CPEC will be a mega
disaster, Dr Shabir Choudhry.
Text of speech in a
conference on CPEC in the Royal
Asiatic Society on 15th December 2017.Title: CPEC, Diplomatic debt-trap or
economic game-changer for South Asia?
We are here to discuss China Pakistan Economic
Corridor. Some citizens of Pakistan, due to disagreements with the project,
call it ‘China Punjab Economic Corridor’. Anyway, let us call it CPEC. If the
CPEC was to empower people of Gilgit Baltistan, people of Pakistan, including
people of Balochistan, I would have wholeheartedly supported it. Sad and bitter
fact is, the CPEC has all the ingredients to bring disaster to all the areas
mentioned, and for the entire region.
Surely it will make some more millionaires in
Pakistan and many more in China; and I am not interested about empowerment of
the rich few. I want to see what is there for the ordinary people.
Madam Chair, this is my book on CPEC. No matter how
many times I say it is a Bible, it will still remain a book on the CPEC. However,
there are two similarities: both are books and both are for the human beings to
read.
Similarly, no matter what Pakistan and China say, the
CPEC is not an economic project. It has many aspects and dimensions. Of course,
it has economic aspect as well; but the salient parts are hidden and have great
geo political and strategic significance.
Strategic experts say, don’t look at the intentions
of your enemy, look at his ability, because intentions can change any time.
Let me give you an example. Pakistan is a country
with nuclear weapons and very good delivery systems. In the process of making
nuclear weapons and various delivery systems; and establishing a command and
control system they must have provided employment to tens of thousands of
people. Does that mean the Pakistani nuclear programme was economic in nature,
because it provided employment to so many people; and still so many people are
employed to take care of them?
Madam Chair, some people claim the CPEC has a strong imperialist agenda.
Mr Allah Baksh, who belongs to Gilgit Baltistan
writes in his article, ‘CPEC a recipe for mega disaster’ writes and I
quote:
‘Students who came out on streets dubbed the project
as an illegal attempt to grab Gilgit and see it as “Road to ghulami or slavery
for Gilgit Baltistan… Protesters across Gilgit suspect that the project was
merely a ruse by China, in collusion with Pakistan, to take over their land and
home…Diplomacy and peaceful negotiations are similarly unknown to decision
makers in Pakistan. It is therefore, difficult to digest that CPEC, which is an
integral part of China’s mega dream of One Belt One Road, fig leaf to expand
its military and economic influence over Asia and Europe; the mission is to
make China the next United States of America.’ Unquote.1
Mushtaq Mughal, a journalist and political analyst
from so called Azad Kashmir, while talking about Pakistan’s attempts to change
legal status of Gilgit Baltistan to satisfy Chinese concerns said: ‘Pakistan
has no right to encroach territory of Jammu and Kashmir State. It will be
considered territorial aggression and back stabbing. Morally and legally
Pakistan will be exposed.’
Dr S Akbar Zaidi, a Pakistani scholar and author of
two brilliant books on Pakistan, while speaking as a keynote speaker in a
conference organised by a Think Tank, Calcutta Research Group said and I quote:
“CPEC is a part of China’s One Belt One Road initiative to
expand its influence in the world and Pakistan is just the geographical space
used by Beijing to reach the warm waters of the Persian Gulf. But in the
process, Beijing blueprint will ensure complete control over Pakistan…It is
indeed a game changer, but not in the way our ruling classes have projected it
to be. It will enslave Pakistan and undermine its sovereignty”. Unquote. 2
Pakistan’s ruling elite has a long
history of taking dictations from powerful allies. They accepted American dictation
in certain aspects of domestic and foreign policy because of military help and
dollars; but because it is not part of the topic I leave that out. However, I
want to add that apart from America, Britain, Saudi Arabia and even tiny United
Arab Emirates have many times influenced Pakistan’s domestic and foreign
policies.
Sadly, this role, to a large extent, is
taken over by China. The Pakistani ruling elite is obsessed with idea of the
CPEC. China is not only making huge investment in Pakistan; they also know how
to influence and manipulate Pakistan’s civil and military elite. The CPEC will
further strengthen China’s position and enable Beijing to use Islamabad to
advance its agenda in the region and beyond.
Dr Zaidi blames the Pakistani ruling
elite for leading the country down the path of enslavement. He says: After
One Belt One Road gets ready, Pakistan will become China’s colony. 3
Some
analysts fear that Pakistan may become 35th province of China; or may become third special
administrative economic region, like Hong Kong.
It will be pertinent
to add that a Pakistani
Senator Tahir Mashhadi, Chairman of the Standing Committee on Planning and
Development, described the CPEC corridor “another East India Company.” 4
I am sure I don’t need to explain role
of the East India Company.
Madam Chair
The CPEC will start
from a less developed region of China, which in view of many local people is
occupied territory; and an armed insurgency is going on there, that allegedly
gets support of Jihadi warriors based in some parts of Pakistan, especially
FATA.
From there the CPEC
enters Gilgit Baltistan, a region which is part of the former Princely State of
Jammu and Kashmir; and is currently occupied by Pakistan. Pakistan gifted
around 2000 sq miles of Gilgit Baltistan territory to China in 1963, that China
can link it with Aqsai Chin which was occupied in 1962 war with India.
I know many citizens
of Jammu and Kashmir State are angry on Pakistan’s ‘generosity’. They should
realise that good friends do exchange gifts to express goodwill and solidarity.
Pakistan gave that piece of land which did not legally belong to them to win
China’s friendship. Now, to strengthen its illegal
occupation Pakistan is allowing Chinese troops and secret agencies to be stationed
in Gilgit Baltistan.
From Gilgit
Baltistan the CPEC will enter a Pakistani province of KPK, and will end in
Balochistan, which many local people claim is occupied by Pakistan. Some Baloch
armed groups are fighting to get independence from Pakistan. The CPEC will
enable China to:
1.
Develop its underdeveloped region;
2.
Use its surplus production, apart from
cement, to use it for construction of the CPEC projects; and ensure that its
economy does not slow down;
3.
Have military and secret agencies
stationed in Gilgit Baltistan, a territory which is disputed, and which is full
of natural resources;
4.
Control of Gilgit Baltistan will
enhance China’s military position because these areas have a tremendous
strategic significance;
5.
Spread network of its secret agencies
in various other parts of Pakistan;
6.
Crack down on jihadi warriors who
travel from this region to fight in Kashgar;
7.
Play significant role in affairs of
Afghanistan;
8.
Regulate many aspects of the Pakistani
economy to suit its agenda;
9.
Control 9 Special Economic Zones spread
in various parts of Pakistan – there is one in Gilgit Baltistan. Only
Chinese companies will be allowed to market their goods, which means these
Special Economic Zones will become Chinese enclaves within Pakistan.
10.
Lease thousands of acres of fertile
Pakistani land in Gwadar and elsewhere;
11.
Exploit and control Pakistani politics and
society through various mechanisms, including media, irrigation and cultural
domination.
12.
Control the Gwadar port and take 91% of the
profits for forty years; Pakistan will only get 9%;
13.
All the Chinese investment is 100% safe, as
Pakistan has given them sovereign guarantees. This means, Pakistani government
will pay back the agreed profit to the various Chinese banks and companies;
14.
China will invest 56 billion dollars
and in 30 years China will receive 90 billion US dollars.
15.
Use Gwadar port as a naval base, which
will enable China to influence sea transport and politics of the Arabian Sea and
the Indian Ocean;
16.
Link with other ‘string of pearls’ and advance the
Chinese agenda of controlling the world economic order;
17.
Use the CPEC as an alternative supply
route, if there is a problem in the South China Sea, and a possible blockade of
Strait of Malacca;
There are mutual
benefits to both China and Pakistan, which are:
· With
the Chinese help, Pakistan will be able to crush the Baloch armed rebellion;
and both countries will be able to benefit from the huge natural resources of
Balochistan;
· With
presence of the Chinese troops and secret agencies, Pakistan will feel assured
that there will be no Indian military adventure in Gilgit Baltistan;
· This
situation is ideal for Pakistan to silence all the voices of dissent inside
Gilgit Baltistan; and even change the legal status of these areas;
· Because
of huge Chinese investment in so called Azad Kashmir and in Pakistan; and with
presence of Chinese troops, India will be deterred to start a major military
offensive.
impediments to the CPEC
1.
Pakistan’s weak economy;
2.
Economic competition from Chahbar Port;
3.
India’s Air Cargo service
to Afghanistan;
4.
Security of the CPEC route and
employees;
5.
Instability in Balochistan,
Afghanistan, KPK and Gilgit Baltistan.
Countries which
should be worried about the CPEC:
Iran, India,
America, UAE, and other Gulf States, many other countries of South East Asia
and Europe.
Many Pakistani
economists strongly fear that the CPEC will be economic disaster for Pakistan.
Pakistan’s exports are down, and foreign exchange sent
by overseas Pakistani and Azad Kashmiri employees is also down because tens of
thousands of workers have been sent back from the Middle East, as I predicted
last year. This means on top of other repayments; the Pakistani economy will
have to cater for additional 3.7 billion US dollars per annum to pay the CPEC
loans.
Muhammad Ishaq, a leading industrialist and a Director of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Board of Investment and Trade in conversation with Asia
Times said, and I quote:
“There is
absolutely nothing in the CPEC for the local trade and industry; even the
labour is coming from China, which will cause a steep escalation in the
operational cost of the project…CPEC will
be a big disaster for Pakistan in the long run.” Unquote 5
People of KPK, Balochistan and Gilgit Baltistan are still angry with the
benefits coming from the CPEC. Mr Said Alam
Mehsud, head of Pakhtunkhwa Ulasi Tehrik, while talking about the official
statement of the Chief Minister of KPK asserted that:
“We
have not won our share in CPEC as claimed by the Chief Minister. We will not
accept the ‘Punjabi corridor’ or the decisions made by the Chief Minister along
with the Chinese government in Beijing.” 6
With the growing
political and economic instability, there is no way the Pakistani economy can
pay back the loans with such high interest rates. This could mean Pakistan may
end up ceding some more land from Gilgit Baltistan to China; or making some other
substantial concessions to the Chinese.
Madam Chair, how can
I support a project which will exploit and oppress our people in Gilgit
Baltistan; which will add to our problems and which may change legal status of
this disputed territory? Furthermore, which is opposed by local people of
Balochistan and KPK?
According to Senator
Murtaza Wahab, Member Senate Finance Committee said on 14 December 2017:
· Pakistani
External loan is 85 Billion;
· Pakistani
exports dropped from 24 billion to 19 billion US dollars.
· Imports
are 51 billion, net deficits of 32 billion; and on top Pakistani economy has to
pay 3.7 billion annually for the CPEC.
Writer is a political analyst, and author of many books and
booklets. Also, he is Chairman South Asia Watch, London and Director Institute
of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhr
References:
2.
Economic Times, June 12, 2017.
3.
Ibid
4.
Ibid
5. May 1, 2017, F. M. Shakil
6.
The Express
Tribune, May 1st, 2017.
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