Dr Shabir Choudhry's blog: Pakistan needs to live in a real world. Dr Shabir Choudhry

Pakistan needs to live in a real world. Dr Shabir Choudhry

London 28 July 2018

Most Pakistanis are led to believe that “Pakistan is here to stay forever.”

Their rationale is that Pakistan was established in holy month of Ramadan and on most holy day (27^th Ramadan) therefore, ‘there is no power on earth which can undo Pakistan.’

Perhaps these people don’t realise that strength of ideology of Pakistan was tested in 1970/71, and it was shattered. Despite lofty claims, Pakistan was defeated and suffered the biggest surrender in human history. Eastern wing of Pakistan became Bangladesh and is thriving. In the remaining Pakistan, there is rampant corruption, injustice, oppression and insurgencies are going on to get independence.

Countries do not survive because of a common religion. There are 57 Muslim countries; and some of them are fighting each other. Despite having the same religion, the all have separate existence. Some of them have different sects, different history, different culture, different interests, and different friends and foes.

It is becoming apparent that the Pakistani elite and the people won’t understand these facts until it becomes too late. They are stubborn and short-sighted. Instead of solving the problems they face as a result of their inefficiency, bad governance, nepotism, corruption, injustice and oppression, they always look for conspiracy theories to blame other countries.

With this mind-set and approach, how can they face challenges of the 21^st century, and solve complex national and international problems. Pakistanis claim, ‘We are the most resilient nation’. Maybe they are resilient, but is that sufficient to make progress, and compete with other countries who have dedication, vision and clearly thought out strategies.

You can fool some people by saying we have this problem because of so and so country. Please tell me, on instructions of which country people of Pakistan do all the bad things which are damaging health of children, old and weak? Which foreign country tells them to mix water in milk and sell out of date and fake medicines? Does Israel or India tell them to sell donkey meat and other contaminated meat of dead animals? Which foreign secret agency tells Pakistani officials to take bribe to do something for which government pays them to do it anyway?

Come on people, enough with this nonsense. Stop this blame game to divert attention from your bad governance and corruption ridden society, which has torn apart social and political structure of Pakistan.

On issue of conspiracy theories, A Kiyani in her tweet on 28 July 2018 stated:

Chief Justice says, Water crises in Pakistan is an international conspiracy. Most of the people would believe him because we just love conspiracy theories and shifting blames. We think we are so important to world that all intelligence agencies in world are busy plotting against us’. 1

Husain Haqqani, a distinguished writer and political analyst, who is currently Director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC, and was also Pakistan’s Ambassador to America, in his recent article wrote:

‘the generals — and now their ‘elected’ protégés — need to understand that the country’s low literacy, low exports, and high infant mortality are not the result of actions of Pakistan’s enemies or even the consequence of politicians’ corruption. Some of Pakistan’s domestic policy failures are the product of the military’s national security policies. 2

Husain Haqqani, also confirms this view that there was rigging in the elections, and that around 371,388 troops were sent, ‘ostensibly on security duty’, and that the men in uniform were not worried being ‘photographed violating the sanctity of secret ballot or telling the polling staff what to do’. He also confirms that the ‘Polling agents were not provided signed returns and were even turned out of polling stations in some places’.

Who can question the actions or wisdom of men in uniform, especially those who don’t hesitate to silence critics by use of gun, as a result, many famous Media Houses have decided to call the elections ‘fair’ and ‘clean’. Some journalists, however, said we had no option but to say this.

New government and new challenges

Despite many tags and shortcomings, the new leader who is ‘certified Sadiq and Ameen’ – honest and trustworthy- will soon form a government in Islamabad. Let us forget for a minute that he failed to perform well in KPK Province; and also, forget that he will become Prime Minister with blessings of the powerful establishment.

We know what challenges are there for him. Does he know all this? Has he got the ability and know how to deal with these challenges? Imran Khan needs to know that Nawaz Sharif did this, and Zardari did that will not help to resolve Pakistan’s problems which require urgent attention. He needs to formulate his policies and present a programme of action, rather than accusing his predecessors.

He was ardent critic of metro bus project, and ridiculed it by calling it a ‘jangla bus’. He insisted that people don’t need these big projects and infrastructure. Later on, when he looked at its benefits and how people were benefitting from it in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, he tried to do the same in Peshawar, and miserably failed. Should we blame some foreign power for this failure or accept that the team which tried this did not have the required experience.

As an ‘opposition leader’ he fiercely opposed various projects related to the CPEC. Also, he demanded transparency in these projects. I agree with him on this point, all the projects must have a system of accountability and transparency.

After becoming Prime Minister of Pakistan, is Imran Khan going to roll back these projects? No. He won’t be allowed to do that, even if he wanted to. Pakistan and the Pakistani elite needs the CPEC, rather desperately. He opposed the CPEC mainly because Nawaz Sharif was spearheading it, and getting credit for all that. With help of ‘allies’ Imran Khan ‘staged frequent protests that caused projects associated with the corridor to be delayed’.

The mega project of ‘Orange train’ was also delayed for 15 months due to court appeals; and because courts reserved the decision. The court made a judgement on the matter, but did not announce it. Imran Khan, famous for his U turns, said his target was Nawaz Sharif and not the CPEC. It is believed that once in office, Imran Khan will try to behave like a ‘good boy’ to assuage Beijing and Rawalpindi.

As an irresponsible leader who luckily enjoyed superstar status was at liberty to say anything, make U turns and get away with almost everything. Once in office, he will learn how difficult it is to govern and satisfy all stakeholders. He knows he had difficulty even managing his own party; and miserably failed to hold an election within the party.

In his victory speech, Imran Khan referred to the CPEC as a “huge opportunity” to attract investment into Pakistan. Has the CPEC become ‘huge opportunity’ after he has become the Chief Executive, or was it always a ‘huge opportunity’, and Imran Khan either didn’t know or was not ready to acknowledge it.

Critics of the CPEC has always expressed their scepticism on potential rewards and disadvantages. Among the critics are some Pakistani economists, and experts of the IMF who think Pakistani economy is unable to pay instalments of the CPEC loans on top of the existing financial commitments. The result will be a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund and social and economic problems for Pakistan.

Andrew Small, an expert on China Pakistan relations associated with the German Marshall Fund, said if Pakistan has to obtain a new bailout package from the IMF, ‘the energy projects would be among the ones with question marks around them’, because of enormous obligations and expenditures to the Pakistani government. 3

In opinion of Andrew Small, in worst case scenario the upgrading of railway from Karachi to Lahore could also become a victim, or its terms may be re- negotiated.

In my opinion, this 8-billion-dollar project is of immense importance and it is very unlikely that the government will abandon this. The new government may halt or modify other projects, but will make every effort to complete this project because of its importance.

Naubahar Sharif, who is researching on the CPEC in the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, thinks Imran Khan will try to enhance his popularity by demanding more transparency in order to provide information to the people that they can ‘judge whether this is the right thing for Pakistan to do’. 4

China as a money lender, and a country with so much at stake with the construction of the CPEC, always like to keep plan B. They always have manoeuvrability to cope with conceivable changes when there is a change of government, or other difficulties. Sometimes a new leader has new ideas or priorities. However, in case of Pakistan, no matter who is in the Prime Minister House, the CPEC will continue.

We know Malaysia halted development of projects financed by China, but Pakistan is not Malaysia; Pakistan is much weaker economically. China is too entrenched in Pakistan; and the country is not in a position to say no, especially when relationship with Washington is frosty and Pakistan is on the grey list.

In view of the above situation, analysts like Naubahar Sharif think, “CPEC is vital to the country’s economic prospects, and is not something to be cancelled or ripped apart overnight”. 5

Who should be boss?

Who should be boss in Pakistan, that is the fundamental question in Pakistan. Most of Pakistan’s problems emanate from this simple and crucial question.

Who would be ultimate boss in Pakistan, in a way, was decided in October 1947, when all powerful civilian leader Mohammed Ali Jinnah ordered his army Chief General Gracey to attack Jammu to cut off India’s supply line reaching Kashmir. General Gracey, not only refused to implement this order, but also asked Mr Jinnah to withdraw it. My Jinnah had to swallow this bitter pill, may be first time in his life made a U turn, and withdrew his order.

Whoever has openly challenged might of the Pakistani army has suffered; and in some cases, lost his life, exiled or was put behind bars. However, there are open voices in support of the civilian rule, but army always finds some politicians to become their foot soldiers, hence direct or indirect army rule continues.

After the July 2018 election, Senator Hasil Bizenjo (@hasilbizenjo) tweeted: ‘It's about time that we decide that whether government in Pakistan shall be run by the intelligence agencies or the electable’.

Husain Haqqani writes:

The Pakistani military obviously wants a civilian façade in the form of an ‘elected’ government that follows the military’s dictates on issues such as policy towards India, Afghanistan, Jihadi terrorism, and relations with China and the US. It does not want a genuinely popular civilian politician in power, backed by an electoral mandate, and certainly not one that might alter the country’s overall direction. 6

Husain Haqqani thinks Nawas Sharif abandoned his ‘ultranationalist, anti-India narrative’, because he recognised the need to promote peace in the region to accomplish his economic agenda. Nawaz Sharif’s change of mind led ’to a breach in his relations with the establishment’.

Husain Haqqani thinks, ‘Imran Khan is not Nawaz Sharif. He is 65-years-old and might opt for not challenging the short-sighted generals even after (or rather, if) he recognises the futility of their obsessions. He could be content with being Prime Minister and manage some aspects of government, without confronting the generals over altering the country’s course’. 7

In order to remain in office, Imran Khan will not dare to interfere in policy areas which are close to heart of the army establishment. It means the slogan of ‘change’ will remain a slogan. If Imran Khan dares to come out of his shell, he will also face plight of the other civilian Prime Ministers.

This also means, the CPEC projects will continue without any major changes.

Imran Khan’s talk on Kashmir

It was good to see Imran Khan talking about problems of Kashmir. I wish he had pledged to stop sending armed warriors to Kashmir who go there with intention of committing violence and terrorism in name of Jihad. How can he expect to resolve the problems of people of Kashmir if old policies which brought havoc to Kashmir and the people continue? May be his new bosses did not allow him to talk about sending armed militants in Kashmir.

I also wish if he had said something about the plight of people of Gilgit Baltistan, and people of so called Azad Kashmir. These people are also part of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir; and they are also suffering because of forced division, occupation and economic and political exploitation.

Again, the brave new leader was too afraid to say anything to annoy his new bosses. This means we will all have ‘old wine’ in a new bottle with a new label.

Writer is a renowned writer and author of many books. He is also a senior leader of UKPNP and Chairman South Asia Watch, London.

Email: Drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com Twitter: @Drshabir

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