Friday, 13 January 2017

Survival in the Jungle, By Babar Sattar

Survival in the Jungle, By Babar Sattar
January 14, 2017       The News

What is common in social media activists being abducted and then attacked in absentia for being unpatriotic and anti-Islam and the government’s bull-headed belief that military courts are a great innovation that must be preserved? The message that Pakistan’s allegiance to rule of law and our right to liberty are contingent upon the whims of powerful individuals and institutions who claim exclusive right to determine the state’s narrative.

Rule of law is the idea that no one in a polity is omnipotent and that citizens are to be governed in accordance with declared laws and not arbitrary impulses of individuals and institutions running the state in the name of citizens. Implicit in this is the notion that state officials have limited powers that are subject to checks and balances to prevent their abuse. The constitution is the contract between the citizen and the state, and through it citizens delegate their collective power to state officials to exercise it within limits prescribed by law.
Whether it is imposition of martial law or enforced disappearances (the polite name for abduction of citizens), both are motivated by an amorphous definition of national security and national interest. And the underlying sense of entitlement is also the same ie that some institutions are holy cows and folks within them ought not to be questioned when they claim to act in the larger national interest, even when their actions flagrantly breach the constitution and the fundamental rights of citizens that it seeks to guarantee.
As the missing persons’ phenomenon snowballed we were told that it is born out of necessity. Vile enemies of Pakistan are getting away with terror and treason because our courts are timid and our legal regime doesn’t authorise agencies to collect intelligence or recognise evidence gathered by them. That intelligence and law-enforcement agencies (and the army acting in aid of civil power) wish to work within the criminal justice system but the system needs tweaking to adjust to the ‘ground realities’ so that our enemies can be apprehended and punished.
After much mulling our civil and military institutions came to the precious conclusion that adulterating our legal regime to eliminate as much as possible the distinction between the accused and the guilty was the way to go. As a consequence, the Actions (in Aid of Civil Power) Regulations for Fata and Pata was born, and subsequently we saw the Anti-Terror Act, Fair Trial Act and Protection of Pakistan Act (now lapsed). With these instruments the state created all possible flexibility within the law to allow its functionaries to act on their whims.
This was the learning-to-work-within-the-criminal-justice-system phase of our recent history. It was brief. While it was evolving, the tools to deal with ‘ground realities’ didn’t exist. As national interest couldn’t be jeopardised, so people kept going missing. Just when we thought we had finally empowered our institutions and agencies to catch our enemies and have them punished within the confines of the law, APS happened. In that state of shock and anger we were told that this criminal justice business doesn’t work. In wartime we need military courts.
In the two years that military courts were functioning and handing out death sentences, we didn’t get a sense that terrorists were now so scared of being hanged that they were refusing to blow themselves up. But more importantly, despite all power vested in intelligence and law-enforcement agencies by the new and revised laws, and the absolute power vested in military courts, people still kept going missing. What explains this conundrum? Was the original diagnosis wrong? Was it never about inadequate laws?
What is the real appeal of military courts? That they are effective and efficient? That military officers working as judges and prosecutors are not exposed and so not afraid? That cases are decided on time and the decisions are executed on time? Forget the structural problems with these courts with the military acting as police, investigator, judge and executioner. Does anyone know what kind of evidence is presented that leads to convictions? Are any witnesses presented? Are they cross-examined? Are the accused advised and defended by counsel?
The real appeal of military courts is that they don’t have to give reasons for what they do. The trials are not public and the rulings are not subject to scrutiny. No one hears the stories of the accused or why they did what they did. The decisions lead to no debate about right or wrong or whether these courts are striking the right balance between safety and efficiency while awarding death to citizens. They allow everyone not to address thorny moral and policy issues: undisturbed sources of extremism within society that support the supply-chain of terror.
While military courts are wrapped in a shroud of legality, being creatures of law, the arguments in favour of these courts and those in defence of abductions (presenting them as a necessity) are very similar. Both sets of arguments stem from the belief that the fundamental rights of citizens are not inalienable and can be disregarded in the face of challenges such as the terror we are confronted with. Both are rooted in a moral code that justifies usurping the right to life and liberty of a citizen declared to be anti-state without due process in the ‘larger public interest’.
Both rely on the assumption that the state functionaries who are making life and death decisions about fellow citizens in the name of the state are endowed with divine attributes and need not be subjected to any checks and balances while they play God. Both are backed by the firm conviction that human liberty is not a fundamental right, but an entitlement or luxury that can be taken away if you say or do something that pushes you to the wrong side of incumbent state officials who believe themselves to be the state.
In the jungle there is no legal or moral code. The rule is: ‘survival of the fittest’. And to survive you make the right alliances and try not to fall on the wrong side of anyone more powerful. You don’t take unnecessary chances and risks and you don’t fight others’ fights to establish principles. How does an animal know whom to fight and whom not to in a jungle? Recognition of the pecking order is part of socialisation. And if you don’t respect the order, you become the example that helps the socialisation of others.
We are not a rule of law society. We are living in the jungle and have made our peace with it. Salman Haider wasn’t a household name last week. Most of us hadn’t heard of the other social media activists now missing. But we know about them now as examples we don’t want to be. We don’t know what they did, but we know they probably did something to upset those who determine what is in our interest as a nation and what isn’t. As our national interest monitors can’t falter, many are already attacking the abductees without any knowledge of the underlying facts.
What message has the abduction of social media activists sent, other than reinforcing the pecking order? Those of us who thought we could think and express ourselves freely within the digital world from the privacy of our homes were wrong. This was a public service announcement that the digital world is part of the jungle too. So don’t be a rabble-rouser on social media. The state retains monopoly over narratives and if social media is the new forum where narratives are being shaped, it will be controlled no less ruthlessly than other forums.
The abductions look like coercion for now. But they will lead to a conformist consensus in favour of keeping freedom of expression and dissent under self-censorship even on social media. Who says that isn’t essential service to the larger national interest?
The writer is a lawyer based in Islamabad.


The Tayyabas of Pakistan, by Anees Jillani

January 13, 2017 The News

Our society has suddenly discovered Tayyaba, a ten-year-old girl who was brutally tortured by the wife of an additional sessions and district judge of Islamabad. It is uncertain how many times she was tortured and for what reason.
It is easier to explain why she was tortured: Tayyaba is poor and it is the right of everybody who is anybody to make people like her suffer. Of course, nothing happens to the tormentors.
Is this the first time that such an incident has taken place in Pakistan? Thousands of child domestic workers are beaten every day in our households, and millions of children work while we hardly give a second thought to them. Many of them have been tortured to death by their employers but not a single tormentor has been prosecuted, let alone punished for committing the offence.
The Tayyabas of Pakistan deserve better. Millions of households all over the country are employing children under the age of 18. Aren’t such employers guilty of the same crime even though many of them continue to justify their actions on grounds of helping the poor child?
Child labour is generally permissible in the country due to big loopholes in the relevant legislations. The employment of children between the ages of 14 to 18 is allowed in all sectors, whether formal or informal. There are a few areas within the formal sector that prohibit children under the age of 14 from working. In a other sectors, child labour is legally permissible with certain restrictions. Other matters, such as domestic child labour, agricultural labour, and the problem of self-employed children, remain completely unregulated.
The media has thankfully picked up on the Tayyaba case, as it has done with similar cases in the past. It will hopefully continue to focus on the issue until something positive comes out of this tragedy. A section of the civil society has also been galvanised. The chief justice of the Supreme Court has taken notice of the matter. One only hopes that something good will come out of the attention that Tayyaba’s case has received. 
It has repeatedly been pointed out to both the federal and provincial governments that the scope of child labour laws needs to be urgently broadened and the big gaps in legislation need to be plugged. All kinds of projects dealing with domestic child labour have been launched and reports based on surveys prepared. All these initiatives are now gathering dust.
The child labourers of this country do not need more of these projects. What we desire and need is action on the part of the federal and provincial governments.
Ideally, Pakistan should have a law governing not just domestic child labour, but domestic labour in general. This is the most neglected field as those employed in people’s households are secluded and do not exist as a group. As a result, they are difficult to approach and cannot be accounted for. They perform domestic chores – including cooking, looking after children and running errands – earn meagre salaries and work totally unregulated hours with no weekly days off.
Quite a few domestic workers, particularly children, live in deplorable conditions. They are the invisible workforce of Pakistan and it is time that a national law or – if the political will is lacking – at least provincial laws, should be enacted within this year.
Pakistan’s constitution only prohibits child labour below the age of 14 years in factories, mines, or various forms of hazardous employment. The term ‘hazardous employment’ remains undefined but we can argue that child domestic work falls into this category. Additionally, the Factories Act 1934 prohibits children under the age of 14 from seeking employment in factories. Similarly, the Mines Act 1923 and the Shops and Establishments Ordinance 1969 prohibit children under 14 from being employed in mines and in offices and restaurants, respectively.
The Employment of Children Act 1991 has a schedule with two parts that lists 38 sectors where the employment of children under the age of 14 is prohibited. Domestic child labour can easily be added by the federal and provincial governments to this schedule to make it outlawed. The contravention of this ban in the 1991 act is punishable with a prison sentence that extends up to one year or a fine of up to Rs20,000, or with both.
It is about time that all the concerned authorities and relevant stakeholders – including employers, parents, children and the media – realise that a child who is employed represents a future that is destroyed. Poverty may be the major cause of child labour but poverty is also caused by child labour.
A child who fails to go to school will end up working menial jobs without learning any major skills all his life and will consequently remain poor. The vicious cycle of poverty will thus be persist. State intervention is required to break this cycle. The sooner we do this, the more Tayyabas we will be able to save.
The writer is an advocate of the 
Supreme Court.



Thursday, 12 January 2017

Why minorities suffer in Pakistan? Kaleem Dean

Why minorities suffer in Pakistan? Kaleem Dean

The minorities population in Pakistan was once believed to be 23% of the total participation, now ‘scaled-down’ to paltry 3% ‘fun-sized’ enumeration. The latest census of 1998 tabulated on de jure basis estimated 2.3 million people belonging to ethnic minorities with Hindus 1.20% and Christians 1.09% presence in the country. 130 million recorded population in 1998 census now has reached to 194 million. But, ironically, minorities’ population is showing a static figure of 3%.
Ishtiaq Ahmed, a Pakistani origin, Swedish Political Scientist wrote in his book in 2011,” Some independent studies, however, suggest that the non-Muslims population of Pakistan is nearly 10 per cent and Hindus, Christians, and Ahmadis make up four million each. It is generally noted that while majorities play down minority figures, the minorities inflate them.” How that all happened, looks weird but something happened that lead Pakistani minorities to a total social dissatisfaction.
The founding father had the vision to cater for minorities equally and justly. But right after independence, discrimination against minorities started when ethnic minorities were deprived of their property and housing rights in Punjab, the cluster of ethnic minorities. The disbanded minorities were shoved to take refuge in remote rural and slums of the country. Most of the Christian minority settled alongside the sewerage canals in their make-shifting turned perpetual dwellings. Because of social hatred, poor communities were offered ‘sweepers’ jobs only and they were bound to accept to feed their tummies. Before partition especially the Christian missionaries had established a network of educational and health institutions which even continued after 1947. Pakistani missionaries before 1971 worked to uplift their communities. However, the nationalization of all educational institutions in 1972 demoralized minorities, to their dismay, many left the country forever. The inclusion of hardness of blasphemy laws in the constitution of Pakistan in 1985 is another factor minorities started feeling vulnerable in the country.
The massive abuse of the law is still continuing and without exaggeration, this is in the complete understanding of the international community that discriminatory laws are used against ethnic minorities. Keeping minorities away from the electoral politics is still another issue that kept minorities at stake. By and large, state and non-state actors were involved in minorities squash. The Governments, the Church Administrations, and minorities’ political elite have to quickly revise their positions to enable ethnic minorities’ successful, positive, practical, social, ethical and political participation. Importantly, this cannot be achieved without active coordination between the government and minorities institutions. Regardless of their small counting in the population, minorities are a dominant indicator to gauge country’s scale of equality, justice, and fairness of treating all, irrespective of their religion. As per recent reports, minorities vote bank has reached to 3 million. Will it be wise to ignore this fiddling human section albeit nickel-and-dime? How could poor communities be uplifted?
Firstly, the Church could play a lead role in community development. Theologically, Church is responsible for the holistic development of the congregations. This has been observed that the evangelical side has superseded the ecumenical side, an aspect of Church ministry, directly related to the physical wellbeing of the community. Prayers and action are ‘a twin package’, the easiest has been chosen ignoring the practical manifestation of the faith. All over the world, Church along with worship and prayer services establishes projects for community development like women empowerment projects, old homes, free education for needy and poor, scholarships for bright individuals, Coffee morning’s etc etc. Church in Pakistan lacks such realities which are equally important like other regular religious sacraments.
Christian educational institutions are still believed to be one of among the best schools, all commercial, not ready to accept poor children from minorities. If every single good quality educational Christian institute enrolls 20 fully sponsored children in schools, things will be changed in years. Secondly, there are hundreds of Christian Non-Governmental Organizations claiming millions of dollars every year, they too, need to re-shape their vision to support marginalized communities for which they acquire international funding.
Thirdly, the Curriculum development bodies never paid attention towards the ‘books content’ being taught in schools. From time to time reports are published highlighting the issues of controversial material found in schools books. Concerns of the national and international community are not taken into account. School grooming is something that shapes one’s future personality. Intentionally or unintentionally, such content is included in school books that undermine all other religions except Islam, the result of which comes out in the shape of hatred, social discrimination, fundamentalism, extremism, and persecution.
Fourthly, because of the political instability, governments show no or little concern towards minorities’ development. Minority ‘selected’ members of the federal and provincial assemblies are relied upon for catering demands, however, as they are not ‘elected’ through a proper electoral system, most of the time, unable or unwilling to respond to their respective sections they represent in legislative assemblies, instead, bound to follow the policy framework of their ‘master political parties’. This year a new addition of ‘Christmas Train’ was another ‘so called clinching effort’ to gain national and international praise, though appreciated but people need something else, concrete and meaningful.
Because of political allegiance to different political parties, the small percentage of ethnic minorities has been chopped up further leaving no chance of their unity. Will it continue or is there any way out to resolve this confusing situation? A Little effort will bear positive results. Sindh is the home of 3 million Hindus struggling for their rights for the last seven decades. For the first time in the history, Hindu Marriage Act was passed by the Sindh Government, indeed a praiseworthy decision. Before this act, it was impossible for Hindu women to prove their marriages and inheritance rights. The community was total disaster always looking to flee the country.
The majority of Christian minority lives in the Punjab province settled in slums and rural Punjab. Massive organized attacks were made against Christian minorities like Gojra, Joseph Colony, Iqbal Park bombing and Youhannabad massacres. Blasphemy laws are frequently used against Christians in Punjab. KPK is believed to be the home of the Sikh community, where they suffer the most compelled to find refuge in other parts of the country or the world. For bringing solutions to minorities issues, the Federal and Provincial governments are main players. The first resolve could be a fresh legislation to curb the misuse of blasphemy laws. Introducing legislation for a balanced curriculum development free from social and religious hatred is the need of the hour. An honest based effort to count the real number of minorities in 2017 National Census is vital for political participation. The electoral reforms for the independent and direct system of election for minorities are urgently required. The Church is another main stakeholder. If the Church and Para Church starts working on establishing a network small projects for community development and free education system for the most deserving children it will give impetus to the efforts planned by the government. The NGO sector could be more effective if follow the maxim that honesty is the best policy.
The writer is a freelance columnist, can be contacted at kaleem.dean@mail.com


Monday, 9 January 2017

Declassified - How India Tracked Pakistan’s Development of a Nuclear Device

Declassified - How India Tracked Pakistan’s Development of a Nuclear Device
Newly declassified documents reveal how New Delhi tracked Islamabad’s pursuit of a nuclear device.
By Vivek Prahladan    January 06, 2017

Today, South Asia’s fragile nuclear peace risks insolvency, with both India and Pakistan armed with expansive nuclear arsenals. Moreover, given their mutual rivalry, the prospect of limited nuclear exchange continues to loom large in the region. India’s deterrent strategy accounts for a two-front nuclear exchange with both China and Pakistan. How Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine merges into its strategic identity remains an open question. When Kenneth Waltz wrote of the “spread of nuclear weapons rather than their “proliferation” in 1981, Pakistan was yet to count itself among nuclear weapon states.

Making deterrence work amid nation-state rivalry counts on the ability of the respective intelligence communities of nuclear states to constantly attenuate uncertainty about their rival’s present as well as prospective nuclear arsenal and doctrine. Today, both India and Pakistan continue to deploy considerable intelligence resources to track the other’s nuclear arsenal.
India, for instance, has taken a keen interest in Pakistan’s pursuit of a nuclear device going back to the 1970s and even earlier. Based on newly declassified Indian documentation I was able to access, what follows is an account of what Indian external intelligence knew about Pakistan’s intentions between the 1970s leading up to the 1990s – the decade that would end with both countries coming out as the world’s sixth and seventh declared nuclear powers.
For Indian intelligence in the 1970s, the focus in Pakistan was about its reprocessing capacity and centrifuges. This shifted in the 1980s to focus on the capability to produce an explosive device, and, finally, in the 1990s, focused on the nascent Pakistani missile program routed through China, which was eventually outsourced by China to North Korea.
Soon after the 1998 tests by both countries, Indian intelligence was looking at supply chains for Pakistan’s Shaheen-II ballistic missile, almost four years ahead of its first test in 2004.There was already specific knowledge available with India on Shaheen-I, including on the hardware that was involved in steering the missile. Additionally, New Delhi was not entirely convinced that Pakistan would not use choose to use non-nuclear chemical warheads for its missiles
The trail of documents begins with a Joint Intelligence Committee Report (dated February 24, 1976) titled “Pakistan’s Capability to Produce Nuclear Weapons.” This paper was an update to a JIC Paper from March 1975. It assessed that in absence of assistance for plutonium-239 or uranium-235, “Pakistan could not be in a position to explode a nuclear device at least for four years from now.” Further, the report noted that all was not well with Karachi Nuclear Power Plant. It had developed faults due to “leakage in boiler flow down valve which resulted in reactor poisoning.” It was shut down six times in 1975 with the largest one in mid-1975 when Canadian experts were recruited to repair the leakage of heavy water from the heat exchanger.
Moreover, in 1976, diplomatic cables from the Indian Embassy in Ottawa reveal that India was becoming aware of Chinese scientists’ presence in Pakistan. A Hungarian diplomat informed an Indian diplomat in Ottawa that the Canadian government was aware that Chinese scientists were being given access to facilities with Canadian material in Pakistan, despite the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP-I) coming under IAEA safeguards.
Pakistan was also sharing Canadian technical knowledge with the Chinese in return for military supplies. Henry Kissinger, then-U.S. secretary of state, had visited Pakistan in 1976, where he was attempting to forge Afghan-Pakistan rapprochement following the visit of Prime Minister Bhutto to Kabul. Kissinger’s secondary agenda was to probe the France-Pakistan nuclear agreement. According to briefings received by Indian officials in Washington, Kissinger and Bhutto agreed that on the nuclear issue, “both sides will avoid confrontation.”
By September 1977, India’s external intelligence Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) had begun to report on Pakistan’s plans in detail, issuing a report called “Pakistan — Clandestine Purchase of Nuclear Equipment and Materials.” Pakistan’s Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) had set up a purchasing channel in Bonn, Germany, and Abdul Waheed, a cousin of General Zia-ul-Haq, oversaw the funds for these clandestine contracts. $11 million was already spent by Pakistan in Western Europe on plutonium technology, including the purchase of a “shearer” for use in its reprocessing facility.
The Pakistan explosive device program was coming together and, in 1981, a “Monthly Report” from the Indian Embassy in Islamabad warned New Delhi that “it is very likely that Pakistan will succeed in exploding a nuclear device, possibly this year.” The embassy also informed that “Zia was extremely keen to explode the nuclear device at the earliest possible.”
In the same year, J. N Dixit, who would go on to become India’s national security advisor (2004-2005), circulated a report entitled “Pakistan race to Nuclear Weapons” to all heads of missions. The note concluded that the question of whether “Pakistan has indeed embarked on a nuclear weapons program” could be answered affirmatively. Dixit assessed that “Kahuta, Islamabad, and Sihala form a sort of protected centrifuge triangle.” Kahuta was protected with Crotale surface-to-air missile systems. Pakistan had also gained the capacity to produce uranium hexafluoride.
India anticipated that Pakistan could conduct an atmospheric or underground test in Sindh, Balochistan, or the Northwest Frontier Province (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa today). Meanwhile, Soviet satellites had revealed information on Pakistani tunneling in the Ras Koh range. Alternately, the Indians anticipated that China could have hosted the first Pakistani test at Lop Nor. As one former official in the office of then-Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi told me:
…we were following AQ Khan’s movements. A deliberate subterfuge has been created by Pakistan that AQ Khan was running a rogue operation, so called “nuclear Walmart.” A.Q Khan was leading inter-governmental delegations. We knew where he went, whom he talked to i.e. each of his visits to North Korea and then his debriefings in China.
A 1981 brief prepared by the Indian Embassy in Washington also revealed Indian anxieties at U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s upgrading of U.S.-Pakistan relations, fortified by a $3 billion military aid package that included F-16 fighters and airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft. In Zia’s talks with members of the U.S. Congress, “the nuclear question figured prominently,” the brief noted. In this year, Secretary East Eric Gonsalves had led an Indian delegation to Canada wherein India pointed out the Libyan connection to the Pakistan nuclear program. Indian information was that “Pakistan could have a plutonium-based explosion by the end of the year and have enriched uranium by 1983.”
U.S. officials meanwhile assured India that Reagan had conveyed to Zia “quite clearly that Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would damage the entire new relationship worked out between the two countries.” Zia had publicly mentioned his proposal for a mutual inspection of nuclear facilities between India and Pakistan. Lawrence Eagleburger, Reagan’s undersecretary of state for political affairs, told Indian officials that “the [U.S.] administration found credibility in Zia’s nuclear disavowal,” but the Indians remained unconvinced.
In conclusion, Indian cold war era intelligence document reveal that Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program has thrived even in an environment of internal and regional uncertainties. Its leadership has historically fielded questionable nuclear peace proposals as a prelude to nuclear escalation. Speculative nuclear brinkmanship remains perhaps the last remaining viable argument available to the Pakistan government and military to influence new patterns of equilibrium taking place in the subcontinental region. The Cold War continuum suggests that China’s dominant voicing within Pakistan’s securitization will fasten Pakistan’s deterrence operationalization and will to re-demonstrate capability. Undoubtedly, Pakistan continues to view itself as the nuclear sword-bearer among the Islamic nation-states.
Dr. Vivek Prahladan is Visiting Researcher at Keio University in Japan. Further archival documentation and oral accounts on Indian nuclear history can be found in the author’s book, The Nation Declassified: India and the Cold War World (Har-Anand, India, 2017).


Wednesday, 4 January 2017

CPEC and Dollars are more important than Interest of Muslims, Dr Shabir Choudhry

CPEC and Dollars are more important than Interest of Muslims

Dr Shabir Choudhry            05 January 2017

As long as CPEC related projects are not completed and dollars are coming in, Pakistani government, Pakistani people and even the religious parties can ignore anti Muslim policies of China. To these people regular flow of dollars, whether from Washington or Beijing, is more important than to speak about anti Muslim policies. Anyone who dares to draw attention of the Pakistani elite towards wrong policies is surely asking for trouble, especially if that person is a nationalist from Jammu and Kashmir.

I know many people won’t like it, but bitter fact is Pakistan sided with Britain and France when they attacked Suez Canal, Egypt, a Muslim country in 1956. Siding with a poor Muslim country, Egypt could not bring dollars, so Pakistan sided with the aggressors because America wanted that. Also this diplomatic blunder was to bring dollars and pounds to Pakistan; and for dollars and pounds the Pakistani elite can sell Pakistani men and women and even sell the national pride.

Similarly when dollars were coming – in, the Pakistani ruling elite helped America and provided all sorts of logistic support, including airports, unchecked entry and exit to Pakistan and bases from where drones could fly that America could easily kill Muslims in Afghanistan and in certain parts of Pakistan.                          

Ironically, on one hand Pakistan was apparently on the side of those who were fighting terrorism; and on the other hand Pakistani agencies were helping those who were considered as terrorists by America and the world community. Idea was to keep the Afghan pot boiling and bleed America, just like they were bleeding India in Kashmir. If America had won in Afghanistan, and had eliminated all the opposition there was no need for Pakistan’s support and that would have stopped flow of dollars.

Americans may think they are smart, but Pakistani elite out manoeuvred them and it took them many years to understand duplicity of the Pakistani elite. One Pakistani commentator said: Musharaf was apparently playing a double game after 9/11, supporting the United States and the Taliban at the same time.

China’s anti Muslim campaign

‘We demolished nearly 70 percent of mosques in the city’, claimed a Chinese official.
News flashed during last Ramadan that Muslims in China were not allowed to observe Ramadan as it affected their performance at work. To the Chinese officials economic production is more important than religious sentiments of Muslims. Not a single voice was heard from Pakistan against this because Pakistanis know it is not wise to bite the hand that feeds. Religious parties also thought it was prudent to remain quiet.
The latest information coming out of China is more disturbing.  According to a report compiled by RFA’s Uyghur Services, The Chinese government has destroyed thousands of mosques over the past three months in the restive Xinjiang region in Beijing’s latest attempt to “rectify” the largely Muslim population there’.
The Chinese government officials refused to reveal how many mosques were demolished, however, RFA’s Uyghur Service claim that around 5,000 mosques were destroyed over the three months of the campaign’. 1
China is doing all this under the “Mosque Rectification” campaign which was launched by the Chinese Central Ethnic-Religious Affairs Department and managed by the local police. A local policeman Eysajan Yaqup said:
“Convincing the people that one of the purposes for demolishing the mosques was for the safety of the worshipers was a bit difficult....Some of them laughed at us when we explained the purpose, and some of them stared at us to show their disagreement.” Eysajan Yaqup said he and other officials ignored the laughter and the stares and “most of the prayers were silenced... “We successfully completed our duty within three months”. 2

Beijing blames Uyghur extremists, who were at one time getting support from Jihadi groups of Pakistan, for a string of violent attacks and clashes in recent years. However, ‘critics say the government has exaggerated the threat from the Uyghurs, and that repressive domestic policies are responsible for violence that has left hundreds dead since 2009’. 3

China is determined to crack down on all religious activists, and for this purpose they have employed an army of religious affairs officials who strictly impose limits on all forms of religious worship, and ‘crack down on faith-based activities that haven't submitted to government regulation’. For this purpose they regularly conduct night time police raids on Muslim households in Uyghur, impose strict restrictions on ‘Islamic practices, and curbs on the culture and language of the Uyghur people, including clothing and personal appearance’.

One critic of the Chinese campaign said, “First the authorities jailed all the young men who could oppose such a policy with the strike-hard campaign that started May 2014, then the authorities implemented new rules to punish rumour spreaders and now this campaign to demolish mosques”. 4

Pakistani government and religious parties are tight lipped about what is happening to Muslims in China. However, they all become fully active once they know that Muslims in India are not allowed to eat cow meat, and some people are tortured or killed. They present these incidents as if future of Islamic faith rests on eating cow meat, which is forbidden to eat in India because of Hindu religious reasons.

CPEC, corruption and Pakistan economy

While chairing high level meeting, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said, ‘CPEC is a cornerstone of Islamabad’s own quest for regional connectivity and shared prosperity’. The meeting evaluated various policy options related to different challenges Pakistan is facing, especially with regard to foreign relations and internal and external security threats.
Nawaz Sharif elaborated his policy preferences by saying:
“Peaceful coexistence, mutual respect and economically integrated region must be our shared objective and we must strive for realizing this objective. This could be possible only when we demonstrate a commitment to our aspirations of peace, progress and prosperity”. 5

One can commend sentiments of Nawaz Sharif, but does he really think the real rulers of Pakistan will allow him to pursue the above policies. He nearly lost his job for the third time just because he wanted to implement certain policies which were detested by them. Peace and stability in the region doesn’t suit people with vested interests in Pakistan.

Anyhow, when money is coming – in, the money receivers in Pakistan do not care about the interest rate and other attached conditions with the loan. For them it is sufficient that money has come for development projects which will provide opportunities to siphon off some of the money. Aasim Sajjad Akhtar, wrote: ‘Development is theoretically compromised by corrupt practices....Both corruption and developments go hand in hand’.6

Happiness and satisfaction is everywhere in the concerned quarters that China will provide extra Rs107.76 billion as soft loan for the three new projects on the Western route which many felt was neglected. Details of these projects are as follows:

·        280-kilometers road from Raikot to Thakot at a cost of Rs 8illion;

·         210 kilometres dual carriageway from Yarik to Zhob at cost of Rs 80bn; and

·        110 kilometres road from Basima to Khuzdar Rs19.76 bn.


Apart from those who hope to make some money out of these projects, those who complained that the government was not serious about the Western route should also be happy that their areas were not neglected. Interestingly this takes the cost of CPEC related road projects to Rs1.025 trillion so far. 7
These projects are expected to complete by 2020, but the ‘monthly instalment will start from next month (January 2017). My suggestion would be, first complete the current project, then once this is giving a return go for a new loan’. 8
Atif, a Pakistani critic of the CPEC asks rationale of all this:
‘China is financing roads for his own need, same goes for that 45 billion. What matters is that are we going to get any benefit in form of royalty or just be happy with the thought that we will have 2-3 good roads with Chinese trucks. I was wondering have we evaluated that environment affect due to increase of traffic. I would be more happy if china finance tree plantation as well on massive scale.’ 9
Khurram Hussain is an investigative journalist who has pointed out numerous hidden costs in the CPEC which the authorities deliberately want to ignore. Providing security to the CPEC related activities will not be an easy task; and its costs could very easily be in ‘excess of Rs100 billion per year’. Apart from that CPEC related loans payment per annum is ‘projected to be more than $3.5bn’.10

Pakistan government’s debt servicing liability for the period July 2016 to September 2016 was Rs 413 billion; and net revenue receipt for the same period was Rs 369 billion. 11

So one can see Pakistan doesn’t have sufficient income even to pay back the existing loans. One wonders how Pakistan will repay when the CPEC related loan instalments also begin. People need to think failure to pay the loan will result in what? What Pakistan will give to China to settle this huge loan?

This disparity in income and debt servicing indicate very serious questions. Does it mean Pakistan will have to borrow money for defence related expenses? Does it mean they will have to borrow to cover pensions – both civil and military? The federal government must borrow to cover the expenses of running the civil government. The federal government must borrow to cover public order and safety affairs. The federal government must borrow to cover environment protection. The federal government must borrow to cover health affairs. The federal government must borrow to cover the expenses on ‘culture and religion’. The federal government must borrow to cover all allocations for social protection’. 12

Pakistan’s debt liabilities were Rs16 trillion in June 2013; and now in the fourth quarter of 2016 this stands at Rs 22 trillion. In the last three years the government has taken out additional loan of $61 billion. What that means is every person in Pakistan has debt of Rs 115,000. This debt per capita was Rs 80,000 in 2013. At the end of 2016, Pakistan’s debt liabilities were Rs 22.4 trillion; and it was Rs 19.8 trillion in 2015. People have a right to know where these billions of money are being spent. 13
Around 50% of Pakistan revenue goes to debt servicing, which stands at Rs1.36 trillion. According to economist Farrukh Saleem, if debt continues ‘to grow at the current rate, Pakistan would be indebted to the tune of Rs 28 trillion or an equivalent of $280 billion’. He further says, ‘we are in a debt-trap whereby we must borrow more just to pay off the debt that falls due. We are also in a growth-trap whereby the GDP is unable to grow beyond four or five percent a year’. 14
This is the situation of Pakistan’s economy and debt servicing without the loans of the CPEC related projects. Farrukh Saleem asserts that ‘We are now preparing to add an additional $46 billion worth of debt and liabilities in the form of projects under the CPEC. For Pakistan, this rate of debt accumulation is not sustainable...Continuing on the current path would mean enabling our debtors to control every aspect of Pakistani life. Remember, “Creditors have better memories than debtors”. 15
Conclusion
Pakistani exports are going down, and when CPEC becomes operational the Chinese goods will flood the Pakistani markets which will seriously hit the Pakistani products. Pakistani exports for the period July 2016 to November 2016 were $8.7 billion; and imports for the same period were $17.3 billion. One can see Pakistan’s trade deficit for these months is a colossal $8.6 billion.
The above facts do not paint a rosy picture of Pakistan’s economy, which must be strong enough to meet challenges of the CPEC projects, and inherent responsibilities. Many thinking Pakistanis are seriously worried about lack of concern of the authorities on deteriorating economy of Pakistan.
It is bitter fact that the Pakistani establishment can do anything to protect and advance their interests or interests of their class; and there is a long history to support this view. In the past, policies were enacted by keeping pleasure or displeasure of Washington in mind. Over the past decades pleasure of Saudi Arabia and China gets great importance.
In 1963 Pakistan gifted around 2,000 Sq miles of Jammu and Kashmir territory from Gilgit Baltistan to China to win friendship of China and to strengthen bilateral relationship.
After the 1965 war, both India and Pakistan returned to pre war positions on the international border and on the Cease Fire Line. However, this position changed after the 1971 war. In 1972 – Simla Agreement, in order to get back around 5,000 sq miles of the Pakistani territory which India occupied in the war; and to get back 90,000 Prisoners of War, Pakistan gave away parts of Jammu and Kashmir territory to India, hence change from Cease Fire Line to Line of Control.
As a thinking citizen of Jammu and Kashmir State who wants united and independent Jammu and Kashmir with secular and democratic system, I am seriously concerned what will happen if Pakistan fails to pay back CPEC loans. What will Pakistan do when the Pakistani economy reaches a point where some tough decisions had to be taken in the ‘national interest’?
I wonder what Pakistan will sacrifice this time to save ‘national interest’ and national pride. In order to please China or, at least, to satisfy them, are they going to give away some more territory of Jammu and Kashmir; or they will handover Gwadar to them.
Writer is a political analyst, TV anchor and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Chairman South Asia Watch and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com

References:

1.    Reported and translated by Shohret Hoshur for RFA's Uyghur Service. Written in English by Brooks Boliek.

2.     Ibid

3.     ibid

4.     ibid

5.     http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/cpec-cornerstone-for-islamabads-quest-for-prosperity-nawaz-sharif/495836/#.WGxG8AKZJ2I.twitter

6.     Corrupt system, Aasim Sajjad Akhtar, Dawn, December 30th, 2016

7.     China to finance three more road projects under CPEC, Dawn December 27th, 2016

8.     Ibid, Comments

9.     Ibid, Comments

10.  Dawn, December 30th, 2016

11. Year end alarm bells, Farrukh Saleem, The News, 01 January 2017

12. Ibid

13.                        $61 billion, Farrukh Saleem, The News, 18 September 2016

14. ibid

15. Ibid.