Sunday, 22 May 2011

Threats To Pakistan: The Scenario And The Response

Threats To Pakistan: The Scenario And The Response

SUNDAY, MAY 22, 2011

Najam Mahmud | TX Desk

This short paper will look at the current geo political situation that Pakistan faces. The aftermath of the “Osama” event has raised the threat levels for Pakistan and brought out in the open the atrocious designs of our so called strategic partner, the USA.

The threats are multiple and complex, the response has to be equally befitting and effective to counter the perilous security environment that is being created in and around Pakistan.

Three Prolonged Threats:


The transformation of Israel from a midget to an ugly giant is in the making. The grand design of Zionist expansionism is to seize all the oil-rich lands from the shores of the Euphrates to the banks of the Nile. The current chaos in the Middle East must be understood with this Zionist plan. No doubt many of the people taking part in the Middle East uprisings are genuinely doing so for their natural rights but Israel has full plans to manipulate the chaos in order to create an environment and an excuse for the nest big war in the Middle East.

The Americans as usual will blindly support Israel like a slave fulfills every wish of his master however before Israel can impose another war it has a problem that is still stopping it from moving ahead. This problem is not Iran nor Syria it is the nuclear deterrence of Pakistan, plus the advance missile technology and highly well-trained and ideologically-motivated Pakistan armed forces.

Israel has always tried to sabotage the Pakistani nuclear program but miserably failed; now it is trying again through the Americans who have staged the Osama drama to put pressure on Pakistan and create a serious threat to its nuclear installations. The US at the behest of Israel is using its corporate media to spread negative propaganda about the safety of the Pakistani nuclear assets and some reports have even suggested that if things were to become volatile in Pakistan, the Americans will physically move in to secure the nuclear assets. This is easier said than done and the Pakistan Armed forces have made all the contingency plans to counter such nefarious US designs.

The reader must understand that all the hue and cry about the ISI and all the fake reports planted in the media that exaggerate the reports of militants' power is nothing more than a carefully conceived deception to convince the large ignorant public that the Pakistani nuclear program is 'a threat'. The fact of the matter is that all the Pakistani strategic installations and assets are well protected and no one can get close to the installations, let alone infiltrating them.

The proposed map of a "Greater Israel"

Israel is planning to wage a grand war in the Middle East as it hopes to fulfill its plan of creating what it calls a ‘Greater Israel’. A significant spoke in the wheels for Israel is the nuclear capability of Pakistan. Israel understands that unlike the easy targets in the Middle East, Pakistan not only has the strategic arsenal but also the capability of posing a serious threat to Israel’s future hegemonic plans in the region.

The humiliating defeat that the Americans now clearly see in Afghanistan is making Israel panic and pushing it towards a new misadventure. In the fast changing Middle East scenario and the final show down in Afghanistan, Pakistan must be ready to respond to and efficiently counter all possible threats.

2. The United States of America

It is obvious to the world that the American military industrial complex like all the previous empires that tried to conquer Afghanistan are failing and now looking for a face-saving exit. The staged hoax at Abbottabad was also done for this purpose so that the American president can tell his people "the mission’ has been accomplished". There is no need to go into too much detail, it sufficient to note that various independent sources over the years have confirmed that Osama died many years back. The failure of the US administration to provide any proof only goes to confirm that the recent claims are nothing more than well staged lies

The Americans know they have to leave, with the spring offensive “Operation Badar” now well underway the Afghan Taliban have launched major offensives which are raising the cost of war for the Americans both in human and monetary terms.

Map of Afghanistan (red regions are Taliban strongholds, pink regions are areas with Taliban activity and minimum government control)

The US wants to damage Pakistan before it leaves Afghanistan. In addition, it still dreams of somehow causing harm to Pakistan' nuclear deterrence and it is for this purpose that the CIA has been stabbing Pakistan in the back and playing a double game with the ISI.

The Americans have also been engaged in questionable activities inside Pakistan and the increased tensions between ISI and CIA have reached unprecedented levels. It is encouraging to see that finally the defence establishment in the country has effected a reduction in the US military/ intelligence staff in Pakistan.

3. India

Those who closely monitor Indian defence and foreign policy understand very well that India always attempts to harm Pakistani interests whenever any opportunity arises. India has and will always try to stab Pakistan in the back. Majority of Pakistanis understand the sinister Indian designs and also realize that any moves to normalize the relations between the two countries hold no real value for if a country’s defence and ideological doctrine is based on damaging your country and threatening your very existence, then peace is nothing more than wishful thinking. Indeed, a few Pakistanis fall for such moves like 'Aman ki Asha'; some out of pure naivety while some who are traitors in the ranks and guilty of treason.

The pragmatic and patriotic elements in Pakistan understand the Indian subversive activities being carried out in Pakistan. There is irrefutable evidence that India has been trying to destabilize Pakistan and therefore no talk of peace can be taken seriously by a neighbor that spends billions in trying to harm your country.

While the threats from India must never be underestimated, it is also important to make India realize that attacking Pakistan will not be in India’s own interest and may result in consequences that bring the end to its existence. The reader will understand that I am alluding to the separatist movements in India which can easily flare up if any sort of conflict is to erupt between the two nuclear states. The separatist movements in India have the potential to weaken the federation and eventually disintegrate it. The dynamics can take a much more dire turn in case India engages in any future conflict with Pakistan.

The Response:

We have briefly discussed the threats being faced by Pakistan. The situation is critical and the response has to be befitting to reduce the threat level. It must be understood that a dangerous game is being played by the three states, lead by our so-called friend and ally, the United States of America. However, the facts on the ground are now obvious to everyone and minus a small minority of ignorant or insincere elements, the majority of the people of Pakistan understand that the US has been an enemy in the guise of a friend and stabbing us in the back along with India while Israel has been playing its role by its lobby's influence in the US. It is fairly well understood that Washington's foreign policy is dictated by Tel Aviv.

Now we look at the Pakistani response to the threats:

1. Nuclear Deterrence

The Pakistani nuclear program has gone from strength to strength, and Pakistan has also now ensured that it has the means of sustaining a surprise attack and still manage to retaliate by deploying a second strike capability. In this regard the key achievements are:

> Pakistan now has deeply buried storage and launch facilities to retain a second strike capability in a nuclear war.

> Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has been redeployed at new secret locations. There is also expansion taking place to augment the program and maintain the level needed for strategic deterrence.

> In terms of the delivery mechanism (in case the weapons need to be used), Pakistan has multiple means delivery: Fighter aircraft of Pakistan Air Force and surface-to-surface missiles controlled by the Pakistan Army.

> Pakistan has also accelerated its own missile development program and now has various types of ballistic missiles which are capable of carrying nuclear payloads. Pakistan is also developing nuclear-capable cruise missiles with ground, sea and air-launched versions. Pakistan continues to carry out ballistic missile tests after regular intervals.

Nuclear Doctrine

Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine is formulated to counter the Indian threat and given the level and nature of this threat, Pakistan maintains the option of first-strike. In other words in case of aggression by India, we retain the option to use nuclear weapons first, even if the attack is with conventional weapons.

Pakistan's nuclear policy is clear that a “minimum credible deterrent” must be maintained again as a deterrent to Indian military threat. Pakistan strategic assets have to be maintained at a level where they can achieve the following strategic imperatives:

> Thwart external aggression

> Thwart incoming attacks through a combination of conventional and strategic forces

> Ensure retaliatory capability by securing strategic weapons

> Ensure strategic deterrence as a contribution to South Asia's general defence

2. Strategic relations with China

In the entire Osama saga, China was the one country that stood by Pakistan and not only sent the US a clear message on what it thought of the violation of Pakistan's sovereignty but also stepped up visible physical support by announcing the supply of fifty JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft to Pakistan on an emergency basis.

The following statement by the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, was not just a message to Pakistan but also to the world especially the Americans: “I wish to stress here that no matter what changes might take place in the international landscape, China and Pakistan will remain forever good neighbours, good friends, good partners and good brothers”

In addition, Pakistan and China have also decided to conduct joint military exercises in China’s Xingjian province.

Xingjian’s deputy Chief of Staff recently met with Pakistan Army Chief General Kayani and discussed the details of the drills.

General Kayani sent a clear signal when he said ”Pakistan and China will further increase their defense cooperation, these military exercises will help Pakistani troops learn professional expertise from the Chinese forces”

The support from China has historical reasons but there are also strategic reasons why it will be permanent and unaffected by any changes in the international scene; when a US delegate once confronted a Chinese diplomat about Beijing's unconditional support for Pakistan, the Chinese responded with a befitting sarcastic remark: "Pakistan is our Israel". This phrase explains the whole back ground to the Pakistan-China relationship; the Pakistani nation must value this support and use it to counter the moves being made by our hidden and obvious enemies.

There have also been reports that China has told the US in unequivocal terms that it will not stay neutral in case of armed aggression against Pakistan.

3. Strategic relations with Saudi Arabia

Excerpts from the Terminal X report 'Concerns over the nuclear deterrence of Saudi Arabia':

In February 2011, Pakistan's then Foreign Minister Qureshi stated "We will stand by Gulf countries in case any security situation arises. Pakistan gets affected if there is any security problem in any of the GCC states".

Increasing geostrategic partnership between Rawalpindi and Riyadh has been causing concern to the Americans as well the Israelis.

It was Pakistan’s idea to create a Pakistan-GCC Security Council to collectively combat internal/external threats. In March 2011, Pakistan and the Gulf Cooperation Council held a joint strategic conference highlighting collaboration in the field of economics, agriculture, education but most importantly, defence and intelligence cooperation.

It is no secret that the Saudis have started to look towards Pakistan for support and also increased contacts with the Chinese in order to reduce their dependence on the US. The Saudi military and intelligence officials have discussed their concerns with Pakistan's GHQ and ISI, the concerns centre around the protection of the kingdom's sensitive assets. It is also pertinent to note that there are already a significant number of Pakistani SSG commandos and army units stationed in Saudi Arabia particularly near the Holy Sites of Makkah and Madinah.

The Sino-Pak-GCC strategic defence collaboration is the need of the hour and must be developed and made more effective to counter the dangerous game being played in the Middle East and Pakistan.

It was encouraging to read the reports that Secretary-General of Saudi Arabia's National Security Council Prince Bandar bin Sultan paid a visit to China and finalized a deal for CSS-3 DF-3 ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads.

4. Relations with Turkey

Pakistan and Turkey enjoy very close and cordial relationship in ideological, political, economic, defence and technical fields but these need to be further strengthened particularly in the field of defence. In 2010, the Turk President Abdullah Gul stressed the need for initiating joint defence production projects between Pakistan and Turkey.

President Gul said the existing strategic partnership between Pakistan and Turkey provides an opportunity for joint ventures among the defence production organs of the defence forces of Pakistan and Turkey. He also showed keen interest in Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder aircraft.

Pakistan and Turkey must further boost their strategic partnership and intensify political and economic cooperation. It is a positive change that Turkey has distanced itself from Israel, eventually this relationship should end and Turkey should foster strategic ties with camp that is to challenge the Israeli/American nexus.

5. The Russian factor

Russia and Pakistan are expanding their cooperation, with a package of recent agreements on a number of key directions such as energy, transport and agriculture, signed at a summit in Moscow recently. Apart from that, President Dmitri Medvedev upheld Pakistan’s desire to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Assessing the outcome of negotiations at Moscow, the Russian head of state stressed their importance and urged the promotion of bilateral ties:

“Overall, relations between Russia and Pakistan have been progressing consistently and steadily. We have seen interest in mutual cooperation from our business communities, regional authorities and public organizations. I therefore see excellent prospects for our cooperation. I believe we should step up our economic cooperation, and certain steps have been taken already but more needs to be done in various areas”

There are also reports that Pakistan is in talks with Russia for purchasing fighter aircraft. This is a good move to reduce dependence on American weapons and must be pursued successfully and swiftly.

Finally, it is also a positive sign that China and Russia have also agreed to promote the sustained growth of their strategic partnership over the next decade. The equation of China-Russia-Pakistan is one that can more than counter any American moves in the region and beyond.
Concluding Remarks

Pakistan is facing unprecedented threats from multiples sources. The situation is extremely sensitive and volatile and the response has to be carefully calculated and managed. An emotional or hasty response can compromise the national interest and our strategic assets. The ISI and the armed forces confront the enemies. The nation must wise up and avoid falling into the trap being laid by the enemy.

Vicious media campaigns, half-baked truths and twisted facts are being used not only by the American and Zionist media but also by their agents planted in our local media houses. People must not accept all the news given to them on popular channels. They have to make the effort of corroborating news and information from independent sources to understand the complete picture. Partial truth is often as dangerous as total lies; twisted news is often made up of facts mixed with some fictional elements.

It might not be farfetched to assume that a war may be imposed on Pakistan by the US, its form might be direct or indirect but the nation must be ready for any eventuality. India will also offer itself to be used and may go for a limited strike however the guaranteed response of our armed forces must make it think twice before any misadventure.

The nation must be ready to face any threatening development and everyone must stand firm with the Armed forces.

I end this paper with a quote from the founder of Pakistan, M.A. Jinnah:

“Pakistan has come to stay and no power on earth can destroy it”.

Najam Mahmud is a resident analyst and commentator for Terminal X. He specialises in geopolitical and geostrategic analyses and holds a Masters in Intl. Conflict Analysis from the University of Kent and can be reached at: nmahmud71[at]

Read more: Threats to Pakistan: The Scenario and the Response ~ Terminal X

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