China and new realignment in Jammu and Kashmir, Dr Shabir Choudhry

Situation in the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir is more complicated and volatile than at any time since 1947.

Not only our homeland is forcibly divided, but we people of Jammu and Kashmir are deeply divided, and over the past decades, have become more intolerant and aggressive. Sadly, many citizens are opposing unification and independence of the State as it existed on 16 August 1947.

Many openly say their future is with India; and some others say their future is with Pakistan. Many others are more interested in promoting their sub nationalism at the cost of nationalism espoused by nation states.

Those who want Jammu and Kashmir as a separate nation are also divided, as to what will be the ideology of the State. Is an independent Jammu and Kashmir going to a secular and democratic country, or is it going to be an Islamic State like Pakistan pretending to be championing the cause of so called Ummah which is deeply divided and fighting each other.

Role of China

Apart from that, now in 2020, we have a bigger and more dangerous challenge from China, which has also assumed a role of the fourth party to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. The other three parties are:

· People of Jammu and Kashmir – principal party;

· India – a party with some legal title;

· Pakistan – a party because of the de - facto control of Gilgit Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir.

For a long time China was a neutral neighbour. As the Jammu and Kashmir dispute was presented at the international level by India and Pakistan, a narrative of Jammu and Kashmir was absent.

Both countries presented the Jammu and Kashmir dispute as it suited their ‘national interest’, and gradually it got incriminated in the ‘cold war’ politics. This helped Pakistan to employ delaying tactics, and refused to implement the UN Resolutions, which demanded that:

‘The Government of Pakistan will use its best endeavour to secure the withdrawal from the State of Jammu and Kashmir of tribesmen and Pakistan nationals not normally resident therein who have entered the State for the purpose of fighting’. 1

Pakistan’s follies also played an important role in making the Jammu and Kashmir dispute what it is today. It is not seen as an issue that concerns the future of nearly 20 million people, but a territory that is disputed between India and Pakistan.

People say this century will be Asia’s century, where the world will see Asia playing an important part in international relations. Important question is, what do we mean by the rise of Asia? Do we mean the rise and dominance of China?

If that is the case, should we be jubilant or express remorse? I don’t say for a minute the dominance of the West and America was a bliss. We can find many wrong doings associated with their dominance, and condemn them too. However, at least, America and the West cared for their own people.

Whereas, America and the West committed acts of violence, and violated human rights in other countries, they promoted equality, justice and rule of law in their own countries; China, on the other hand, is guilty of committing gross human rights abuses in their own country. If China cannot provide justice, equality and rule of law to their own people, just imagine what they will do to people of other countries.

Therefore, I for one, will not promote or be happy with the rise of China where they can control and influence the lives of people living in other countries.

Unlike the West and America, China is not using gun boat diplomacy to colonise and dominate other countries. China is using its economic muscle to achieve the same; and those countries who have tasted the dominance of China or regretting it now, but they cannot find a way out of this quagmire.

For China and Pakistan, the CPEC is a very important project, because it is part of the Belt and Road Initiative, which they claim is for ‘common development of the two countries’; and it will enhance regional connectivity and prosperity.

The CPEC is crucial to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to build roads, bridges, rail lines, sea ports to expand trade links and strengthen economic and strategic ties with Asia, Africa and Europe. China plans to invest 1 trillion US dollars to accomplish the BRI, and the CPEC is fundamental to this.

In other words, the importance of Gilgit Baltistan should be comprehended in view of the above. The CPEC is fundamental to the BRI, and without stability and control of Gilgit Baltistan there can be no CPEC.

This territory – Gilgit Baltistan, is not legally part of Pakistan. It is part of the former Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir, which is disputed, and India claims it on strength of the Treaty of Accession which the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir Hari Singh signed with India on 26 October 1947.

The only land link China has with Pakistan is through Gilgit Baltistan. In other words, China has invested more than 65 Billion US dollars on various projects associated with the CPEC, even though the access to Pakistan is through a disputed territory.

In view of the above, whether Beijing and Islamabad concede this or not, one can visualise immense pressure of China on Pakistan to legalise these territories. On this situation, Michael Kugelman, South Asia Senior Associate at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, said:

“A perfect storm of domestic and regional factors has given Islamabad a compelling reason to act now…. Islamabad likely saw an opportunity to settle the status of a region that is claimed by India and is envisioned to be a key area of construction for CPEC” 2

Initially the people of Gilgit Baltistan, just like the people of Balochistan, were led to believe that the CPEC will empower the local people and bring employment and prosperity. And just like the people of Balochistan, the people of Gilgit Baltistan cannot see anything for them, apart from exploitation, intimidation, harassment and pollution.

Apart from India and America, there are other countries which do not subscribe to the CPEC or BRI, because they perceive this as a strategic and military initiative, which is designed to promote the Chinese dominance. Through its investment and building of infrastructure in third world countries, China is establishing ‘client states’, or string of pearls, which will be heavily dependent on the Chinese economic, industrial and military help.

Pakistan and China believe that India, with help of America can endanger the CPEC. From time to time, Pakistan and China issue statements that any attempt to jeopardise the CPEC will be defeated. Despite these lofty claims, because of various reasons the work on the CPEC projects is stopped. Critics claim it is because of strong disagreements between the two countries, and some corruption related issues.

Over the last few weeks the Pakistani media and the Pakistan army has reported that Indian secret agencies have formulated some secret plans to sabotage the CPEC. According to these reports, India has allocated a big amount to target and damage the CPEC projects; and that they have recruited ‘700 people to harm the CPEC Projects’.

Already there were suspicions, complaints and differences over many aspects of the CPEC projects, and the last thing they wanted was these threats not only to the projects, but also to the Chinese personnel involved with these projects. The situation forced the Chinese to rethink and take some precautions. Global Times, a mouthpiece of the government said, “Beijing will keep a close eye on how the issue unfolds in the future.”

Ayjaz Wani, a researcher and a scholar with a keen interest in geo politics of the region and the CPEC wrote:

‘Political fragility, increased interference of security agencies and the army establishment in the matters of civilian administration and even CPEC projects have made Beijing rethink on the CPEC’s outcomes’. 3

It must be noted that apart from the security related issues, there are serious differences between the two countries on various matters related to the CPEC. The seriousness of the situation can be comprehended from the fact that the 10^th meeting of the CPEC’s Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) was postponed without a new date because both sides could not agree on the agenda items to be discussed and finalised.

Ayjaz Wani in his recent article, Pakistan: Why has China halted CPEC projects assert:

‘The Chinese officials have demanded deferment of some agenda items and have stalled the JCC meeting. The much-hyped CPEC made progress in the first four years. However, after 2018, political fragility, increased insurgency in Balochistan and other areas, corruption and economic recession in Pakistan has decelerated the progress on nearly all the CPEC projects’. 4

Perhaps, for China this was the last straw, and they decided to halt work on some projects of the CPEC. The Joint Cooperation Committee is the highest decision-making body on the CPEC projects. It is believed that even there are serious differences at the highest level. They could not agree on the future road map of the cooperation and on the issues like Industrial Parks and Special Economic Zones.

The World Bank in 2018, cautioned the countries which were part of China’s One Belt One Road or Belt and Road Initiative about the looming debt risks, infrastructure which may not be economically viable , social and economic problems, nepotism and corruption.

Sadly, all these risks have come true as far as the situation in Pakistan is concerned. There are reports of corruption, mismanagement, disagreements, struggle between state institutions as to who will control which project. Of course in case of Pakistan, it is the Pakistani establishment which has the final say. Some reports suggest that because of political instability and dominance of the establishment:

‘The active and retired top brass of the Pakistan army, who have been appointed on crucial positions on the CPEC projects, have allegedly amassed huge wealth by mishandling the project funds’. 5

Because of rampant exploitation of natural resources of Balochistan, increased presence of the Chinese, and no apparent benefits for the neglected people of Balochistan, the resentment and anger among the local people is increasing fast. Support and sympathy for groups like Balochistan Liberation Army is increasing, which is also a serious matter for the Chinese.

Pakistan, as always is the case, can get away from this by diverting the attention from this core issue. All they have to say is, India is behind all this. They are not even prepared to look at the causes why the local people are angry. It is tried and tested gadget – call it an ‘international conspiracy’, an Indian conspiracy or a ‘Jewish conspiracy’. They want to destabilise Pakistan because we are Muslims, or because we are the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons, and they want to denuclearise us.

The vast majority of Pakistanis and citizens of Jammu and Kashmir happily go along with this narrative. They won’t even try to see why the local people have once again resorted to arms.

Despite all the problems, China still insists that their mega investments and infrastructure will eventually bring political stability in Pakistan, and will make Pakistan economically strong and resilient. Above all, it will boost China’s agenda to dominate world politics with the help of economic dominance; and ensure that China has an alternative route for its goods and energy supplies.

On the issue of legal status of Gilgit Baltistan the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said on 1 November 2020 that he will grant a ‘provisional provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan’. Experts believe that Pakistan will do anything to exploit the resources of Gilgit Baltistan and protect the economic and strategic interests of Pakistan.

Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani diplomat and a Director at the Washington-based Hudson Institute says:

‘The Pakistani state has often preferred to keep its border regions, whether on the Indian or Afghan side, as ungoverned spaces. The Chinese state prefers to keep greater control over border areas’. 6

Pakistan's powerful military likes to have a strong presence in Gilgit Baltistan. Mr Hussain Haqqani further says that the “deeper the Pakistani security presence in the region and the greater likelihood of Chinese security presence as well”. 7

Disillusionment of regions

Once China became a nuclear power and a rising economic and military power contours of world politics, especially in South Asia was bound to change. Pakistan, a demoralised and unstable country with a bleak future was at the mercy of China’s help and support.

The new round of Pakistani sponsored proxy war which started in August 1988, further intensified the divide and competition between the provinces on the Indian side of the divide. Those who espoused militancy did not take anyone from Jammu or Ladakh into confidence. They did not consult this with any of the ethnic minorities, or even the mainstream leadership.

It was not taken as freedom struggle of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, rather it was perceived as a Pakistan backed militancy of some Muslim sections of the Kashmir Valley who wanted to impose an Islamic Shariah on this multi religious, multi ethnic and multi-cultural society.

Because of this and some other reasons, the people of Jammu, Ladakh, liberal minded Muslims and ethnic minorities did not support militancy, and they had to pay a very heavy price for this. In view of these people, the militancy was foreign sponsored, and will be counterproductive because it will divide people and result in extremism, intolerance, violence and terrorism.

Those who advanced this narrative, whether Muslims or non-Muslims, were perceived and treated as ‘anti struggle’, unpatriotic, pro India or Indian agents; and liveable to be eliminated.

Whereas, tens of thousands of people lost their lives, around half million native people were forced out of their homes, seeking shelter in safer areas of the divided State, or they moved to various cities of India.

This uncertainty, chaos and religiously motivated politics and ‘sponsored militancy,’ forced people to be closer to their co-religionists and find protection for their religion and culture.

Many members of ethnic minorities requested New Delhi take some action against these people who were dividing the polity of Jammu and Kashmir on religious lines. The aim of the proxy warriors and fanatics was to promote intolerance, religious hatred and extremism that the Two Nations Theory and the partition of India could be justified

Many worried citizens of Jammu and Kashmir even requested India to make their region a Union Territory, that they can benefit from a ‘direct rule’, instead of living at the mercy of the Valley dominated politics.

Jammu speaks out

Feelings of some citizens of Jammu and Kashmir were so strong that they actively campaigned for the abrogation of the Article 370 and 35 A; and when India did that for their own reasons, these people were over the moon, and they distributed sweets to share their happiness with others.

However, this happiness was short-lived, as their dream converted into a nightmare. A resident of Kathua, Jammu, Raul Sharma was euphoric when Prime Minister Modi ended the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. He and his friends ‘distributed sweets to celebrate’ their happiness.

Many people claimed that ‘most parts of the Jammu division erupted in celebration’, and they hoped that a better day or a new era was to begin. Rahul Sharma, who proudly claimed that he was a ‘hard core Modi supporter’, and he believed Prime Minister Modi that “achhe din” will come for the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

However, nearly fifteen months after that jubilation, Rahul Sharma feels ‘apologetic and disgusted’. In frustration and anger, he said:

“We do not want ‘achhe din. We want ‘buray din’ back. It is for the first time that somebody wants to impose ‘achhe din’ on the people and the people are not willing to accept them.” 8

We told our fellow citizens that despite all the problems we face on both sides of the divide, it is imperative that we endeavour for unification and independence of Jammu and Kashmir. However, it was sad that many people continued to promote pro Pakistan and pro India narratives.

However, it is good to note that people of Jammu have realised that Jammu and Kashmir must stay as one political entity; and that the special status was a mechanism to protect certain rights and keep Jammu and Kashmir united. Raul Sharma further said:

‘The new land laws and the post-August 5 amendments in J&K a human rights violation. “First, it was happening with Kashmiris, now it is happening with the people of Jammu as well.” 9

Apart from Mr Sharma, there are many others who regret supporting the BJP. Tanya Bandral was also a dedicated supporter of the BJP. She also hoped that the changes brought about by New Delhi would be beneficial for Jammu. Tanya holds a Master's degree and teaches students in the vicinity of Jammu, she said:

“I celebrated the move, but I now regret having done so. But 15 months down the line, I feel betrayed. We have been ruined. Our jobs are gone, our land is gone.”

Tanya Bandral further said:

“Now, I realise the revocation of Article 370 was wrong. Although there should have been some amendments to the law, the whole law should not have been scrapped”. She said people are fast realising the mistake they have made. Many say:

“Our eyes have opened, we discuss and conclude that we want Article 370 back. We want all those rights back that were guaranteed by Article 370. All my friends who supported the abrogation, regret their decision now”. 10

A social activist from Jammu, Satish Vidrohi, thinks ‘resentment against the removal of Article 370 was increasing every day’; and that ‘the initial celebration in Jammu was purely owing to the fact that the BJP had exploited the raw nationalistic sentiments and patriotism of the people of Jammu’. 11

Satish Vidrohi, asserts that there is also growing bitterness among right-wing stalwarts of the BJP, but due to fear and some other compulsions they don’t express that in public. He said:

“I have had a lot of closed-door discussions with my right-wing friends and they heartily express their feelings against the abrogation of Article 370”. He gave an example of his father, Vidrohi, who supported the removal of Article 370 throughout, but now he “feels ashamed”. 12

Many political and social activists who supported the BJP narrative, now accuse the activities, of the ‘separatists’, militancy, and subsequent discrimination against regions of Jammu and Ladakh. They acknowledge that the “RSS succeeded in propaganda and distortion of historical facts due to which a lot of ‘pseudo nationalism’ emerged in Jammu.”

Many people supported the BJP and the abrogation of the Special Status believing that it will teach a ‘lesson’ to the people of Kashmir Valley.

Vikas Bhadoriya, an LLM student at Jammu University, said many people expressed happiness on the removal of the Special Status believing that this would create more opportunities for them. He said:

“We thought it would give us opportunities. People thought they would get more security vis-à-vis land and jobs but exactly the opposite has happened.” He said, ‘the people of Jammu want Article 370 back with ‘amendments’. “All the securities under Article 370 should be given back to us to save our identity”.13

A former Minister and President of the Dogra Sadar Sabha, Gulchan Singh Charak, on the abrogation of the special status said, his party welcomed the move. However, he desired a ‘unique model to safeguard the interests of the people of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh’. He said he requested New Delhi for ‘a good model’ and also proposed that they should hold discussions in all three parts of the erstwhile state.

On the issue of new land laws, Gulchan Singh Charak said these laws came as a surprise for the people of Jammu. He said:

“It is a breach of trust as the prime minister and the home minister had given assurances about safeguarding the unique identity of all the three parts of the state.” 14

Charak was arrested almost a fortnight after Article 370 was scrapped when he was scheduled to address a press conference to put forth suggestions for safeguarding the interests of the people in Jammu.

Meanwhile, Rahul Sharma said that he regrets voting for Modi and celebrating the developments on August 5, 2019. “I apologise to myself and the people of Jammu and Kashmir,” he said, and expressed hope for a joint effort by the people of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh for the restoration of Article 370 and safeguards for all the rights of the people.

LOC firing

Is it not strange that India and Pakistan exchange flowers and sweets on the International border, but frequently exchange bullets and bombs on the Line of Control, which divides citizens of Jammu and Kashmir.

Whenever the firing takes place, both India and Pakistan accuse each other for starting the firing. No matter who starts the firing, we the people of Jammu and Kashmir forcibly divided suffer on both sides of the divide.

It is generally agreed by those who have knowhow of the situation that Pakistani army starts the firing when they want to send militants across the LOC to commit acts of violence. Under the cover of the firing, the armed militants cross the LOC and take shelter in specified places.

In my TV programme, one local man from the Neelam Valley confirmed the above. He further revealed that the Pakistani army have their camps in the villages and when there is firing across the LOC, the Indian bombs land in the villages in a response to the mortar guns shelling. 15

According to the media reports of Jammu and Kashmir there were ‘over 4000 ceasefire violations by Pakistan so far this year, which is the highest in the past decade, compared to a total of 3289 violations in 2019’.

Both India and Pakistan not only exchanged heavy shelling on the Line of Control, but exchanged strong words and allegations. It is normal practise that both countries accuse each other for starting the firing.

However, Indian claim is that the new strategy of Pakistan is to use drones and tunnels to continue their proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir. According to a Hindustan Times report, which showed photos of the tunnel from where 4 militants with arms were caught. India claims if these ‘terrorists’ were not apprehended then these terrorists could have caused more damage than the Pulwama terrorist act.

Because these two tunnels were discovered in the Jammu region, it is felt that Pakistan wants to commit acts of terrorism in this region as well. A counter insurgency officer said,

‘Most of these tunnels are dug under fields that are invisible to Indian troops due to tall elephant grass on the Pakistani side. They are dug during the night. Pakistan Rangers are supposed to cut the grass on their side according to the agreements between the two countries. But instead, Pakistan uses this grass to send terrorists and drugs’ smugglers to this side’. 16

The Officer further said:

“Similarly, as Pakistan is finding it difficult to send infiltrators and arms from the [border] fence or open stretches due to the alertness of BSF, it is moving to other methods like tunnels and drones”. 17

A famous Kashmiri English daily published from Srinagar reported on 22 November 2020 said:

‘At about 11.15 am on Sunday, Pakistan initiated unprovoked ceasefire violation by firing with small arms and shelling mortars along the LoC in Nowshera sector of Rajouri’. 18

The report further said:

In another ceasefire violation, the officials said Pakistani Rangers targeted Satpal, Manyari, Karol Krishna and Gurnam border outpost areas at around 9 pm on Saturday, drawing strong and effective retaliation from the Border Security Force (BSF).

Gilgit Baltistan

As noted above, Pakistan wants to annex Gilgit Baltistan, not because they want to empower the local people, or develop the region to bring prosperity; but because that region is full of resources and has great strategic significance. Apart from that, this region is a gateway to the CPEC which has boundless importance for both China and Pakistan.

Pakistan’s control and existence in Gilgit Baltistan is illegal. Under different pretexts and pressures, Pakistan wants to ‘legalise’ their occupation of Gilgit Baltistan. Pakistan needs to understand that their imperialist action will weaken their traditional stand on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, especially in the UN. Furthermore, true face and designs will be exposed; and people will see this action as imperialist.

When the Special Status of Jammu and Kashmir was revoked in August 2019, New Delhi anticipated some serious reaction from the people; and to counter that they imposed a curfew and political leaders and political activists were arrested.

Despite the encouragement from Pakistan and massive propaganda, the expected reaction from the people did not come. Among the reasons include:

· There was a curfew;

· People did not want to be killed or injured;

· There were human rights abuses;

· People did not want to act on the Pakistani propaganda; or to be seen as acting on their behest;

· Some claim the leadership was imprisoned, and there was no one to lead them. This point does not look persuasive, as public anger and sentiments need no leadership, as it happened in America when a black man was killed by white policeman.

Some people think if Pakistan unilaterally changes the status of Gilgit Baltistan, people will rise against this decision. and there are various reasons for that. I don’t agree with this. There can be some protests, but the majority of the people will remain quiet.

It must be noted that the majority of the people are brainwashed, and they will express happiness in hope that the move will bring prosperity and development. It will be some years down the line when they will realise that nothing has changed, if anything, there will be more restrictions, more harassment, more pollution, more exploitation of resources, more settlement of no local people, including the Chinese.

Of course there will be many secret agencies operating here, including agencies of other countries. The Chinese presence will be very visible. During our visit in 2010 we saw a menu and signboards in Chinese. One can visualise what will be the situation now in 2021.

The Pakistani action will have a very serious impact on relations with India. It can even result in some military squabble. Apart from that, it can have some bearing on any future dialogue on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.

If military clashes take place it won’t be between India and Pakistan only. There will be others who will be involved in the fray. This involvement could be direct or indirect. One thing is sure that India may fight a two front war. This could not be only in Ladakh, but elsewhere as well. Don’t forget hotspots near Nepal and especially near Arunachal Pradesh, where anti India insurgency or sentiments are present.

If this region, generally known as chicken neck corridor, is occupied or controlled by some hostile country, there could be very serious consequences for India, as that will sever land communication to these seven States – Seven Sisters.

China and Pakistan could try to instigate some trouble in these states, possibly leading to some political and geographical changes. In other words, stakes are very high, and when a war starts, no one can predict its outcome.

Reference:

1. UN Security Council Resolution, 13 August 1948

2. https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/perfect-storm-could-compel-pakistan-to-change-status-of-disputed-territory-in-kashmir/30968087.html

3. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/pakistan-why-has-china-halted-cpec-projects/

4. Ibid

5. Ibid

6. https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/perfect-storm-could-compel-pakistan-to-change-status-of-disputed-territory-in-kashmir/30968087.html

7. Ibid

8. https://thewire.in/rights/jammu-kashmir-amendments-article-370-bjp

9. Ibid

10. Ibid

11. Ibid