(This paper on
China –Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Growing Rivalry in the Indian
Ocean". was presented by Sri Lankan journalist and author Latheef
Farook at the two day International Conference on China-Pakistan Economic
Co-operation in Islamabad 14 and 15 March 2016)
In the aftermath of the collapse of
the former Soviet Union in December 1979, United States, Britain, Europe,
Russia and Israel began invading and destroying Muslim countries in the Middle
East and beyond in their drive to create Greater Israel by annexing Syria
and Iraq.
While the west was busy with their
wars, China began peacefully entering African countries, concluding agreements
and undertaking numerous development projects besides finding markets for its
wide range of products.
As a result China’s
trade with Africa which stood at around ten billion dollar in 2002 reached
around 180 billion dollar in 2004. China’s four trillion dollar trade and seven
million barrels of daily oil is transacted through the Indian Ocean sea
route.
Thus the Indian Ocean
is indispensable to China. However there were fears that this sea trade route
can be choked by blocking mainly Malacca Strait by hostile powers.
To overcome this
threat China tied up with its longstanding trustworthy partner- Pakistan
started building an alternate trade route as part of an ambitious 46 billion
dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor-CPEC project.
The CPEC is unique
in the sense that it connects China and Pakistan only. Also it connects China
to the sea through the quickest route. Under this overall program China intends
to build a web of networks such as the Southern Silk Road, the Central Asia
Silk Road, the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and the CPEC.
It could be a pivot
to China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) concept that aims to connect 60 countries
on the Asia and European land mass.
One of them was linking the
strategically important Pakistani port of Gwadar in the Persian Gulf to China’s
Xinjiang region through a vast network of highways and railways, upgrading and
expanding infrastructure and overhauling of the transportation infrastructure,
sea ports, imports oil and gas pipeline. This land route, shortens distance
with the Gulf market by 10,000 kilometers, and it is bound to change the entire
geo politics of the region.
One should not forget that one of the
main reasons why the now collapsed Soviet Union dispatched troops to
Afghanistan was to gain access to warm waters of Persian Gulf.
Thus the
development of the strategically located port of Gwadar and a modern airport
there also bound to raise concern from Gulf sheikhdoms, Tehran, Moscow to
Washington, London, Paris, Tel Aviv and New Delhi.
China also developed its own strategy
for the Indian Ocean by setting up a series of ports in friendly countries
along the ocean's northern seaboard from Pakistan, Sri Lanka and
Bangladesh.
The Chinese
government is also planning a canal across the Isthmus of Kra, in Thailand, to
link the Indian Ocean to China's Pacific coast -- a project on the scale of the
Panama Canal. This could further tip Asia's balance of power in China's favor
by giving China's expanding navy and commercial maritime fleet easy
access from East Africa to Japan and the Korean Peninsula.
Simultaneously China is cultivating
its relations with countries of the region through aid, trade and defense
agreements. One important factor pushing China to build alternative routes is
the fact that Indian navy, soon to be the third largest in the world
after those of the United States and China, will function as an antidote to
Chinese military expansion.
Pakistan
The CPEC will give Pakistani economy
an unprecedented boost as the overall project involves development of ports,
air ports, extensive road and railway networks, oil and gas pipelines linking
Iran and many more.
Pakistan’s only coastline is on the
Indian Ocean and it is vital for trade and energy supply besides preventing
India from dominating the areas closest to Pakistan.
Pakistan is a country
surrounded by many enemies. For example India which played a
decisive role in the breakup of Pakistan in 1971, has its own design on
Pakistan under its Greater India program that covers the entire
South Asia and the India Ocean.
With its ambitious
program to expand its influence on land and sea from Iran to
Thailand, India cannot view CPEC positively.
Recently an Indian comentator said in
a television discussion that Indian border is with Afghanistan. This is
cause for concern especially in view of India’s deep
involvement in Afghanistan with more than a dozen consulate offces
and allegations of arming and funding separatist forces in Baluchsitan.
Already Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi has expressed India’s concern during his visit to China in 2015.
The Indian Foreign Minister, Sushma Swaraj reportedly told Chinese Premier Xi
Jinping that projects passing through Gilgit-Baltistan are
"unacceptable" as they require road construction in territory India
regards as its own.
However Chinese
Premier dismissed the concerns, describing CPEC as a "commercial
project" that would not target any third party.
Meanwhile the growing ties between
India and Israel should be of concern to Pakistan in view of the two countries
declared hostility towards Islam and Muslims.
Bharata Janatha Party,BJP ,one of the
deceptive fronts of Hindu extremist Rashtriya Swayam Sevak,RSS, was
elected to power. RSS’s declared agenda is to turn India into
Hinduraj and openy demand that Muslims either convert to Hinduism or leave the
country.
Israel, on the otherhand, reported to
have spent more than 281 crore Indian rupees to bring to power
BJP led by Prime Minister Mr Narendara Modi, the architect of
Godhra massacre of Muslims.
Thus the growing Indian Israel ties
is deadly threat Pakistan’s very existence.India has now lined up with the
United States,Britain,Europe and Israel polarising the world into two
groups competing for its zone of influence in the india Ocean. The fear that
Gwadar may one day become a Chinese naval base also troubles New Delhi.
United States
One of the biggest Challenges United
states is facing in the world politics is in the Indian Ocean where both China
and India are emerging as the major maritime and economic powers and posing
challenge to US’s decades of hegemony.
It is common knowledge that USA is
manipulating regional states to push countries away from Chinese Camp to
obstruct China’s expansion in the South China Sea as well as in East China Sea.
USA does not want the region to be dominated by any single state because that
would seriously jeopardize USA’s long term economic interests as well as
disturb the balance of power in the region.
This is specially so in view of the
shifting of economic center from the west to the east. If controlled by any
[Asian] nation, key choke points in the Indian Ocean, including the Strait of
Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab el Mandeb, could tilt the balance of
trade further towards Asia.
In the Indian Ocean region the United
States also has a naval presence in Bahrain, Djibouti and Diego Garcia and
engages in exercises with various African, Asian and Middle Eastern countries
along the Indian Ocean coastline.
Under the new Washington, Tel Aviv
and New Delhi axis, U.S. is courting India to assign the lead role in the
Indian Ocean, which is unacceptable to both China and Pakistan. In fact,
India’s cozying up to powers that China is suspicious of, compels China and
Pakistan to strengthen their alliance further. China-Pakistan strategic naval
partnership centered on Gwadar will scuttle the Indo-U.S. ambition of
dominating the Indian Ocean.
Europe
Europe has strong economic and
security interests in the Indian Ocean. European countries are working to
obtain rights to mine the seabed of the Indian Ocean for valuable metals, with
some foreseeing a rush in the coming years. In addition, European countries
have substantial fishing interests; Sri Lanka’s fisheries minister estimates
they harvest 48 Percent in the Indian Ocean
Middle East despite its vast
resources, military and economic power is in turmoil due to on going US led
European-Israeli wars and the treachery of the dictators installed in power by
the west to serve them obediently.
Iran is the other emerging power of
the Indian Ocean with control of the most crucial Strait of Hormuz, a transit
passage responsible for the supply of oil to most of the world can
potentially be the cause of triggering conflict in the region.
As rightly pointed out by
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International and Pakistan affairs,
Indian Ocean has become the hub of political, strategic and economic activities
because of the presence of conventional and nuclear vessels of the major powers
in the area and because of its own economic and strategic significance.
One columnist pointed out that
Indians and the Chinese are likely to enter into a dynamic great-power rivalry
in these waters, with their economic interests as major trading partners
locking them in an uncomfortable embrace; while Pakistan would continue to
assert its position by establishing alliance with China and by building its own
capacity, especially naval power.
He added that what is becoming
obvious as things unfold is that no single state would be able to dominate the
region singularly; therefore, a sort of multilateral set up will have to be
established whereby each country can “equitably” pursue its goals.
Thus the discussions taking place
today in Islamabad at the International Conference on China-Pakistan economic
cooperation dealing with challenges and opportunities are bound to attract the
attention of countries near and far. Ends
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