CPEC and
the Indian concerns
Dr Shabir
Choudhry 21 December 2017
Prevailing view in the Indian security circles is that, CPEC, apart from
other motives, has hidden agenda to encircle India to endanger its security and
trade routes.
Of course, with that they feel that the CPEC will go through a territory
of Gilgit Baltistan, which is disputed and which they claim belongs to India. If
the CPEC is completed as planned, it may enable China to station their troops,
and strengthen their grip over these areas, a big chunk of which was illegally
given to China by Pakistan in 1963.
India doesn’t like Jammu and Kashmir dispute to be discussed at any
international platform. Those who claim that so and so conference was funded by
India need to understand that, unlike Pakistan, Indian policy for many decades
has been to keep the Jammu and Kashmir dispute on the back burner; and avoid
its publicity in any form or shape.
Indian policy makers feel the CPEC can ‘internationalize’ the Jammu Kashmir dispute; and will enable China
and Pakistan to extend their influence in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.
Areas of Gilgit Baltistan were part of
the former Princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. On 22 October 1947, despite
Standstill Agreement, Pakistan attacked to capture Kashmir. The Maharaja Hari
Singh was left with no alternative, but to accede to India in order to save
life, liberty and property of the people; however, this accession had to be
ratified by the people.
On strength of this treaty, India call
Gilgit Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir as its ‘territory’. Bitter fact,
however, is that just like Pakistan abandoned Bihari people in East Pakistan;
India also practically abandoned these areas and left the people at the mercy
of Pakistani establishmnent.
If India, in accordance with terms of
the treaty had used its military muscle and had driven the raiders out of Jammu
and Kashmir territory, then they would have had access to Central Asia via Wah
Khan strip. It appeared they were satisfied with what they had under their
control, and that is why Zulfqar Ali Bhutto and Mrs Indira Gandhi changed Cease
Fire Line in to Line of Control in the Simla Agreement, practically
acknowledging that what is under Pakistan belongs to them. It becomes apparent
that views and sentiments of the people of Jammu and Kashmir state did not
matter to rulers of India and Pakistan.
While speaking to a seminar in New Delhi, Prime Minister
Narendra Modi said: “Only by respecting the sovereignty of countries
involved, can regional connectivity corridors fulfil their promise and avoid
differences and discord.”
However, critics point out that if India was so concerned about its ‘territory’,
then why no issue was raised by India when Quadrilateral
Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA) was initiated in 1995. The QTTA was a
transit trade deal involving four countries, China, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and
Kazakhstan; and had to go through Gilgit Baltistan.
May be Indian establishment regarded the QTTA an economic
trade route and not a project planned to encircle India. The CPEC and control
of Gwadar will enable China, and to some extent Pakistan, to influence the
Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, which is detrimental to interests of many
countries, including India. The choking of Strait of Malacca will not be
effective because of the CPEC and the Chinese control of Gwadar and other
string of Pearls.
It must be pointed out
that Gulf of Oman is the world’s busiest shipping route; and India’s more than
two-thirds petroleum imports pass through this. Pakistan has leased Gwadar Port
to China for 40 long years. It is believed that Gwadar has already become China’s
naval outpost with ability to threaten India’s economic, energy and security
interests.
A Swedish think tank, Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute, also asserts that India’s apprehension on the CPEC includes
fear of ‘internationalization of the Kashmir dispute and the growing
influence of China in the Indian Ocean’.
Also, Indian policy
makers fear that because of the CPEC and huge Chinese investment, China’s role
will become more pro Pakistan; and Gilgit Baltistan, a roof of the world, can
become a military base of China which can have serious defence and strategic
ramifications.
To counter the CPEC and to overcome Pakistan’s refusal to
allow transportation of the Indian goods to Afghanistan, India also initiated
its own strategies, which include development of Iranian Port of Chabahar and
Air Cargo Service to Afghanistan.
Both India and Iran
can make effective use of the Chabahar port. Iran can export goods to India and
to Asia Pacific region. Chabahar Port is about 843 nautical miles from Mumbai,
India’s commercial hub; and India can use that to access the markets of Central
Asia via Afghanistan. Goods from the Chabahar Port will be transported by
road to Zaranj city, in Nimruz province of Afghanistan, which will be linked to
a highway built by India in 2009.
This route will also
give Afghanistan access to the Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Furthermore, if this
route becomes fully functional, it can take away some of the shine from the
CPEC; and Pakistan’s pride that it controls strategic gateway.
If all countries of
the region work in good faith and in partnership, then the Gwadar and Chabahar
Ports can become sister ports. If rivalry and animosity continues, then in an
atmosphere of tension and confrontation, it can become a battleground,
resulting in death and destruction and economic slowdown of many countries.
Writer is a political analyst, and author of many
books and booklets. Also, he is Chairman South Asia Watch, London and Director
Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhr
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