This I wrote in 2016 about CPEC, and how it has come true. Dr Shabir Choudhry

 This I wrote in 2016 about CPEC, and how it has come true. Dr Shabir Choudhry

 

This piece is taken out from my book: Is CPEC Economic Corridor or a Strategic Game Plan?

 

Pakistani government and their foot soldiers claim CPEC is a game changer. Maybe the CPEC is a game changer, but the question is in whose favour will this game change? Many Pakistani economists have serious doubts about the CPEC projects and what they can offer to the people of Pakistan. We can all agree that the CPEC has the potential to make some more billionaires in China and in Pakistan. It can also help China to advance its economic and strategic agenda.

However, I have the following questions and see if the CPEC satisfies them, and which will enable readers to comprehend if this mega project will empower Pakistan, its society; and if it is anywhere near to the Marshall Plan:

1.   The people of Balochistan have very serious apprehensions about the CPEC. They feel it is imperial in design and is intended to utilize China’s military and economic might to further fortify the slavery of Balochistan; and help Pakistan to loot and plunder natural resources of Balochistan.

There are many statements and interviews of rebel Baloch leaders to support the above viewpoint, and the insurgency in Balochistan and the movement of the Baloch Diaspora also support this. People of other Pakistani provinces and Gilgit Baltistan also have similar complaints about the CPEC. If I start giving details of all then the article will become too long.

2.   According to many Pakistani economists and business people, Pakistani products will not be able to compete with Chinese products; and that will seriously hurt the Pakistani industries and exports. Already there is a big trade deficit in trade, and poor infrastructure and inadequate facilities will increase this gap further.

 

3.   Pakistan is an unequal partner in the CPEC, and decisions will go in favour of the stronger partner, China. This will result in Pakistan losing economically, and strategically and will also lose its sovereignty in many spheres of governance.

 

4.   People need to see if the CPEC will empower women and other disadvantaged people in Pakistani society.

 

5.   Will the CPEC promote peace and stability in the region? Or it will invite other competing powers to intervene in the affairs of the region?

 

6.   Will the CPEC create more space for civil society; or it will enable Pakistan to curb more fundamental rights and shrink already very little space?

 

7.   Will the CPEC help to promote democratic and secular ideals; or those who promote them will be hunted and punished?

 

8.   Will the CPEC empower anti-democratic forces and help to militarise the society; or it will empower the human rights activists to stand up and fight their corner?

It must be remembered that even the elected government with a big mandate is losing power and losing ground to non-state actors and unelected forces, and that vacuum is filled by anti-democratic forces. Militarisation of the society is taking place systematically; and evidence of that is even in a cricket match in Lahore, half an hour was spent in promoting the army.

9.   Will CPEC a promote vibrant and resilient society? Or it will strengthen undemocratic forces?

It must be noted that a vibrant and resilient civil society does not suit the governments of China and Pakistan. So, it would be foolish to expect from them to empower civil society.

10.                 Will CPEC promote transparency and accountability? The evidence so far available does not support this. Anyone who asks about the CPEC is given a shut-up call. Or they are accused of being an agent of India or some other perceived enemy country.

In my considered opinion, the nexus between the army and religious extremists is going to become stronger. Space for human rights activists and civil society will further shrink. Dissent will be brutally crushed, especially in Balochistan and in Gilgit Baltistan. The export of extremism and terrorism will continue to be an unofficial policy of the state policy, and the ideology of hatred and intolerance will be promoted under the cover of religion.