If Hormuz remains closed, can Gwadar and Karachi help?
Dr Shabir Choudhry, London, 1 April 2026
Recent reports indicate that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could remove 13–14 million barrels/day of oil supply, roughly 20% of global petroleum trade.
Asia is most vulnerable because 80–89% of Gulf oil exports normally go to Asian markets, including India, China, Japan, Pakistan and South Korea.
LNG supply is even more fragile since Qatar’s gas exports (≈20% of global LNG) largely depend on Hormuz with no viable bypass pipelines.
Strategic importance of Gwadar and Karachi
1. Gwadar Port – Long-term strategic potential - Gwadar Port
Gwadar is often discussed as a potential alternative logistics hub because:
Advantages
- Located outside the Persian Gulf chokepoint
- Connected to China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
- Could theoretically handle energy imports from Africa or Central Asia
- Strategically positioned near major sea lanes of the Arabian Sea
- Less exposed to Gulf military escalation
Limitations
- Infrastructure still developing
- Limited refinery and storage capacity
- Road/rail pipeline connectivity incomplete
- Cannot rapidly substitute Gulf export volumes
- Political/security constraints in Balochistan
Conclusion:
Gwadar is strategically important long-term, but not immediately capable of replacing Hormuz flows.
2. Karachi Port – operational but capacity-constrained - Port of Karachi
Karachi is Pakistan’s main commercial port and already handles:
- crude oil imports
- LNG terminals
- container trade
However:
- It depends heavily on Gulf suppliers
- LNG cargoes often originate in Qatar
- Shipping insurance costs rise sharply in wartime
- Storage capacity is limited relative to national demand
Pakistan has already reduced LNG purchases due to supply uncertainty and price increases.
Key strategic reality: the bottleneck is not only routes but also capacity
Even where pipelines bypass Hormuz (Saudi Petroline, UAE Fujairah route), analysts note ports themselves limit how much oil can be redirected — only about 25% of normal Hormuz volumes can realistically be replaced in the short term.
Therefore:
Gwadar + Karachi cannot compensate for the closure of a chokepoint through which 20 million barrels/day normally pass.
Implications for South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh)
Likely effects
- Energy shortages and higher prices
- LNG shortages affecting power generation
- Shift back to coal or domestic fuels
- inflation and slower economic growth
- supply chain disruptions
- pressure on foreign exchange reserves
Asia may temporarily increase coal use to offset LNG shortages caused by the crisis.
Economic modelling suggests prolonged disruption leads to broader inflation and growth shocks beyond oil markets.
Big geopolitical insight
If Hormuz disruption persists:
- Energy supply routes diversify
- Russia, Central Asia, and Africa are becoming more important suppliers
- CPEC, Gwadar and Indian west coast ports gain long-term relevance
- Maritime chokepoints become strategic military targets
- The global power balance may gradually shift eastwards
But such transitions take years, not weeks.
Bottom line
Gwadar and Karachi can help partially, but cannot replace Hormuz.
They are:
- strategic backup nodes
- useful for diversification
- geopolitically important
- insufficient to offset a major Gulf supply disruption
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world economy. END.
