Price of four week Pakistan India conflict pegged
at $500bn
Combined cost of airstrikes and sustained combat air patrols estimated
at over $25 million per day for PAF.
By Dr Farrukh
Saleem. May 10, 2025
Pakistan
Air Force (PAF) fighter jet F-16 performs to commemorate Pakistan Air Force's
'Operation Swift Retort', following the shot down of Indian military aircrafts
on February 27, 2019 in Kashmir, during an air show in Karachi, on February 27,
2020. — Reuters
The ongoing
conflict between India and Pakistan has already imposed significant economic
burdens on both countries. On the military front, three primary cost components
stand out: airstrikes, extensive drone deployments and elevated levels of
combat readiness.
Assuming
the Indian Air Force (IAF) conducts approximately 100 sorties per day using
Rafale, Mirage 2000, Su-30MKI, and Tejas aircraft, the estimated fuel and
operational cost per sortie is around $80,000.
If
precision-guided munitions (PGMs) such as SCALP EG, Spice 2000, Hammer, and
laser-guided bombs (LGBs) are employed — at a rate of 30 to 40 munitions per
day — individual weapon costs range from $100,000 to $1.1 million. Over a
four-week period, the total cost of sustained airstrikes could reach
approximately $6 billion.
For India,
the daily deployment of approximately 30 unmanned aerial systems — including
Harop and IAI loitering munitions, along with Heron and Searcher drones —
supported by ISR operations, logistics, and electronic warfare (EW) assets,
entails substantial expenditure.
Factoring
in UAV attrition and replacement, satellite bandwidth, ground control stations
(GCS), and jamming capabilities, the estimated cost could reach $100 million
per day — totalling nearly $3 billion over a four-week period.
For India,
the daily use of 10 BrahMos missiles — launched from air, land or sea —
alongside 10 to 20 Pralay ballistic missiles or precision-guided MLRS, would
result in an estimated expenditure of $150 million per day. Over a four-week
period, this would amount to approximately $4.5 billion.
Under the
category of "heightened readiness", daily costs are substantial.
Troop mobilisation and fuel consumption are estimated at $40 million per day.
Maintaining air defence systems — including the S-400, Akash, and BARAK-8 —
adds another $20 million daily.
Naval fleet
readiness for both the Eastern and Western Naval Commands contributes an
additional $50 million per day. Combined, these readiness expenditures total
approximately $5.4 billion over a four-week period.
For the
Pakistan Air Force (PAF), the combined cost of airstrikes and sustained combat
air patrols is estimated at over $25 million per day — amounting to roughly $1
billion over a four-week period.
Drone
operations, assuming the deployment of Turkish Bayraktar systems along with
missile usage such as Ra’ad and Hatf-VII, are projected to cost an additional
$450 million.
For
Pakistan, heightened readiness and border alert — encompassing troop movements,
fuel consumption, radar activation, surface-to-air missile (SAM) deployments,
and the mobilisation of intelligence and signals intelligence (SIGINT) assets —
are estimated to cost $15 million per day, totalling approximately $450 million
over a four-week period.
For India,
in addition to direct military expenditures, the broader economic fallout
includes four major cost categories. First, GDP disruption is estimated at $150
billion.
Second,
financial market volatility and currency depreciation could result in losses of
up to $90 billion. Third, trade disruptions and supply chain breakdowns will
lead to losses of around $80 billion. Fourth, foreign direct investment (FDI)
inflows will shrink by around $100 billion.
For
Pakistan, the indirect economic impact of the conflict will also be
substantial. GDP disruption — stemming from halted economic activity and
overall economic uncertainty — is estimated at $25 billion.
Financial
market instability and currency depreciation, $15 billion. Trade and supply
chain disruptions around $12 billion. Additionally, FDI inflows and IMF-related
losses of $5 billion. Taken together, for both Pakistan and India, the total
cost of the conflict over a four-week period is projected to exceed $500
billion.
The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.
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