CPEC
should also benefit GB and not exploit our resources, Dr Shabir Choudhry
Speech of
Dr Shabir Choudhry in a Conference arranged by Jammu Kashmir International
People’s Alliance in Turin, Italy on 7 August 2016.
Title:
CPEC and its political and environmental implications on the region.
Mr
Chairman, friends and colleagues aslamo alaikam and very good afternoon to you
all.
CEPC –
China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a mega project with great potential
benefits for the people of the region. Like all mega projects, a system has to
be in place to ensure that everything goes in accordance with the plan, and
that benefits of the project reach ordinary people.
Furthermore,
people should feel it is their project. They should feel they are part of this
project. At different levels people should be part of decision making; and the
project should empower them.
However,
when we closely analyse what is going on in name of CPEC we can clearly observe
serious problems. I know Pakistanis are accusing India, America and Israel for
the problems related to the CPEC. They will never acknowledge that somewhere
along the line they are also making mistakes.
Also these Pakistanis and pro Pakistan Kashmiris need to
understand that India is not the only country which may have concerns about the
CPEC project. Do they really think Pakistan’s neighbours, Iran and Afghanistan
will be happy with the successful completion of the CEPC and functional Gawadar
Port? Do they think Gulf States like UAE and other countries in the region will
be happy with growing Chinese influence and control in the region?
Some people
think all problems of Pakistan are because of India, America and Israel. Do
these countries tell Pakistanis to mix water in milk, sell fake medicines, sell
dog meat and donkey meat, kidnap children and sexually abuse them; take
Pakistani money out of country and deposit in foreign countries etc. These
people should acknowledge that inhabitants of Pakistan are not Angels.
Pakistanis are also human beings, and all human beings make mistakes. Pakistanis
have to acknowledge that there is too much corruption in their country. There
is extremism, terrorism, hatred and intolerance in the society; and instead of
blaming others for these evils try to find culprits inside the Pakistani
society.
Mr
Chairman
I saw a TV
debate on a Pakistani Channel on 1 Aug 2016. The programme is called ‘Khara
Sach’, and is hosted by Mubbashar Luqman. His guests were Suleman Shah,
economist, Retired General Ghulam Mustafa and Aamir Ghori. According to this
debate there seems to be some serious differences between military and civilian
leadership over the CPEC.
Suleman
Shah asserted that: ‘there is a lack of national effort on CPEC. It is a
national project with tremendous opportunities and requires a national strategy
and implementation mechanism. It requires hardware in the form of construction
of various projects, and software for implementation and running of these
projects, which means signing various types of agreements with so many
companies. It is an international project which requires high level of
professionalism. It is sad that work on CPEC is being done in a typical
Pakistani style; and Chinese are not happy about it’.
In the
programme it was also pointed out that apart from civil military differences
there were differences among the provinces; and even differences among
government Ministers; and some of them don’t even talk to each other. With this
divided house how can you manage and complete a mega project like the CPEC.
Some even questioned the ability of the civilian governments to manage a
Project of this nature, especially when we look at what they have done to PIA,
Steel Mill and other institutions. The participants of the programme urged that
a CPEC Authority should be established. 1
While Pakistan is upbeat about the benefits of the CPEC,
they overlook the inherent dangers of the CPEC to Pakistan and areas of Jammu
and Kashmir under their control. CPEC will bring a massive fiscal burden on
Pakistan because Chinese loan of 35 billion has very high interest rate; and
Pakistan, at times; struggle to pay back low interest on IMF loan instalments.
Also there is serious danger that the CPEC will change
the nature of the Kashmir dispute; and China may ultimately control these areas
to the detriment of peace and stability of the region.
Furthermore, there is every possibility that the CPEC
will have serious imbalance in civil military relationship with the army in
control and calling the shots in all aspects of Pakistan’s life. Some wise
people in the government have realised that the project could prove to be a
white elephant in certain matters where they have to honour their sovereign
guarantees; and according to some reports private Pakistani investors are
dragging their feet, which means some projects associated with the CPEC might
get delayed. The civilian government also don’t look that enthusiastic about
certain aspects of the CPEC; and is drawing criticism from Chinese and the
Pakistan army. 2
For example, the Planning Ministry for
2016-17 budget asked for Rs.350 billion for CPEC related projects; it received
only Rs.124 billion, a third of what was demanded. The Planning Ministry has
allocated 90% of this on road projects and not on the power plants. If CPEC is
a real game-changer, and government believe it is, then one wonders why the
government would be starving the CPEC of funds. 3
Another bone of contention between the
civilian leaders and the men in uniform is that who should control and manage various
aspects of the CPEC. Army leadership wants a permanent role in it. Now that
various organs of the government are under control of the army they urge the
government to give them some kind of institutional role in the CPEC.
In April, 2016, the Minister for Planning My
Ahesan Iqbal told a Pakistani newspaper that he had ‘received an “informal
proposal” six months back for the establishment of a CPEC Authority, in which
the army would have a role, and for CPEC to be made part of the
NAP against terrorism. The government did not accept these ideas, but
General Sharif has not given up’. 3
In various meetings with the civilian and the
army leadership of China, General Sharif urged that for the successful
completion and continued effective operations of the CPEC, it was imperative
that the army had some institutional role in the project. It is because of this
understanding they claim that military-to-military relations had reinforced
China-Pakistan ties, and economic cooperation; and security collaboration
between the two countries should be pushed forward “like two wheels”. The TV
programme I mentioned earlier should be seen in the light of the above points.
It is believed that General Sharif has
repeatedly emphasised the importance of the Pakistan Army, as it was the best
ally of China on the CPEC and other security related matters, hence a leading
institutional role for the army. The Chinese want completion of the CPEC
because of their economic and strategic interests. However, they want assurance
about the safety of their workforce and investment; and Pakistan army is the
only reliable institution to provide that assurance. 4
According to a statement issued by the
Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the two leaders (Army Chiefs) discussed
military-to-military relations, bilateral security cooperation and all
dimensions of long-term China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) security. The
long-term and multilateral security issues of the CPEC project were also came
under discussion at the meeting. 5
News emanating from both capitals indicates
that the Chinese army and the government appreciate Pakistan army’s role in the
CPEC security, and the faster development of the CPEC projects, which they
believe will bring prosperity in the region. Whether the CPEC project will
fulfil all expectations of Pakistan that remains to be seen, however, in my
considered opinion it will result in loss of more power by the civilian
leadership, especially if there was a major attack on Chinese workers along the
route of the CPEC corridor.
Mr
Chairman
Which
country should be blamed for civil and military differences in Pakistan? Who
should be blamed for absence of ‘national effort on the CEPC? Who should be
blamed for corruption in Pakistan? Who is responsible for growing extremism, inefficiency,
intolerance and hatred?
Pakistani
government and officials need to think why some Pakistanis call this project: China
Punjab Economic Corridor; and fear that it might end up like Kala Bagh Dam
project which could not be completed due to opposition from some provinces of
Pakistan. Do these critics lack patriotism or they have genuine fears of
dominance and control of one province?
As pointed
out many times in the past, I am not against Pakistan or Pakistan’s right to
development; but if Pakistan and China exploit our resources and use our
territory to advance their economic and strategic agenda, then don’t expect us
to remain quiet. Today they are strong, and we are weak and forcibly divided;
but situation can change because history tells us geographies of countries
change and so does the power balance.
There is a
growing anger and disappointment in the local people of Gilgit Baltistan.
People feel that they are deliberately ignored and bypassed. They don’t know
the details of the CPEC; and what is there for them. A local concerned man, Abdul Rehman Bukhari said and I quote:
“People want that at least
they should be informed about the project, be taken into confidence so that
they get to know what all benefits they will get from this project. We fear
that this should not happen as if we sit idle and only count the number of trucks
coming from China side and not benefit even a bit”. Unquote 6
To meet its power crises,
Pakistan draws its electricity mostly from Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistani
Administered Kashmir, but ironically none of the power generators have presence
in these regions – thus depriving these regions of potential royalties, which
are paid to Provinces of Pakistan. This is unjust and exploitation of our
resources; and sad thing is we have acute shortage of electricity both in
Gilgit Baltistan and in Pakistani Administered Kashmir because Pakistan steals
our electricity.
Local political and human
rights activists express their deep concern that the Pakistani exploitation
will continue; and with the CPEC China will also be a partner in exploitation
of our resources.
Furthermore, they fear that the
CPEC project will create a huge ecological imbalance, which can result in
environment disaster. The jobs which the CPEC has created are going to the
Chinese people; and the local people remain without jobs. The local people feel
the CPEC will result in more control of our resources in hands of China and
Pakistan; and like imperial powers, both will exploit our resource-rich region.
Mohammed Naeem Khan, a
leader of the Kashmir National Party said, and I quote:
‘One can see the extent of the
exploitation by the fact that they will be constructing
60 economic zones as per the CPEC project, but none of these zones exist in
Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The CPEC will pass through
these areas, but they are only constructing an army headquarter in Diamer for
the security of the CPEC. But out of $46 billion to be spent on the project,
there is no investment in Gilgit-Baltistan and POK”. Unquote 7
We acknowledge territories
of Jammu and Kashmir under illegal occupation of Pakistan are economically and
strategically important to both China and Pakistan, but it does not mean they
treat us as a conquered country and treat us as slaves. Senge H Sering,
Director, Gilgit-Baltistan National Congress, said, and I quote:
“When Pakistan Army was
constructing Karakoram Highway along with China, no compensation was given to
affected people. No loss assessment was made. Now, the land acquirement for the
CPEC project is being done forcibly. The ancestral land of the people cannot be
acquired without paying them compensation and earning their consent. But, the
Gilgit-Baltistan government and Pakistan Army are forcibly acquiring the
ancestral land of the people.” Unquote 8
Mr Chairman
Tariq Fatemi, adviser to the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif,
while speaking to a gathering in Islamabad, comprising mostly of foreign
diplomats and think tank members said: “We are not merely going to connect
Pakistan and China through the Gwadar-Kashgar motorway. Pakistan will build the
Peshawar-Kabul motorway that will connect to the Kabul-Kunduz motorway that
will then get into Kyrgyzstan.” He further said that: ‘Pakistan would
work for peace and stability not as a favour to Afghanistan but as a favour to
itself because Pakistan recognises that there can be no peace in the country as
long as there is no peace in Afghanistan.’ 9
It is interesting to note that there was no representative
of Afghanistan in the conference; and a senior Pakistani talking of peace and
stability. That aside, I want to urge government of Pakistan to reconsider its
policies of proxy war, as the region needs peace and stability. We people of
Jammu and Kashmir also need peace. We also deserve to have freedom and
fundamental human rights.
Environmental Impact of CPEC on
Gilgit Baltistan
Because of the
natural beauty in Gilgit Baltistan, the areas attract a large number of
tourists which is essential for the local economy; however, it is sad that the
local people do not fully benefit from fruits of tourism because Islamabad
takes lion’s share from it. Domestic transport and tourism do have a negative
effect on the environment, as it adds to noise and other forms of pollution.
Now because of the
CPEC and activities related to development and construction, there is huge
increase in the transport, which adds to the pollution and will seriously harm
the environment of the region with disastrous consequences. The ecosystem of
the region, especially in high altitudes will be exposed to pollution.
Mountains and forests have very important protective role against avalanches,
soil erosion and landslides.
Construction of
roads, rail tracks, dams and tunnels in mountainous region means use of blasts
and heavy machinery which will immensely add to pollution. Release of gases
like sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen monoxide (NO),
nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), etc. or suspended particles (dust, heavy
metals like lead (Carcinogenic) or abrasion from brakes, clutches and tyres. These
harmful pollutants have adverse effect on human health. 10
Apart from other
problems caused by pollution, the noise pollution can result in people
suffering from some of the following:
Headaches, nausea,
allergic reactions, stress related illnesses, speech interference, hearing loss
and sleep disruption. If a person is exposed to noise for a long period he can
damage ear drums. Other pollution related health risks could be chronic
respiratory disease, lung cancer, heart disease, and even damage to the brain,
nerves, liver, or kidneys. 11
Furthermore, the
wild life of the region will also suffer because of construction of motorways
and railway lines. One may ask, has the government worked out how the CPEC will
affect the human health. Will increased pollution result in more people going
to hospitals? Will pollution result in decrease in the life expectancy? What
will be the future traffic scenario in the region? What will be the Social
consequences of all this? Are there any provisions made to deal with these
problems?
In conclusion, Mr
Chairman, Pakistan and especially China will surely benefit from this mega
project, but what is there for people of Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistan
Administered Kashmir? I heard that even ordinary labour will be recruited from China.
The CPEC will keep Chinese factories running and labour employed. Evidence so
far indicates that we will only pick up pollution and will suffer from
environmental problems; and may count how many Lorries full of load pass
through our territory every day. We may not be lucky enough to sell eggs and
tea to lorry drivers, as I suggested in the last conference.
Mr Chairman, I am
prepared to answer any questions the audience may have.
References:
1.
The
programme is called ‘Khara Sach’, hosted by Mubashar Luqman and aired on 1 Aug
2016.
2.
The
China-Pakistan Corridor is All About Power. Not Electricity, but the Real
Thing. By Satyabrata Pal on 03/06/2016 •
3.
Ibid
4.
Ibid
5.
Ibid
8.
Ibid
9.
Ibid
Writer is
a political analyst, TV anchor and author of many books and booklets. Also he
is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs. Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com
