Sunday, 6 November 2016

A startling revelation, Gul Bukhari, 06 November 2016

A startling revelation, Gul Bukhari, 06 November 2016

Around the October 26, a retired lieutenant general of the Pakistan Army made some startling revelations on prime time television, when commenting on the massacre of over 61 boys in a police training academy in Quetta. Both IS and later Lashkar-e-Jhangvi Al-Alami had claimed the attack. The Inspector General Frontier Corp (IGFC) Balochistan also identified the LeJ Al-alami as the attackers. This faction of the LeJ has publicly declared allegiance to IS, and IS released pictures of three attackers, one of whom bore a striking resemblance to the face of one of the attackers shot to death (the other two had blown themselves up beyond recognition). So the general correctly stated that both claims were correct as these groups have the same aims and work in collaboration where necessary.
But the chilling revelations came after this statement, and most amazingly did not create any waves, with the revelations taking many days to be reported in print media. In the media’s defence (sic), it was busy with its darling Imran Khan and his umpteenth non putsch, Sheikh Rasheed’s cigar atop a DSNG and other frivolous matters.
This is what the good general said: expressing his frustration and anger with the government, he claimed ‘the army has been telling the government for the last two years that we know that Hafiz Saeed or Masood Azhar have not been directing terror attacks inside India, but because of them there is a perception developing in the outside world that Pakistan is perpetrating terror attacks in India; for God’s sakes take action against them. Then they told the government that if you don’t want to do this, give us the legal cover and we will get them. That too the government didn’t do. Then we said okay, let the Rangers be deployed here (Punjab and interior Sindh), we will get some authority through the Rangers. But that also the government didn’t do. In the first week of April this year, the DG ISI gave the government two plans. The first was to mainstream Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD), and others like them, into mainstream politics over the next one and a half years, clearly outlining the steps for the mainstreaming. The second plan was to segregate and deradicalise the violent groups and induct them into the Rangers and FC, such that they have an alternative livelihood and stop their violent extremism. The government handed this plan (violent groups) to NACTA and it is as a result in cold storage. The other plan (to bring JuD and the like into mainstream politics) is with the Prime Minister and he is sitting on it. And then they gave this news to DAWN which corroborates the American and Indian narrative (referring to the leak of the national security meeting held between the civil and military top brass reported on October 6).’
It is very hard to know where to begin to deconstruct all this. The entire patriotic industry has reacted very strangely since the story in DAWN was leaked, calling the reporter, the newsgroup, and those who found the story or its harbingers credible, traitors. In the meantime, between the October 6 story and now, a conference was held in London, hosted jointly by former Ambassador Hussain Haqqani and Dr Mohammed Taqi, to which they invited like-minded Pakistani people to ponder as to how Pakistan could chart out a progressive, democratic, egalitarian path away from the military’s toxic meddling in policy that has taken the country decades backwards to a precipice on which we hang now. All prominent attendees (including the organisers) were attacked by this industry for their treasonous statements. Dr Ayesha Siddiqa came under a particularly vicious attack. And all for what? For airing what they thought was wrong and how it could be set right.
Now. Back to Gen Shuaib’s revelations: No one has attacked him or the larger security establishment for being treasonous for plotting to endanger the armed forces with a high risk of infiltration by violent extremists. As it is, the Pakistan Army hunts and strings the Hizb-u-Tehreer wherever it finds them for trying to radicalise the ranks and officers, and instigating a rebellion against the top cadres to take over and impose Sharia. Given this, and given the famous attack and siege of the GHQ in 2009 being an insider job, given the PNS Mehran base attack in 2011 being an inside job, given both attempts on General Pervaiz Musharraf’s life being inside jobs, how can the DG ISI’s alleged proposals to government be considered anything other than mad? Stark raving mad?
If what the general has said is based on reality, I beg to ask, is there any scientific body of evidence on de-radicalisation, based on which militants and extremists are being proposed to be inducted into the forces that are supposed to protect our lives and property? Is there a single successful experiment the geniuses at the helm can cite? Or do they just get ideas, construct theories around these ideas, and expect the government to act on these just because they think these ideas would work?
Link the ideas with regards to East Pakistan, Kargil, Balochistan, FATA and Gilgit Baltistan. And FATA reminds of yesterday’s news report. The military dynamited a shopping plaza in South Waziristan in revenge for a major killed in a bomb blast nearby, under the cover of the Federal Crimes Regulations (FCR), that allows punishment under ‘collective responsibility’ under individual acts. It’s another matter that the plaza belonged to agent named Mirzalam, ‘a staunch pro-Pakistan Malik who was killed by the Taliban in 2004’.
Thank God we have a political government. No matter how weak. At least it sits on demented plans, like it sits on most other things. But I would advise the Prime Minister to put these plans to the parliament, because this is where such major policies must be decided on. Let the parliament decide on the wisdom, efficacy, deficiency or risks of major policies. But in the meantime, let’s stop the one sided traitor traitor games. They are passé. No one believes them anymore. Because no one is a traitor.
The writer is a human rights worker and freelance columnist. She can be contacted at gulnbukhari@gmail.com. Follow her on Twitter 



Saturday, 5 November 2016

What they never tell us about Ayub Khans regime, MURTAZA HAIDER

Pakistanis are a forgiving lot. They are even more forgiving of the dead. Civil and military dictators, fascists, hate-spewing clerics, and vigilantes end up with disciples, and at times, even with a shrine.
Military dictators are slightly more fortunate. An army of repute defenders, in uniform and civvies, continues singing the praise of the golden era when the ‘General Sahib’ once ruled.
They reminisce about the days when honey and milk flowed in ravines and open drains, and when the economic growth rivalled that of South Korea or some other Asian tiger or cat.
October 27 marked the 58th anniversary of the Martial Law imposed by General Ayub Khan.
Given that we have the advantage of hindsight, we can revisit the 'golden days' to test the veracity of the claims of bounty and harmony that are usually retailed, yet seldom verified.
Political leaders of all stripes and tenor must envy the good repute General Ayub Khan continues to enjoy almost 50 years after he reluctantly relinquished power.
The popular discourse about the Ayub era (1958 - 1969) is that of economic growth, prosperity, and the growing stature of Pakistan on the world stage.
However, the economic realities of the time are much less glamorous, if not dismal.
An objective review of General Ayub Khan’s policies and actions suggests that his primary motive was to sustain and prolong his rule as his regime sowed the seed, and generously watered the plant, for Bangladesh's separation that came years later.
He empowered the religious fundamentalists as he sought their support against Fatima Jinnah.
The economic growth, which many cite as his singular achievement, promoted the income inequalities resulting in the rise of the 20 influential families who controlled the nation's resources and amassed ill-gotten wealth, leaving the rest poor, hungry, and resentful.
A Chief Martial Law Administrator is born
General Ayub's dramatic ascent to power in 1958 came after a decade of political turmoil.
From 1947 to 1958, Pakistan was governed by four heads of state and seven prime ministers.
The political jostling for power incapacitated the then president, General Iskander Mirza, who suspended the parliament and appointed a new cabinet with General Ayub Khan as the new prime minister.
However, within days, Ayub Khan turned the tables on General Mirza forcing him into a pensioned exile in London.
General Ayub Khan declared himself the president of Pakistan on October 27 while he simultaneously held the office of the Chief Martial Law Administrator. In the General's words:
"Major General Iskander Mirza, lately President of Pakistan, has relinquished his office of President and has handed over all powers to me. Therefore, I have this night assumed the office of President and have taken upon myself the exercise of the said powers and all other powers appertaining thereto."
Too illiterate to vote, but literate enough to create a homeland
From the time he assumed control, General Ayub resented the public and the democratic process.
For him, the public was too illiterate and poor to be trusted with adult franchise.
So he created an electorate ("basic democracy") of a few thousand of whom 95% elected the General as their leader.
That the same illiterate and poor people of Pakistan were wise enough to have voted earlier with their hearts, minds, and feet to create a new country that elevated the same General to the office of the army chief was not sufficient for them to have earned the General's trust for adult franchise.
General Ayub Khan held the politicians squarely responsible for the "chaotic internal situation" and accused them of being willing to barter the country "for personal gains".
He was keen to imprison leading politicians in East and West Pakistan.
The military dictators that came after him have held a similar contempt for politicians.
The economics of inequality
Shahid Javed Burki, a former World Bank economist, rightly identified the fundamental disconnect between the public and the Ayub Junta that celebrated 10-years of being in power by highlighting GDP growth and other inflated macroeconomic indicators.
The general public, however, cared less of the aggregate statistics as they struggled without much success against price inflation and spatial income disparities.
Burki points out that the so-called economic growth was rooted in income inequality, which worsened over time between regions and among people with the growth in the macroeconomy.
The result was evident: half of the industrial wealth accrued to Chinioties in Punjab and the immigrant Memons, Bohras, and Khojas.
At the same time, General Ayub opened the door to foreign experts who were ignorant of, and alien to, the political economy of Pakistan.
Yet they came armed with policies that might have worked elsewhere but were ill-suited for Pakistan's challenges.
General Ayub's economic prowess need not be discounted entirely. His penchant for central planning is evident in the second five-year plan.
The inflow of foreign capital, at twice the rate of that of India, sparked growth in industries that supported consumer goods.
One must also review what drove the growth and what industrial sectors blossomed as a result.
A close look at what transpired reveals that there was nothing organic about the growth.
It was primarily driven by foreign aid, the same way General Musharraf's rule was buttressed by American aid after 9/11.
By December 1961, foreign aid was more than twice the size of foreign loans. With the second five-year plan in 1964, foreign aid was responsible for 40% of the total investment.
And that's not all. Foreign aid covered 66% of the cost of imports. One must give credit where it's due, and it's mainly foreign aid.
Despite the foreign investment as aid and credit, and the aggressive public works programme pursued by the regime to generate new jobs, unemployment persisted, and even worsened during the second five year plan from 5.5 million man-years in 1960-1 to 5.8 million man-years in 1964-5 in East Pakistan.
The regime allocated twice as much for atomic energy than it did for technical training.
What about the rapid industrialisation undertook by the Ayub regime using foreign aid? As soon as the industries started generating revenue, the regime disposed of them to private investors.
During 1964-65, the loans and advances by the government to the private sector were twice the size of the direct investments by the industry.
However, profit-making units that should have been set up by the industry in the first place should have not been handed over to the industrialists as an unearned reward.
Those who defend General Ayub Khan’s reign also hold false memories of peace and harmony. Do such claims withstand empirical scrutiny?
Raunaq Jahangir, quoted by Burki, demonstrated that violence, especially in Bangladesh (East Pakistan), increased tremendously during the Ayub era.
If there was peace and tranquility in the sixties, why did the unrest in 1968-69 reach such a feverish pitch?
It was not the economic growth, but the increasing concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few that irked the have-nots and fuelled violence.
A critical report by none other than Dr Mehboobul Haq, the then Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, revealed that a coterie of just 20 families controlled two-thirds of the industry and three-fourth of the banking.
Pakistan's poet laureate, Habib Jalib, could not ignore the injustice. His poetry galvanised the public as he recited poems at gatherings where tens-of-thousands heard him denounce the 20 nouveau riche, who became even richer at the cost of keeping millions poor. Jalib wrote:
Biis gharanay hein abaad / Or karorron hein nashaad / Sadar Ayub Zindabad.
General Ayub’s global fan base
There was no shortage of the high-profile admirers. From de Gaulle of France to President Johnson of the United States, Western leaders were singing praise for the economic growth in Pakistan.
Even Robert McNamara, the then World Bank president, proclaimed that Pakistan under General Ayub was “one of the greatest successes of development in the world”.
However, experts were quick to point out that de Gaulle, Johnson, McNamara and others focused solely on growth and ignored the distribution of wealth resulting in income inequalities that sowed the seeds of discontent, violence, and ultimately caused the splitting of East and West Pakistan.
The Bangladesh debacle
An oft-cited criticism of the former Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (1971 - 77) is that he engineered Bangladesh's succession to avoid sharing with, or worse losing power to, the demographically dominant East Pakistan.
However, it was General Ayub's years of preferred treatment of West Pakistan that irked East Pakistanis, who couldn't ignore the sustained rebukes when General Ayub placed three of the largest legacy projects, i.e., the construction of the new capital (Islamabad) and the two large hydel projects (Mangla and Tarbela) in West Pakistan.
Furthermore, General Ayub never kept a confidante from East Pakistan as all the King’s men belonged to West Pakistan.
The government of best intentions and worst implementation
Land reforms were one of the cornerstones of General Ayub's socio-political reengineering that restricted the maximum size of land holdings to encourage a more equitable distribution of land and resources among the landless peasantry.
The land reforms, however, achieved little in limiting the size of land holdings and limiting the political clout of the landed gentry. Instead, power and wealth concentrated further in the hands of the notorious 20 families.
The Ayub regime decided to limit land holdings to 500 acres of cultivated land, 1,000 acres of dry land, and 150 acres of orchards. Over 6,000 landowners exceeded the newly defined ceilings, owning 7.5 million acres of land.
The landowners though outsmarted the regime by transferring the land in advance to relatives so that ownership remained with the landed gentry. Thus, not much land was transferred to landless peasants.
Ayub Khan and Islam
Unlike General Ziaul Haq (1977-1988), who spent 11 years of his dictatorial rule to revert Pakistan back to a 7th-century medieval utopia, General Ayub was more of a modernist who was wary of the attempts to convert Pakistan into a desert kingdom of a bygone era.
While addressing a seminary he articulated his views:
"This I consider a great disservice to Islam, that such a noble religion should be represented as inimical to progress … In fact, it is great injustice to both life and religion to impose on twentieth century man the condition that he must go back several centuries in order to prove his bonafides as a true Muslim."
General Ayub's most significant and long lasting contribution is the promulgation of Muslim Family Laws Ordinance in 1961 that empowered women, especially in the matters of marriage and divorce.
Though the commission that drafted the recommendations was constituted in 1954, the Ayub regime took steps to implement the laws empowering women.
Before the family laws were enacted, neither marriages or divorces were required to be registered with the state.
This created severe hardships for divorced women, some of whom eventually remarried.
Their former husbands could, and some even did out of malice, accuse them of adultery since the women lacked proof of divorce from the first husband.
The new laws also required men who desired a second wife to seek formal consent from the first wife.
In summary, the acts and ordinances introduced by the Ayub regime discouraged polygyny, “protected the rights of wives and granted the rights of inheritance to grandchildren.”
Despite his belief and the desire to modernise the society, General Ayub was quick to give into religious orthodoxy as long as the policy about-turns prolonged his control over power.
Sarfraz Husain Ansari documented the policy flip-flops as the General reinstated the restrictive clauses of the Objective Resolution in 1963, which had been expunged from the Constitution earlier.
Furthermore, while the 1962 Constitution used “Pakistan” as the official name, the General yielded to the religious forces and changed the country's name to “Islamic Republic of Pakistan” in December 1963.
Finally, the Advisory Council of Islamic Ideology, which does not miss an opportunity to embarrass Pakistanis by its archaic, and frequently misogynist, interpretations of Islam, is also a gift from General Ayub that keeps on giving.
Ab raaj karey gi khalq-i-khuda
Regardless of how efficient a military regime becomes, in the end, the protagonist has to surrender to the political process in the theatre of governance.
General Ayub was no exception.
Despite his misgivings about politicians and the political process, he joined a political party, the Conventional Muslim League, a version of which has always been available to Pakistan's military rulers as they struggle to transition out of the uniform.
General Ayub knew that joining the political party was no win for him. He explained the reason he acceded to a party was because he had “failed to play this game in accordance with my rules and so I have to play in accordance with their rules — and the rules demand that I belong to somebody, otherwise who is going to belong to me. So it is simple. It is an admission of defeat on my part anyway.”
One wonders if Generals Zia and Musharraf, who followed in General Ayub's footsteps, ever knew or understood his words.
At the end of the day, the right to rule belongs to the people, and it reverts to them regardless, for eternal victory belongs to them, and not to civilian or military dictators.
If it were not for his health issues, would General Ayub still consider abdicating voluntarily? In January 1968, he caught a viral infection followed by pneumonia that developed into a pulmonary embolism.
By the fall of 1968, his health deteriorated even more.
At the same time, the opposition by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto gained strength. On February 21, 1969, General Ayub threw in the towel declaring he would not seek re-election in 1970. By March, General Yahya Khan took control as the Chief Martial Law Administrator.
The repeated failed experiments of military rule in Pakistan make it abundantly clear that unlike other developing countries in the Middle East and in Southeast Asia where military dictators have enjoyed tremendous longevity, Pakistanis love independence and will not tolerate for long attempts to curb their political freedoms.
At the very onset of General Ayub's Martial Law, Justice M. R. Kiyani, the then Chief Justice of the West Pakistan High Court, articulated the very aspirations of freedom and independence of the people as he addressed the Bar Association in Karachi:
"There are quite a few thousand men who'd rather have the freedom of speech than a new pair of clothes and it is these who form a nation, not the office hunters, the license hunters, even the tillers of soil and drawers of water."
Just two days later, the Chief Justice was forced to tender an apology for offending army officers.
Pakistan, despite its struggles with rule of law, violence, and crumbling infrastructure, is stronger today because no one can dare force a Chief Justice to apologise for upholding the Constitution and the principles of democracy.



Saturday, 29 October 2016

Progress versus disruption, by Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif

I write these lines not as a politician or a chief minister but as a common citizen of Pakistan. Barely 24 months back, we had the infamous Islamabad dharna. Once you cut through the noise and bellicose rhetoric, its only contribution was delaying the launch of the historic CPEC, which is already proving to be a fate-changer for Pakistan. Does it matter if this delay may have been an unintended consequence, as some like to argue? What matters is that the project got postponed by one whole year.
As in the life of an individual, every day matters for a nation. Every day, millions of choices are made and decisions taken. And every choice we make, or choose not to, has consequences. What I am talking about here is exactly one such critically important choice for this country; does one support or reject the promised PTI charge on Islamabad?
There are millions of those who reject it, and thousands others who support it, but I want to hear the voice of the many who are still quiet about it. Because, honestly speaking, silence is not an option here; for we are talking about the future of our country, our children.
There are two conflicting versions here – and one is obviously wrong. And it’s time to call that out, loudly and clearly. Government detractors insist that the impending attack on Islamabad and its law-abiding residents is the only available recourse to evoke a ‘truthful’ response from the prime minister on the Panama Papers issue. Unfortunately, this premise itself is untrue.
The truth is that the Supreme Court of Pakistan is already seized of the matter. The truth is that the prime minister has declared, despite stiff opposition by his legal team, not to challenge the court’s legal jurisdiction to take up the issue and has voluntarily submitted himself and his children to the writ of the court. If seeking the truth was the ‘true’ objective, then the Supreme Court is the forum to do it, for there is nothing above it but Allah Almighty. So isn’t it now time for the other side to tell the truth as well and share the ‘true’ reason for this planned onslaught? Or is it, in truth, a covert attempt to disrupt the ongoing progress?
Curse the blinders of ignorance and selfish motives, which prevent many from seeing the difference between personal greed and the country’s need because even outsiders are talking about Pakistan taking off. The Chinese are lauding the progress of work being done here and have coined the term ‘Punjab Speed’ as an acknowledgement. The outspoken managing director of the IMF, Christine Largade, has described Pakistan’s economic turnaround as “a moment of opportunity”. All our economic indicators are up, terrorism is down, economy is on the rise, hopes have been revived, and hopelessness has evaporated. After a long hiatus, we have finally hit the economic deck running. In order to sustain the momentum, we need uninterrupted forward progress, and not retrogressive disruptions.
Every indicator says life is good and getting better. Our forex reserves are the highest in history. Stock exchanges have touched the highest positive notes and there will be surplus energy in 2018. It was only a few days ago that the World Bank listed Pakistan among the top ten improvers in its latest report of Doing Business 2017, titled ‘Equal Opportunity for All’.
Massive transformation is underway in sectors like infrastructure development, transportation, agriculture, communication, youth development, education, and health etc. But, above all, the nation’s morale is high and positive after many years.
But for any country to walk the arduous road of progress, its people must stand and stand firm. It’s time for every citizen of Pakistan to be counted for his and her country. Staying silent, or what many call being ‘neutral’ is not an option. Each one of us has to be biased towards the country, and must openly reject what is manifestly wrong. Call me wrong if you so feel and I shall respect you for expressing your opinion candidly, but will you respect yourself if you do not speak up for your country and allow a few agitating thousands to forcibly attempt subjugating hundreds of millions to their whims and caprices?
The dharna will change nothing in terms of balance of power. The PML-N is the ruling party because the nation elected it and gave it the mandate. And only the nation can take it away. But what the dharna will, however, change and affect is the pace of our progress. It could have an immediate and disastrous impact on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), something our enemies across the borders and those within have tried their best to do, but failed so far.
 The $51.5 billion CPEC forms a lynchpin in China’s historic initiative to build all regional economies and Allah blessed Pakistan to be in a unique geographical situation to be a hub of growth in the region. The CPEC’s overall economic benefit for Pakistan is calculated to be around $150 billion at the minimum in the short term alone.
Nothing is more injurious to the scheduled implementation of the CPEC than an atmosphere of political instability and turmoil. Already, a number of energy projects are at various phases of implementation. Their commissioning on time will add much-needed power to the national grid and have a huge transformative effect across various sectors. The CPEC holds the key to achieving energy security by replacing darkness with light. The ending of the energy shortages alone will add 2-3 points to our GDP.
The first dharna wreaked havoc on the CPEC by delaying its launch but thanks to our immensely strong friendship bond with China, the CPEC and Pakistan survived.
Next time around, we may not be that fortunate because not even the best of friends can wait forever for a country to grapple with its internal demons. Time and tide wait for no one and if we lose the surf, we lose the surge.
The ludicrous logic is being paraded nowadays that ‘the autocracy of majority of numbers is not acceptable’. Democracy may have many shortcomings. Sure, it is an evolving mechanism and must have the capacity to accept change and adapt to the needs of time, but only through an orderly legal process and not by anarchy on the streets. Anarchy breeds chaos and chaos consumes nations, not build them.
We are a nation in the midst of a war. Terrorism is down but not completely out. The valiant armed forces sacrificed thousands of its brave soldiers and officers as did the police and other law-enforcement agencies. But can we ever allow tyranny of religious extremism to be replaced with tyranny of political extremism? Accept anarchy over order?
I can fathom one political leader’s desperation to claim a legacy even at the cost of irreparable damage to the country but I feel compelled to say that notoriety is not a legacy; it’s a curse. Legacies of honour are not carved out of slogans or built upon empty rhetoric. They emerge over time, crafted painstakingly through service to the people. Honourable legacies can only be earned, and not snatched through anarchy or mob rule.
The writer is the chief minister of Punjab.
Facebook.com/shehbazsharif
Twitter: @CMShehbaz


Friday, 28 October 2016

Why Pakistan needs to look beyond CPEC, Jazib Nelson

Why Pakistan needs to look beyond CPEC, Jazib Nelson
Chinese net FDI has witnessed almost a 100 percent surge in FY16. Do we really need to worry about this trend? Yes, we do. It is the matter of simple principle. We are not putting our eggs in many baskets. Rather, it is just one and that is a Chinese bask
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has become the mother of all foreign investments in Pakistan. And there is truth to this. What started as a $46 billion set of projects has now increased to $51 billion as China has recently also committed to fund Karachi-Lahore rail line under CPEC. This price tag alone places it on par with all foreign investments to Pakistan put together.
Every talk show on Pakistan’s economy has this segment about CPEC. Every seminar or conference on any issue of Pakistani economy that any cabinet minister turns up at, there are talks of CPEC. As a nation, we are investing way too much in this silk handshake. But then, it makes sense. What else do we have at the moment other than CPEC? It is true what they all say: CPEC is a game-changer for the country.
Still, I believe our obsession is going way too far here. What really convinced me towards this realisation was that Pakistan has witnessed net outflow of foreign investment worth $130.5 million during FY16 (July-September) from the United States of America (USA). Such outflows of different scales were also observed from Turkey, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Philippines, Luxembourg, and Germany. Interestingly, some of these countries have always been among major investing countries to Pakistan. Chinese net FDI, on the contrary, has witnessed almost a 100 percent surge in FY16. Do we really need to worry about this trend? Yes, we do.
It is the matter of simple principle. We are not putting our eggs in many baskets. Rather, it is just one and that is a Chinese basket. To me, as much as it can strengthen Pakistan, it can make us increasingly vulnerable as well.
There are precedents to this. China has made massive investments in Latin American economies. Just like CPEC they were heavy on the infrastructure side. As much as these countries imported merchandise from China, they also imported aftershocks of a Chinese slowdown. This was followed by inflation increasing by 700 percent in Venezuela. Stock markets of Brazil, Chile, and Peru tumbled as negative sentiments took hold. Exports also skidded in Latin American economies. Similarly, any future slowdown in Chinese economy can have negative bearings on our economy as well given our increasing future connectivity with China through CPEC. In the same vein, our foreign direct investment flow will also become susceptible to Chinese money.
But these can be offset by boom years of Chinese growth. So where can major risks come from that can have widespread and sustained implication for Pakistan? To me, the biggest of them all can come from energy projects.
Most of the CPEC energy projects are coal-based, which are being built under build-own-transfer principle. Any Chinese company building a power plant will own it once it is completed, and after securing an agreed-upon profit margin will transfer the power plant to the government of Pakistan. So what can the government do with such a large scale of power infrastructures? It sure can’t run them all by itself. One option can be to contract them out to foreign investors. But given that world economies are moving away from fossil-fuels based energy — particularly coal-based — to renewables, government may find it hard to rope in many foreign investors.
This shift towards renewable source of energy is based on efforts to contain global warming through curbing carbon dioxide emissions. Energy produced through fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas are high in carbon content, while energy produced through renewable sources like solar, wind, and nuclear are virtually carbon-free. Based on this premise, not many international banks are going to finance a purchase of a coal-based power plant.
The result? These power plants can become a fiscal liability. A liability worth billions of dollars. Ideally, in this scenario, Pakistan should look to hedge against such potential risks by investing its time in other opportunities as well. Pakistan should look beyond CPEC.
One way to accomplish this is to ensure that policy incentives shouldn’t just be a Chinese prerogative only; these incentives should be accorded across the board to all foreign investors. It is like following the famous dictum in finance of putting ones’ eggs in many baskets, and not just one. Pakistan should also put its eggs in many baskets wrapped in different colours not just red.
The writer is a research associate at the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy


Thursday, 27 October 2016

Sensational exposé - Security leaks confirm 98.7% Pakistanis are foreign agents NADEEM F. PARACHA

The leak has come in the shape of a hefty document prepared from sources which include various local and foreign intelligence agencies.
The document/report claims that 98.7% Pakistanis are agents of one foreign intelligence agency or the other.
According to the report, about 40.2% Pakistanis are Indian agents; 33.3% are American agents; 11% are British agents; 6.2% are Iranian agents; 3.1% are Afghan agents; 3% are dual Indian and American agents; 1.1% are Guatemalan agents; and at least one Pakistani is a Ugandan agent.
Our investigation confirms that the report was leaked by the Ugandan agent after his monthly stipend was halted by the Ugandan government due to his failure to recruit Pakistanis other than himself.
We are still trying to determine what Uganda’s intelligence agency wanted from him.
But our initial inquiry suggests that it had something to do with mangoes.
Before being leaked to Dawn, the report was first partially leaked on the popular social media website, LinkedIn. Immediately, it created a stir in the social media realm and was picked up by the media cells of various political parties.
First to comment on it was the official PTI twitter account which tweeted: Traitor Nawaz exposed! Trillions looted to please India/US/UK/Afghanistan/Iran/Guatemala/Uganda.
The account then immediately followed up this tweet with the following one: Traitor government doing blasts on behalf of Modi, Obama, Ghani & Pablo Escobar.
The official PML-N twitter account responded with this tweet: Truth is out! Imran Khan funded by India/US/UK/Afghanistan/Iran/Guatemala/Uganda.
The account immediately followed up this tweet with the following one: Imran doing dharnas on behalf of Modi, Obama, Ghani & Scarface.
A vicious battle of tweets soon ensued between supporters of both parties. Talking to Dawn, an active member of PTI’s social media team said: "Traitor Nawaz daughter Maryam mota group media cell funded by RAW, CIA, Geo, Dawn Bread looting trillions, zillions doing bum blasts to stop muscular Atlas from wiping corruption from face of Pakistan 98.7% guarantee agents against us bleed green patriot opticians oh what a feeling jab aye ga Imran baray gi shaan banay ga naya Pakistan …"
When a member of the alleged ‘mota group’ which allegedly runs PML-N’s media cell was allegedly contacted, he allegedly said: "what allegedly, allegedly you are talkings? Our mota group true patriotic group. Our Nawaz elected by 98.7% Pakistani voters and motors but this traitor Khan and his traitor party putting heavy heavy stones on path to progress on behest of foreign enemies of nation. One punch from us break teeths of mommy-daddies but our leader Nawaz tell saber karo and keep patient because all will be wells by grace of orange line and Mao tse-Tung …"
As the battle between the two parties got intense on social media, PTI chairman Imran Khan held an emergency press conference at his Islamabad residence. He was flanked by top party men and Sheikh Rashid Ahmad of the one-man Awami Muslim League.
Imran told reporters: "The leaked report only confirms what I have been saying for years. 98.7% members of the PML-N are corrupt. They do not want me to turn Pakistan into a modernistic traditionalistic Scandinavian Islamic welfare capitalistic socialistic democratic caliphate!"
When a journalist reminded him that the report mentions 98.7% of all Pakistanis, Imran replied: "98.7% PML-N voters. All corrupt."
When the same journalist told him that the report was about agents and not corruption, Imran shot back: "You must be from Geo."
When the journalist said he wasn’t, Imran retorted: "Then maybe Dawn Bread. All corrupt." When the journalist decided to walk out in protest, PTI leaders began to chant, "Go, Nawaz, Go! Go, Nawaz, Go!"
However, Sheikh Rashid intervened and requested the journalist to return. He told reporters: "Please, understand. Pakistan standing on very fragile turn. Media our best partners and lovers, except few traitor ones, but, as the report confirms, 98.7% media houses support our stand on corruption."
When told that the report mentioned nothing of the sort, Sheikh got agitated and announced: "I have part of report which say this. I will only show on patriotic TV channels at 8pm sharp. Watch it. You can also catch repeat telecast at 11.05 pm sharp or watch recording on YouTube at any pm or am sharp. Okay?"
Meanwhile, in Lahore, Minister of Information, Parvez Rashid, held his own presser. He told the gathered media personnel: "This leaked document which landed in my LinkedIn inbox and will soon be published by newspapers around the globe, has once and for all verified the fact that 98.7% policies and actions of Imran Khan and his party are being funded by enemy countries to derail our government’s fantastic initiatives to turn Pakistan into a modernistic traditionalistic Middle-Eastern Chinese monarchic democracy."
When told by a journalist that the report has mentioned 98.7% of all Pakistanis and not just PTI members, the minister replied: "You must be from ARY." When the journalist told him he wasn’t, the minister said: "then maybe from Bol."
When the journalist decided to walk out in protest, the minister said: "Go. If you don’t like our Pakistan then go to Uganda which pays you."
Another leading PML-N man, Abid Sher Ali, intervened and managed to make the journalist return after promising him a free run of his personal swimming pool, a pair of St. Michael’s swimming trunks and a centrespread of him in the same trunks in the fashion weekly, Hello. To this, the defence minister, Khwaja Asif, retorted, "Kuch sharam, kuch haya …"
Eventually, other political parties also stepped into the fray. In a tweet, the chairperson of the PPP, Bilawal Bhutto, said: "Zinda hai Bhutto zinda hai, 98.7% zinda hai"
He further elaborated this rhetorical reaction in another tweet: No one is an agent in Pakistan. Stop this. Only Modi ka jo yaar hai wo 98.7% ghdaar hai.’
In yet another tweet he further clarified: By this I mean only 1.3% Pakistanis are agents. Rest 98.7% are all Bhuttos.
In a press statement, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the chief of JUI-F, said: "This is clearly a document which was concocted by Imran Khan because it doesn’t mention Israel. Had it not been concocted by Imran Khan, then it would also have mentioned Israel." He said that JUI-F was 98.7% sure about this.
While talking to Dawn, chief of the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), Sirajul Haq, said: "The figures given in the report are not correct. 99.99% Pakistanis are agents and only .1% are true patriots."
He said all of these .1% Pakistanis were members of JI and that the party will be awarding all of them the Al-Dil-Bola-Al-Pakola Award – an award which the party believes was first introduced in the 8th century CE by the founder of Pakistan, Mohammad Bin Qasim.
Chief of the Jamaatul Dawa (JuD), Hafiz Saeed, said: "Listen BuD, if I CuD, then I WuD turn 100% Pakistani brothers and sisters, and sisters who have become brothers, into committed charity workers with charity offices around the WuD in 80 days. But some agents WuD like to impose a ban on JuD, but rest assured, they will eat MuD!"
He was speaking during a show on a TV channel, Neho, which is famous for bringing the people of Pakistan the wisdom and brilliance of wise and brilliant intellectuals who wisely and brilliantly hate Polish agent, Malala Yusufzai.
MQM-London’s chief, Altaf Hussain, didn’t say anything. But he did make a curious smooching sound which the media is now trying to decipher. MQM-Karachi said that the report proved that 98.7% Karachiites are with MQM-Pakistan.
But Mustafa Kamal’s Pak Sar Zameen Party rubbished the claim by stating that MQM-London and MQM-Pakistan were both full of enemy agents and that 98.7% Karachiites would be voting for Pak Sar Zameen Party. Mustafa Kamal told Dawn that Altaf’s smooches were a signal to his agents in Pakistan to attack anti-Altaf patriots on next year’s Valentine’s Day.
The leaked report also drew reactions from India. Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, told Indian TV anchor, Arnab Goswami, "you are very dashing and sexy patriot."
Goswami pumped up his chest, expanded his nostrils and began to beat his chests with his fists, all the while making loud gorilla noises. PM Modi smiled and then jumped behind the pumped up Goswami to snap a selfie with him.
When the producer of the show asked Goswami to talk about the leaked report, Goswami declared that the producer was a Pakistani agent and should be lynched for storing beef in his refrigerator. PM Modi smiled and said, "you are very hunky patriot."
Goswami jumped up and began to swing from a ceiling fan, all the while shouting, "Om Puri, you Pakistani beefeater, leave India and go to Lahore!’ PM Modi smiled and said, ‘Om Puri has very bad skin. No selfie."
Till the filing of this report, Goswami was said to be still swinging from the fan and cursing Puri, while PM Modi had turned his attention to Adnan Sami Khan, calling him "very willowy patriot after quitting meat and dieting on Gujarat cabbage. Very slender and slim. 98.7%."