My presentation in International conference on ‘Chinese intrusion in Ladakh- Jammu and Kashmir. New Threats and Challenges to Peace and Security in the South Asian Region’.
The Conference arranged by UNITED KASHMIR PEOPLE`S NATIONAL PARTY (UKPNP) on Wednesday 24 June 2020
Mr Chairman, friends and colleagues Salam to all of you.
Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte once said:
“China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will move the world.”
What he meant was to let this giant sleep, because if he wakes up there will be trouble for the region and the world.
Sadly this giant woke up some decades ago, and many of the problems of our region and world can be attributed to policies of this giant.
During this apparent sleep, China suffered humiliation, and degradation of various kinds. However, for some decades the rulers of China have started to assert China at the centre-stage of the world politics.
No country can become great without economic muscle, and many wars in the world are started because of economic reasons. With help of unprecedent economic growth and careful planning, China is emerging as a new Superpower, with intention to play a leading role in the world politics. Slowly, but surely they are asserting themselves in many countries, and especially in Asia and its peripheries.
China is on a mission to build a new kind of empire, which will be different to the empires of the past. China does not use gun boat diplomacy in its zeal to build an empire; rather they use their economic muscle, and stringent conditions attached to loans they provide to vulnerable client countries. Also, they use coercion, cajoling and diplomatic skills to achieve their targets.
It was evident many years ago that China will not be able to sustain its economic growth. When things start going wrong, signs of this become visible not only to the local experts, but also to the international experts.
When I anchored a TV programme in 2014 in London, I pointed out that China will not be able to maintain this economic growth. My guests disagreed with me.
Anyhow, economic slowdown generally result in flight of capital; and international investment stops. The scale of the problem can be judged by this fact that in 2016, an estimated one Trillion US Dollars were taken out of China. At that time China’s GDP was ten Trillion US Dollars.
To counter the economic slowdown and other challenges, China initiated the CPEC and One Belt One Road; which were designed to boost China’s economy. The ruling elite of China decided to use cement and steel production and the Chinese money to build infrastructure in other countries. Many countries got trapped in this debt trap, including our neighbour, Pakistan.
Mr Chairman
With this short background, I want to examine China’s recent intrusion in Ladakh, a region which is legal and constitutional part of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir.
After the imperialist attack by Pakistan to capture Kashmir on 22 October 1947, the Ruler of Jammu and Kashmir was forced to seek help from India, which was only provided after he agreed to accede to India.
Many citizens of Jammu and Kashmir regard the entire forcibly divided State of Jammu and Kashmir disputed, however, the fact remains that this region is administered and controlled by India. It is India’s responsibility to protect this region, and drive out all the invaders form Jammu and Kashmir, and ensure that life, liberty, honour and property of all citizens is protected.
Current India and China trade
It is not the first time that China and India are squabbling. To some, it is on - going thing, which erupts from time to time; and for some it is a normal practise in disputed areas. Remember, Ladakh is not the only disputed region between China and India.
Despite their disagreements and stand offs along the Line of Actual Control, their trade continues unhindered. According to CNN, the trade between China and India in 2019 was:
· 87 billion US Dollars;
· Chinese investment in India is 26 billion US Dollars;
· In the field of Telecom, China is a big player in India;
· Four out of five big companies which sell smart phones in India, are Chinese;
· These companies are: Realtime, Opo, Vivo and Xiomi;
· In 2019, these four companies have earned 16 billion US dollars;
· 95% of trade of Xiomi is with India.
Main focus of both countries is economic growth, and both want to avoid a disastrous military clash that can ruin their economies. In nutshell, the Chinese intrusion in Ladakh is not related to economic interests.
Mr Chairman, Other possible reasons for the Chinese intrusion
Whenever legitimacy and power of the ruling elite is questioned, or they feel they need to divert attention of the people, they start boosting nationalism to control dissent and muster support of the people.
In this context, some people claim China is facing many domestic and international challenges, and a war like situation can help to divert attention from those problems and muster support by drumming up the Chinese nationalism.
China has serious challenges of international magnitude in the South China Sea. There are serious problems with economy, with Belt and Road Initiative and the CPEC. Also there are serious challenges in Hong Kong and in various parts of China.
India also has a number of domestic and international challenges. Therefore, a war like situation suits both countries, as long as it does not escalate in to a full scale war.
The Chinese experts assert that this war like situation developed because of the Indian foreign policy, and support of America in the New Cold war between China and America.
Global Times, a state owned Chinese daily in its recent report advised India, ‘not to engage and get embroiled in the larger US - China confrontation’, as that could be ‘detrimental for the Indian economy and its interests in the region’.
A section of policymakers in China think the ‘present Sino-Indian standoff is an outcome of India’s willingness to toe the U.S. line on China, rather than one of many border disputes that have emerged between the two countries since the demarcation of territories after the Sino-Indian war in 1962’.
The Chinese experts advise India to formulate their China policy independent of America, that both countries can resolve the issues diplomatically and establish peace in this region.
Mr Chairman, we need to look at the Chines game plan.
In my opinion, China is playing a dangerous game. While there can be some merit in all of the reasons pointed above, I think China has other motives to assert its claim and invade a territory that does not belong to them.
As noted above, Ladakh is part of Jammu and Kashmir, and the Security Council Resolution of 13 August 1948, allowed India to maintain its troops in the areas of Jammu and Kashmir under their control. It means, in the eyes of the international community, the presence of the Indian troops in that region is legal and it is their responsibility to protect these areas.
India was building some roads in Daulat Beg Oldi strategic camp area to strengthen their defences. This was known to the Pakistani and the Chinese intelligence. They thought if the new infrastructure is built as planned, that could help India to attack Siachin and Gilgit Baltistan, and possibly take over this region in future.
That was a nightmare scenario for both Islamabad and Beijing. Surely both of them have economic and strategic interests attached with this region. If India was to take over Gilgit Baltistan that would have been a very serious blow to the interests of Islamabad and Beijing.
The Indian takeover of Gilgit Baltistan could have throttled the CPEC and cut off the land access between China and Pakistan. Fearing this looming threat, the Chinese intrusion was a pre-emptive measure to stop India completing its planned infrastructure.
It should be noted that India was building this infrastructure on their side of the demarcation. China has no right to invade a territory that does not belong to them.
Although India and China under the rules of engagement on the Line of Actual Control, cannot use weapons, still there have been causalities on both sides. It is believed that India has lost twenty soldiers and Chinese causalities is more than thirty.
Despite a number of meetings between Chines and the Indians, the issue has not been resolved yet. China stands by with its claim over the Galwan Valley, and India rejects it. China is determined to establish an observatory post at the side of the Galwan River. The objective of that is to keep an eye on what India is doing or may do in future in this region.
India, for obvious reason, does not agree with that and the disagreement with all its tension and dangers continues. Some people claim that both sides need a face saving. I disagree with that. The territory in question is part of Jammu and Kashmir. It is my territory, and China is not a party to this in any form or shape. They must leave our territory.
It is sad to note that some naïve citizens of Jammu and Kashmir were dancing up and down that China has invaded Ladakh. They were happy that India was punished. These people are anti national, who work against the interests of our motherland – Jammu and Kashmir.
These are the people, who betrayed their oath to the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir, and helped the neighbouring country to attack and invade Jammu and Kashmir in October 1947. As a result of their treachery, Pakistan occupied so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.
India and Pakistan are recognised parties to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, and in presence of these two countries, we people of Jammu and Kashmir are not represented anywhere at the international level.
With these two countries being a party to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute we have suffered since 1947. Just imagine, how difficult it will become if we, in order to strengthen the Pakistani narrative, also make China party to the dispute.
With addition of China, the Jammu and Kashmir dispute will become more complicated, and more difficult to resolve. Surely, it will add to our miseries and suffering; and it will endanger the peace and security of the region.
Mr Chairman, I thank you.
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