Tuesday, 25 October 2016

Pakistan’s Crackdown on Terror Financing, all For Show? Umer Ali

Pakistan’s Crackdown on Terror Financing, all For Show?
Pakistan’s government appears to crack down on financing for proscribed groups, but will the policy make a difference?
By Umer Ali    October 18, 2016
In a major move, which for some is a quite familiar one, the State Bank of Pakistan directed all banks across the country to freeze the accounts of 2,021 individuals listed in the Fourth Schedule of the Anti-Terrorism Act. Formulated in 1997, the Anti-Terrorism Act allows the government to list individuals such that they are required to seek police permission to enter an area, empowering law enforcement agencies to observe their movements, among other things.
“All banks, development finance institutions, and microfinance banks have been advised to take immediate action as per requirement of the law against individuals, whose names are included in the lists of fourth schedulers provided by the National Counter-Terrorism Authority (NACTA),” a State Bank of Pakistan source told Dawn.
The list is dominated by representatives and leaders of various sectarian outfits, including well-known names like Ahmed Ludhianvi of Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), Aurangzeb Farooqi of ASWJ, Mullah Abdul Aziz of Lal Masjid, and Ramzan Mengal of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.
Interestingly, however, there is no mention of any office-bearer of Kashmir-related groups like Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), or Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM).
In Pakistan, many see this move with suspicion, referring to similar steps in the past that turned out to be highly ineffective.
For example when, for the first time ever, Pervez Musharraf banned jihadi outfits fighting in Kashmir and Afghanistan, declaring his support for the U.S.-led war against terror. Even then, these groups changed their names and continued to operate like before.
Owais Tohid, a veteran journalist who covered these groups for a decade, reported the same in his December 2003 piece for Newsline Magazine. Titled “And the Jihad goes on,” the piece explored the ways through which the banned groups continued their activities.
“Prominent leaders like Masood Azhar, chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad, and Maulana Fazl-ur Rehman Khalil, head of the banned Harkatul Mujahideen, issued statements in the Punjab, delivered addresses urging participants to come forward for jihad,” Tohid wrote.
In his now 13-year-old report, he discovered, “About 600 leaders and members of the banned groups have been asked to furnish surety bonds of good conduct, involving surety money of 100,000 rupees.”
He further reported that thousands of copies of jihadi newspapers and magazines were being sold on a daily basis.
Thirteen years on, Pakistan is still struggling to put effective curbs on the very same outfits.
In a 2015 article published by the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS), Safiya Aftab observed:
An important Counter Terrorism activity is denting the militant economy, through all possible ways: tracing the financial mechanisms of funding used by militants, neutralizing those sources, and preventing banned outfits from raising funds domestically or internationally.
She continued, “This element has received relatively little attention in Pakistan, for a variety of reasons like general lack of expertise in financial crime, and lack of appreciation of the intricacies of the militant economy.”
Amir Rana, the director of PIPS, believes that most of these groups generate funds through bank robberies, smuggling, and kidnapping for ransom. Commenting on why the State Bank of Pakistan’s move might not be effective, he says, “While the heads of many sectarian groups have been included in the list, it’s a given fact that their bank accounts wouldn’t have much of the money being generated through different means.”
“These groups hold several other accounts, through which large transactions are processed. Banning just the official accounts is not going to change anything.”
Senior journalist Azaz Syed, who works with Geo News, agrees that freezing the official bank accounts of selected individuals won’t change much. “Around 80 percent of their money comes through illegal means and it never reaches the bank accounts,” he says.
“This might just be a mere eyewash because most of their transactions are made in cash, hence there is no point freezing their bank accounts.”
Syed broke the news of the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA), which suspended the citizenship of 2,021 suspects linked with militant and sectarian groups last week.
“Prominent names on the list whose identity cards have been blocked include those of religious personalities including Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat leader Maulana Mohammad Ahmed Ludhianvi, Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz, Majlis-e-Wahdat-e-Muslimeen leader Allama Maqsood Ali Domki, and Mohsin Najfi,” he reported.
While the move received significant praise from certain quarters who deemed it a necessary step in the right direction, many human rights activists, lawyers, and journalists declared it to be a grave violation of basic human rights.
Azaz Syed himself takes the same view. “Instead of acting against the hardened terrorists, government is suspending the citizenships of many individuals on the basis of mere suspicion,” he says.
He added, “There is no court order to suspend their citizenship as well, which makes the order even more questionable.”
Syed further says that the absence of Kashmir-linked jihadi groups is big point of ambiguity on the supposed shift in state’s counterterror paradigm.
In an explosive scoop last week, Dawn’s senior staffer Cyril Almeida revealed a serious confrontation between civil-military leadership in a recent, undisclosed meeting.
Asking the military to act effectively against terrorists of all hues, the civilian government reportedly warned that Pakistan would face international isolation otherwise.
The highlight of this meeting, as reported by Almeida, was the “stunning and unexpectedly bold intervention” by Chief Minister of Punjab Shahbaz Sharif who blasted the director general of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lt. General Rizwan Akhtar, by saying that whenever his government acted against certain militants, ISI worked behind the scenes to set them free.
The exchange corroborated this writer’s report for The Diplomat, in which senior civilian security official lamented the military’s intervention when Punjab’s Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) raided JeM strongholds.
Almeida further reported that DG ISI Rizwan Akhtar would now visit all four provinces accompanied by the National Security Advisor Naseer Khan Janjua to meet the apex committees, as well as ISI sector commanders.
The message of these meetings, one of which Almeida claimed already took place in Lahore, is that military-led intelligence agencies are not to interfere if law enforcement acts against militant groups that are banned or until now considered off-limits for civilian action.
After a suicide attack killed over hundred people on Easter eve this March, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ordered the immediate arrest of suspects on the Fourth Schedule list. However, this wasn’t followed up and the news died out.
Earlier in 2015, a month after the horrible Army Public School attack in Peshawar in late-2014 that killed scores of children, Pakistan announced the freezing of JuD bank accounts. The announcement coincided with the visit of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who appreciated the move.
A document acquired by Dawn confirmed the proscribing of Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami, Harkat-ul-Mujahi­deen, Falah-i-Insaniat Foun­dation, Ummah Tameer-i-Nau, Haji Khairullah Hajji Sattar Money Exchange, Rahat Limited, Roshan Money Exchange, Al Akhtar Trust, Al Rashid Trust, the Haqqani network, and Jamaat-ud-Dawa.
However, in recent months, JuD’s activities have only increased, with its charity wing, Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF), expanding its “relief operations” to the rural areas of Sindh and Balochistan.
JuD is not the only group operating freely inside Pakistan, despite several claims by the government. In the month of Ramzan (Ramadan), Jaish-e-Mohammad’s charity wing, Al-Rehmat trust, openly collected donations outside mosques in Karachi, often in the presence of Pakistan Rangers personnel.
The Al-Rashid Trust, which is notoriously known for its terror network in Pakistan and Afghanistan, was also banned twice by the government. It changed its name to the Al-Ameen Trust and resumed its operations throughout the country. Even today, it’s operating freely under the name of the Maymar Trust.
Despite this history of deliberate inefficiency by the government, Fahd Hamayun, the program and research manager at Pakistan’s Jinnah Institute, believes the recent moves to be a good step forward. “This is a step in the right direction and should necessitate some level of parliamentary oversight to ensure effective implementation. Turning off the taps on terrorism financing is essential if the government is keen to demonstrate its commitment to the National Action Plan,” he says.
Criticizing the reluctance of the government to update the Fourth Schedule list, he adds, “So far the Interior Ministry’s reluctance to update its list of proscribed organizations is indicative of state lethargy in putting a blanket ban on all terror groups.”
In the end, this move will either turn out to just be for show or will actually show results – only time will tell what the government of Pakistan has planned to finally put an end to the operations of banned militant and sectarian groups in the country.
Umer Ali is a freelance journalist based in Pakistan. He covers human rights, social issues, terrorism and more. He can be reached on Twitter at @iamumer1
Shahid Afzal Khan also contributed in the research of this story.


Why India Pakistan could be a big headache for the next US president, By Barkha Dutt

Why India Pakistan could be a big headache for the next US president
By Barkha Dutt    October 25 at 12:27 PM
Barkha Dutt is an award-winning TV journalist and anchor with more than two decades of reporting experience. She is the author of “This Unquiet Land: Stories from India’s Fault Lines.” Dutt is based in New Delhi.
In an election campaign that has made Donald Trump look like a crazy, self-imploding clown, here are two statements the Republican presidential nominee has made that are indisputably true. The first was his observation that airports in the United States are like those in a (so-called) “Third World country.” The second was his comment that the India-Pakistan equation is a “very, very hot tinderbox.”
Indians and Pakistanis who agree on nothing these days found themselves nervously giggling in unison at Trump’s offer to “mediate” between the two countries. But unwittingly the bombastic candidate actually flagged one of the foreign policy challenges that could necessitate the next U.S. president’s early attention.
In the likely event of a Hillary Clinton win, her administration will no longer be able to count on New Delhi displaying what is known as strategic restraint; Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dramatically altered the traditional Pakistan doctrine with several high-risk firsts. None of the old rules apply.
Modi’s electoral campaign in 2014 mercilessly mocked India’s previous Congress government for being too soft on Pakistan and promised a muscular response to Islamabad-backed terrorists; his boasting of having a 56-inch chest came to be the ultimate metaphor for his government’s machismo. But armed with the largest political victory by any prime minister in 30 years, Modi in fact ended up displaying an audacious appetite for gambling on peace instead.

In May 2014, in a historic first, Modi invited Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his oath-taking ceremony. In December 2015, he showed the kind of dramatic gumption no leader before him had when he made a surprise unscheduled visit to Lahore to wish Sharif well on his birthday. When this trip was followed by a terrorist attack on an Indian air force installation, he held his nerve and allowed Pakistani investigators, including one from the Pakistani spy agency ISI, to visit the military base- another contentious first.
After these initiatives failed, Modi channeled the same capacity for taking perilous but strong-willed chances by turning hard line on Pakistan. The policy shift came earlier this year during a two-month period of civilian unrest in the Kashmir Valley spurred on by the killing of a local militant, Burhan Wani. The Modi government saw the internal dimension of anger and alienation as distinct from Pakistan’s fueling of the fire. A ratcheted-up campaign by the Sharif government to present Wani on the international stage as a sort of victim-hero prompted a furious India to underscore human rights violations by Pakistan in its own province of Baluchistan. Modi railed against these atrocities while addressing the nation on India’s Independence Day in the presence of the global diplomatic corps. This was a radical departure from the policy of all previous governments; India was challenging not just Pakistan, but China as well — the province is critical for Beijing’s proposed $46 billion economic corridorthat seeks to connect Xinjiang to the Gwadar port in Balochistan.
Then came the attack on an army camp in Kashmir in which 19 Indian soldiers were killed. Eleven days later, in the first such acknowledgment of its kind, the Modi government went public with the fact that special forces commandos had crossed the line of control (a military control line that serves as the de facto frontier separating Kashmir on the Indian side from the Pakistani side) to conduct surgical strikes on terror launchpads from where the Pakistani military facilitates the crossing over of armed infiltrators into Indian territory.

This is now India’s new normal — an attempt to increase the cost of terrorism for Pakistan and call out what many in Modi’s party called the “nuclear bogey.”  The conventional wisdom of ‘nuclear deterrence’ — that fears of escalation between two nuclear powers would hold back India from an officially owned punitive response to terrorism — has been openly challenged.
India’s message was not just for Pakistan but also for countries such as the United States that have long counted on the deterrence theory to manage regional tensions. Writers including George Perkovich and Toby Dalton (“Not War, Not Peace“) have argued that that a military counterattack by India could escalate to “destruction beyond imagination” but that has not happened — at least so far. The theater of conflict is currently confined to Jammu and Kashmir along the 124 mile-long international border and the 450-mile stretch of the line of control where a 13-year-old cease-fire is under threat. Mortar fire has returned to areas where even small-arms weapons had fallen more or less silent.
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How will (and should) the United States respond if the Indo-Pak border flares up further? Another terror strike on India’s mainland could send all calculations awry.
In contrast to Trump’s vague generalizations, Clinton has a keen understanding of how Pakistan’s “deep state” has for decades used terrorism as a virtual weapon of asymmetric warfare against India. In June 2014, Clinton told me in an interview that elements within the Pakistani Army and its main spy agency, the ISI, “were under the mistaken view that having these kinds of proxies vis-à-vis India, vis-à-vis Afghanistan was in Pakistan’s interests, not just the military’s interest, but in their sovereign interest.” She went on to compare this to “keeping poisonous snakes in your backyard expecting they will only bite your neighbor’’ as a commentary on how jihadists and obscurantists had begun to devour Pakistan from the inside.
As secretary of state, Clinton  announced a $10 million bounty for information leading to the arrest of Hafiz Saeed, key architect of the terrorist attacks in Mumbai on Nov. 26, 2008 and the Pakistan-based head of the Lakshar-e-Taiba. One-hundred and sixty-six people were killed in the 72-hour siege, including six Americans. Clinton told me she was struck by how “difficult” it must have been for India to show “restraint” after the attacks.

That restraint can no longer be taken for granted — that’s India’s messaging to Washington. Given Clinton’s proud mention of monitoring the operation that took out Osama bin Laden from his hideout in Pakistan (“While you were hosting ‘Celebrity Apprentice,’ Donald”), there is an expectation in India that she will bring some of her famed hawkishness to her administration’s Pakistan policy. No blank checks on military aid; stringent economic pressure to shut down terror groups; and a foreign policy grammar that doesn’t club India and Pakistan together, or worse, separate them only by a hyphen.
In September, in a closed-door Virginia fundraiser, Clinton warned of the dangers of a jihadist coup in Pakistan and the possibility of “suicide nuclear bombers.” She gets it. Which means in her early days in the Oval Office, Clinton may need to do some plain-speaking with Pakistan much sooner than she had bargained for.


The Kashmir issue - Let’s get the facts straight, by Kamran Siddiqui

The Kashmir issue is once again bringing Pakistan and India close to another armed conflict. The consequences of such conflict this time however, could be far more devastating for both countries than previous. The issue is alive for 68 years and there are still no signs of a peaceful settlement. While the public sentiments are high in both countries, the primary problem on Pakistan side is that these emotions are mostly built on biased history. Hence, it is critically important to get the facts straight because the recognition of factual grounds certainly help in looking at this problem from a rational perspective that will most likely help in reaching an appropriate solution. I have used a Q&A approach to elucidate the facts.
Question: Does Pakistan have a legal claim on the State of Kashmir?
Answer: No. Legally, the entire State of Kashmir is part of India. This right was awarded according to the Instrument of Accession signed by the Maharaja of Kashmir, Hari Singh, on October 26, 1947. Maharaja of Kashmir used his right as per Indian Independence Act 1947, which gave him authority of accede to either India or Pakistan. If the plebiscite is held in Kashmir and the decision is in Pakistan’s favor only then Pakistan has a legal claim on Kashmir.
Question: Did Maharaja of Kashmir made up his mind to join India at the time of partition?
Answer: No, the Maharaja of Kashmir had not reached a decision whether to join Pakistan or India by the time of partition and hence wanted to sign Standstill Agreements with both Pakistan and India i.e. buying more time to reach a decision. Pakistan agreed on the Standstill agreement while India invited a representative of Kashmiri government for negotiations. Instead of negotiating a better deal with Maharaja, the Pakistani government decided a military invasion of Kashmir. However, after the refusal from the British commander in chief as it violates the Indian Independence Act, Pakistani government covertly supported Pathan tribal militias to enter Kashmir and start fighting. Maharaja appealed to India to send troops but India declined this request since Kashmir was not part of India. Then Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession to officially join India. India then sent its troops to fight tribal militias. Thus, the illegal intrusion by Pakistan forced Maharaja to reach a decision in favor of India.
Question: Why Pakistan not able to force India to conduct plebiscite in Kashmir as per UN Security Council resolution of April 21, 1948?
Answer: Because Pakistan itself has not demonstrated its sincerity to act according to this UN resolution. Unfortunately, those Pakistanis who strongly belief that UN resolution must be enforced most likely have not read the content of the resolution. The first action item of this resolution is the withdrawal of Pakistani troops and militias from Kashmir. It other words, the primary requirement to arrange plebiscite is the withdrawal of Pakistani forces/militias from the entire Kashmir valley under Pakistani control including Gilgit and Bultistan. India was allowed to keep its forces in the entire Kashmir state but in reduced numbers primarily to maintain the law and order. Has Pakistan ever showed its willingness to fulfill condition on its part, over the last 67 years? When Pakistan never fulfilled the first condition, how can it force India to fulfill the plebiscite condition (seventh action item in the resolution)?  
Despite its weak legal position, Pakistan had some grounds to make its case for Kashmir. One argument was based on Pakistan’s ideological claim that it was created for Indian Muslims and comprised of all Muslim majority provinces in India. Since Kashmir is also a Muslim majority state, it naturally belongs to Pakistan. While this argument had logical basis, Pakistan had lost this argument after the separation of East Pakistan. The other argument was based on Pakistan’s dependency on water resources from Kashmir for its economic survival. However, history has witnessed that over last 68 years, the economy of Pakistan was not hampered due to the Indian control on these resources, along with the strained relations with India. This leads to a logical conclusion that as long as Pakistan gets its due share of water resources as per Indus water treaty, it can survive without Kashmir.
As the above facts and arguments show, at present the position of Pakistan on Kashmir issue is much weaker than what Pakistani people think. Therefore, it is time for the people of Pakistan to take these facts into consideration and think realistically whether it is wise for their country to put everything on stake for this issue and continue pouring a big portion of its financial resources via defense budget, which otherwise can be spent on their well being. It might be much better for both countries to make the line of control the permanent international border and ease the movement of Kashmiri people across it, improve bilateral relations, reduce defense spending and strengthen the economic cooperation.   
Kamran Siddiqui is a Professor at the University of Western Ontario in Canada.



Monday, 24 October 2016

My interview on Black Day 22 October:

http://wntv.uk/dr-shabir-choudhry-kashmir-national-party-uk/

Sunday, 23 October 2016

Memorandum presented to Nawaz Sharif Prime Minister of Islamic Republic of Pakistan on Black Day

Memorandum presented to Nawaz Sharif Prime Minister of Islamic Republic of Pakistan on Black Day    London          23 October 2016
Dear brother in Islam, Nawaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Islamic Republic of Pakistan may Allah’s mercy be on you.
1.     Whereas, as you know, Islam associates great importance on honouring agreements; it is sad to note that Islamic Republic of Pakistan openly and aggressively violated the Standstill Agreement which the Maharaja Hari Singh, as an independent Ruler of Jammu and Kashmir State concluded with Pakistan. Almighty Allah commands:
‘Oh people of faith, honour your pledges’. 1
2.      Whilst Islam rightly attaches great importance on saving human life and saving dignity of women and old, it pains me to point out that those who attacked our motherland – Jammu and Kashmir on 22 October 1947, looted and plundered our cities, villages and killed innocent people, burnt our shops and houses, kidnapped women and raped them. It adds to our suffering that all this was done in name of Islam and jihad.
We are sure you know Islam says: If you kill one innocent human being that is as if you have killed the entire humanity. During this unprovoked aggression which was designed to capture Kashmir, tens of thousands of innocent people of Jammu and Kashmir were mercilessly butchered; even women and old were not spared.
We wonder who will be held responsible for all these killings, rapes, kidnappings and forced conversions on the Day of Judgement. Our beloved Prophet Mohammed Peace Be Upon Him commanded:
‘Do not break your pledges, do not mutilate dead bodies, and do not kill children’. 2
3.     Although Islam says respect rights of neighbours, however, we sadly note that our Muslim neighbour, contrary to the teaching of Islam and civilised behaviour, has always exploited us, abused us, created problems for us, curbed our fundamental rights; and initiated such policies that aggravated the already bad situation and added to our misery and suffering.

4.     Being strongly of the opinion that all our current problems are related to that unwise and unwarranted attack of 22 October 1947; as it forcibly divided our State and we suffer on the both sides of the divide. Our land became a battleground for competing interests of our mighty neighbours, namely India, Pakistan and China, in which we suffer.

5.     Note with regret that, despite our suffering and a great human and economic loss of Pakistan, Jammu and Kashmir and India, Pakistan has not abandoned its obsession to capture Kashmir by force.

6.     Urge you to reconsider rationale of this policy which is imperialist in nature. If you are a true well-wisher of people of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir, then please stop export of extremism, terrorism, religious intolerance and hatred to areas of Jammu and Kashmir State; and grant fundamental rights to the people which live under your control in so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.

7.      Request you to revisit teaching of Islam with regard to equality and fairness. If still you feel we are not equal to you, citizens of Pakistan, then, at least, consider us human beings and let us live with honour and dignity. Unite both areas of Jammu and Kashmir State; and let us be masters of our land and resources.
We look forward to hearing a positive reply from you.
References:
1.      Holy Quran, Sura Almahida, section 1
2.      Hadees narrated by Hazrat Buraydah in Muslim Shareef and quoted in Islam and sanctity of Human Life, page 9
People from Jammu, Srinagar and various parts of Pakistani Administered Kashmir participated in the demonstration.
Representatives of the following parties signed the memorandum:
Organisation                           Name                                  signature
1/ Kashmir National Party        Abbas Butt
2/ JKLF                                         Nazam Bhatti
3/ UKPNP                                    Zulfqar Khan
4/JKPNP                                      Tahir Bostan
5/Friends of JK                           Ejaz Pracha
6/ Voice of Jammu                  Yogish Sharma

Issued by Dr Shabir Choudhry: drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com

Friday, 21 October 2016

Why is Pakistan letting itself Colonised by China?

Why is Pakistan letting itself Colonised by China?
21 October 2016

International Monetary Fund's latest warning on CPEC has sent ripples in Pakistan's political class. Soon after the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s assessment on CPEC, lawmakers from the upper house of Pakistan expressed fear that the CPEC could turn into another East India Company if the country's interests were not actively protected.
Last year in April, Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled out his most ambitious project China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with the initial investment of 46 billion-dollar. The CPEC investment is one of China's biggest ever outside the country.
Soon after the announcement, Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that the $46 billion CPEC would be a "game-changer" for the country as well as for the entire South Asia region. Sharif's statement underlines the geopolitical significance of this project not only for Pakistan but also for the South Asian giant.
But, the first real assessment by an international financial global organization has raised serious doubts about the long-term impact of the Chinese investment in Pakistani economy. IMF has warned in its latest report that the repayment obligations that come with the investment will be serious for the country.

Moreover, Beijing stands to gain more as the CPEC will essentially make it easier for China to import oil, gas and other resources from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran via the port and an extensive land route in Pakistan.
However, Pakistan has got its own share of problems that will force Nawaz Sharif to walkover the IMF's warning and look forward to the Chinese investment. Here's why: 
Weak Economy
As per the State Bank of Pakistan, country's total foreign debt and liabilities has piled up to Rs 74 trillion, which is a record high in the history of Pakistan. Till 2013, the total debt of the country stood at $61.9 billion, which was the first financial year of Nawaz Sharif's government.
Pakistan badly needs huge foreign investment as the current situation is quite disappointing. The State Bank of Pakistan statistics showed that country's overall foreign private investment (FPI) plunged by 55 per cent to $405.5 million during July-February 2015-16 from $898.3 million in the same period last year.

This drastic decline was due to a massive outflow of $345 million from the equity market during the period. Nawaz Sharif knows that terrorism has severely affected country's prospects of foreign investment. And in such turbulent time, he is in no position to back off from the 46 billion-dollar project which is three times the total FDI Pakistan has got in the last decade.
India's Rise ::
Pakistan's relations with the United States has virtually ebbed over a period of last one decade. And, during the same period India's economy has done fairly well. Last year, India replaced China as the fastest growing major economy in the world.
According to Delhi's Central Statistics Office, India's economic growth is now expected to hit the high of 7.6 per cent in year 2016. India's last year's quarterly growth was in line with expectations at 7.3 per cent which outstripped China's 6.9 per cent.
All troubles aside, India's economic growth could be the most worrying factor. India is one of the biggest purchasers of arms in the world and Pakistan will be deeply worried with its neighbour's military prowess exceeding its own. China also sees partnering with Pakistan as an effective strategy to counter India's rise in the region.
"Much of what we have seen in the strengthened China-Pakistan alignment in the last decade is a reaction to the rise of India. China's move to invest in Pakistan has been purely geopolitical and it's policy has been driven by power political criteria," writes Andrew Small in his book - The China-Pakistan Axis.
Energy Crisis
Pakistan has also been gripped by severe energy crisis for some years with parts of the country facing acute electricity shortage. In most of the places electricity cut goes for up to 20 hours a day. The country has an installed electricity capacity of 22,797 megawatts (MW), but production stands at a dismal 12,000 MW. China has announced $34.4 billion for power projects in Pakistan.
Poverty
What is more serious of all is acute poverty in Pakistan. A little less than half the population of Pakistan comes under poverty line. At least four out of 10 Pakistanis are living in acute poverty with the population of Balochistan faring the worst among the provinces. Pakistan's first-ever official report on multidimensional poverty states that 38.8 per cent of Pakistan's population lives in poverty. A majority of the rural population 54.6 per cent lives in acute poverty.

Monday, 17 October 2016

ISIS leaders look to Pakistan for refuge, By MADHAV NALAPAT

ISIS leaders look to Pakistan for refuge
By MADHAV NALAPAT  15 October, 2016
Several serving and retired Pakistan army officers are in West Asia, training the fighters of ISIS and other like-minded organisations.
More than 300 serving officers of the Pakistan army and over 2,000 retired officers have in the past been, or are in, West Asia, “training fighters of ISIS and other like-minded organisations” in their war against the governments of Iraq and Syria, claim analysts working exclusively on tracking that particular complex of terror organisations. They say that “elements (of the Pakistan army) are taking leave and going under assumed identities to Iraq and Syria to conduct such training”.

In the past, such activities also took place in Jordan, Turkey and Qatar, but over the past year, Amman, Doha and Ankara have become wary of groups of fighters, who, for long, were using their territories for training and recuperation. Training is given “in the handling of communications equipment, interception of signals and the handling of explosives”.

The analysts spoken to claim that “more than money, it is ideological fervour that is motivating such Pakistani volunteers” and that assistance to ISIS is taking place “despite opposition from a few senior officers in the military”, who, however, have so far declined to punish the volunteers (training ISIS, Al Nusra and other such groups) “for fear of sparking a revolt in their ranks, where hundreds of officers and tens of thousands of other ranks are sympathetic to ISIS”. Hence, it has not been a surprise that almost all recent attacks by ISIS-affiliated “lone wolves” have had a Pakistan connection. An example is the recent terror attack in New York and New Jersey during the week after the anniversary of 9/11.

Oddly, the United Nations Security Council has yet to take up and get implemented India’s two decades-old proposal for a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism, although it is hoped that Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi will be able to get the UN leadership to agree to ratify this essential legal move in the battle against terror. 

Despite efforts by the Barack Obama administration and its regional allies to slow down the Syria-Iran-Russia advance against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the takeover of Aleppo by the troika is calculated to take place by mid-November. Alarmed at the advance of the Iraqi army and the irregulars backing its thrust into Mosul, President Recip Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is “seeking a Jarabalus” in Mosul. In that Syrian town, ISIS fighters switched their label to become “moderate opposition fighters” and are now protected by the Turkish army. In that garb, they expect to recuperate from recent losses and get back into the battlefield against the US and its European allies, the way the Taliban did in Afghanistan just two years after getting rescued by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) wing of the Pakistan army in Kunduz and other locations in 2001. Over the past five months, and now in his final days in office, President Obama has once again handed over the keys of foreign policy to Hillary Clinton, who through Secretary of State John Kerry is following a policy of seeing the Damascus-Moscow-Tehran combination as a bigger immediate threat to US than ISIS and other jihadi groups operating in the region. This is despite the spread of these organisations into Europe and North America. Preparatory to a US military challenge to Moscow and Tehran in Syria, following an expected victory by the Democratic Party nominee in the 8 November 2016 Presidential elections, a demonisation of Russia and of Vladimir Putin has begun through the media. The expectation is that as President, Hillary Clinton will be able to get even a Republican-controlled House of Representatives as well as the US Senate on her side, should there be actual combat on a limited scale between the US and Russian militaries in a regional theatre that has witnessed bloodshed on a scale not seen since the Vietnam War. Such a conflict between Russia and the US could escalate in such a manner as to provide an escape hatch for elements of the ISIS leadership, which is facing the loss of territorial outposts in Iraq and Syria because of Iran, Syria, Iraq and Russia together with a strong and largely separate showing by the Kurds, despite the relative lack of assistance given to these fighters by the Obama administration, which is very respectful of the views of Doha, Riyadh and Ankara in such matters. 

However, those tracking the activities of ISIS in Iraq and Syria say that the organisation is still nervous of a “November Upset” in the US elections that would bring Donald J. Trump into the White House. The Republican Party nominee has publicly endorsed a strategy of going along with Iran and Syria to battle ISIS. Taking a view from history, those such as John Kerry who see the troika fighting ISIS as the primary foe, may be compared to British and French leaders in the 1930s who saw Adolf Hitler as a lesser evil than Joseph Stalin, while Trump may be compared to President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who from the start of his tenure in office saw Hitler as the main foe and was willing to ally with (and assist) Moscow in its battle against Nazified Berlin. Contrary to the views expressed in US media, it is Trump and not Clinton that ISIS and Al Nusra fear, given the Republican nominee’s persistence in placing ISIS at the core of US security threats, rather than Moscow and Tehran, the way the Clinton team does. Trump has also distanced himself from the soft line of both the Bush and Obama administrations on Pakistan, with “action” thus far against that country’s terror factories being largely limited to words designed to soothe policymakers in Delhi and excite the media in India into reporting that Washington has finally “gone against” Islamabad.

Washington’s longstanding softness towards Pakistan is despite the fact that numerous terror groups are based in Pakistan and have the protection of the Pakistan army. These include Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Tehreek-e-Jafferia, Al Qaeda, Siphah-e-Sahaba, Al Badr, Harkat-ul-Ansar, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi and the Jamaat Al Fuqra. National Security Advisor of Pakistan, Sartaz Aziz has himself admitted that terrorists (mainly from Afghanistan) “by 2007-08 had covered most of the tribal areas. They killed the tribal leaders, then they started establishing their communications networks, IED factories, suicide training centres.” According to Aziz, during the past 15 years, Pakistan has lost more than $100 billion as well as the lives of over 10,000 security personnel. However, the fact is that not just the civilian leadership of Pakistan but the military as well, which is unable to act against such activities in an all out manner, because of the fact that since 1979, “mujahids” were openly trained in Pakistan for the Afghanistan and later the India theatre. From 1989 onwards, the cadre which later became known as the Taliban, began to get trained by the ISI in camps in Pakistan, mainly in the North West Frontier Province as well as in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

Given the toxicity associated with ISIS, in a (for that organisation) worst case scenario for it, such as the wresting from it of Mosul, Aleppo and afterwards Raqa, it is likely that a “Turkish solution” will be found for its dilemma, in that much of its cadre would, for the record, switch their allegiance to the so-called “moderate fighting forces” that in reality are (besides the Kurds) little other than ISIS and Al Nusra elements in disguise. Analysts warn than elements in the Pakistan army, who subscribe to the ideology of ISIS, are “busy locating places in Pakistan that can be used to shelter leadership elements of ISIS”, the way Osama bin Laden was protected by the military in Pakistan since his escape from Afghanistan after 9/11 and his execution by US SEALS in 2011. “Already about 26 leadership elements of ISIS have been identified and steps are under way to get them to Pakistan through the Afghan border”, an analyst revealed, warning that India needs to “prepare for this new threat, as it is certain that the Pakistan military will make operations against India the condition for sheltering elements of the ISIS leadership” in Pakistan.