The Final round has to come yet
Dr Shabir Choudhry 7 January 2010
There was a lot of talk about the final punch of President Musharaf when he was President of Pakistan. The punch came with disastrous consequences for Pakistan and him. Pakistan still has not recovered from that ‘punch’; and he is out of country and could face deportation and a trial before Pakistani courts.
General Musharaf was a ‘brave man’, that is what he repeatedly told his country men with gun in his hand. He didn’t tell them that he surrendered after only one phone call from the USA. Anyhow his deportation and trial is a complicated matter; and much depends on what will happen to much talked political initiative or ‘punch’ of President Zadari who still holds most of powers of President Musharaf.
President Zardari has no intention of creating any problems for a person who has given so much to him; it is because of that he is continuing with most of his policies, including some senior officers, bureaucrats and Provincial Governors. In Pakistan there are many forces competing with each other. It is difficult to predict outcome of this power struggle, but there is another external factor looming; and which could have serious impact on internal power struggle.
India and Pakistan have had unfriendly relations soon after they became independent. They have not learnt to live like good neighbours. The vested interest which wants both countries to be at daggers drawn is too powerful; and wants to ensure that both countries are constantly in a state of war. Both countries had wars in which India emerged as the better side with Pakistan losing East Pakistan; and pain of this defeat was added by humiliating surrender of more than 90 thousands troops. India is much bigger and stronger than Pakistan, but Pakistan is not prepared to acknowledge India’s dominant role; and it is because of this some experts believe a final round has to come yet to settle this matter for once and all.
After the Mumbai attacks in November 2009, I predicted a war to take place between February and March of 2009 with disastrous consequences. I also predicted certain geographical changes to take place. Thank Allah SWT I was proved wrong and the war did not happen mainly because of the following reasons:
1. President Obama took over in January 2009, and wanted to try his new initiative on ‘Afpak’. He also wanted to give another chance to Pakistan to comply with what was demanded from them and what they promised to deliver honestly and sincerely; and not to do what President Musharaf did.
2. The war could not have started before March 2009 and the Indian elections were not too far; and under the rules the government could not start a war when elections are just around the corner.
3. Pakistan agreed to control ‘terrorists’ on this side of LOC and within Pakistan; and take appropriate measures to bring to justice all those accused of some involvement in the Mumbai incident. Pakistan also agreed to fully cooperate with India in their investigations.
4. There were other international factors which did not support waging of the war, including alternative supply route for the American and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
5. Situation inside Pakistan was not yet fully ready for such action.
But a lot has changed since March of last year. Strategy on ‘Afpak’ has not been successful; and 30 thousands more soldiers have been sent by the US with a new strategy which will have a significant impact on Pakistan and its ‘own’ war in FATA, Malakand Division and insurgency in Balochistan.
Many divisions of Pakistan army are engaged in this ‘war’ making the international borders with India and along the LOC vulnerable. Apart from that Pakistan today is more volatile, more divided and politically more unstable; and in view of anti Pakistan forces Pakistan has been considerably ‘softened’ because of systematic and consistent suicide attacks, drone attacks, insurgency and other attacks.
In other words situation is conducive for the final round. How and when this final round will start it is difficult to predict, because when analysing matters related to international relations with so many interests competing against each other; and some factors becoming active only once conditions have reached certain level, one has to be careful in making predictions.
Unlike last time I will not give date and likely outcome of this final round, but one thing is certain that it will come and settle many outstanding issues, possibly with some geographical changes. The present government in Pakistan seems to be at war with so many forces; and at times appear to be kicking in the air or in every direction from where opposition or criticism could emerge. They are willing to take on anyone and everyone; and when no one suitable opponent is found they challenge individual journalists.
With that kind of mind - set two controversial statements from Indian officials were seen as blessing in disguise; and something to divert attention and opportunity to flex muscles. The first statement was made by Vishnu Prakash, India’s Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, who said: “The entire State of Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India by virtue of its accession to India in 1947. Any action to alter the status of any part of the territory under the illegal occupation of Pakistan has no legal basis whatsoever, and is completely unacceptable.”
The other statement was made by Army Chief of India, General Deepak Kapoor, who talked of ‘the cold-start strategy’ and enhancing India’s ability for a ‘two-front war threat, from the west and the north-east.’
At one time India was more than happy for a status quo in Jammu and Kashmir, meaning Pakistan retain areas of the State under their control, provided the remaining Kashmir was accepted as part of India. But over the recent past Indian claim on the entire State of Jammu and Kashmir is becoming more frequent and assertive.
This is not acceptable to Pakistan. They reacted angrily and bluntly. Even cool minded and cautious General Kayani called the statement of the Indian army Chief as, “an adventurous and dangerous path, the consequences of which could be both unintended and uncontrollable.” He added that the Pakistan Army was “fully alert and alive to the full spectrum of threat which continues to exist in conventional and unconventional domains.”
Some other senior military officials said: Indian generals know our military capability, and they should avoid making such illogical statements as Pakistan is fully prepared to face all kinds of situations.
Capability of any military is judged by its performance in actual war with the enemy and not against its own people. Last two military confrontations Pakistan and India had were in 1971 and in Kargil; and it is not clear from the statements of these military officials which capability they were referring to – the one demonstrated in Kargil or the one in 1971.
Anyhow on the issue of General Deepak Kapoor’s statement, a famous Pakistani journalist Nazir Naji commented: ‘Target of this threat is Pakistan; and China is only cautioned to keep out of this. India knows well that both India and China cannot afford a war with each other, as priority of both is economic growth and stability. But my information is India has plans to attack Pakistan in near future’.
The threat of war is credible; and unlike the previous wars Pakistan will be fighting on Eastern and Western borders. America, like in 1971, will not come to save Pakistan, if anything, will punish Pakistan for certain policies. However role of China will be crucial in this matter.
True, China has no desire to engage in any war, be it with India, America or Russia; but at the same time China will not be a silent spectator and could take initiative to safeguard its interests linked to Gilgit Baltistan and Gawader.
Writer is a Spokesman of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
To view other articles see my blog: www.drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com
Thursday, 7 January 2010
Monday, 4 January 2010
People should protest against President Zardari
People should protest against President Zardari
Dr Shabir Choudhry
London 04 January 2010
People of Jammu and Kashmir should protest against Asif Zardari who plans to visit Muzaffrabad, capital of Pakistani Administered Kashmir, said Dr Shabir Choudhry, Spokesman of Kashmir National Party.
President of Pakistan, Asif Zardari is visiting Muzaffarabad tomorrow, but he is not welcome there, as we do not welcome those who have imperialist designs on Kashmiri territories.
Dr Shabir Choudhry said, ‘Asif Zardari has let down his people and people of Jammu and Kashmir have no hopes from him, especially when his government has practically annexed Gilgit Baltistan’.
KNP Spokesman said, ‘Gilgit Baltistan is legal part of State of Jammu and Kashmir, and Pakistani presence and rule there is illegal and unconstitutional. Position of Pakistan in Gilgit Baltistan is that of an occupier and aggressor; and these rigged elections do not change legal position of these areas or that of Pakistan’.
Dr Shabir Choudhry said, ‘Kashmir National Party with help of other like minded parties and groups will hold protests to express our disgust and anger’. He further said ‘Those who are welcoming him are no different to President Karazai of Afghanistan or Maliki of Iraq and will be treated like collaborators.’
Dr Shabir Choudhry said, ‘We are not part of any country and we are forcibly divided by those who occupy us. Our struggle is for united and independent Jammu and Kashmir and it will continue despite all the odds’. END
--
Dr Shabir Choudhry
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell.
Dr Shabir Choudhry
London 04 January 2010
People of Jammu and Kashmir should protest against Asif Zardari who plans to visit Muzaffrabad, capital of Pakistani Administered Kashmir, said Dr Shabir Choudhry, Spokesman of Kashmir National Party.
President of Pakistan, Asif Zardari is visiting Muzaffarabad tomorrow, but he is not welcome there, as we do not welcome those who have imperialist designs on Kashmiri territories.
Dr Shabir Choudhry said, ‘Asif Zardari has let down his people and people of Jammu and Kashmir have no hopes from him, especially when his government has practically annexed Gilgit Baltistan’.
KNP Spokesman said, ‘Gilgit Baltistan is legal part of State of Jammu and Kashmir, and Pakistani presence and rule there is illegal and unconstitutional. Position of Pakistan in Gilgit Baltistan is that of an occupier and aggressor; and these rigged elections do not change legal position of these areas or that of Pakistan’.
Dr Shabir Choudhry said, ‘Kashmir National Party with help of other like minded parties and groups will hold protests to express our disgust and anger’. He further said ‘Those who are welcoming him are no different to President Karazai of Afghanistan or Maliki of Iraq and will be treated like collaborators.’
Dr Shabir Choudhry said, ‘We are not part of any country and we are forcibly divided by those who occupy us. Our struggle is for united and independent Jammu and Kashmir and it will continue despite all the odds’. END
--
Dr Shabir Choudhry
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell.
Wednesday, 23 December 2009
Jihadi culture on rise in Pakistan
Jihadi culture on rise in Pakistan
Dr Shabir Choudhry 23 December 2009
Despite ‘war on terrorism’ and Pakistan’s war against Taliban and massive propaganda against Muslim militants ‘Jihadi culture’ is on rise not only in FATA but in various parts of Pakistan, including Punjab.
Renowned Pakistani writer and defence analyst, Dr Ayesha Siddiqa writes: ‘Madrassas nurturing armies of young Islamic militants ready to embrace martyrdom have been on the rise for years in the Punjab. In fact, South Punjab has become the hub of jihadism. Yet, somehow, there are still many people in Pakistan who refuse to acknowledge this threat.’
Religious groups promoting jihad have very organised system of recruiting and training young people to advance the cause of Islam. Poverty stricken areas with economic deprivation are fertile ground to spread extremist views. Young children are recruited from madrassas and are looked after so well that their own living style looks much inferior.
They undergo ideological indoctrination where they are told that jihad is must in life of a true Muslim; and this jihad must continue till the end of their lives or until all infidels have become Muslims. They are told that a martyred person (Shaheed) will be blessed with a place in heaven where they will get 70 hoors (extremely beautiful virgin girls); and one shaheed will be allowed to get forgiveness for 70 additional people.
This temptation is too much for poor and impoverished young boys to reject. They not only want to enjoy better status in this life – power of gun, prestige and economic stability; but also dream of heaven, hoors and bounties of heaven look so real that they abandon their existing life for a better future.
The poor and the underprivileged generally become an easy target of militant outfits, which offer money, power and better future; and country’s deteriorating economic situation would surely attract more people to militant fold. It is also possible that they will help to recruit their friends and relatives as they also want them to embrace martyrdom that they can live in heaven together.
The jihadi culture nourished during General Zia-ul-Haq’s rule. It had three clear objectives: A proxy war of America against Soviet Russia in name of Jihad, a proxy war of Saudi Arabia against Shia Community and Iran and to extend his military rule. Talented secret agency of Pakistan, ISI under watchful eyes of CIA created many jihadi outfits. Later on this jihad was also ‘exported’ to Kashmir and other countries as well. These Jihadi outfits get official patronage as long as they work within the parameters set up by the establishment.
The Jihadi outfits which are still actively recruiting and training people are: Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT). According to Dr Ayesha Siddiqa between 5000 and 9000 from South Punjab are actively engaged in fighting in Aghanistan and Waziristan. However, according to a renowned Pakistani researcher, Hassan Abbas, around 2,000 militants are fighting in Waziristan.
The recent attacks in various parts of Pakistan could not have been carried out without careful planning and logistical support of Punjabi Talibans. The government and policy makers deny this fact because they don’t want to draw attention of the US and other Western powers to gravity of situation in South Punjab. Apart from that they don’t want to eliminate them altogether, as this home grown crop could be used against India at an appropriate time.
Another difficulty in crushing them is that these militants and outfits are closely associated with Pirs, religious institutions, landlords and drug mafia and the authorities do not find it easy to eradicate them. Also using army or rangers in East Pakistan, FATA, Balochistan even in Sind is one thing but it is totally different cattle of fish to use it in any part of Punjab.
Madrassas and seminaries flourished in all parts of Pakistan in 1980s and 1990s. They have also shown impressive growth in South Punjab as well. According to one report prepared in 1996 there were 883 madrassas in Bahawalpur, 361 in Dera Ghazi Khan, 325 in Multan and 149 in Sargodha district. The madrassas in Bahawalpur outnumbered all other cities, including Lahore. These madrassas belong to Deobandi sect of Islam and do not include the Ahl-e-Hadith, Barelvi and other branches of Islam.
According to estimate of Intelligence Bureau of Pakistan, there were approximately 1,383 madrassas in the Bahawalpur Division which had 84,000 students in 2008. Bahawalpur alone has more than 36,000 students. It is estimated that there are more than one million students in various madrassas in Pakistan. It is difficult to tell how many of them will pick up gun to advance cause of these militant groups, and how many of them will become suicide bombers in search of heaven and hoors.
Question is if these students who graduate from Madrassas don’t resort to violence then what future do they have? At best they will become imams of some mosques or open more madrassas in some remote areas of the country. The existence of madrassas is very important for the teaching of Islam but these madrassa should also teach other subjects that people graduating from there could find alternative jobs in the society and play their due role in the progress of society.
Historian Tahir Kamran conducted a survey in which he says there were 1320 madrassas in Punjab in 1988 and this rose to 3153 by 2000. This dramatic increase is about 140%; and worries all those who are concerned about the rise of religious extremism in Pakistan. These madrassas were expected to train and supply militants for the war theatre in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Before 9/11 there were more than 15000 militants from the Bahawalpur division alone.
The government instead of facing the challenge find it more convenient to deny the existence of these extremist groups or rise of these madrassas; and just call it propaganda of anti Pakistan forces. This is more so when matter is related to Punjb; and especially Maulana Masood Azhar who is perceived to be so influential that authorities feel unable to arrest him or detain him in real sense.
One such claim made by the authorities was that Maulana Masood Azhar was on the run and he never visited his home town in the last three years. Truth was that on 29 April 2008, Maulana Masood Azhar had a massive book launch of his new book - Fatah-ul-Jawad- Quranic Verses on Jihad, in Bahawalpur. What is more intriguing is that, JeM’s armed volunteers were in full control of the relevant parts of the city, even they controlled all entrance and exit routes of the city that day. The police or any other personnel related to the government were not visible that day.
Dr Ayesha Siddiqa further writes: ‘The LeT’s presence in South Punjab is far more obvious than others courtesy of the wall chalkings and social work by its sister outfit, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa. Despite the rumours of friction between the LeT and the JuD leadership, the two segments operate in unison in South Punjab. Three of the favourite areas of recruitment in South Punjab for all outfits are Cholistan in Bahawalpur, the Rekh in Dera Ghazi Khan, and the Kacha area in Rajanpur’.
This militancy, one way or the other, is supported by middle class Pakistanis and some government departments. Rich Pakistanis pay Zakat – Alms to help poor and needy. They also support religious institutions, as they provide religious teaching, shelter and food to poor. Also huge amount of funds are diverted from the Middle East and Gulf States in support of these institutions.
Furthermore the government collects huge amount of money by directly deducting Zakat from accounts of people and help these institutions by providing Zakat money to them. Apart from that, government apparatus, especially secret agencies share certain information with them; and at times provide training and weapons to them.
I regularly support one madrassa in Pakistani Administered Kashmir; and I have asked the management of that madrassa to introduce other subjects as well, including computing. I have donated them a computer and printer that students, apart from gaining Islamic knowledge are also equipped with other useful skills.
It is religious duty of all Muslims to give Zakat and Sadqa; and help the poor and needy. It is also our duty to help and support religious institutions and help them to spread message of Islam. My request to all donors is that they should urge the management committees of madrassas that they should teach students other subjects apart from the religious teaching.
Writer is a Spokesman of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
To view other articles see my blog: www.drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com
Dr Shabir Choudhry 23 December 2009
Despite ‘war on terrorism’ and Pakistan’s war against Taliban and massive propaganda against Muslim militants ‘Jihadi culture’ is on rise not only in FATA but in various parts of Pakistan, including Punjab.
Renowned Pakistani writer and defence analyst, Dr Ayesha Siddiqa writes: ‘Madrassas nurturing armies of young Islamic militants ready to embrace martyrdom have been on the rise for years in the Punjab. In fact, South Punjab has become the hub of jihadism. Yet, somehow, there are still many people in Pakistan who refuse to acknowledge this threat.’
Religious groups promoting jihad have very organised system of recruiting and training young people to advance the cause of Islam. Poverty stricken areas with economic deprivation are fertile ground to spread extremist views. Young children are recruited from madrassas and are looked after so well that their own living style looks much inferior.
They undergo ideological indoctrination where they are told that jihad is must in life of a true Muslim; and this jihad must continue till the end of their lives or until all infidels have become Muslims. They are told that a martyred person (Shaheed) will be blessed with a place in heaven where they will get 70 hoors (extremely beautiful virgin girls); and one shaheed will be allowed to get forgiveness for 70 additional people.
This temptation is too much for poor and impoverished young boys to reject. They not only want to enjoy better status in this life – power of gun, prestige and economic stability; but also dream of heaven, hoors and bounties of heaven look so real that they abandon their existing life for a better future.
The poor and the underprivileged generally become an easy target of militant outfits, which offer money, power and better future; and country’s deteriorating economic situation would surely attract more people to militant fold. It is also possible that they will help to recruit their friends and relatives as they also want them to embrace martyrdom that they can live in heaven together.
The jihadi culture nourished during General Zia-ul-Haq’s rule. It had three clear objectives: A proxy war of America against Soviet Russia in name of Jihad, a proxy war of Saudi Arabia against Shia Community and Iran and to extend his military rule. Talented secret agency of Pakistan, ISI under watchful eyes of CIA created many jihadi outfits. Later on this jihad was also ‘exported’ to Kashmir and other countries as well. These Jihadi outfits get official patronage as long as they work within the parameters set up by the establishment.
The Jihadi outfits which are still actively recruiting and training people are: Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT). According to Dr Ayesha Siddiqa between 5000 and 9000 from South Punjab are actively engaged in fighting in Aghanistan and Waziristan. However, according to a renowned Pakistani researcher, Hassan Abbas, around 2,000 militants are fighting in Waziristan.
The recent attacks in various parts of Pakistan could not have been carried out without careful planning and logistical support of Punjabi Talibans. The government and policy makers deny this fact because they don’t want to draw attention of the US and other Western powers to gravity of situation in South Punjab. Apart from that they don’t want to eliminate them altogether, as this home grown crop could be used against India at an appropriate time.
Another difficulty in crushing them is that these militants and outfits are closely associated with Pirs, religious institutions, landlords and drug mafia and the authorities do not find it easy to eradicate them. Also using army or rangers in East Pakistan, FATA, Balochistan even in Sind is one thing but it is totally different cattle of fish to use it in any part of Punjab.
Madrassas and seminaries flourished in all parts of Pakistan in 1980s and 1990s. They have also shown impressive growth in South Punjab as well. According to one report prepared in 1996 there were 883 madrassas in Bahawalpur, 361 in Dera Ghazi Khan, 325 in Multan and 149 in Sargodha district. The madrassas in Bahawalpur outnumbered all other cities, including Lahore. These madrassas belong to Deobandi sect of Islam and do not include the Ahl-e-Hadith, Barelvi and other branches of Islam.
According to estimate of Intelligence Bureau of Pakistan, there were approximately 1,383 madrassas in the Bahawalpur Division which had 84,000 students in 2008. Bahawalpur alone has more than 36,000 students. It is estimated that there are more than one million students in various madrassas in Pakistan. It is difficult to tell how many of them will pick up gun to advance cause of these militant groups, and how many of them will become suicide bombers in search of heaven and hoors.
Question is if these students who graduate from Madrassas don’t resort to violence then what future do they have? At best they will become imams of some mosques or open more madrassas in some remote areas of the country. The existence of madrassas is very important for the teaching of Islam but these madrassa should also teach other subjects that people graduating from there could find alternative jobs in the society and play their due role in the progress of society.
Historian Tahir Kamran conducted a survey in which he says there were 1320 madrassas in Punjab in 1988 and this rose to 3153 by 2000. This dramatic increase is about 140%; and worries all those who are concerned about the rise of religious extremism in Pakistan. These madrassas were expected to train and supply militants for the war theatre in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Before 9/11 there were more than 15000 militants from the Bahawalpur division alone.
The government instead of facing the challenge find it more convenient to deny the existence of these extremist groups or rise of these madrassas; and just call it propaganda of anti Pakistan forces. This is more so when matter is related to Punjb; and especially Maulana Masood Azhar who is perceived to be so influential that authorities feel unable to arrest him or detain him in real sense.
One such claim made by the authorities was that Maulana Masood Azhar was on the run and he never visited his home town in the last three years. Truth was that on 29 April 2008, Maulana Masood Azhar had a massive book launch of his new book - Fatah-ul-Jawad- Quranic Verses on Jihad, in Bahawalpur. What is more intriguing is that, JeM’s armed volunteers were in full control of the relevant parts of the city, even they controlled all entrance and exit routes of the city that day. The police or any other personnel related to the government were not visible that day.
Dr Ayesha Siddiqa further writes: ‘The LeT’s presence in South Punjab is far more obvious than others courtesy of the wall chalkings and social work by its sister outfit, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa. Despite the rumours of friction between the LeT and the JuD leadership, the two segments operate in unison in South Punjab. Three of the favourite areas of recruitment in South Punjab for all outfits are Cholistan in Bahawalpur, the Rekh in Dera Ghazi Khan, and the Kacha area in Rajanpur’.
This militancy, one way or the other, is supported by middle class Pakistanis and some government departments. Rich Pakistanis pay Zakat – Alms to help poor and needy. They also support religious institutions, as they provide religious teaching, shelter and food to poor. Also huge amount of funds are diverted from the Middle East and Gulf States in support of these institutions.
Furthermore the government collects huge amount of money by directly deducting Zakat from accounts of people and help these institutions by providing Zakat money to them. Apart from that, government apparatus, especially secret agencies share certain information with them; and at times provide training and weapons to them.
I regularly support one madrassa in Pakistani Administered Kashmir; and I have asked the management of that madrassa to introduce other subjects as well, including computing. I have donated them a computer and printer that students, apart from gaining Islamic knowledge are also equipped with other useful skills.
It is religious duty of all Muslims to give Zakat and Sadqa; and help the poor and needy. It is also our duty to help and support religious institutions and help them to spread message of Islam. My request to all donors is that they should urge the management committees of madrassas that they should teach students other subjects apart from the religious teaching.
Writer is a Spokesman of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
To view other articles see my blog: www.drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com
Tuesday, 22 December 2009
Riots after rigged elections in Gilgit Baltistan
Riots after rigged elections in Gilgit Baltistan
London, 22 December 2009
Elections were held today, 21 December 2009, in LA19, District Ghizer, to elect member for Gilgit Baltistan Assembly.
Front runner in this election was Nawaz Naji, a leader of National Balwaristan Front. It was widely believed that Nawaz Naji would win this seat with a big margin. Through out the day all the poles and reports from all 12 poling stations indicated that Nawaz Naji was leading the poles. Up till 8pm at night it was declared that Nawaz Naji was leading the poles.
Supporters of Nawaz Naji were preparing for celebrations when, to surprise of everyone, at 9pm it was declared that Peoples Party candidate Pir Saeed Karam Ali Shah has won the elections.
This news resulted in a strong protest by supporters of Nawaz Naji in various localities. The police and Rangers responded by firing at the protesters which killed on person and injured.
This further infuriated the angry people and they have started attacking official government building and public property. The situation is very tensed and supporters of Nawaz Naji fear for life of their leader and other senior political activists.
The protesters reject Pakistani style of democracy in Gilgit Baltistan and demanded new elections.
Shafqat Inquilabi, a leader of BNF while talking to Dr Shabir Choudhry on phone said, ‘All those who love democracy and believe in human rights of people must protest against this attack on fundamental rights of people, and oppose Pakistani imperialist design in Gilgit Baltisan’.
He further said, ‘He would hold a press conference in Muzaffarabad (tomorrow 23 December) to expose the rigging and Pakistani oppression in Gilgit Baltistan.
Those who want to get more information or express support, they can reach Shafqat Inquilabi on this number: 0092- 436 5100 270
Issued by Dr Shabir Choudhry
Mobile: 0044 77909 42471
Email: drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
London, 22 December 2009
Elections were held today, 21 December 2009, in LA19, District Ghizer, to elect member for Gilgit Baltistan Assembly.
Front runner in this election was Nawaz Naji, a leader of National Balwaristan Front. It was widely believed that Nawaz Naji would win this seat with a big margin. Through out the day all the poles and reports from all 12 poling stations indicated that Nawaz Naji was leading the poles. Up till 8pm at night it was declared that Nawaz Naji was leading the poles.
Supporters of Nawaz Naji were preparing for celebrations when, to surprise of everyone, at 9pm it was declared that Peoples Party candidate Pir Saeed Karam Ali Shah has won the elections.
This news resulted in a strong protest by supporters of Nawaz Naji in various localities. The police and Rangers responded by firing at the protesters which killed on person and injured.
This further infuriated the angry people and they have started attacking official government building and public property. The situation is very tensed and supporters of Nawaz Naji fear for life of their leader and other senior political activists.
The protesters reject Pakistani style of democracy in Gilgit Baltistan and demanded new elections.
Shafqat Inquilabi, a leader of BNF while talking to Dr Shabir Choudhry on phone said, ‘All those who love democracy and believe in human rights of people must protest against this attack on fundamental rights of people, and oppose Pakistani imperialist design in Gilgit Baltisan’.
He further said, ‘He would hold a press conference in Muzaffarabad (tomorrow 23 December) to expose the rigging and Pakistani oppression in Gilgit Baltistan.
Those who want to get more information or express support, they can reach Shafqat Inquilabi on this number: 0092- 436 5100 270
Issued by Dr Shabir Choudhry
Mobile: 0044 77909 42471
Email: drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
Friday, 18 December 2009
Can Pakistan win this war?
Can Pakistan win this war?
Dr Shabir Choudhry 18 December 2009
Pakistan is at war, and this time the war is not with India. The wars with India proved disastrous. This war is with its own people and within its defined borders. Some call it America’s war whereas the government and the army call it ‘Pakistan’s own war’. Is it really? Pakistan is determined to win this war; and I sincerely hope they win it, as this is very important for peace and stability of Pakistan, Kashmir and the region.
As a result of this war Pakistan is under attack. One by one all highly guarded institutions have been attacked, clearly showing that those who target these attacks are few steps ahead of Pakistani secret agencies. Pakistan claims Talibans are behind these attacks.
Before we answer that question we have to establish who are the Talibans? We are told they are people who have studied in Madrassas (Muslim religious schools) and generally belong to poor families. They are not considered educated or even rational. They are labelled as illiterate, backward and narrow minded extremists.
If the above is true then where did these ‘backward’, ‘illiterate’ and ‘irrational people’ learn art of modern warfare? Where did they learn art of espionage and counter espionage? In which Madrassa did they learn to plan terrorism so meticulously and execute their plans so effectively that the top Pakistani intelligence agencies find themselves helpless?
How could backward and uneducated people living in caves and mud houses in neglected areas of North West Frontier and FATA have access to secret information about various places, especially offices of secret agencies, their movements and who is living where and doing what?
I am not condoning what they are doing, but question is why are they targeting offices and officers of secret agencies and officers of the Pakistan army? How do they know who belongs to ISI and who is a senior officer in the army; and where they live?
Are these terrorists – Talibans - ‘illiterate’ and ‘backward’ people who are calling the shots; or they are among those who were trained to export violence and jihad in other countries? Are these the people who were considered an ‘asset’ to conquer and control ‘strategic depth’; and now there was a conflict of interest between the trainers and the trainees? And these trained ‘boys’ feel that their mentor is fighting America’s war and protecting a ‘big Satan’, which is trapped in Afghanistan.
Apart from that, unlike Kashmiris, these ‘boys’ have grown up and have become fully matured men, and feel that they can decide what is good for them. Furthermore, unlike Kashmiris, they give preference to their interest and not to the interest of those who trained them and funded them. They think their ‘jihad’ has not ended yet, although interest and priorities of their mentors to some extent have changed.
People could argue, Taliban are wrong, they have started targeting mosques and public places where civilians get killed. But the counter argument put forward by supporters of the Taliban is that those 83 boys and girls who were killed in Bajour Madrassa were also innocent, and were there to learn Qur’an. They were killed when Tribal leaders agreed to respect the writ of government and lay down their arms. It was only when innocent children were killed in the Madrassa in Bajour that the wave of suicide attacks started. Similarly those girls and boys who lost their lives in Red Mosque and Jamia Hafisa were also innocent and they were killed and burnt by use of white phosphorous, an illegal chemical weapon.
In response to this one could say that the target was ‘terrorists’ inside those establishments and girls and boys died in a ‘collateral damage’ – a term used to cover up or justify killing of innocent civilians. But there are not many takers of this argument. If terrorists takeover London University and refuse to come out, should the innocent students, teachers and other staff be gunned down with use of heavy weapons and burnt to ashes with use of white phosphorous?
I won’t talk here of big targets like attacks on GHQ and various offices of secret agencies including offices of ISI, elite secret agency of Pakistan. I want to briefly analyse three attacks which happened in Rawalpindi.
A serving General of Pakistan army’s car was targeted by a 15/16 years old suicide bomber on the Maal Road Rawalpindi in which the General lost his life. How did this young uneducated teenager know that this was the General’s car? How did he know what time the General would be leaving hospital and reaching those traffic lights where the car was attacked?
In another incident dozens of innocent civilians lost their lives near a bank in Sader, in a suicide attack. Apparently this attack was on civilians, but reliable sources reveal that the target was a Major of ISI and his four colleagues who reached there in a car which was parked in a car park; and that was where the attack happened. The ISI Major was injured in the attack but his four colleagues together with dozens of other people perished. The question is how the bomber knew he was an ISI officer and he had four other ISI personnel with him?
The last attack in Rawlapindi was in a mosque on 4 December 2009. It was a deadly blow to Pakistan army and its image. This attack, like others in the past, was condemned by the government and the army. There was also a strong reaction from the people of Pakistan as well because the attack was in a mosque during a Friday congregation at a Parade Lanes mosque. Many declared that those who attack mosques are not Muslims. May be they are not.
But the counter argument is what about the attack on Red Mosque and Jamia Hafisa, and destruction of other seven mosques in Islamabad on Murree Road which happened during Musharaf’s rule? Those people who destroyed these mosques, were they Muslims or non Muslims?
And moreover, what about the attack on Holy Kabbah by Hijaj Bin Yousaf? No mosque on earth can match the sanctity of holy Kabbah. Hijaj Bin Yousaf was a Muslim. His army was Muslim too; and those he was fighting were also very good Muslims. Also what about attack on holy Kabbah by some Iranians about three decades ago? Were they Muslims or non Muslims?
I am not justifying an attack on any mosque or holy Kabbah. I, in fact, in line with Islamic teaching respect all religious shrines and places of worship. I only want to make a point that sometimes fighting forces do attack places of worship, wrong as it is, to promote a cause they believe in or to eliminate high value target; or simply to take revenge.
In Rawalpindi mosque the target was not ordinary people who went their to pray, but the prime target was Hashim Masood the only son of the corps commander of Peshawar, Lieutenant General Masood Aslam, who is commanding operations in South Waziristan. Apart from him, 17 officers of the Pakistan Army were killed; among them was a General of the Armoured Corps, Major General Bilal Omar, a Brigadier some Colonels and Majors.
I, like other people, also condemn this attack; and express full sympathy with the families of those who lost their love ones in this tragic act of terrorism. I pray Allah to grant heaven to those who lost their lives.
Mufti Waliur Rahman Mehsud, the chief of the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan, while accepting the responsibility for the Rawalpindi said their ‘primary targets’ were the army officers in the mosque. He did not even express any remorse on the death of civilians, because in his view they were relatives of army officers and their demise ‘did not matter’.
When F16 strikes or Drones attack, innocent people get killed. They are labelled as terrorists; even when among the death include innocent children and women. There is no one to show who the victims are; and those who kill have no interest to show the damage they have inflicted. If somehow it is known that there were no terrorists and only innocent people were killed, a few lines statement is issued to say it was sad, but it was a ‘collateral’ damage.
Can anyone cover the death of innocent people in the Rawalpindi mosque under the term of ‘collateral damage’? People should not be allowed to kill innocent civilians under the cover of ‘collateral damage’, whether the killer is using F16 or a suicide jacket.
That aside my question is how did these ‘uneducated and backward’ tribesmen knew that Lieutenant General Masood Aslam’s only son was in the mosque? How did these attackers managed to enter this highly guarded and secured zone with so many weapons?
Talibans or Pathans are good fighters, and we all know that. But it is beyond their ability to collect so much intelligence, analyse it, make sense of it, and monitor activities of their targets and plan attacks with so much precision.
What this means is that someone else is providing them the required information. It is this someone else who plan attacks with military sophistication and precision; and Taliban only provide manpower or volunteers to carry out the job.
Important question is who is this someone? Many Pakistanis claim that Blackwater (new name Xe) is behind these attacks. Others say RAW and Mossad, Indian and Israeli secret agencies are behind them. Some others claim that the American’s are providing the intelligence and the Taliban are implementing the plans.
It is possible that there is more than one agency at work to destabilise Pakistan. It suits their national interest to destabilise Pakistan. But destabilisation of Pakistan also suits many Pakistanis as well; and they have different reasons for that. Because of this aspect of the war which Pakistan is fighting, some still think it is ‘inside job’.
They claim the disgruntled elements of the establishment and security apparatus are helping the Taliban by providing important information. It must be understood that the war Pakistan is fighting is not against any tribe or geographical area of Pakistan. They are fighting fanatics belonging to a cult, which is willing to die and blow them up to promote their cause. They are also determined to kill anyone who is perceived as an ‘enemy’ or threat to their cause.
These fanatics were recruited during General Zia time and groomed during 1980s and 1990s to promote a particular brand of Islam and export that ideology to serve the cause of Islam and Pakistan. To them end justify means; however wrong that might look to others. These fanatics were appointed in various ministries and in different sections of the Pakistani establishment; and with time they earned promotions and increased their area of influence.
These fanatics did not belong to one tribe or one region of Pakistan. Thousands of them were from various towns of Punjab and Frontier Province. Because of their common ideology and common goal they had good networking and coordination among them. It is this relationship which is causing so much trouble to Pakistan and Pakistani secret agencies, as their loyalty to the cult is much stronger than their loyalty to their departments.
When Pakistan made a U Turn on its policy and joined the America’s war against terrorism these people, as a matter of policy, became part of the war on both sides. However this policy could not continue for too long. Some people were made to retire and others were posted to less significant posts; but some others decided to become inactive for some time.
Some Pakistanis are claiming that they have won this war because of some success in Swat and in South Wazirstan. In my opinion it is too early to make this claim, as the war has just begun. True, Pakistan wants a quick end to this war; but the Taliban leaders have a strategy to drag it on for many years. Moreover external factors will influence the final outcome of the war.
If Pakistan wants to win this war then they have to change their strategy. They must not only rely on use of F16 and helicopters gunship. They have to win minds and hearts of the people and that could not be won by use of brute force and making more people homeless, making more orphans and martyrs. Above all they seriously need to look for moles among their ranks. It is these people who are cause of so much death and destruction in Pakistan.
Writer is a Spokesman of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
To view other articles see my blog: www.drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com
Dr Shabir Choudhry 18 December 2009
Pakistan is at war, and this time the war is not with India. The wars with India proved disastrous. This war is with its own people and within its defined borders. Some call it America’s war whereas the government and the army call it ‘Pakistan’s own war’. Is it really? Pakistan is determined to win this war; and I sincerely hope they win it, as this is very important for peace and stability of Pakistan, Kashmir and the region.
As a result of this war Pakistan is under attack. One by one all highly guarded institutions have been attacked, clearly showing that those who target these attacks are few steps ahead of Pakistani secret agencies. Pakistan claims Talibans are behind these attacks.
Before we answer that question we have to establish who are the Talibans? We are told they are people who have studied in Madrassas (Muslim religious schools) and generally belong to poor families. They are not considered educated or even rational. They are labelled as illiterate, backward and narrow minded extremists.
If the above is true then where did these ‘backward’, ‘illiterate’ and ‘irrational people’ learn art of modern warfare? Where did they learn art of espionage and counter espionage? In which Madrassa did they learn to plan terrorism so meticulously and execute their plans so effectively that the top Pakistani intelligence agencies find themselves helpless?
How could backward and uneducated people living in caves and mud houses in neglected areas of North West Frontier and FATA have access to secret information about various places, especially offices of secret agencies, their movements and who is living where and doing what?
I am not condoning what they are doing, but question is why are they targeting offices and officers of secret agencies and officers of the Pakistan army? How do they know who belongs to ISI and who is a senior officer in the army; and where they live?
Are these terrorists – Talibans - ‘illiterate’ and ‘backward’ people who are calling the shots; or they are among those who were trained to export violence and jihad in other countries? Are these the people who were considered an ‘asset’ to conquer and control ‘strategic depth’; and now there was a conflict of interest between the trainers and the trainees? And these trained ‘boys’ feel that their mentor is fighting America’s war and protecting a ‘big Satan’, which is trapped in Afghanistan.
Apart from that, unlike Kashmiris, these ‘boys’ have grown up and have become fully matured men, and feel that they can decide what is good for them. Furthermore, unlike Kashmiris, they give preference to their interest and not to the interest of those who trained them and funded them. They think their ‘jihad’ has not ended yet, although interest and priorities of their mentors to some extent have changed.
People could argue, Taliban are wrong, they have started targeting mosques and public places where civilians get killed. But the counter argument put forward by supporters of the Taliban is that those 83 boys and girls who were killed in Bajour Madrassa were also innocent, and were there to learn Qur’an. They were killed when Tribal leaders agreed to respect the writ of government and lay down their arms. It was only when innocent children were killed in the Madrassa in Bajour that the wave of suicide attacks started. Similarly those girls and boys who lost their lives in Red Mosque and Jamia Hafisa were also innocent and they were killed and burnt by use of white phosphorous, an illegal chemical weapon.
In response to this one could say that the target was ‘terrorists’ inside those establishments and girls and boys died in a ‘collateral damage’ – a term used to cover up or justify killing of innocent civilians. But there are not many takers of this argument. If terrorists takeover London University and refuse to come out, should the innocent students, teachers and other staff be gunned down with use of heavy weapons and burnt to ashes with use of white phosphorous?
I won’t talk here of big targets like attacks on GHQ and various offices of secret agencies including offices of ISI, elite secret agency of Pakistan. I want to briefly analyse three attacks which happened in Rawalpindi.
A serving General of Pakistan army’s car was targeted by a 15/16 years old suicide bomber on the Maal Road Rawalpindi in which the General lost his life. How did this young uneducated teenager know that this was the General’s car? How did he know what time the General would be leaving hospital and reaching those traffic lights where the car was attacked?
In another incident dozens of innocent civilians lost their lives near a bank in Sader, in a suicide attack. Apparently this attack was on civilians, but reliable sources reveal that the target was a Major of ISI and his four colleagues who reached there in a car which was parked in a car park; and that was where the attack happened. The ISI Major was injured in the attack but his four colleagues together with dozens of other people perished. The question is how the bomber knew he was an ISI officer and he had four other ISI personnel with him?
The last attack in Rawlapindi was in a mosque on 4 December 2009. It was a deadly blow to Pakistan army and its image. This attack, like others in the past, was condemned by the government and the army. There was also a strong reaction from the people of Pakistan as well because the attack was in a mosque during a Friday congregation at a Parade Lanes mosque. Many declared that those who attack mosques are not Muslims. May be they are not.
But the counter argument is what about the attack on Red Mosque and Jamia Hafisa, and destruction of other seven mosques in Islamabad on Murree Road which happened during Musharaf’s rule? Those people who destroyed these mosques, were they Muslims or non Muslims?
And moreover, what about the attack on Holy Kabbah by Hijaj Bin Yousaf? No mosque on earth can match the sanctity of holy Kabbah. Hijaj Bin Yousaf was a Muslim. His army was Muslim too; and those he was fighting were also very good Muslims. Also what about attack on holy Kabbah by some Iranians about three decades ago? Were they Muslims or non Muslims?
I am not justifying an attack on any mosque or holy Kabbah. I, in fact, in line with Islamic teaching respect all religious shrines and places of worship. I only want to make a point that sometimes fighting forces do attack places of worship, wrong as it is, to promote a cause they believe in or to eliminate high value target; or simply to take revenge.
In Rawalpindi mosque the target was not ordinary people who went their to pray, but the prime target was Hashim Masood the only son of the corps commander of Peshawar, Lieutenant General Masood Aslam, who is commanding operations in South Waziristan. Apart from him, 17 officers of the Pakistan Army were killed; among them was a General of the Armoured Corps, Major General Bilal Omar, a Brigadier some Colonels and Majors.
I, like other people, also condemn this attack; and express full sympathy with the families of those who lost their love ones in this tragic act of terrorism. I pray Allah to grant heaven to those who lost their lives.
Mufti Waliur Rahman Mehsud, the chief of the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan, while accepting the responsibility for the Rawalpindi said their ‘primary targets’ were the army officers in the mosque. He did not even express any remorse on the death of civilians, because in his view they were relatives of army officers and their demise ‘did not matter’.
When F16 strikes or Drones attack, innocent people get killed. They are labelled as terrorists; even when among the death include innocent children and women. There is no one to show who the victims are; and those who kill have no interest to show the damage they have inflicted. If somehow it is known that there were no terrorists and only innocent people were killed, a few lines statement is issued to say it was sad, but it was a ‘collateral’ damage.
Can anyone cover the death of innocent people in the Rawalpindi mosque under the term of ‘collateral damage’? People should not be allowed to kill innocent civilians under the cover of ‘collateral damage’, whether the killer is using F16 or a suicide jacket.
That aside my question is how did these ‘uneducated and backward’ tribesmen knew that Lieutenant General Masood Aslam’s only son was in the mosque? How did these attackers managed to enter this highly guarded and secured zone with so many weapons?
Talibans or Pathans are good fighters, and we all know that. But it is beyond their ability to collect so much intelligence, analyse it, make sense of it, and monitor activities of their targets and plan attacks with so much precision.
What this means is that someone else is providing them the required information. It is this someone else who plan attacks with military sophistication and precision; and Taliban only provide manpower or volunteers to carry out the job.
Important question is who is this someone? Many Pakistanis claim that Blackwater (new name Xe) is behind these attacks. Others say RAW and Mossad, Indian and Israeli secret agencies are behind them. Some others claim that the American’s are providing the intelligence and the Taliban are implementing the plans.
It is possible that there is more than one agency at work to destabilise Pakistan. It suits their national interest to destabilise Pakistan. But destabilisation of Pakistan also suits many Pakistanis as well; and they have different reasons for that. Because of this aspect of the war which Pakistan is fighting, some still think it is ‘inside job’.
They claim the disgruntled elements of the establishment and security apparatus are helping the Taliban by providing important information. It must be understood that the war Pakistan is fighting is not against any tribe or geographical area of Pakistan. They are fighting fanatics belonging to a cult, which is willing to die and blow them up to promote their cause. They are also determined to kill anyone who is perceived as an ‘enemy’ or threat to their cause.
These fanatics were recruited during General Zia time and groomed during 1980s and 1990s to promote a particular brand of Islam and export that ideology to serve the cause of Islam and Pakistan. To them end justify means; however wrong that might look to others. These fanatics were appointed in various ministries and in different sections of the Pakistani establishment; and with time they earned promotions and increased their area of influence.
These fanatics did not belong to one tribe or one region of Pakistan. Thousands of them were from various towns of Punjab and Frontier Province. Because of their common ideology and common goal they had good networking and coordination among them. It is this relationship which is causing so much trouble to Pakistan and Pakistani secret agencies, as their loyalty to the cult is much stronger than their loyalty to their departments.
When Pakistan made a U Turn on its policy and joined the America’s war against terrorism these people, as a matter of policy, became part of the war on both sides. However this policy could not continue for too long. Some people were made to retire and others were posted to less significant posts; but some others decided to become inactive for some time.
Some Pakistanis are claiming that they have won this war because of some success in Swat and in South Wazirstan. In my opinion it is too early to make this claim, as the war has just begun. True, Pakistan wants a quick end to this war; but the Taliban leaders have a strategy to drag it on for many years. Moreover external factors will influence the final outcome of the war.
If Pakistan wants to win this war then they have to change their strategy. They must not only rely on use of F16 and helicopters gunship. They have to win minds and hearts of the people and that could not be won by use of brute force and making more people homeless, making more orphans and martyrs. Above all they seriously need to look for moles among their ranks. It is these people who are cause of so much death and destruction in Pakistan.
Writer is a Spokesman of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
To view other articles see my blog: www.drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com
Wednesday, 16 December 2009
Another Kashmiri abducted by Pakistani secret agency
Another Kashmiri abducted by Pakistani secret agency
London 16 December 2009
It looks that Pakistani secret agencies have decided to crush activities of Kashmiri dissidents in Azad Kashmir or more appropriately Pakistani Occupied Kashmir, area under their control since 1947.
Another young Kashmiri Kabeer Shah has been abducted from Athmaqaam three days ago, and no one knows his where about.
Four Kashmiri youths were abducted by ISI Lt Col Hamza from Muzaffarabad about four weeks ago and were only released after a massive campaign for their release in Muzaffarabad and close coordination and support of Asian Human Rights Commission and other human rights groups.
The detainees were taken to a Pakistani city of Peshawer where they were severely tortured and their families harassed and intimidated.
Neelam Valley and Athmaqaam are the worst areas for human rights abuse by Pakistani agencies and forces of occupation. These areas are not easily accessible and are divided by LOC. Also these areas are the focal point for infiltration of militants across the LOC therefore very sensitive as far as the Pakistani agencies are concerned.
In view of growing activities of the secret agencies and abduction cases Kashmiris in Muzaffarabad have set up Missing Persons Society to monitor activities of the secret agencies and to provide support and legal help to victims of abduction.
Famous political activist and a leader of NSF Mahmood Baig has been elected Chairman of this group and Afzaal Sulehria, Zonal President of Kashmir National Party has been elected Secretary General. Both of them played a lead role in the release of the four abductees last week.
While speaking to Dr Shabir Choudhry, Afzaal Sulehria said, we are really concerned about the growing abduction cases of Kashmiri political activists, and request all freedom loving people to help us to fight illegal activities of the Pakistani secret agencies.
Pakistani secret agencies, especially ISI has little regard for the Pakistani law, but as far as Pakistani Administered Kashmir is concerned they are law themselves, as they do not come under jurisdiction of the local law. Local administration even President and Prime Minister of Pakistani Administered Kashmir have no control over them. IG police of Pakistani Administered Kashmir is always a Pakistani and has no control over the activities of the secret agencies.
Issued by Dr Shabir Choudhry
London 16 December 2009
It looks that Pakistani secret agencies have decided to crush activities of Kashmiri dissidents in Azad Kashmir or more appropriately Pakistani Occupied Kashmir, area under their control since 1947.
Another young Kashmiri Kabeer Shah has been abducted from Athmaqaam three days ago, and no one knows his where about.
Four Kashmiri youths were abducted by ISI Lt Col Hamza from Muzaffarabad about four weeks ago and were only released after a massive campaign for their release in Muzaffarabad and close coordination and support of Asian Human Rights Commission and other human rights groups.
The detainees were taken to a Pakistani city of Peshawer where they were severely tortured and their families harassed and intimidated.
Neelam Valley and Athmaqaam are the worst areas for human rights abuse by Pakistani agencies and forces of occupation. These areas are not easily accessible and are divided by LOC. Also these areas are the focal point for infiltration of militants across the LOC therefore very sensitive as far as the Pakistani agencies are concerned.
In view of growing activities of the secret agencies and abduction cases Kashmiris in Muzaffarabad have set up Missing Persons Society to monitor activities of the secret agencies and to provide support and legal help to victims of abduction.
Famous political activist and a leader of NSF Mahmood Baig has been elected Chairman of this group and Afzaal Sulehria, Zonal President of Kashmir National Party has been elected Secretary General. Both of them played a lead role in the release of the four abductees last week.
While speaking to Dr Shabir Choudhry, Afzaal Sulehria said, we are really concerned about the growing abduction cases of Kashmiri political activists, and request all freedom loving people to help us to fight illegal activities of the Pakistani secret agencies.
Pakistani secret agencies, especially ISI has little regard for the Pakistani law, but as far as Pakistani Administered Kashmir is concerned they are law themselves, as they do not come under jurisdiction of the local law. Local administration even President and Prime Minister of Pakistani Administered Kashmir have no control over them. IG police of Pakistani Administered Kashmir is always a Pakistani and has no control over the activities of the secret agencies.
Issued by Dr Shabir Choudhry
Sunday, 13 December 2009
Is Pakistan a failed state?
Is Pakistan a failed state?
Dr Shabir Choudhry 12 December 2009
Many people say Pakistan is a failed state; others say no it is not. Some Jihadi groups and right wing people call Pakistan a ‘fort of Islam’; and a ‘successful’ state, as it made a valuable contribution in the collapse of one Superpower; and has virtually bankrupted the other Superpower in a ‘war on terrorism’.
They make these lofty and irrational claims despite the fact that the country has not won any war against its arch rival, and lost East Pakistan in the war of 1971; and suffered humiliating defeat with imprisonment of more than 90 thousands prisoners. The country is on a verge of economic collapse and rulers are going out with a begging bowl from one country to another; and there is a civil war going on and bombs are blowing in every city and all highly secure institutions have become targets of these bombs.
That aside the issue of a failed state is mentioned from time to time by political commentators and journalists. A failed state is the one which fails to fulfil basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government. All sovereign states have legitimate right to control its territory and have monopoly of use of force within that territory. A state is perceived as a failed state if:
• It loses a physical control of some parts of its territory;
• It loses monopoly over use of legitimate physical force;
• Its writ of government is challenged by militant groups;
• It’s power to make collective decisions is gradually eroding;
• It is unable to provide basic necessities and essential public services;
• It is unable to interact and make legally binding agreements with other states.
Whether we call Pakistan a failed state or ‘dysfunctional state’, phrase coined by a famous writer Tariq Ali; some, if not all, of the above characteristics do apply to Pakistan. A failed state has a weak government which is unable to assert its authority in parts of its territory. In a failed state public services are either non existent or very ineffective and there is widespread corruption, nepotism and criminal activities. In a failed state there are internally displaced people forced out of their homes because of law and order or civil war and sharp economic decline.
According to various indicators including America’s ‘Foreign Policy’ and ‘The Fund For Peace’ Failed States list 2009, Pakistan is a failed state and is among the ten top failed states, with Somalia being at number one. The following list shows the worst 20 states in the world:
1/Somalia, 2/Zimbabwe, 3/ Sudan, 4/ Chad, 5, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 6/ Iraq, 7/ Afghanistan, 8/ Central African Republic, 9/ Guinea, 10/ Pakistan, 11, Cote d’Ivoire, 12/ Haiti, 13/ Myanmar, 14/ Kenya, 15/ Nigeria, 16/ Ethiopia, 17/ North Korea, 18/ Yemen, 19/ Bangladesh, 20/ East Timor
Indicators of state vulnerability
There are twelve indicators which demonstrate state’s vulnerability. Out of twelve indicators four are social, two economic and six political. Social indicators which put a state in a category of a failed state are:
1. Demographic pressures – high population density relative to supply of food and other life sustaining resources, ownership of land and transport; and control of religious and historical sites etc;
2. Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples –forced uprooting of large communities causing food shortages, disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems;
3. Vengeance seeking groups - recent or past injustices, atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups or specific groups, institutionalized political exclusion;
4. Chronic and sustained human flight - both the ‘brain drain’ of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of the middle class.
Economic indicators
1. Uneven economic development along group and tribal lines – inequality and injustice perpetrated against a group or a tribe in education, jobs, and economic status.
2. Severe economic decline – shortage of food items, high inflation, drop in foreign investment, debt payments, collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight.
Political indicators:
1. Criminalization or de-legitimisation of the state – in a failed state there is endemic corruption and ruling elites oppose transparency, accountability and political representation and use their positions to misappropriate funds in a systematic way;
2. Progressive deterioration of public services – gradually functions of the state become ineffective and fail to protect citizens from terrorism and violence; and fail to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation and public transportation etc.
3. Widespread violation of human rights: in a failed state political system is authoritarian and dictatorial, where constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated. It is common to have politically inspired violence, rising number of political prisoners, widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including those of individuals, groups or cultural institutions, harassment of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or cultural persecution;
4. Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’- in a failed state some individuals and organised groups operate with impunity. State-sponsored or state-supported private or religious militias terrorize and eliminate political opponents, perceived enemies, or civilians considered to be sympathetic to the opposition. This ‘army within an army’ or ‘state within state’ protects and promotes the interests of the dominant military, religious or political elite.
5. Rise of factionalised elites - the ruling elites and state institutions have conflict of interest. They could have divisions based on religious, tribal or nationalistic or sub nationalistic lines.
6. Intervention of other states - in a failed state there is a direct or indirect military or Para-military engagement of other countries – they support one or the other group in accordance with their interest, which seriously affect internal balance of power. This intervention is more extensive by those who provide military and economic help.
If one examines situation of Pakistan impartially then one reaches the conclusion that most of the above are clearly visible in Pakistani society today. I leave it to the judgement and wisdom of the readers to decide if Pakistan is a ‘failed state’, ‘successful state’, a ‘fort of Islam’ or a state struggling for its survival. However one thing is clear that Mohammed Ali Jinnah did not dream this kind of Pakistan. Dream of his Pakistan was shattered in early 1950s, and then the country physically disintegrated in to two countries with the ruling elite having any remorse over it.
I wrote this piece because I was asked why ‘You Kashmiris want to join a country which has a begging bowl in hand and which is a failed state?’ I am not in a position to pass on a judgement if Pakistan is a ‘failed state’ or a ‘successful state’, but one thing is sure that Pakistan is not the country of our dreams. We Kashmiris don’t want to become part of this society or this country which appears to have no future; and those who express their desire to become part of Pakistan are either doing it for ‘rewards’ or have a myopic view of politics and future of Kashmiris.
But that does not mean we want to be part of India or any other country. Our dream is liberal, democratic and independent Jammu and Kashmir. I hope we get this dream in our life time; and if that does not happen then I hope that our future generations will continue the struggle until they get unification and independence. I hope our future generations will benefit from fruits of liberal and democratic society and establish a society based on Kashmiri culture of tolerance and coexistene.
Writer is a Spokesman of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email: drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
To view other articles see my blog: www.drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com
Dr Shabir Choudhry 12 December 2009
Many people say Pakistan is a failed state; others say no it is not. Some Jihadi groups and right wing people call Pakistan a ‘fort of Islam’; and a ‘successful’ state, as it made a valuable contribution in the collapse of one Superpower; and has virtually bankrupted the other Superpower in a ‘war on terrorism’.
They make these lofty and irrational claims despite the fact that the country has not won any war against its arch rival, and lost East Pakistan in the war of 1971; and suffered humiliating defeat with imprisonment of more than 90 thousands prisoners. The country is on a verge of economic collapse and rulers are going out with a begging bowl from one country to another; and there is a civil war going on and bombs are blowing in every city and all highly secure institutions have become targets of these bombs.
That aside the issue of a failed state is mentioned from time to time by political commentators and journalists. A failed state is the one which fails to fulfil basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government. All sovereign states have legitimate right to control its territory and have monopoly of use of force within that territory. A state is perceived as a failed state if:
• It loses a physical control of some parts of its territory;
• It loses monopoly over use of legitimate physical force;
• Its writ of government is challenged by militant groups;
• It’s power to make collective decisions is gradually eroding;
• It is unable to provide basic necessities and essential public services;
• It is unable to interact and make legally binding agreements with other states.
Whether we call Pakistan a failed state or ‘dysfunctional state’, phrase coined by a famous writer Tariq Ali; some, if not all, of the above characteristics do apply to Pakistan. A failed state has a weak government which is unable to assert its authority in parts of its territory. In a failed state public services are either non existent or very ineffective and there is widespread corruption, nepotism and criminal activities. In a failed state there are internally displaced people forced out of their homes because of law and order or civil war and sharp economic decline.
According to various indicators including America’s ‘Foreign Policy’ and ‘The Fund For Peace’ Failed States list 2009, Pakistan is a failed state and is among the ten top failed states, with Somalia being at number one. The following list shows the worst 20 states in the world:
1/Somalia, 2/Zimbabwe, 3/ Sudan, 4/ Chad, 5, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 6/ Iraq, 7/ Afghanistan, 8/ Central African Republic, 9/ Guinea, 10/ Pakistan, 11, Cote d’Ivoire, 12/ Haiti, 13/ Myanmar, 14/ Kenya, 15/ Nigeria, 16/ Ethiopia, 17/ North Korea, 18/ Yemen, 19/ Bangladesh, 20/ East Timor
Indicators of state vulnerability
There are twelve indicators which demonstrate state’s vulnerability. Out of twelve indicators four are social, two economic and six political. Social indicators which put a state in a category of a failed state are:
1. Demographic pressures – high population density relative to supply of food and other life sustaining resources, ownership of land and transport; and control of religious and historical sites etc;
2. Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples –forced uprooting of large communities causing food shortages, disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems;
3. Vengeance seeking groups - recent or past injustices, atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups or specific groups, institutionalized political exclusion;
4. Chronic and sustained human flight - both the ‘brain drain’ of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of the middle class.
Economic indicators
1. Uneven economic development along group and tribal lines – inequality and injustice perpetrated against a group or a tribe in education, jobs, and economic status.
2. Severe economic decline – shortage of food items, high inflation, drop in foreign investment, debt payments, collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight.
Political indicators:
1. Criminalization or de-legitimisation of the state – in a failed state there is endemic corruption and ruling elites oppose transparency, accountability and political representation and use their positions to misappropriate funds in a systematic way;
2. Progressive deterioration of public services – gradually functions of the state become ineffective and fail to protect citizens from terrorism and violence; and fail to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation and public transportation etc.
3. Widespread violation of human rights: in a failed state political system is authoritarian and dictatorial, where constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated. It is common to have politically inspired violence, rising number of political prisoners, widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including those of individuals, groups or cultural institutions, harassment of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or cultural persecution;
4. Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’- in a failed state some individuals and organised groups operate with impunity. State-sponsored or state-supported private or religious militias terrorize and eliminate political opponents, perceived enemies, or civilians considered to be sympathetic to the opposition. This ‘army within an army’ or ‘state within state’ protects and promotes the interests of the dominant military, religious or political elite.
5. Rise of factionalised elites - the ruling elites and state institutions have conflict of interest. They could have divisions based on religious, tribal or nationalistic or sub nationalistic lines.
6. Intervention of other states - in a failed state there is a direct or indirect military or Para-military engagement of other countries – they support one or the other group in accordance with their interest, which seriously affect internal balance of power. This intervention is more extensive by those who provide military and economic help.
If one examines situation of Pakistan impartially then one reaches the conclusion that most of the above are clearly visible in Pakistani society today. I leave it to the judgement and wisdom of the readers to decide if Pakistan is a ‘failed state’, ‘successful state’, a ‘fort of Islam’ or a state struggling for its survival. However one thing is clear that Mohammed Ali Jinnah did not dream this kind of Pakistan. Dream of his Pakistan was shattered in early 1950s, and then the country physically disintegrated in to two countries with the ruling elite having any remorse over it.
I wrote this piece because I was asked why ‘You Kashmiris want to join a country which has a begging bowl in hand and which is a failed state?’ I am not in a position to pass on a judgement if Pakistan is a ‘failed state’ or a ‘successful state’, but one thing is sure that Pakistan is not the country of our dreams. We Kashmiris don’t want to become part of this society or this country which appears to have no future; and those who express their desire to become part of Pakistan are either doing it for ‘rewards’ or have a myopic view of politics and future of Kashmiris.
But that does not mean we want to be part of India or any other country. Our dream is liberal, democratic and independent Jammu and Kashmir. I hope we get this dream in our life time; and if that does not happen then I hope that our future generations will continue the struggle until they get unification and independence. I hope our future generations will benefit from fruits of liberal and democratic society and establish a society based on Kashmiri culture of tolerance and coexistene.
Writer is a Spokesman of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email: drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
To view other articles see my blog: www.drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com
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