taken active part in this
military exercise, it means ‘SCO’s counter-terrorism mission has expanded to
South Asia, a region in a grip of terrorism and extremism’. 1
It was interesting that after the joint military
exercises in Russia, soldiers belonging to enemy countries – India and Pakistan
were dining and dancing together as if they were the best friends. On this a
famous Pakistani TV anchor and journalist Rauf Klasra tweeted on 29 August 2018:
‘What is
this mystery?? All hate & enmity evaporates once Pakistanis and Indians are
out of hate zone and land in some third country—Is this whole region cursed so
once they are out of its boundaries, both start behaving like normal human
being who chat, laugh, sing & dance together’?
Anyway, India is not interested in any trilateral summit
to resolve disputes between India and Pakistan. New Delhi believes the disputes
they have with Pakistan are of bilateral nature; and there is ‘no scope
for the involvement of any third party.’
India
is not against economic development in any country. However, they have strong
reservations on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is a tributary of
the BRI. China is still trying to woo India to become part of the CPEC, and tries
to assure India that it will not influence Chinese ‘neutrality’. China's Assistant Foreign
Minister Zhang Jun, while reiterating his government’s policy on the CPEC said:
"China
has repeatedly stressed that CPEC is an economic initiative. Implementing CPEC
does not change China's position on Kashmir." 2
Under
its Belt and Road Initiative or OBOR (One Belt One Road), China is connecting dozens of
countries of Asia, Africa and Europe by building a network of roads, highways,
ports and sea lanes. Apart from India, other countries also feel that under
cover of economic initiative China has geostrategic agenda,
In
view of New Delhi, China is not neutral when it comes to Pakistan. Beijing has
used its Veto in support of Pakistan on numerous times. China is a major
trading partner of India, but China has more in common with Pakistan when it
comes to politics and strategic interests.
There
was a small meeting of some thinking people held in London in September 2017.
In this informal ‘tripartite’ meeting, two economists from India, employed in
banks in London were also present. One economist from Pakistan and one from
Jammu also participated in the deliberations.
One
Indian economist was of the opinion:
That India is not against economic development in
Pakistan. India wants Pakistan to have economic and political stability which
can lead to economic prosperity. Once there is economic stability and
prosperity, the Pakistani civil society will oppose those who spread hatred and
violence. A stable Pakistan can promote peace and stability in the region; and
can control forces of extremism and violence.
The
other economist said: India is not against the CPEC or economic development of
Pakistan. However, we have strong reservations on the following accounts.
1.
The CPEC is going
through a territory of Gilgit Baltistan which is disputed and legally belongs
to India. It is a direct challenge to our sovereignty.
2.
Our apprehension is
that the CPEC will help China to get a foothold in a territory that belongs to
us. The Chinese military presence in Gilgit Baltistan will endanger our defence
and strategic interests.
3. The CPEC
will enable Pakistan and China to exploit resources which belong to us and our
people in Gilgit Baltistan.
4. Furthermore,
because of the CPEC, numeric strength and activities of army and secret
agencies of both countries have increased in Gilgit Baltistan; and that will
help both countries to strengthen their hold on these areas.
5. Because of
presence of armies and secret agencies of China and Pakistan, people of Gilgit
Baltistan will suffer more oppression and intimidation.
6. Already,
Pakistan ‘gifted’ to China a large portion of territory from Gilgit (Shaksgam
Valley around 2,000 Kilometres) to China in 1963.
7. Furthermore,
we believe the CPEC is not an economic corridor, it has strong hidden agenda,
which has formidable military and strategic aspect. Control of Gwadar by China
will seriously endanger Indian interests.
The
Pakistani economist also had some serious misgivings on the CPEC, or at least,
on certain aspects of the CPEC. However, he was of the view that because of
Pakistan’s present predicament, the country has to swallow this bitter pill
with great care and caution. In other words, in his opinion, the CPEC is must
for the future of Pakistan.
He
was of the view that both India and Pakistan should improve their relations and
trade with each other; and encourage more people to people contacts.
However,
he was critical of views expressed by his Indian counterpart, and asserted that
Jammu and Kashmir belonged to Pakistan. He also said Gilgit Baltistan was part
of Pakistan; and that Pakistan has sacrificed too many lives for Kashmir; and
cannot now abandon their historic stance.
In
any case, he said, areas of Gilgit Baltistan, Azad Kashmir and Kashmir were
absolutely necessary for economy and security of Pakistan. When he was
countered with some historic facts, he said this is all Indian propaganda.
However,
when he was cornered with some more facts, he said Gilgit Baltistan and Azad
Kashmir belong to Pakistan, and if anyone has courage, then come and take them
from us.
Although
he was highly educated and a student of economics, however, it looked as if he
was also influenced by the text books of Pakistan studies. Like other
Pakistanis, he also believed that with nuclear capability, Pakistan was
‘unconquerable’. As this was not topic of the discussion, it was felt necessary
to abandon this, and resume debate on the CPEC and economic implications.
Summary of the discussion is only given to present views expressed by Pakistani
and Indian experts.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
Anyway,
China needs to keep on improving economic contacts with India, especially after
America has imposed economic sanctions on China. This trade war will surely
hurt China more than America. China’s growth rate has already declined to 6.7
percent. Whereas, Indian economic growth rate has increased to 7.7 percent,
making India the fastest economy in the world.
China is
desperately searching for new markets, and CPEC and BRI can help to do that.
However, these projects will take many years of hard work before they are ready.
In the meantime, the Indian market can be a good substitute, if both countries
wish to improve their trade volume.
Under the BRI, China plans to establish many other
economic projects, like power plants and manufacturing centres in the countries
connected by BRI system. China has huge funds to lend out to these countries to
attract them.
The CPEC is essential component of the BRI. However,
the Pakistani economy is in a mess; and may take a bailout package from the
IMF, which could prove to be counterproductive to the CPEC projects because of
the restrictions and transparency issues. If somehow India is
persuaded to join the project that will give a big boost to the CPEC and BRI.
If Pakistan is serious about benefitting from the CPEC,
then the country has to put its house in order. It has to control extremism and
violence, and provide fool proof security to all CPEC projects and people
working there.
Also, Pakistan has to address the economic problems;
and that requires making some tough decisions. Economy of Pakistan can only be
sorted out by making some radical changes to the way Pakistan functions as a
country.
Apart from that the government must cut down
unproductive expenses including curbing of military budget. Furthermore, they
have to ‘bring in prudent fiscal measures’. However, it must be noted that
these actions will be resisted by the powerful establishment and other quarters
who wish to maintain the status quo. In any case, even if successfully
implemented still, these measures will take some years before showing expected
results.
Plan
of China
Plan of China is to help India and Pakistan to
resolve their outstanding disputes by a process of dialogue. If they cannot
resolve them due to domestic pressure or some other reasons, then at least. put
them on the back burner. In the meantime, both countries should trade with each
other and build bridges of confidence and encourage people to people contacts.
As a first step both countries were made full members
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a platform
established by China and Russia with help of other Central Asian countries to
promote better understanding and for political, economic and security
coordination.
China believes easing of tension and conflict
will promote better understanding and boost economic ties between India and
Pakistan, as reduction of tension in the 1970s resulted in better relations and
good economic relations between China and America.
The reduction of tension between India and
Pakistan will not only promote better understanding and peace in South Asia,
but it will also help China to complete its important project of the CPEC,
which will link Western China, the Middle East, and Africa. Furthermore, it
will enable China to control strategically important port of Gwadar.
Vijay Eswaran, Malaysian entrepreneur and Chairman of QI Group of
Companies while commenting on the situation said:
“China has always believed in an economic solution to solve
the world’s challenges. In that context, China may be willing to play a role in
potentially improving ties between India and Pakistan…The ongoing trade threats
from US to China encourages the latter to find a new big market. And India, the
largest markets for Chinese goods outside of the US is right in its
neighbourhood.” 3
Although both India and Pakistan have
taken part in military exercises in Russia to fight terrorism, however, both
countries disagree on definition of terrorism. What is terrorism to India, can
be a ‘jihad’ for Pakistan or a ‘freedom struggle’, under which people think
they have a licence to use gun, hate speeches and violence.
Both India and
China are on different sides of the divide in international disputes. For
example, on a dispute in the South China Sea, India is on the side of
America; and on a dispute on Jammu and Kashmir China is on the side of
Pakistan.
‘Another reason is that China has, so
far, done very little to satisfy India. Quite the opposite: repeatedly blocking
India's efforts to join the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG). The bottom line:
Beijing has a long way to go before it can bring India and Pakistan to the
table and ease long standing conflicts between the two countries.’ 4
Zhang Jun, Assistant
Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, Zhang Jun, while explaining strength of
India China relations said:
“We are neighbours, we are partners. Historically we were together and
in the future, I never believe that anybody can separate India and China.” 5
He was trying to delink the Sino - India relations from the
controversies surrounding the CPEC project and India’s objections to this. Zhang Jun further said: “China has repeatedly stated
the CPEC is an economic initiative. Implementing CPEC does not jeopardise
China’s position on Kashmir.”
However, it must be noted that despite
these clarifications of China, India is not satisfied with the existing Chinese
policy on Jammu and Kashmir. New Delhi view Chinese as ‘pro Pakistan’, and anti
- India.
While referring to meeting of Modi and
Xi in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Zhang Jun asserts that both leaders emphasised
on strengthening bilateral ties and start of a new phase of growth and
development. Zhang Jun says, the “Wuhan consensus” stress on better
understanding, and focus on ‘convergences than differences’.
The Chinese diplomats further point out
that after the Wuhan meeting, both leaders, Modi and Xi, met in SCO Summit in
Qingado and BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, and have reached “important
understandings.” “There is a fresh impetus in bilateral ties,” Zhang Jun
further added.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson,
Hua Chunying, while speaking to a regular news briefing highlighted importance
of participation of Indian and Pakistani troops in the military drill. She also
acknowledged importance of India Pakistan friendly relationship by saying:
“We welcome India and Pakistan’s joint
participation in this counter-terrorism exercise under the SCO framework. These
two countries are important ones in South Asia. Their relations’ stability is
significant to the peace and development of the region and the whole world.” 6
The Chinese Spokesperson earnestly hoped that both
countries could strengthen their cooperation and discourse for the peace and
stability of the region. Hua Chunying said, both
countries can improve their relations “bilaterally and within multilateral
mechanisms like the SCO, work together to improve their ties and jointly
maintain regional peace and stability.” 7
China is aware of India and Pakistan
differences, and what are their concerns on the contentious issues. In June
2018, China acknowledged that Beijing was concerned about deteriorating India
Pakistan relations; and that China was making sincere endeavours to persuade
India to improve their relations and jointly combat terrorism instead of
fighting each other.
On 21 August 2018,
new Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan tweeted:
“To move forward, Pakistan and India must have a
dialogue and resolve their conflicts including Kashmir. The best way to
alleviate poverty and uplift the people of the subcontinent is to resolve our
differences through dialogue and start trading.”
Also, there
were reports emanating from New Delhi that poverty and stability can only be
achieved by promoting peace and trade. Realising a change in the air, the
Chinese leadership came out openly by saying that China is ready to help
Pakistan and India to resolve differences.
Lu Kang, Spokesperson of Foreign
Ministry of China in press briefing in Beijing said:
“We have noticed relevant reports and
welcomed the positive attitude of the Pakistani and Indian leaders in improving
bilateral relations. As a common neighbour of Pakistan and India,
China firmly supports both the countries to strengthen dialogue, enhance mutual
trust, resolve differences and work together for regional peace and development
- while China is willing to continue to play a constructive role in this
regard.” 8
Lu Kang further said, for the peace
and stability of the region, it is imperative that both India and Pakistan
continue to improve relations and work together. As long as there is a
possibility of peace, China was prepared to play a ‘positive and constructive
role’. China regard India and Pakistan important countries in South Asia. They
both need to improve relations for the peace, stability and prosperity of the
region. 9
China, perhaps assumed a role of a
mediator to help India and Pakistan to resolve their outstanding disputes; or
at least put them on the backburner until such time that there is sufficient
trust and confidence to resolve these disputes.
Lijian
Zhao, Deputy Chief of the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad, while talking to a news
conference in Islamabad said:
“The
Pakistan-India relationship is now at a new low. China has been trying to work
with India to ask them to improve relationship with Pakistan. This is in the
interest of both countries.” 10
The
Chinese diplomat said it is part of Beijing’s diplomatic initiative to ease
regional tensions by promoting economic cooperation. In this context, China and
India have identified economic projects in Afghanistan where they can jointly
work. Lijian Zhao explained the Indian involvement in Afghanistan to assuage
Pakistani concerns. Zhao emphasised that both countries should work for the
betterment of their people instead of wasting their resources on arms race.
This joint
initiative is in line with agreement reached between Chinese President Xi
Jinping and Prime Minister Modi in a meeting in Qingdao. They agreed to jointly
identify projects in Afghanistan and implement the plans, especially in areas
like capacity building and training of staff in certain fields.
Pakistan
is very apprehensive about Indian involvement in Afghanistan, because Islamabad
believes India and Afghanistan are behind ‘terrorism’ in Pakistan. Both India
and Afghanistan deny this allegation of Pakistan. However, on strength of this
propaganda, overwhelming majority of people of Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir
agree with these allegations of Pakistan.
Afghanistan
is a war-torn country, which desperately needs peace, and political and
economic stability. However, because of different and competing reasons, America,
China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and other neighbouring countries want to have a
foothold there. In order to increase their influence in Afghanistan, they are
prepared to spend huge amounts of money and risk lives of their people.
Importance
of this region is becoming more important. In the fast - changing global
politics, it is likely that new political and strategic alliances may take
place. Old enemies may become allies, as they change sides to become part of
new alliances.
The prevailing
new thinking is that big countries of Asia need to enhance mutual cooperation
and promote trade and commerce, as that is the only way to protect interests of
Asia. They need to collectively work for the betterment of the people.
In view of
this, it is possible that countries like India and Pakistan eschew old policies
of confrontation; and promote trade, and people to people contacts. They may
put all difficult disputes on the backburner and wait until such time that
there is sufficient trust and confidence on each other to resolve outstanding
disputes by a process of a dialogue.
Reference:
4. Ibid
6. Ibid
7. Ibid
8.
Published
in Daily Times, August 25th 2018
9.
Ibid
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