Pakistan
is not afraid of India.
Dr
Shabir Choudhry 21 November 2020
Vast number of
Pakistanis are brainwashed into believing that their army is the number one
army in the world, exceptionally courageous, patriotic and invincible. Also
they believe that their prime secret agency, Inter Service Intelligence, is
number one in the world, and that other secret agencies and countries are
afraid of Pakistan.
These Pakistanis
also believe that their nuclear bombs, including tactical nuclear devices, and
the delivery system and other missile systems are unique and best in the world.
They believe that even in a conventional war, the Pakistan army will surprise
everyone, and they will capture Jammu and Kashmir and could possibly hoist a
Pakistani flag on the Red Fort.
I had a
difficult conversation with one middle ranking officer of the Pakistan army. He
angrily said:
‘We are not
afraid of India. We are smaller than India. We have less resources, but we are
better fighters, more committed and are capable of defeating India; and don’t
give me an example of 1971. It was a political defeat. We are a totally
different army now, highly trained and disciplined. We are a battle hardened
army with strong dedication, religious fervour and patriotism. In the next
round of war we will surprise India and other adversaries. There must be a
reason why people regard us as the best army in the world’.
I said the army
that has lost all the wars is the best, but what about the armies which have
not lost any war. Are they not highly trained and disciplined?
‘India did not
win in 1947, in 1965 or in the Kargil war’, he retorted. ‘In 1971, it was a
political defeat; and don’t forget, India lost in 1962 war with China too’.
I replied, I did
not even mention India. Why are you so obsessed with India. I know the
Pakistani soldiers are very brave and dedicated, but war strategies are
formulated by the Generals, and I am not sure if they have the same kind of
commitment and passion for a war with India.
He was clearly
not happy with what I said. His reply was: ‘I know what was in your mind. You
may be knowledgeable in other fields, but your knowledge on the Pakistan army
is very basic’.
It was my turn to interrupt him, I said,
‘OK, I am not an expert on Pakistan army, but I have
read many books written by the retired Pakistani army officers, and other
Pakistani writers. Tell me why your brave army Generals released the Indian
pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, who came to inflict damage and kill people
in Pakistan? A few weeks ago it was a talk in Pakistani social and political
circles about wet paints, sweat and shaking legs after the threat of Indian
reprisals. If you people are so brave, why legs were shaking, and why the pilot
was immediately released; and why Pakistani establishment was begging China,
Britain, American, Saudi Arabia and even tiny UAE to intervene and save
Pakistan from the Indian attack’.
He tried to interrupt me, but I continued, ‘If that was a good - will
gesture, as they claim. It was a desperate gesture to appease India, or
neutralise the Indian anger. If you are so kind hearted, then why don’t you
demonstrate a similar good will gesture and release missing people who were
abducted from various parts of Balochistan and KPK? Why not release political
prisoners of Gilgit and Baltistan and so called Azad Kashmir’.
As there was no
reply to the above, and it was too much for his tolerance and ego, he used a
swear word and disconnected the phone. It is good that we were holding this conversation
on the phone, otherwise he would have attacked me physically.
I can agree that
the Pakistani soldiers and middle ranking officers are very dedicated and
brave, however, the same cannot be said about the senior officers. The top
brass of the army know their strength, dedication and their resources; and
international support which is crucial in wars. They also know what resources
India has, how strong is their army, and what international support they have,
and even among the Muslim countries.
Pakistan learnt
many lessons from the defeat of 1971, and formulated new strategies to
teach lessons to India. One such strategy was never to have a full scale war
with India. Instead, use proxies to bleed India with thousand cuts, hit India
economically and divide the Indian society on religious lines to justify the
creation of Pakistan and its existence.
They have
engaged India not only in Jammu and Kashmir, but also in other parts of India.
With a systematic campaign, they bled India, and generated so much hatred that
the majority of people of Pakistan, Kashmir, so called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit
Baltistan see India as a culprit.
Pakistani and
their supporters in Kashmir POJK and Gilgit Baltistan think it is India which
has started a proxy war against Pakistan, and they are behind all wrong doings
in Pakistan. So much so that if someone sells a donkey meat or fake medicine in
Pakistan, these stalwarts of Pakistan will accuse India for that.
With active
support and help of China, Pakistan engaged India at different levels. At the
same time, Pakistan spent a huge amount of money to develop its nuclear
capability, improving delivery system, missiles, air force and submarines. They
have also developed a second strike ability in case of a nuclear war.
Experts estimate that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is
around 150 bombs, more than enough to cause havoc in the region and the world.
They have the ability to develop more than 40 more warheads.
To care, protect and develop strategies for the nuclear
weapons, Pakistan has created a special division for the nuclear weapons,
called Strategic Plans Division. It is believed that the most of
these weapons are stored in very safe places, like in the Punjab Province, and
not in KPK which is unstable and under the influence of the Taliban and
extremists.
Pakistan can effectively deliver nuclear weapons on
target by land, air and sea. They have also developed a second strike
capability, which according to some Pakistani experts, enable Pakistan to fight
a nuclear war, if that becomes an issue of the country's survival.
Pakistan’s top bureaucrat, Roedad Khan, in his book,
‘Pakistan a Slave State’ wrote about wars:
‘It is incontestable that economic power, more than anything else,
determines the outcome of a long - drawn - out war but this is not true of
short, lightning wars lasting for a few weeks only like the three wars fought
by India and Pakistan. The outcome of
such short wars is determined more by
military organization, preparedness, leadership, and national morale’. 1
He further said that because Pakistan is
economically weak with nuclear weapons, and is not in a position to fight a
long war with India, therefore, Pakistan for its survival must prepare for a
short and a defensive war with India. 2
Outcome of any war, short or long, is
determined by a talented and determined army leader and superior technology.
The Indian army is larger than that of Pakistan. Also their air force, navy and
other weapons have clear superiority over Pakistan. Indian economy and
international standing is much better than Pakistan.
Pakistani nuclear bombs could be delivered on target by land, air and
sea. Pakistani Jet fighters capable of delivering nuclear bombs have to
penetrate Indian air space, which is not that easy because of India’s air
defense system. In view of this, Pakistan is more than likely to use land and
sea if the situation demanded.
For the land delivery system, Pakistan can use Hatf
mobile missiles, which include ‘the solid-fueled Hatf-III (180
miles), solid-fuelled Hatf-IV (466
miles) and liquid-fuelled Hatf V,
(766 miles)’. The Shaheen missiles could also be used to deliver nukes on
target, especially in faraway areas. 3
From
sea, Pakistan can use Babar cruise missiles to deliver the nuclear bombs on
targets. Babar 2 can also be used by seal and land. In January 2020, Pakistan
successfully tested, Babur-3, which in view of Kyle Mizokami ‘would be the
most survivable of all Pakistani nuclear delivery systems’. 4
Despite this
nuclear muscle and formidable conventional strength and dedication of the
fighting force, the army leadership is not convinced that they can defeat India
in a conventional war. They prefer to use proxies to keep India bleeding in
Kashmir and elsewhere.
This is not to
suggest that Indian hands are clean and that India does not interfere in
matters of Pakistan. No matter what pressure India applies on Pakistan, or for that
matter, what the international community says about the Pakistani policy of
using proxies to advance their agenda, the establishment of Pakistan very
bravely, under different pretexts continue to use their proxies to commit acts
of violence and terrorism.
That is a big
success of the Pakistani strategy. They have been bleeding India by using
proxies (no need to mention Afghanistan) for many decades. India picked up dead
bodies, treated injured, tolerated economic loss, stomached national pride, and
bravely issued threats which they were not capable of carrying out.
The Pakistani
ruling elite knew that these were just threats. It is like a naughty boy
troubles a teacher in a classroom, and the teacher gives certain threats to the
child to discipline him. The child laughs, and continues with his mischief in
the class.
Similarly, each
time a big event takes place, India says enough is enough, if it happens again,
we will retaliate. People who matter in Pakistan smile at this, and continue
with their mission. Another incident takes place, and India once again condemns
it, and warns Pakistan not to do it again or face reprisals. This goes on
without a break.
Pakistan’s top
army officers are conscious of this fact they cannot fight a conventional war
with India for too long. Use of tactical nuclear weapons is not a sensible or a
serious option, because the consequence of that is too dreadful to contemplate.
In view of this,
fall back for the Pakistani army is to get support from China; either Chinese direct
involvement in the war or seriously engage India on multiple points along the
LAC.
We can
appreciate Pakistan’s ‘bravery’ when it comes to India. However we request the
Pakistan establishment to let us live in peace. We people of the divided State
of Jammu and Kashmir want to live in peace. We have no animosity with India or
Pakistan.
Please don’t
kill us by the LOC firing. It doesn’t matter who starts the firing, we the
people of the divided state suffer on both sides of the divide. This policy
must stop, and stop immediately so that our people can get some relief.
In this regard,
we request Pakistani establishment to stop sending militants across the LOC
which triggers the LOC firing. Also we request the Pakistani establishment to
move out their camps and safe houses of the militants from the villages because
their presence invites the Indian reprisals; and innocent people die as a
direct result of that.
We request both
governments to make the LOC violence free zone by making 5 miles peace zone
along the LOC where the people of Jammu and Kashmir can interact and socialise.
Also we request
the Pakistani establishment to abandon their policy of nourishing extremist
groups like Taliban, LeT, JeM, LeJ, TLP and many others, who are exporting violence
and terrorism, and intimidating and harassing the local people.
