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Reports suggest that India, Pakistan, Mongolia and Iran will be invited
to become full members of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation.
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If true, India’s membership could have a major impact on its relations
with China, the United States and Russia.
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It could also have a paradigm-changing impact upon India-Pakistan
relations, with a radical effect on India’s energy security and its overall
economy.
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For its part, the Government of Pakistan could diminish the Army’s
influence on foreign and security policy, reduce its military budget and
re-allocate that saving to urgently-required energy, water and food security
initiatives.
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All in all, SCO membership would be a superb opportunity for India’s
economic, political and social development, but much thought must go into
examining the terms and conditions, not to mention the implications, of that
membership.
The SCO – composed of
China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – was created
in 1996, for the most part to demilitarise the border between China and Russia.
Uzbekistan was made a member in 2001 and the organisation, which was called the
Shanghai Five until then, renamed itself as the SCO. More recently, its
activities have included military co-operation, intelligence sharing, and
counter-terrorism drills between its member states. Some analysts see the SCO
as a major anti-US instrument of Russia and China in Central Asia. Others,
however, believe that underlying friction between Russia and China precludes a
unified organisation.
Should India,
Pakistan, Mongolia and Iran become members of the SCO, the organisation will
comprise a land mass that extends from Europe’s eastern border to the Pacific
Ocean and from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean. It will include the populations
of China and India, estimated at 2.4 billion or a full third of the world’s
population, the major energy resources of Iran, Mongolia and Russia, and the
wherewithal to pose a political and security counter to NATO. On the economic
front, the rising economies of China, Russia and India could counter the
economic clout of the United States and its allies.
A major question is why China, which
had previously opposed India’s membership in SCO, changed its mind.
It is common knowledge
that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi addressed India’s membership
in the SCO on the side-lines of the BRICS summit in Brazil in July this year.
It is possible that China, noting that the Bharatiya Janata Party won
sufficient seats to govern in its own right and not be held hostage to
coalition politics, could now effectively pursue economic, social, security and
political reform.
It is equally possible that Russia pressured China to grant India membership in SCO because of New Delhi’s perceived shift towards the West after the US replaced Russia as India’s largest defence supplier.
It is equally possible that Russia pressured China to grant India membership in SCO because of New Delhi’s perceived shift towards the West after the US replaced Russia as India’s largest defence supplier.
Recognising India’s shift towards the
West, China might also have decided that it would be more beneficial to have
India in a position whereby New Delhi could be influenced to side with Moscow
and Beijing instead of Washington and London. Furthermore, given the animosity generated towards
China by its activities in the South China Sea Beijing may be sensitive to the
fact that it cannot have a state that is actively building ever-closer ties
with the West on its continental border, let alone one that could be influenced
to turn hostile towards it.
It is, however, in the energy sector that China has more cause for worry. In November 2013, Vietnam offered India seven oil blocks off its coast to prospect, including three on an exclusive basis. When China objected, Vietnam and India together stridently announced India’s right to explore for oil in the Vietnamese exclusive economic zone, part of which is claimed by China. India has also announced its right to free navigation in the South China Sea, thus ignoring China’s claims to it. China can ill afford to have an antagonistic India in its west, especially one which is growing ever closer to the West, when it needs to concentrate on events in the East and South China Seas.
Essentially, China stands to gain more than it loses by withdrawing its opposition to Indian membership in the SCO.
It is, however, in the energy sector that China has more cause for worry. In November 2013, Vietnam offered India seven oil blocks off its coast to prospect, including three on an exclusive basis. When China objected, Vietnam and India together stridently announced India’s right to explore for oil in the Vietnamese exclusive economic zone, part of which is claimed by China. India has also announced its right to free navigation in the South China Sea, thus ignoring China’s claims to it. China can ill afford to have an antagonistic India in its west, especially one which is growing ever closer to the West, when it needs to concentrate on events in the East and South China Seas.
Essentially, China stands to gain more than it loses by withdrawing its opposition to Indian membership in the SCO.
It is pertinent to try to determine why
an offer of membership was made at this time, assuming it was made or is to be
made at all. It
could be that China and Russia are trying to prove a point to the US; Modi is
to meet US President Obama in September. It is possible that the issue of
India’s support for Russia will be dealt with during this meeting. At a recent
meeting with Indian officials, US Secretary of State John Kerry was informed
that India would take no part in US sanctions against Russia due to its actions
in the Ukraine. Instead, much to Kerry’s disappointment, India stated that
Russia had every right to act in the Ukraine. In essence, India was making the
point that it would pursue its own agenda of non-alignment and would take no
sides. This runs counter to US objectives.
On the one hand, the
US seeks to contain Russia and China, at this time the two most important
countries in the SCO, and simultaneously bring India within its orbit. If
India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia become members of the organisation, it would
be a blow to US strategy and simultaneously prove a boon to China and Russia.
Finally, it is necessary to attempt to discern how membership in the SCO might benefit India. Given India’s chronic shortage of energy, membership in the SCO, especially if Pakistan and Iran also accept membership, will pay particularly rich dividends. As noted previously, the Russian-Chinese oil and gas pipelines could be extended to India. This will have the obvious benefits of enhancing India’s energy security by diversifying its sources.
Finally, it is necessary to attempt to discern how membership in the SCO might benefit India. Given India’s chronic shortage of energy, membership in the SCO, especially if Pakistan and Iran also accept membership, will pay particularly rich dividends. As noted previously, the Russian-Chinese oil and gas pipelines could be extended to India. This will have the obvious benefits of enhancing India’s energy security by diversifying its sources.
It is Pakistan’s membership, however,
that will give India cause to rejoice. Assuming that common membership will
lead to better relations and a large reduction in the tensions between the two
countries, India could arguably re-visit the creation of the
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India and Iran-Pakistan-India pipelines.
For its part, Pakistan
could levy a negotiated transit fee on the energy supplies to India while,
simultaneously, using the pipelines to alleviate its own shortfalls in energy supplies. Increased energy supplies will
create an enlarged manufacturing sector in the Indian economy, which results,
in turn, in more and better employment opportunities, better education and a
higher standard of living.
An obvious drawback
that could jeopardise this scenario is the Pakistani Army, which sees itself as Pakistan’s defence against
all threats including, in its perception, a successful India. The Pakistani
Army, moreover, is currently allocated approximately 22 per cent of Pakistan’s
budget. It is difficult to envision the Army leaders willingly giving up that
proportion of funding, and the attendant power, to a civilian government.
Another is the militant groups that were either created by the Pakistani Army
or are controlled by them. These groups, which have been used to wage a proxy
war against India, will now have to be made to cease their attacks on India and
refrain from anything that could provide India with either benefit or
advantage.
If Pakistan could neutralise these two threats, it could itself move away from the verge of becoming a failed state and allow the government to formulate foreign and security policy, as it rightfully ought to do.
If Pakistan could neutralise these two threats, it could itself move away from the verge of becoming a failed state and allow the government to formulate foreign and security policy, as it rightfully ought to do.
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