In Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, ‘Jihad’ Encourages Sexual Slavery

In Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, ‘Jihad’ Encourages Sexual Slavery

Terrorists waging jihad in the name of liberating Kashmiris from Indian control use Kashmiri women as sex-slaves.

SENGE H SERING      06 Jul 2020

The ruler of the Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India in 1947 while adhering to the British constitutional mechanism for Subcontinent’s partition. His decision became an excuse for the newly-sired Pakistan to occupy Gilgit and Muzaffarabad districts. Sensing Pakistan’s vacillation on withdrawal, the representative of the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan warned that the illegal presence of Pakistani troops and Islamic mercenaries posed grave threat to life, honour and assets in Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoK) and delayed a peaceful settlement on Kashmir.

As if trying to fulfill this prophecy, Pakistan with its seven-decade long colonial approach has reduced the inhabitants of PoK into disenfranchised subjects. The policy to maximize strategic gains from issue of Kashmir has motivated the military oligarchy to lease PoK to Islamic Jihadi outfits, which sets major impediments to socio-economic sustainability and casts long shadows over democracy and civil liberties.

Kashmiri Women Used as Sex-Slaves in the Name of Jihad

During an interview, Nasir Aziz Khan—the spokesperson of United Kashmir People’s National Party—revealed that many jihadi outfits sustain their operations in PoK by managing sex rackets. While referring to the recent video leak of Syed Zameer Bukhari, chairman of Al-Muhafiz Foundation, Aziz informed that Bukhari was affiliated with Hafiz Saeed’s Jamat-ud-Dawa. Bukhari used the foundation’s office space in District Bagh to souteneur local girls to government officials. As per Aziz, the Pakistani secret service agents and local ministers have thrown their weight behind Bukhari to halt judicial prosecution.

The terrorists who wage jihad in the name of liberating Kashmiris from the clutches of Indian control use Kashmiri women as sex-slaves. Recently Indian police raided a Jihadi hideout in Kashmir and recovered steroids, sex pills, contraceptives and pornographic material. One female rape victim told the media that a member of Jaish-e-Muhammad outfit, which rules the roost in that locality, kidnapped her from her house in broad daylight.

Silence and ‘Honour’ Prevail Over Justice

Justice becomes a distant dream for rape victims in a warzone like PoK where rapists use political connection and collaboration with the military establishment to secure immunity. Sofia Bano was gang-raped in the hometown of the Prime Minister of PoK. Sofia said that the rapists were related to the PM. Her husband received death threats and eventually abandoned the case as they couldn’t afford to expose the family to prolonged dangers.

Another victim of gang-rape from Chehla Bandi said that she was raped by members of ruling party, Muslim League, who have since created hurdles for the police to halt the case.

A gang-rape victim from Hussainkot said that her family chose honor over justice. One of the rapists, a policeman from her neighborhood, filmed the incident to extort money and the family paid him for his silence.

A large majority of families cannot afford to face the ordeal as their daughters would become “unmarriageable” and fail to find suitable husbands. Such girls also face daunting challenges to continue education or find jobs. In addition, the families risk losing social status, assets or businesses for confronting the high-powered culprits. Some families even get ostracized and eventually migrate to other towns to avoid shame and revenge.

Sexual Assault in Bunkers is an Epidemic

Jalaluddin Mughal is a local journalist from PoK who wrote a feature on molestation and rape in the security bunkers. Many of these bunkers were constructed in the 1990s by the Islamic Relief Foundation which retains ties with the global Muslim Brotherhood movement. Raja Saeem Manzoor, a political activist from Chikar, informs that one needs military clearance to construct and manage such bunkers where women take shelter at night during mortar-fires from the Indian side of Kashmir.

Mr. Manzoor revealed that sexual assault in bunkers is an epidemic that no one mentions.

Many times the rapists are soldiers who get away with the crimes since police and civil courts have no authority to pursue cases against military personnel. Further, emboldened by their relationship with the military, the bunker owners also demand sexual favors from women in exchange for security.

Women of PoK are caught between a rock and a hard place. There is risk to life for staying at home during the shelling and risk to honor for spending nights in these coop-sized unlit bunkers, says Sajjad Raja, who chairs Kashmir’s Equality Party, and currently resides in Manchester, UK. “Speaking up against sexual assaults is a double whammy. Why risk losing a spot in the bunker by embarrassing the owner when there is no hope for justice due to owner’s political clout”, asks Raja.

PoK Women Live to Tell the Tale And Suffer

Anam Zakaria in her feature in Daily Dawn mentions two local women Mehnaz and Nasreen who decided to make the painful choice of staying inside their homes during shelling. Nasreen told Zakaria that she once made the mistake of dragging her children to find safety in the bunker. There, an older man raped her 13 year old daughter, Ayesha. Nasreen said that the man had a knife and had threatened to kill Ayesha for speaking up. Few months later, Ayesha got pregnant and the council decided to marry Ayesha to the rapist to save her honor. Unable to handle the pain of birthing at such tender age, Ayesha hemorrhaged to death in labor. Her child also died a few months later. Zakaria mentions that many families opt to abort rape related pregnancies at home and not involve doctors to avoid social stigma which enhances risks to lives.

Amidst this gloom and doom, one gang-rape victim, Ms. Maria Tahir of District Bhimber stands tall. The unrelenting threats to life and honor failed to discourage her from exposing the rapists who have found shelter among government ministers and military officials. During a press conference in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, Ms. Tahir informed that rapists videotaped the vile incident to extort money, and when she refused, they kidnapped her along with her child. She says that the same gang burned another rape victim to death for speaking up.

The police while trying to protect the culprits registered defamation case against Ms. Tahir to deter from pursuing the case. The police also forced Ms. Tahir to sign documents declaring the rape as consensual sexual activity, which means she could be prosecuted for adultery. Sensing no let-up in her determination, the law enforcers tortured her family and asked the village council to diffuse the matter. Ms. Tahir has written forty-two letters to the Chief Justice of PoK, and his response should shock everyone reading this article. During a conversation in the court chamber, the Chief Justice said to Ms. Tahir, “You are already married, not a virgin. You should not mind rape. Please drop the case”.

Is Pakistan Occupied Kashmir a Rerun of East Pakistan?

Ms. Tahir cannot return to PoK due to death threats. Daring rape victims like Ms. Tahir need widespread recognition or such bravery and sacrifices will be all for naught. She recently got a shot in the arm when several right-activists from different parts of the world spoke on her behalf at the spring session of the United Nations Human Rights Council.

Pakistan is signatory to the United Nation’s Convention on Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women which espouses for gender equality, justice and guarantees protection to life, honor and assets.

Yet, this remains a distant dream for the people of Pakistan occupied Kashmir as rulers use sexual violence against women as a tool to prolong occupation.

PoK is a rerun of East Pakistan where local women were at the mercy of Pakistani soldiers for decades before local Bengalis sought Indian help to throw Pakistani military out. The United Nations should send members of its Committee on Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) to PoK to find role of Pakistani officials and military-led Islamist terrorists in crimes against women. Further, the international community must help India resume control of PoK as this is the only way to establish constitutional supremacy to secure citizens’ rights and eliminate terror outfits to restore local freedoms.

(Author is a researcher and human rights advocate born in Pakistan-occupied- Gilgit-Baltistan. He was a visiting fellow to the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, New Delhi in 2009. He runs a Washington DC based Institute for Gilgit Baltistan Studies. He tweets at @SengeHSering. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/pok-gilgit-baltistan-jihad-sexual-assault-rape-kashmiri-women

Why don’t Kashmiri women want to hide in bunkers during cross - border firing?

Why don’t Kashmiri women want to hide in bunkers during cross - border firing?

Anam Zakaria   26 March 2019

“When you’re so close to each other, in this small space, you can understand what would transpire.”

“After the 2005 earthquake, several girls were kidnapped, sexually abused or raped in the camps. We had all heard stories about what happened to them… we didn’t want to risk our safety or that of our children… so we picked up our belongings and came here instead…”

Iam sitting amidst four Kashmiri women in Bara Kahu, on the outskirts of Islamabad. Five families, including half a dozen children, are cramped inside this house.

On the outside, it seems as if India-Pakistan tensions have de-escalated. Just recently, officials from both countries met to discuss the Kartarpur peace corridor.

However for Kashmiris, peace remains elusive. The events of and after February 26th have resulted in deaths, injuries and displacement in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). The internet is still shut and cell phones are hardly working. Those living across the Line of Control in the Indian-held Kashmir have been caught in the crossfire too.

The women I sit with today have been displaced from a village near Chakotti, which has faced the brunt of firing over the past few weeks. They tell me that the stories of what happens to girls in relief camps and community bunkers are known across Kashmir.

That’s why they didn’t want to move into the temporary shelters set up by the government. Instead, they came here, to Bara Kahu. They are one of the fortunate few families who could afford to do so.

Despite promises, the government has failed to provide individual bunkers to families even in areas that have faced heavy shelling for years.

The communal bunkers, several of which were built by relief agencies like the Islamic Relief in the 1990s, are small dark spaces of about 13x7 feet.

During heavy shelling, anywhere between 20 to 30 people have to cram inside, hoping against hope that a mortar won’t come their way. I am told that it is within these bunkers and camps that sexual exploitation takes place.

Read next: How women in Kashmir's Neelum Valley ensured ceasefire at the LoC

These cases, however, go unreported and undocumented. Notions of ‘shame’ and ‘honour’ have pushed generations of abuse survivors into silence.

Women thus remain reluctant to speak about the prevalence of abuse, though I am told it is an open secret. At most they say they have heard that it happened to ‘others.’

No one wants to share their own experiences; for years they have been hushed into silence, told that their ‘honour’, their ‘future prospects’, their ‘respect’ hinges on staying mum.

The ‘dishonour’ rests not so much in the act as it does in speaking about the act. Those whose abuse becomes known are shamed far more than those who abuse.

Some men, however, are more forthcoming. The fact that ‘honour’ is associated with women frees the men to speak about what they witnessed or even engaged in.

Society is structured in a way that even abuse endured by women can often only be spoken of by men. That space too is not theirs to claim.

While women express the general fear and vulnerability they feel, it is men who go into the details of what happened. I spoke to one such man, on the condition of anonymity.

Related: Courage lies in the hearts of Kashmiri women who dream of freedom

A resident of Neelum Valley, he spoke of the abuse he had perpetrated on women when he was a young teenager in the 1990s. The term he used for all instances he engaged in — from molestation to penetrative rape — was ‘setting’. Larki ke saath setting ho gaye (I got in a setting with a girl) is a common phrase.

While the phrase may denote consent from both parties, what women feel about such ‘setting’ is often ignored, their consent either assumed or not deemed significant.

As the man said to me, “larkiyan tou shuru mein sharmati hi hain” (women are always shy in the beginning). Women’s rejection of men is dismissed as mere shyness or nervousness; they must all be willing, they must all come around to liking it.

However, in other cases he himself admits, “kuch zabardasti bhi karte thay” (sometimes we would force it). He said he had engaged in seven or eight such ‘settings’. Below is an edited excerpt from our conversation:

“Five or six families from the mohalla (neighbourhood) would hide inside the morchas (bunkers) together… during firing, everybody is trying to save their own lives… we are not concerned with who is a man or a woman… but once the firing halts, things change.

“Usually, families who have come from the mohalla to seek refuge in the community bunker stay the night. They are too scared to leave in case the firing starts again.

“There used to be many of us squeezed together… sitting, lying down next to each other in the pitch dark… there would be no light.

“When you’re so close to each other, in this small space, where you can even hear each other’s breath… aap samajh sakti hain kya hota ho ga… (you can understand what would transpire).

“All the senior boys in my school would talk about how many settings they had in bunkers. I did my first setting when I was 15 or 16 years old.

“When the elders would sleep, that’s when it would start… yes, many times the girls didn’t like it. They would pull back, they would try moving away… they were women of all ages… as young as 13 or 14 and as old as 35-40. Some of them were married, they had children…

“In our society no one wants to speak about such things. Even when the elders in the family found out, no one wanted to bring any attention to what had happened.

“They would say ‘inse shaadi kon karega?’ (who would marry them [the girls]?)… if ever there was any noise, a tamasha, the families themselves would try to cover it up. They would say ‘keera kaat gaya kuch nai hoa’ (nothing happened, she yelled because of an insect bite)…”

Discover: 12 months, 12 inspirational Kashmiri women

He tells me that there were a few incidents that did became public.

Once, a man caught raping a girl was tied to a pole for three days as punishment, but the girl became unmarriageable in their community.

“Eventually, she was married off in a far away village, where nobody knew what had happened to her.”

Another girl, who was 'caught' being raped by her cousin, was forced to marry him overnight. “She hated her cousin, she would always be cursing him but her family got a moulvi and married her off to him the same night.”

In cases where girls were impregnated as a result of rape, emotional and physical abuse followed. Taking them to the hospital would give away their identity and so these women were subjected to home abortions.

He tells me of one girl who was operated on at home to abort the pregnancy; the premature stillborn baby was then thrown away by the women of the village, only to be discovered later in the mouth of a donkey.

***

The recent escalation in firing, the setting up of relief camps and the refurbishing of community bunkers has triggered memories of the abuse endured by many residents of AJK over the past decades.

The women I meet in Bara Kahu demand that bunkers should be built for each home in areas prone to firing so they don’t have to risk their safety any longer.

Their demands and protests have, however, gone in vain so far.

As the conflict heats up again, families are left oscillating between the fear of death from shelling and the threat of sexual violence in what are meant to be communal safe havens.

A few weeks back in Neelum, fellow journalist Jalaluddin Mughal asked a widow why she didn’t hide with her daughter in the community bunker during the firing. She responded: “hum jaan bachayein ya izzat bachayein?” (Should we save our lives or our honour?).

Anam Zakaria is the author of Footprints of Partition: Narratives of Four Generations of Pakistanis and Indians and Between the Great Divide: A Journey into Pakistan-administered Kashmir

https://www.dawn.com/news/1472015

In programme My Voice, my guest is Dr Misfer Hasan, President Liberation League, Britain.

In programme My Voice, my guest is Dr Misfer Hasan, President Liberation League, Britain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5RUJ1-l-xQ&feature=youtu.be

‘Chinese intrusion in Ladakh- Jammu and Kashmir. New Threats and Challenges to Peace and Security in the South Asian Region’.

My presentation in International conference on ‘Chinese intrusion in Ladakh- Jammu and Kashmir. New Threats and Challenges to Peace and Security in the South Asian Region’.

The Conference arranged by UNITED KASHMIR PEOPLE`S NATIONAL PARTY (UKPNP) on Wednesday 24 June 2020

Mr Chairman, friends and colleagues Salam to all of you.

Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte once said:

“China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will move the world.”

What he meant was to let this giant sleep, because if he wakes up there will be trouble for the region and the world.

Sadly this giant woke up some decades ago, and many of the problems of our region and world can be attributed to policies of this giant.

During this apparent sleep, China suffered humiliation, and degradation of various kinds. However, for some decades the rulers of China have started to assert China at the centre-stage of the world politics.

No country can become great without economic muscle, and many wars in the world are started because of economic reasons. With help of unprecedent economic growth and careful planning, China is emerging as a new Superpower, with intention to play a leading role in the world politics. Slowly, but surely they are asserting themselves in many countries, and especially in Asia and its peripheries.

China is on a mission to build a new kind of empire, which will be different to the empires of the past. China does not use gun boat diplomacy in its zeal to build an empire; rather they use their economic muscle, and stringent conditions attached to loans they provide to vulnerable client countries. Also, they use coercion, cajoling and diplomatic skills to achieve their targets.

It was evident many years ago that China will not be able to sustain its economic growth. When things start going wrong, signs of this become visible not only to the local experts, but also to the international experts.

When I anchored a TV programme in 2014 in London, I pointed out that China will not be able to maintain this economic growth. My guests disagreed with me.

Anyhow, economic slowdown generally result in flight of capital; and international investment stops. The scale of the problem can be judged by this fact that in 2016, an estimated one Trillion US Dollars were taken out of China. At that time China’s GDP was ten Trillion US Dollars.

To counter the economic slowdown and other challenges, China initiated the CPEC and One Belt One Road; which were designed to boost China’s economy. The ruling elite of China decided to use cement and steel production and the Chinese money to build infrastructure in other countries. Many countries got trapped in this debt trap, including our neighbour, Pakistan.

Mr Chairman

With this short background, I want to examine China’s recent intrusion in Ladakh, a region which is legal and constitutional part of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir.

After the imperialist attack by Pakistan to capture Kashmir on 22 October 1947, the Ruler of Jammu and Kashmir was forced to seek help from India, which was only provided after he agreed to accede to India.

Many citizens of Jammu and Kashmir regard the entire forcibly divided State of Jammu and Kashmir disputed, however, the fact remains that this region is administered and controlled by India. It is India’s responsibility to protect this region, and drive out all the invaders form Jammu and Kashmir, and ensure that life, liberty, honour and property of all citizens is protected.

Current India and China trade

It is not the first time that China and India are squabbling. To some, it is on - going thing, which erupts from time to time; and for some it is a normal practise in disputed areas. Remember, Ladakh is not the only disputed region between China and India.

Despite their disagreements and stand offs along the Line of Actual Control, their trade continues unhindered. According to CNN, the trade between China and India in 2019 was:

·      87 billion US Dollars;

·      Chinese investment in India is 26 billion US Dollars;

·      In the field of Telecom, China is a big player in India;

·      Four out of five big companies which sell smart phones in India, are Chinese;

·      These companies are: Realtime, Opo, Vivo and Xiomi;

·      In 2019, these four companies have earned 16 billion US dollars;

·      95% of trade of Xiomi is with India.

Main focus of both countries is economic growth, and both want to avoid a disastrous military clash that can ruin their economies. In nutshell, the Chinese intrusion in Ladakh is not related to economic interests.

Mr Chairman, Other possible reasons for the Chinese intrusion

Whenever legitimacy and power of the ruling elite is questioned, or they feel they need to divert attention of the people, they start boosting nationalism to control dissent and muster support of the people.

In this context, some people claim China is facing many domestic and international challenges, and a war like situation can help to divert attention from those problems and muster support by drumming up the Chinese nationalism.

China has serious challenges of international magnitude in the South China Sea. There are serious problems with economy, with Belt and Road Initiative and the CPEC. Also there are serious challenges in Hong Kong and in various parts of China.

India also has a number of domestic and international challenges. Therefore, a war like situation suits both countries, as long as it does not escalate in to a full scale war.

The Chinese experts assert that this war like situation developed because of the Indian foreign policy, and support of America in the New Cold war between China and America.

Global Times, a state owned Chinese daily in its recent report advised India, ‘not to engage and get embroiled in the larger US - China confrontation’, as that could be ‘detrimental for the Indian economy and its interests in the region’.

A section of policymakers in China think the ‘present Sino-Indian standoff is an outcome of India’s willingness to toe the U.S. line on China, rather than one of many border disputes that have emerged between the two countries since the demarcation of territories after the Sino-Indian war in 1962’.

The Chinese experts advise India to formulate their China policy independent of America, that both countries can resolve the issues diplomatically and establish peace in this region.

Mr Chairman, we need to look at the Chines game plan.

In my opinion, China is playing a dangerous game. While there can be some merit in all of the reasons pointed above, I think China has other motives to assert its claim and invade a territory that does not belong to them.

As noted above, Ladakh is part of Jammu and Kashmir, and the Security Council Resolution of 13 August 1948, allowed India to maintain its troops in the areas of Jammu and Kashmir under their control. It means, in the eyes of the international community, the presence of the Indian troops in that region is legal and it is their responsibility to protect these areas.

India was building some roads in Daulat Beg Oldi strategic camp area to strengthen their defences. This was known to the Pakistani and the Chinese intelligence. They thought if the new infrastructure is built as planned, that could help India to attack Siachin and Gilgit Baltistan, and possibly take over this region in future.

That was a nightmare scenario for both Islamabad and Beijing. Surely both of them have economic and strategic interests attached with this region. If India was to take over Gilgit Baltistan that would have been a very serious blow to the interests of Islamabad and Beijing.

The Indian takeover of Gilgit Baltistan could have throttled the CPEC and cut off the land access between China and Pakistan. Fearing this looming threat, the Chinese intrusion was a pre-emptive measure to stop India completing its planned infrastructure.

It should be noted that India was building this infrastructure on their side of the demarcation. China has no right to invade a territory that does not belong to them.

Although India and China under the rules of engagement on the Line of Actual Control, cannot use weapons, still there have been causalities on both sides. It is believed that India has lost twenty soldiers and Chinese causalities is more than thirty.

Despite a number of meetings between Chines and the Indians, the issue has not been resolved yet. China stands by with its claim over the Galwan Valley, and India rejects it. China is determined to establish an observatory post at the side of the Galwan River. The objective of that is to keep an eye on what India is doing or may do in future in this region.

India, for obvious reason, does not agree with that and the disagreement with all its tension and dangers continues. Some people claim that both sides need a face saving. I disagree with that. The territory in question is part of Jammu and Kashmir. It is my territory, and China is not a party to this in any form or shape. They must leave our territory.

It is sad to note that some naïve citizens of Jammu and Kashmir were dancing up and down that China has invaded Ladakh. They were happy that India was punished. These people are anti national, who work against the interests of our motherland – Jammu and Kashmir.

These are the people, who betrayed their oath to the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir, and helped the neighbouring country to attack and invade Jammu and Kashmir in October 1947. As a result of their treachery, Pakistan occupied so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.

India and Pakistan are recognised parties to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, and in presence of these two countries, we people of Jammu and Kashmir are not represented anywhere at the international level.

With these two countries being a party to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute we have suffered since 1947. Just imagine, how difficult it will become if we, in order to strengthen the Pakistani narrative, also make China party to the dispute.

With addition of China, the Jammu and Kashmir dispute will become more complicated, and more difficult to resolve. Surely, it will add to our miseries and suffering; and it will endanger the peace and security of the region.

Mr Chairman, I thank you.

The China - India Standoff and the Myth of a New Cold War

The China - India Standoff and the Myth of a New Cold War

Chinese media are trying to cast the present crisis as a part of the “New Cold War” between the United States and China. Don’t be fooled.

By Sajid Farid Shapoo   June 13, 2020

A recent report in Global Times, a state-owned Chinese daily, while commenting on the ongoing border standoff between China and India, advised India not to engage and get embroiled in the larger U.S.-China confrontation. Baked in the advice was also a subtle warning that becoming a U.S. front in the “New Cold War” could be detrimental for the Indian economy and its interests in the region.

The report is revealing in many ways. It signals that a section of, if not all, Chinese policymakers see the present Sino-Indian standoff as an outcome of India’s willingness to toe the U.S. line on China, rather than one of many border disputes that have emerged between the two countries since the demarcation of territories after the Sino-Indian war in 1962.

More importantly it reiterates the Chinese rhetoric of the heralding of a “New Cold War” era between the United States and China. While most Western experts do not see any merit in the hyperbole of the beginning of a new era of superpower competition, Chinese media, its policymakers, and scholars have audaciously attempted to craft the narrative of the advent of the “New Cold War.”

Such a portrayal comes across as a brazen attempt to present the world with a fait accompli: China as an established superpower and an adversarial second pole in the global distribution of power. This discourse has another immediate implication. While the current standoff between India and China may be resolved with diplomatic efforts, the future of India-China peace, in the Chinese view, depends on India’s ability to pursue its China policy independently and not under the shadow of the growing U.S.-India alliance.

However, viewing the current Sino-Indian stand off as a part of global geopolitical gameplay would be an example of strategic myopia. It is not the first time that India and China have come face to face on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), that came to be the de facto border between the two countries after the 1962 Sino-Indian War.

In last 50 years, both countries have squabbled over territorial demarcations all along the China- Indian border. There are over a dozen places in the Ladakh area, near the Bhutan-China border, and in Arunachal Pradesh where the two countries differ over the on-ground position of the LAC. The 2017 Doklam dispute, in the central sector, was one such dispute. The current crisis has seen Chinese troops build up at Galwan Nala and Pangong lake area in the Ladakh region and at the Nathu La pass near the Bhutan-China border. The simultaneous face off at three different places along the LAC appears not only well coordinated but also part of a plan that could not have been conceived at the local or sub-area level.

Some experts opine that India’s newfound assertiveness along the LAC in terms constructing feeder roads and supportive infrastructure may perhaps be seen as the trigger for the current standoff. The Chinese transgression may therefore be a bid to stop India from building permanent infrastructure, which could potentially give India a strategic advantage.

This argument has baffled some security analysts in India as the troop build-up by China along the LAC started when the most of the Indian roads and feeder roads construction near those points was said to have reached near completion. The chances of China having missed this construction and being caught unaware are slim as China boasts fairly robust reconnaissance (both ground and space-based) capabilities.

Moreover, the road and infrastructure development by both sides along the LAC to shore up their respective strategic positions has continued for many years; these have led to minor skirmishes but rarely triggered a major border transgression, that too at multiple points. As M. Taylor Fravel wrote, the scope, scale, and position of China’s build-up appears unprecedented. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh acknowledged that a large number of Chinese troops have been stationed on the other side of Galwan Nala, and that Chinese fighters were making sorties within 30 km of their side of the LAC.

Another proffered explanation is that China is trying to signal its strength in a bid to restore its credibility and rebuild its image, both of which have taken a severe beating in the continuing fallout from the global pandemic. Many scholars and China watchers claim that the economic setbacks suffered by China due to COVID-19, along with its already shaky economy, may have prompted Beijing to resort to the latest transgression, with the twin goals of diverting the focus from domestic issues to an external enemy, and at the same time exhibiting China’s strength to the world audience.

Some South Asian experts also allude to a conspiracy theory that sees the current standoff as a possible preemptive move by China to forestall India’s supposed intentions for a military adventure in the northern areas of Pakistan (Gilgit and Baltistan), through which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes.

Both these arguments, however, fall more in the realm of speculation and hypotheticals with no evidence of such moves on the ground. Such views also do not seem to reflect the narrative prevalent in the Chinese domestic space. China has avoided escalating the current border issue by toning down the nationalistic rhetoric and also by not taking a firm stand on the issue. This could be a useful strategy to avoid any audience costs in case of having to back down to the pre-crisis position.

Even an authoritarian regime like China has been seen to be sensitive to domestic audience costs. During the Doklam crisis, many Chinese felt that that China had lost the war of perceptions as it was domestically seen as having backed down from its stated position to end the crisis.

Additionally, Chinese leadership does not believe that the pandemic has dented its international position. In fact, many within the CCP see the current global crisis, particularly the devastating impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy, as an opportunity to stake claim to its great power status, ushering in an end to U.S. primacy and a transition toward a bipolar world.

Chinese belligerence should in fact be seen more through the context of its emerging self-narrative of China as the second pole in the new bipolar world. Leader Xi Jinping sees the time as ripe for replacing the “rising China” narrative with the rhetoric of China having arrived as a global superpower.

The “third revolution” of Xi Jinping, as identified by scholar Elizabeth Economy, is predicated on upending the Deng era adage of “hide your strength and bide your time.” For Xi, China must now claim its position in the global distribution of power. The current border standoff is thus being projected more in terms of global geopolitics.

China is trying to portray the crisis as part of superpower gameplay in the so called “New Cold War.” Both Chinese national media and its experts see U.S. support as one of the main drivers behind India’s firmness and aggression in dealing with its border issues with China.

By asking India not to get played by the United States, China attempts to convey that its real competition is with the U.S. and not India. This backdoor attempt to gain entry into the superpower club, by harping on the narrative of “New Cold War” is apparently working. Many Western scholars have also fallen prey to this rhetoric and have started seeing it as a real thing.

India, on its part, has received considerable support from the United States during both the 2017 Doklam standoff and the current crisis. The growing voices in the West that the U.S. should forge a deep strategic alliance, both economic and defense oriented, with India also gels with the emerging view of India being a natural ally of the United States and thus a bulwark against China in Asia. While this may come as a big boost to India’s position in the region, New Delhi must tread this path cautiously.

The “New Cold War,” if it ever becomes a reality, would be completely different from the Cold War of the twentieth century. The U.S. no longer enjoys the same hegemonic status as it did decades ago. Its position as the leader of the liberal international order has long been eroded. Its European partners no longer see the United States as a dependable ally.

Suffice to say that the Cold War doubts over U.S. extended deterrence are far more pertinent today. It may thus not be advisable for India to put all its eggs in one basket. India must, as it is trying to, handle its bilateral issues with China in an independent manner without falling prey to the Chinese narrative.

Handling the current standoff as purely a bilateral issue without linking it to the so called “New Cold War” would not only be strategically beneficial for India but also undermine Chinese efforts to craft the superpower gameplay narrative and thus its bid to elevate itself to the position of a new pole in the international distribution of power.

China’s backdoor machinations of claiming superpower status are predicated on its ability to be accepted first as a regional hegemon. Its lingering disputes with most of its neighbors would make it difficult for regional states to accept or accord such a status to China. India by playing on its own strengths would deny China the strategic space it is trying to grab by casting the present crisis as a part of the “New Cold War” between the United States and China. Instead, it should solely be seen and handled purely as a bilateral dispute between the two neighbors.

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Sajid Farid Shapoo is a highly decorated Indian Police Service officer (two star general) and is currently a PhD scholar at the Princeton University. He also holds a Masters in International Affairs from Columbia University and regularly writes on geopolitical and security related issues.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/the-china-india-standoff-and-the-myth-of-a-new-cold-war/