Gwadar is boiling, is the CPEC the reason? Dr Shabir Choudhry. 26 December 2021

Gwadar is boiling, is the CPEC the reason?

Dr Shabir Choudhry. 26 December 2021

Gwadar has witnessed unprecedent protests. Many analysts claim that these protests are because of the serious problems created by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor. China, who has invested billions of dollars in the CPEC, are worried about this political and social unrest.

However, some people are worried because the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has publicly stated that he will pay attention to this matter and resolve problems of the people. In the past whenever he said he would take notice of a matter of public concern, he made a mess of it and added to their problems.

The massive protests in Gwadar which unnerved Islamabad and Beijing were led by Jamat e Islami. It was a kind of victory for the protestors because after 28 days of large protests, Imran Khan’s government, despite strict media control, woke up and decided to listen to demands of tens of thousands of men and women protestors.

Threat of extremism in Gwadar and Balochistan

Whereas it is pleasing to note that the local people of Gwadar may get some benefits or some rights as a result of this four weeks long protest, however, it must also be noted that it is also a victory for Jamat e Islami and its leadership. This ‘victory’ for Jamat e Islami is in a way a victory for the religious and extremist politics, which will surely provide impetus to religious and extremist groups in Pakistan, and especially in Gwadar and Balochistan.

It is difficult not to see a clear right-wing manifestation in the protest, especially when young local women with full ‘hijabi attire’, with only eyes visible, were illustrating strong religious ingredients in the struggle under the banner of Jamat e Islami.

This Protest or sit in of tens of thousands of local people was against ‘illegal trawling, a growing drugs trade and the lack of basic facilities like health and education’. Famous slogans were “Give Gwadar its Rights” and “Haq Ya Shahdat”, meaning rights or Martyrdom.

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This peaceful movement received a big boost when tens of thousands of women and children joined the protest. The protesting men, women, old and young called off their month-long sit-in after many rounds of talks. The pact was signed by Abdul Qudus Bizenjo, Chief Minister of Balochistan and Provincial General Secretary of Jamaat Islami (JI), Maulana Hidayat-ur- Rehman, who was previously added to the Fourth Schedule.

Although Maulana Hidayat Ur Rehman is a local Baloch, his association with the Jamat e Islami, and his status, General Secretary of the religious party in Gwadar, raises many questions and casts doubts on this movement and its ultimate goals.

The history of Jamat e Islami is not that great, because the Pakistani establishment has used the Party many times to advance its agenda at home and abroad. Sadly, the Party leaders don’t express any remorse on what they have done to advance the agenda of the army establishment, rather they take pride that they have served the army to propagandise their domestic and foreign agenda.

In view of the thinking people of Pakistan, especially the liberals who believe that the Jamat e Islami cannot be trusted, as they could be, once again, advancing the agenda of the establishment.

By winning this ‘victory’, and by taking the centre stage in this movement, the Jamat e Islami and their local leaders have established their credentials, as pro people. They have also demonstrated their courage and ability to challenge the might of the State and secret agencies.

Fear is that they can use newly acquired status, and power to promote extremism, and their brand of Islam. This will surely result in sectarian politics which will ultimately divide the people of Balochistan and Gwadar.

There are reports which suggest that Balochistan can be a fertile ground for religious and sectarian politics. The religious or sectarian politics could be used by the Pakistani army and secret agencies to further divide and destroy the Baloch struggle.

Faiz M. Baluch, editor of Balochwarna News, told ‘The Week’, that in Balochistan the “Pakistan army first used military power. Then it used

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disappearances and killings, and now it is the systematic use of religious parties and groups to create religious and sectarian strife and gain power.” 1

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It is in the interest of China and Pakistan to crush and subjugate the Baloch people; and both countries (China and Pakistan) work as a team to discredit and harm the Balochi struggle, and use of religion could be just another strategy.

The Iranian government is also not happy with the Pakistani army using the religious card to advance and protect their internal and external interests. The Indian government is also immensely concerned about use of religion in Balochistan and in other parts of Pakistan, as that can have serious ramifications for India, where religious strife is damaging social fabrics of the society, not to mention religiously motivated violence and terrorism. The Pakistani establishment has a great experience in nurturing Islamist groups and use them as proxies to advance their agenda. There is no reason why they should not do what they have been doing since 1947. It is only logical that they divide the people of Balochistan on political, tribal, regional and religious lines and establish their rule forcefully. It must be highlighted that Balochistan is very important to both Pakistan

and China because of its strategic position, natural resources and the CPEC which ends in Gwadar, and provides China access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. It is natural that both will collude and do everything possible to control this region.

It must be pointed out that Gwadar is in Pakistan’s impoverished province of Balochistan, which is a sparsely populated, mountainous, desert region bordering Afghanistan and Iran. China has been involved in the development of the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea as part of a $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor under Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure project.

Despite the lofty claims of Pakistan, the local residents of Gwadar have long complained that Chinese presence and investment in the area has done very little, if any, to improve their lives, particularly with regards to water scarcity and jobs. Reality is that they face more problems since the inauguration of the CPEC, as they encounter more restriction and fewer rights; and to make matters worse, the Chinese projects have:

‘Robbed them of their primary source of livelihood, fishing, as giant fishing trawlers have come in through the Arabian Sea, resulting in the closure of a majority of fish processing factories.’

The fishermen were protesting against granting fishing rights to trawlers of China and ‘Sindh within the limits of the sea touching Gwadar city’. It must be pointed out that the local people strongly feel that they are deprived of their livelihoods as more than two million people are directly linked with the fishing business in Gwadar.

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The residents of the city also demanded access to clean water, power supply, and a right of movement by removing check-posts which restrict movement of the local people, and create enormous problems for the local people, as they cannot freely move around in their own hometown.

Pakistani narrative

The Pakistani government narrative is that the protesters were not against the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, or against the presence of the Chinese and Pakistani settlers in Gwadar.

This discourse is part of Pakistani propaganda and is designed to obscure facts. This point will be discussed later on.

Anyhow, under some pressure, the Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan, in his tweet said he had taken notice of the very legitimate demands of the hardworking fishermen of Gwadar. “Will be taking strong action against illegal fishing by trawlers & (and) will also speak to CM Balochistan.” In response to this, the Chief Minister of Balochistan,Abdul Qudoos Bizenjo, emphasised that the demands of Gwadar movement were based on human rights, and were part of the incumbent government’s policies. However, he stressed that it was not the responsibility of the Provincial government to provide power supply, as it was the ‘domain of the

federal government, and PM Imran Khan had promised to accept all legitimate demands.’

He further said,

“The provincial government is implementing actions on the demands of the protestors coming under its constitutional realm.”

Enumerating his success, Abdul Qudoos Bizenjo, proudly said:

• Licenses of all liquor stores had been suspended.
• The concerned departments had been directed to resolve the water issues in Gwadar.
• And funds had been issued to the relevant departments.

The Chief Minister further said the provincial government is willing to work with the Federal Government to formulate a joint mechanism to act against illegal trawling. "We will soon present a detailed report to PM Imran Khan on the developments," he mentioned.

He assured the people that his government will ensue:
1. The prohibition of illegal fish trawling,
2. Ending unnecessary Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) check posts,
3. Resumption of border trade,
4. Andendingthetokensysteminlightoftheprotestor'sdemands.

Analyses of the statement.

As far as the statement is concerned it is encouraging. However, practically not much will happen. The Provincial government will not do anything as their hands are tied with various agreements with China, Federal Government and the Pakistani establishment.

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The Chief Minister was very careful with the selection of his words. In point one, he said, ‘prohibition of illegal fish trawling’. Since the Chinese trawlers which fish in the sea near Gwadar do so with permission and understanding of the Pakistani government and under the Chinese pressure, how they will stop them. The Chinese trawlers take away tonnes of fish daily, practically depriving the local fisherman to catch any fish for their families.

These stringent measures and lack of fundamental rights, and their inability to earn sufficient for their families may ultimately force many local people to migrate to other regions where they can live in peace.

Critics may argue that there are no districts within restive Balochistan, where the Baloch people can live in peace, and earn sufficient money to feed their families. In other words, options for the local Baloch people are very limited.

In point two the Chief Minister said, ‘ending unnecessary Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) check posts.’ Who will decide if the check posts and Frontier Crimes Regulations are unnecessary? Surely not the suffering local people. This decision will be made by the secret agencies of Pakistan, Chinese agencies, and the Pakistani administration in Gwadar.

Do I need to point out that in view of the Pakistani and the Chinese secret agencies, and the local Pakistani administration, more stringent measures need to be adopted to keep the local people out and to safeguard the Chinese and the Pakistanis who have settled here at the expense of the local people?

Similarly, in point three and four, the local people will have no say in decision making. The Pakistani administration established here to rule, and the Chinese experts settled here will call the shots, and the local people are only there to suffer and hold protests.

If the local people make too much noise or instigate some kind of resistance or disobedience, they could also face serious trouble. They can be abducted and imprisoned, or in the worst-case scenario, killed in a fake encounter. Their name will be added to the growing list of the missing persons; and their loved ones will spend the rest of their lives protesting, and trying to find out where their husband, son, brother or other relatives have gone.

A Baloch narrative.

Baloch leaders fighting the Pakistani state and their oppression and looting in Balochistan, including Gwadar are not prepared to trust the Pakistani establishment, as they have been ‘betrayed’ by the Pakistani state many times.

While speaking to me, a Baloch political and human rights activist, Munir Mengal said:

‘People who are peacefully protesting in Gwadar want access to clean drinking water. They want a right to life. They have lived in this area for centuries, and their livelihood is fishing. With the help of China, they are deprived to fish and survive. Very soon they will have only one option, migrate from this area and leave this town for the Chinese and Punjabi settlers.’ 2

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Baloch nationalists believe that Balochistan was occupied by Pakistan by violating an agreement. Munir Mengal, President of Baloch Voice Association, said:

‘Pakistani establishment is systematically killing Baloch nationalists, which can be called slow motion genocide of the Baloch people. All those who strive for fundamental rights and seek justice are kidnapped and they become missing persons. Sadly, the list of the missing people is getting longer and longer, and authorities have no concern for the suffering families.’ 3

Holland based Think Tank, European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS) in its newsletter published on 24 December 2021, pointed out that ‘the main demands of the of the Movement included ban on illegal trawling the Arabian Sea, including massive Chinese fishing operations there which the protesters said had rendered the local fishermen and others jobless, access to the coastal areas near the Gwadar seaport, and reopening of the Iranian border, which is a major commercial and trading centre for the local population.’ 4

Position of Courts

Issue of the ‘missing persons’ is a very serious one. In the past, even the Supreme court Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry could not enforce writ of the state or impose the Pakistani laws. The secret agencies were called to the Court, but they did not present the missing persons.

The Islamabad High Court Chief Justice, Athar Min Allah, a very reputable and honest Judge, has now taken up the issue of the ‘missing persons’. The Islamabad High Court directed the Additional Attorney General to take up the missing persons’ cases with the federal cabinet and inform the court about the government’s policy in this regard.

A reputable Pakistani English daily newspaper, ‘Dawn’ stated that the Court has categorically asserted that the issue of the missing person is a test case for the state, which should clarify its position in this matter. The case under consideration relates to missing journalist Mudassar Naaru.

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The court also emphasised the ‘inability or unwillingness of the Commission for Inquiry of Enforced Disappearances (CIED) with regard to doing something concrete about this problem. According to the court, there are thousands of families whose loved ones have gone missing, but no one bothers.’ 5

Chief Justice Athar Minallah, while hearing the petition ‘seeking safe recovery of ‘missing’ journalist Mudassir Mehmood Naaru, observed enforced disappearances gave the impression that the state was behind such a heinous crime.’ 6

During the hearing, the Chief Justice, made a reference to the ‘abduction of Assistant Director of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) Sajid Gondal, remarked that a young man had illegally been taken into custody and was forced to give the statement that he had gone “to the Northern Areas on his own.” 7

According to Daily Dawn, counsel for the family of the missing journalist, Imaan Zainab Hazir-Mazari, contemplated why ‘officials of the spy agency should not be held responsible for the enforced disappearance of any citizen from their respective jurisdiction’.

Conclusion

The CPEC, as I have claimed time and again, in my books on the CPEC and in my speeches that this over ambitious mega project will prove to be disastrous for Pakistan, because the Pakistani economy does not have the capacity; and the Pakistani people do not have ability or even desire to make this work.

Not many people believed in what I and many other wise Pakistanis said and predicted. All those who criticised the CPEC or opposed it were castigated as anti - Pakistan and Indian agents.

However, in 2019, I was contacted by a Pakistani diplomat to discuss some contents of my books on the CPEC. He said what you wrote in 2016, proved to be correct and he wanted to know about my sources.

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Of course, I was not a fool to disclose my sources, however, we had a lengthy discussion in which I asserted that the new government would exacerbate the economy of Pakistan and Pakistan may never taste the fruit of the CPEC. Also, I said, Pakistan will not be able to pay interest on its borrowing, and will end up handing over some strategic assets to China.

The Pakistani establishment installed a wrong man for the job. A stubborn man with tunnel vision, and ego higher than K2 Mountain, and who was a fast bowler and infamous for playboy lifestyle, with no experience in public life or public administration was appointed as a Chief Executive of a nuclear country with a population of 220 million.

Managing 10 players in a cricket match was one thing and managing affairs of a country like Pakistan was a totally different ball game. He started governing Pakistan as if it was a cricket match.

Despite all the help of the establishment, secret agencies, judiciary, allied political parties the man failed in every field of governance. All his lofty claims and hopes of his followers were shattered. He failed to acknowledge his blunders or see the writing on the wall. He thought that because he is smart, a cricket star, and tells lies with confidence; and he has a big team of IT experts who will continue to disseminate fake news, he will be able to weather the political storm and have his way.

We all know how Imran Khan has messed up the economy and political system of Pakistan, and the future looks very bleak. Pakistan’s per capita GDP has reduced from $1482 US Dollars to $1194. What has happened in Gwadar in November and December is only a start.

Pakistan will not be able to honour promises made to the protesters, which will result in more protests leading to extremism and violence. My fear is that the Jamat e Islami Chief in Gwadar may create a situation in which there could be a direct clash with the authorities, which will provide authorities an opportunity to round up ring leaders and crush the movement.

Call it militancy or insurgency in Balochistan, it is contained to a large extent by the Pakistan army, as they have great experience in dealing with these matters. However, the real danger is that the Movement or struggle in Gwadar and Balochistan may be divided on religious and sectarian lines. If

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this happens then it will give a new dimension to the struggle in Balochistan.

If matters are not resolved peacefully and to the satisfaction of the local people of Gwadar and Balochistan, then there is danger of more unrest, instability, and violence in the region. The CPEC and the Chinese and ‘Punjabi’ settlements will always be disliked, opposed, and would be perceived as a ‘legitimate’ target for the militants.

If the authorities decided to only rely on their military might, and gave no importance to dialogue and consultation then there is a serious threat that it can escalate and may lead to some foreign intervention with disastrous consequences.

Reference:

1. https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2021/12/18/as-large-scale- protests-break-out-in-pakistan-gwadar-over-cpec-how-should- india-react.html

2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQMYxbb4U-Y

3. Ibid

4. https://www.aninews.in/news/world/europe/china-concerned-about- escalating-protests-in-gwadar20211225031830/

5. https://thenation.org.uk/2021/12/23/ihc-concerned- overmissing-persons-askgovt-to-explain-policy/

6. Ibid

7. Ibid

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