Pakistan ranks seventh in the 10 countries
that are most affected by climate change globally. —Shutterstock
Extreme
and erratic weather conditions, regular floods and lower agricultural outputs
call for urgent adaptation reforms to counter the adverse effects of climate
change in Pakistan.
Currently,
Pakistan ranks seventh in the 10 countries that
are most affected by climate change globally, with 133 events directly
attributed to it in the last two decades and costing the country $3.82 billion
in losses.
The Long-Term Climate Risk Index (CRI): the 10
countries most affected from 1996 to 2015 (annual averages). Courtesy – Global
Climate Risk Index 2017
According
to the Ministry of Climate Change, agriculture and food security in Pakistan
are particularly threatened due to increased heat and water stress on crops and
livestock, as well as a higher frequency of floods and droughts resulting from
changes in climate.
A 2013 report claims
that the temperature increases in Pakistan are expected to be higher than the
global average, resulting in reduced national agricultural productivity.
The
minimum and maximum temperatures during summers and winters have increased
throughout the country. While the temperatures have risen, the summer season
has become prolonged and winter has become shorter. The heat wave period has
also increased by 31 days during the years 1980 to 2007.
The
report explains that an increase of 1 degree Celsius in mean temperature may
reduce wheat yield by 5 to 7 percent in the country.
A
1 degree increase in average temperature during sowing stage, which is from
November to December, may reduce wheat yield by 7.4 percent. Shortened growing
seasons may lead to a decline in yields by 6 to 11 percent in wheat and 15 to
18 percent in basmati rice by 2080.
“The
foremost problem we are facing is that our cropping patterns of agriculture
have been disturbed due to changed weather patterns,” says Syed Rizwan Mehboob,
the Prime Minister’s focal person on climate change.
Read
more: Pakistan at Risk
To
counter these effects, adaption reforms may include drip and sprinkler
irrigation technology, well researched drought tolerant crop varieties and
climate monitoring and information-early warning system. However, roadblocks
exists in the implementation of these reforms.
The Ministry of Climate Change states,
“high initial cost of installation and maintenance for drip and sprinkler
systems and early warning system are identified as the key financial barrier in
the wide spread adoption of technology by the farmers and communities. The main
element of this barrier identified is the lack of trained technical staff
locally available for the design, installation and maintenance of the technologies,
high rate of taxes and custom duty imposed on import of technology parts, and a
small, underdeveloped market for technology importers and suppliers in the
country.”
Climate
change also adversely affects livestock production, which could decline 20 to 30 percent due
to rising temperatures, leading to crises in meat, milk and poultry supplies –
pushing prices beyond the reach of the average Pakistani.
The
agricultural sector would lose 2 to 15 billion dollars per annum due to climate
change by the end of the 21st century.
“Livestock
in the northern areas graze in the Alpine Meadows but now because of late
snowfall the duration of these grazing grounds have decreased,” says Mehboob.
“And the livestock in the Punjab Plain suffers as low agricultural output lead
to less feed for them. It is the duty of the agriculture research institutes to
come up with such livestock and crop varieties that can adapt and are resistant
to all climate change vulnerabilities.”
World Map of the Global Climate Risk Index
1996–2015. Courtesy – Global Climate Risk Index 2017
Global
warming, which leads to rapid melting of glaciers has consequential effects on
the river flows in Pakistan – more water is available causing floods and severe
droughts afterwards.
“The
severe floods of 2010 were attributed to the rapid melting of northern glaciers
and erratic monsoon rains in the northern areas, which dangerously coupled to
produce the unprecedented floods in Pakistan that wiped off 5 percent of the
national GDP through massive losses to human lives and infrastructure. Climate
change is predicted to cause more such floods followed by periods of droughts
as the northern glaciers rapidly melt and eventually vanish,” says the Ministry
of Climate Change.
According
to a National Climate Change Policy Draft, the projected recession
of Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) glaciers due to global warming and
carbon deposits from trans-boundary pollution sources threatens the water
inflows into the Indus River System.
“Unpredictable
weather patterns in terms of floods and heavy monsoons need to be dealt with
appropriate water management including proper irrigation practices,” says
Mehboob. “We need to increase water conservation, so when we have surplus of
water we are able to store it and in times of scarcity be able to use it more
efficiently. Demand management of water resources is what is required.”
However,
while policies are being drafted since almost a decade now, identifying a
plethora of ways in which the effects of climate change can be minimized or
dealt with, no concrete actions are seen by the state as yet. Pakistan is now
one of the worst casualties of climate change – making it imperative that the
matter is not just discussed in theory but is strictly followed through at the
implementation level as well.
This
article originally appeared on MIT Tech Review Pakistan and has been reproduced with
permission.
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