Pakistan
needs to live in a real world. Dr Shabir Choudhry
London 28 July 2018
Most Pakistanis are led to believe that “Pakistan
is here to stay forever.”
Their rationale is
that Pakistan was established in holy month of Ramadan and on most holy day (27th
Ramadan) therefore, ‘there is no power on earth which can undo Pakistan.’
Perhaps these people don’t realise that strength of
ideology of Pakistan was tested in 1970/71, and it was shattered. Despite lofty
claims, Pakistan was defeated and suffered the biggest surrender in human
history. Eastern wing of Pakistan became Bangladesh and is thriving. In the
remaining Pakistan, there is rampant corruption, injustice, oppression and
insurgencies are going on to get independence.
Countries do not survive because of a common religion.
There are 57 Muslim countries; and some of them are fighting each other.
Despite having the same religion, the all have separate existence. Some of them
have different sects, different history, different culture, different
interests, and different friends and foes.
It is becoming apparent that the Pakistani elite and
the people won’t understand these facts until it becomes too late. They are
stubborn and short-sighted. Instead of solving the problems they face as a
result of their inefficiency, bad governance, nepotism, corruption, injustice and
oppression, they always look for conspiracy theories to blame other countries.
With this mind-set and
approach, how can they face challenges of the 21st century, and
solve complex national and international problems. Pakistanis claim, ‘We are
the most resilient nation’. Maybe they are resilient, but is that sufficient to
make progress, and compete with other countries who have dedication, vision and
clearly thought out strategies.
You can fool some
people by saying we have this problem because of so and so country. Please tell
me, on instructions of which country people of Pakistan do all the bad things
which are damaging health of children, old and weak? Which foreign country
tells them to mix water in milk and sell out of date and fake medicines? Does
Israel or India tell them to sell donkey meat and other contaminated meat of
dead animals? Which foreign secret agency tells Pakistani officials to take
bribe to do something for which government pays them to do it anyway?
Come on people, enough
with this nonsense. Stop this blame game to divert attention from your bad
governance and corruption ridden society, which has torn apart social and
political structure of Pakistan.
On issue of conspiracy
theories, A Kiyani in her tweet on 28 July 2018 stated:
Chief
Justice says, Water crises in Pakistan is an international conspiracy. Most of
the people would believe him because we just love conspiracy theories and shifting
blames. We think we are so important to world that all intelligence agencies in
world are busy plotting against us’. 1
Husain
Haqqani, a distinguished writer and political analyst, who is currently Director
for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC, and
was also Pakistan’s Ambassador to America, in his recent article wrote:
‘the generals — and now their ‘elected’ protégés — need to
understand that the country’s low literacy, low exports, and high infant
mortality are not the result of actions of Pakistan’s enemies or even the
consequence of politicians’ corruption. Some of Pakistan’s domestic policy
failures are the product of the military’s national security policies. 2
Husain Haqqani, also
confirms this view that there was rigging in the elections, and that around 371,388
troops were sent, ‘ostensibly on security duty’, and that the men in uniform
were not worried being ‘photographed violating the sanctity of secret ballot
or telling the polling staff what to do’. He also confirms that the ‘Polling
agents were not provided signed returns and were even turned out of polling
stations in some places’.
Who can question the
actions or wisdom of men in uniform, especially those who don’t hesitate to silence
critics by use of gun, as a result, many famous Media Houses have decided to
call the elections ‘fair’ and ‘clean’. Some journalists, however, said we had
no option but to say this.
New government and new
challenges
Despite many tags and
shortcomings, the new leader who is ‘certified Sadiq and Ameen’ – honest and
trustworthy- will soon form a government in Islamabad. Let us forget for a
minute that he failed to perform well in KPK Province; and also, forget that he
will become Prime Minister with blessings of the powerful establishment.
We know what
challenges are there for him. Does he know all this? Has he got the ability and
know how to deal with these challenges? Imran Khan needs to know that Nawaz
Sharif did this, and Zardari did that will not help to resolve Pakistan’s
problems which require urgent attention. He needs to formulate his policies and
present a programme of action, rather than accusing his predecessors.
He was ardent critic
of metro bus project, and ridiculed it by calling it a ‘jangla bus’. He insisted
that people don’t need these big projects and infrastructure. Later on, when he
looked at its benefits and how people were benefitting from it in Rawalpindi
and Islamabad, he tried to do the same in Peshawar, and miserably failed.
Should we blame some foreign power for this failure or accept that the team
which tried this did not have the required experience.
As an ‘opposition
leader’ he fiercely opposed various projects related to the CPEC. Also, he
demanded transparency in these projects. I agree with him on this point, all
the projects must have a system of accountability and transparency.
After
becoming Prime Minister of Pakistan, is Imran Khan going to roll back these projects?
No. He won’t be allowed to do that, even if he wanted to. Pakistan and the
Pakistani elite needs the CPEC, rather desperately. He opposed the CPEC mainly
because Nawaz Sharif was spearheading it, and getting credit for all that. With
help of ‘allies’ Imran Khan ‘staged frequent protests that caused projects
associated with the corridor to be delayed’.
The mega project
of ‘Orange train’ was also delayed for 15 months due to court appeals; and
because courts reserved the decision. The court made a judgement on the matter,
but did not announce it. Imran Khan, famous for his U turns, said his target
was Nawaz Sharif and not the CPEC. It is believed that once in office, Imran
Khan will try to behave like a ‘good boy’ to assuage Beijing and Rawalpindi.
As an irresponsible
leader who luckily enjoyed superstar status was at liberty to say anything,
make U turns and get away with almost everything. Once in office, he will learn
how difficult it is to govern and satisfy all stakeholders. He knows he had difficulty
even managing his own party; and miserably failed to hold an election within
the party.
In his
victory speech, Imran Khan referred to the CPEC as a “huge opportunity”
to attract investment into Pakistan. Has the CPEC become ‘huge opportunity’ after
he has become the Chief Executive, or was it always a ‘huge opportunity’, and
Imran Khan either didn’t know or was not ready to acknowledge it.
Critics of
the CPEC has always expressed their scepticism on potential rewards and
disadvantages. Among the critics are some Pakistani economists, and experts of
the IMF who think Pakistani economy is unable to pay instalments of the CPEC
loans on top of the existing financial commitments. The result will be a
bailout package from the International Monetary Fund and social and economic
problems for Pakistan.
Andrew
Small, an expert on China Pakistan relations associated with the German
Marshall Fund, said if Pakistan has to obtain a new bailout package from the
IMF, ‘the energy projects would be among the ones with question marks around
them’, because of enormous obligations and expenditures to the Pakistani
government. 3
In opinion
of Andrew Small, in worst case scenario the upgrading of railway from Karachi
to Lahore could also become a victim, or its terms may be re- negotiated.
In my
opinion, this 8-billion-dollar project is of immense importance and it is very
unlikely that the government will abandon this. The new government may halt or
modify other projects, but will make every effort to complete this project because
of its importance.
Naubahar
Sharif, who is researching on the CPEC in the Hong Kong University of Science
and Technology, thinks Imran Khan will try to enhance his popularity by
demanding more transparency in order to provide information to the people that they
can ‘judge whether this is the right thing for Pakistan to do’. 4
China as a
money lender, and a country with so much at stake with the construction of the
CPEC, always like to keep plan B. They always have manoeuvrability to cope with
conceivable changes when there is a change of government, or other difficulties.
Sometimes a new leader has new ideas or priorities. However, in case of Pakistan,
no matter who is in the Prime Minister House, the CPEC will continue.
We know
Malaysia halted development of projects financed by China, but Pakistan is not
Malaysia; Pakistan is much weaker economically. China is too entrenched in
Pakistan; and the country is not in a position to say no, especially when relationship
with Washington is frosty and Pakistan is on the grey list.
In view of
the above situation, analysts like Naubahar Sharif think, “CPEC is vital to
the country’s economic prospects, and is not something to be cancelled or
ripped apart overnight”. 5
Who should be boss?
Who should
be boss in Pakistan, that is the fundamental question in Pakistan. Most of
Pakistan’s problems emanate from this simple and crucial question.
Who would
be ultimate boss in Pakistan, in a way, was decided in October 1947, when all
powerful civilian leader Mohammed Ali Jinnah ordered his army Chief General
Gracey to attack Jammu to cut off India’s supply line reaching Kashmir. General
Gracey, not only refused to implement this order, but also asked Mr Jinnah to
withdraw it. My Jinnah had to swallow this bitter pill, may be first time in
his life made a U turn, and withdrew his order.
Whoever
has openly challenged might of the Pakistani army has suffered; and in some
cases, lost his life, exiled or was put behind bars. However, there are open
voices in support of the civilian rule, but army always finds some politicians
to become their foot soldiers, hence direct or indirect army rule continues.
After the
July 2018 election, Senator Hasil Bizenjo (@hasilbizenjo) tweeted: ‘It's
about time that we decide that whether government in Pakistan shall be run by
the intelligence agencies or the electable’.
Husain Haqqani writes:
The Pakistani military obviously wants
a civilian façade in the form of an ‘elected’ government that follows the
military’s dictates on issues such as policy towards India, Afghanistan, Jihadi
terrorism, and relations with China and the US. It does not want a genuinely
popular civilian politician in power, backed by an electoral mandate, and
certainly not one that might alter the country’s overall direction. 6
Husain Haqqani thinks Nawas Sharif
abandoned his ‘ultranationalist, anti-India narrative’, because he
recognised the need to promote peace in the region to accomplish his economic
agenda. Nawaz Sharif’s change of mind led ’to a breach in his relations
with the establishment’.
Husain Haqqani thinks, ‘Imran Khan
is not Nawaz Sharif. He is 65-years-old and might opt for not challenging the
short-sighted generals even after (or rather, if) he recognises the futility of
their obsessions. He could be content with being Prime Minister and manage some
aspects of government, without confronting the generals over altering the
country’s course’. 7
In order to remain in office, Imran
Khan will not dare to interfere in policy areas which are close to heart of the
army establishment. It means the slogan of ‘change’ will remain a slogan. If
Imran Khan dares to come out of his shell, he will also face plight of the
other civilian Prime Ministers.
This also means, the CPEC projects will
continue without any major changes.
Imran Khan’s talk on Kashmir
It was good to see Imran Khan talking
about problems of Kashmir. I wish he had pledged to stop sending armed warriors
to Kashmir who go there with intention of committing violence and terrorism in
name of Jihad. How can he expect to resolve the problems of people of Kashmir
if old policies which brought havoc to Kashmir and the people continue? May be
his new bosses did not allow him to talk about sending armed militants in
Kashmir.
I also wish if he had said something
about the plight of people of Gilgit Baltistan, and people of so called Azad
Kashmir. These people are also part of the former Princely State of Jammu and
Kashmir; and they are also suffering because of forced division, occupation and
economic and political exploitation.
Again, the brave new leader was too
afraid to say anything to annoy his new bosses. This means we will all have ‘old
wine’ in a new bottle with a new label.
Writer is a renowned writer and author of many
books. He is also a senior leader of UKPNP and Chairman South Asia Watch,
London.
Reference:
1.
More
4. Ibid
5. Ibid
7. Ibid
