JIHADI THREAT TO INDIA IS NEXT DOOR, NOT IN ARABIA
Friday, 07 August 2015 | Ashok Mallik
Pakistan is
talking up the Islamic State’s presence in South Asia and the grave threat it
poses to India to divert attention from the real issues plaguing bilateral ties
and regional peace. India musn’t fall for this propaganda
On August 23 and 24, the National Security Advisers
of India and Pakistan will meet in New Delhi. Few if any will hazard a
prediction as to the outcome, though it would be prudent to limit expectations.
Even so, what can safely be foretold is a media frenzy, non-stop television
coverage and Twitter chatter.
The NSA-level talks were announced when the two
Prime Ministers met in Ufa, Russia, recently. Governments in India and Pakistan
have chosen to interpret the mandate of the upcoming meeting differently. The
Pakistanis, particularly the team around Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, said it
implied the resumption of the composite dialogue by another name and eventually
“all outstanding issues” would be discussed. This was to stave-off criticism at
home that the Kashmir dispute had not been mentioned in the joint statement at
Ufa.
The Indian side, quizzically, decided not to refute
the Pakistani Government’s briefings, arguing off-the-record that it wanted to
“keep Nawaz in play” and strengthen the civilian regime vis-à-vis the Army.
Many previous Prime Ministers and Governments in Delhi have suffered from the
delusion that India has the capacity to bolster a civilian administration in Islamabad
against the generals in Rawalpindi. Why somebody as hard-headed as Prime
Minsister Narendra Modi seemed to fall for this line, even if temporarily, is
not immediately clear.
Nevertheless, the reverie was soon ended by the
Pakistani Army, which triggered another round of firing at the border. This
diminished any confusion in Delhi and led to an iteration of the idea that
India sees the NSA’s conversation as largely limited to terrorism and
safeguarding Indians from religious radicalism that can turn violent and spill
across the Line of Control or the Radcliffe Line.
In spite of this, the past few days have seen
ambiguous messaging from various quarters. A mystifying notion is being spread
that the fundamental Islamist challenge to the subcontinent comes from the
Islamic State. It is said that the Islamic State is threatening Afghanistan,
Pakistan and India and, as such, these countries are equal targets of the
militia that has spread mayhem in Syria and Iraq.
Mystifyingly, many seem to have bought into this
idea, with the domestic intelligence agencies talking up the Islamic State
challenge as they talked up the alleged Al Qaeda threat to the Indian mainland
a few years ago.
Papers apparently found in Islamic State hideouts,
and probably indicative of outrageous dream scenarios for the Islamic State
rather than workbable blueprints, have been cited. Once more, as happens every
few years, apocalyptic visions of a final and defining war, of a centuries-old
“Khorasan prophecy” and an attack on India (Ghazwa-e-Hind), are being spoken
about.
Earlier this century, Ghazwa-e-Hind was meant to be
Al Qaeda’s plan for the annihilation and Islamisation of India. Today, it is
the Islamic State’s plan for the annihilation and Islamisation of India. One
supposes regurgitating old theories is necessary to keep intelligence agency
report writers and newspaper columnists busy.
It is worth noting though that diplomatic sources
point to no imminent Islamic State threat to India. In fact, even references to
the Islamic State gaining ground in Afghanistan are seen as exaggerated. One
senior official told this writer that dissident and loose Taliban factions,
which may have broken away from a larger group due to turf or treasure, have
probably adopted the Islamic State label in Afghanistan. That apart, there have
been odd displays of Islamic State flags in the Kashmir valley, largely for the
benefit of television cameras. Overall, it is likely, the Islamic State has
more Twitter accounts in India than actual lethal fighters
This is not to
discount the Islamic State challenge nor to suggest, the Islamic State does not
want to vanquish India (or for that matter make deep inroads in Afghanistan and
Pakistan, as part of its caliphate project). It is just that aspiration and
reality are different. The Islamic State remains a substantially Arabia-based
movement for the moment. Before it turns its attention to Afghanistan and the
subcontinent, it needs to defeat Iraq’s Shia south and the Shia vastness of
Iran. It also needs to capture territory and influence in Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates. Dilli, as they say, durast: Delhi is a long
distance.
So where is this Islamic State phobia and this
concern of a likely Islamic State invasion coming from? It is telling that the
story is emphasised most often by the Pakistanis. It would appear the
Inter-Services Intelligence and the Pakistani Army are talking up the Islamic
State presence to divert attention from and in a sense even mainstream the
Taliban. The fantasy plan of an India-Pakistan joint front against the Islamic
State has also emerged from Pakistan Government sources. Some Pakistani
analysts have gone to the extent of saying the supposed age-old prophecy of
Ghazwa-e-Hind actually promises war against Pakistan as well, as the Hind it
refers to is undivided India. Clearly, somebody is trying sell the Modi
Government a lemon.
The Islamic State is no friend of India. Having
said that, the immediate threat and the danger for the foreseeable future comes
from the ISI and its proxy terrorist groups in Pakistan, and from the
Rawalpindi/Islamabad-backed attempts by the Taliban to re-establish itself in Afghanistan
as the Americans move out. The supposed Islamic State outposts in the Indian
region are a red herring.
During his recent visit to Central Asia, Mr Modi
discussed the situation in Afghanistan with several of its neighbours. One
feedback the Indian delegation received was the Taliban was preparing for a far
wider area domination than in the late 1990s. Then, the northern areas of
Afghanistan, bordering Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, had been left free for the
Taliban’s non-Pashtun rivals to re-group. This time, the Indian Prime Minister
was told, the Taliban was planning to begin by consolidating northern
Afghanistan.
Obviously, all this is being plotted with the
assistance of the military establishment in Pakistan. The Islamic State is
clearly not a huge factor, as is being made out for an Indian audience. The
Government needs to approach the August 23-24 talks with that realism.
(The writer is
senior fellow, Observer Research Foundation. He can be reached at
malikashok@gmail.com)
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