To say that the Middle East never ceases to surprise is an
understatement. Players in the region throw curveballs just when they are least
expected. This time, it’s Saudi Arabia’s turn to pitch, and the kingdom’s airstrikes in Yemen have initiated what could be a
dramatic turn of events. For its closest client state, where Saudi Arabia goes,
Pakistan follows with blind obedience.
When
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif departed for Riyadh at
the beginning of March, few eyebrows were raised in Pakistan. The Pakistani
premier was simply going to meet the newly crowned king and catch up with old
friends in the royal court. There were murmurs of Saudis wanting Pakistani help
to control Iranian influence in the region, but the honorable prime minister
played hard to get and gave a tenuous no to Pakistan’s patrons in Riyadh. After
receiving a $1.5 billion “friendly
grant” from Saudi Arabia at the beginning of his term, Sharif was playing hard
to get. The prime minister managed to receive the $1.5 billion without ever
publicly committing to Saudi’s regional interests.
The Qatari emir soon made his way to Islamabad,
talking about billions of dollars of investments and boosting trade ties with
Pakistan. As the emir departed, a tanker carrying Qatari liquefied natural gas
(LNG), the first such shipment, arrived, signaling the beginning of a deal
estimated to be worth$22 billion.
With this deal, something was brewing, but it was hard to read the signals
coming out of Islamabad.
It was
only when the Saudis announced the formation of a coalition and the
initiation of airstrikes in Yemen against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels that
the pieces of the puzzle fell into place: Pakistan delayed making a decision
and extracted a better deal from its patrons, and was now en route to getting
embroiled in yet another regional conflict that would involve the extravagant
use of proxies.
With a
Pakistani delegation arriving in Riyadh on April 1, it was all but certain
that a deal had been reached between the two countries. The Saudi news agency
was the first to break the news,
stating that a number of countries, including Pakistan, have “expressed desire
to participate in the operation.” Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson,
Tasnim Aslam, iteratedthat
“the Saudi request to become part of its coalition against Yemeni rebels is
currently being examined.” Sharif gave the knockout punch, telling participants at a high-level meeting in Islamabad
that any threat to Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity would evoke a strong
response from Pakistan. All three sources could have simply said that Pakistan
will be handsomely paid for agreeing to join the Saudis and their allies in
containing an Iranian threat in Yemen. Reports have already confirmed that Pakistan
has provided naval support to the ongoing airstrikes in Yemen.
It was
expected that the delegation would smooth over the details of the deal, agree
upon the dollar amount, and dutifully dispatch an unknown number of forces to
serve the Saudi monarchy. Pakistan’s nascent democracy and vocal media,
however, created a hindrance for the government. Opposition partiesin
Pakistan demanded an All Parties Conference to discuss developments in Yemen,
and the prime minister responded by calling for a joint session of Parliament
to be held on April 6.
Such was
the seriousness of the debate that Imran Khan’s political party, the Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf, ended its
months-long boycott of parliament. As parliament debates the country’s policy
with regards to Yemen, the Iranian foreign minister is also expected to visit Islamabad
next week. Ongoing developments have placed Sharif in a tough situation
requiring him to find a way to fulfill Saudi requests while placating the
opposition at home.
While
Pakistan will have to take into account its own interests, the vocal debate
within Pakistan will be used as a bargaining chip to extract more concessions
and dollars from the Saudis. Ultimately, financial constraints and the need to
keep its patrons happy will lead to Pakistan’s engagement in the conflict. How
significant this contribution is remains to be seen, but one can expect naval
resources, fighter jets, and some form of special operations contingent to join
the coalition.
Inflows of billions of dollars, a preferential LNG deal with
Qatar, and promises for further “friendly grants” will allow Sharif’s
government to deliver on its promises of economic development. However, getting
embroiled in a clash between two regional powers — Saudi Arabia and Iran —
split between civilizational and sectarian lines, is bound to have dramatic
near- and long-term challenges for Pakistan’s security.
With
violence against Shiites and minorities already out of control in Pakistan, a policy decision to
exchange forces for dollars will surely feed the flames that are ravaging the
country. It will also lead to a response from Iran, which will surely reply in
kind along their mutual Balochistan border, doing everything in its power to
make Pakistan pay for its alliance with the Saudis. Sectarian militant
organizations — both of the extremist Shiite and Sunni kind — will up the ante,
risking the unraveling of hard-fought gains against militants in recent months.
At a time
when internal issues are causing irreparable damage to Pakistan, the decision
to join an anti-Iran alliance with Saudi Arabia is futile, as it will
antagonize Iran, fuel sectarian conflict at home, and distract a military
fighting a war on its western front. Alas, for Pakistan, it signals a
continuation of past trends, where the country has sold its strategic
intereststo the highest bidder: like Pakistani pilots flying Saudi
planes to repel Yemeni forces in 1969 or Gen. Zia ul-Haq taking billions of
dollars in aid to help the mujahedeen forces against the Soviets in the 1980s.
Sharif’s government is simply opening a new chapter in this established
tradition.
It would
be unfair to argue that Sharif — or the military — is in a position to deny the
Saudis. Without financial independence, a nation cannot pursue an independent
foreign policy. Given Pakistan’s consistent need for foreign funding to keep
the economy afloat, it cannot say no to its patrons. This time around, it will
be parliament and not a dictator making the decision. This is the only positive
outcome from the situation.
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