September 27, 2014
Which South Asian
country is more important for China’s future?
Among China’s relations with Asian neighbors, its ties with the
countries in South Asia are generally considered to be the weakest. Now, with
Sino-Japan tensions over the East China Sea and conflict with many Southeast
Asian countries over the South China Sea, the role of South Asian countries has
become more prominent. South Asia is now a focus in China’s regional strategy,
as shown by President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to the area.
When it comes to South
Asia, people think of India and Pakistan first. China has an “all weather
friendship” with Pakistan but an ambivalent, often testy relationship with
India. But the future is sometimes different from both the past and the
present. Moving forward, which country is more important for China? Even
without a clear answer, just puzzling through this question can help make many
issues clear.
In fact, we only to need
to answer two questions to know whether India or Pakistan is more important for
China. First, which one is a major power? Second, which one can better help
China realize its interests?
Which is the major
power, India or Pakistan? The answer is relatively simple — India. When it
comes to international influence, India is part of BRICS and the G20 and is a
leader of the developing world through the G77 and the Non-Aligned Movement.
India is well poised to become a major power in the world arena.
The answer is even more
obvious from the economic perspective. According to the World Bank, India’s GDP in 2013 was roughly $1.9 trillion. By
contrast, Pakistan’s GDP was only $236 billion, only about 12 percent of
India’s. In 2013, India was the 10th largest
economy in the world
in terms of GDP.
India’s economy is just
beginning to boom; its growth rate in 2013 was 4.5 percent. Experts believe
that India today is like China in the mid-1980s, poised for rapid economic
growth. Despite many difficulties, there is no reason for India’s economic
growth to come to a halt. By contrast, Pakistan has not enjoyed the same type
of economic growth in the past decade. Of course, at 1.2 billion, India’s
population is far greater than Pakistan’s, but even when looking at per capita GDP India
outranks Pakistan. The gap between two countries will probably widen in the
future, placing Pakistan at even more of a disadvantage when compared with
India.
Of course, it’s worth
asking the obvious question: as India becomes a major power in the
international stage, will it necessarily be friendly toward China? Indeed, not
all major countries look kindly on China — just look at Japan. However,
Sino-Indian international cooperation far outweighs the disputes between two
counties. This is the point where they can carry out friendly cooperation.
China’s top leaders understand this clearly.
Though the Sino-Indian
border problem has to be addressed, it is fundamentally different from the
Sino-Japan conflict over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. The problem has not become
a precondition and impediment for bilateral development; it is instead viewed
as one of many issues that are part of a normal bilateral relationship between
two countries. Looked at another way, existing issues in the Sino-Indian
relationship have not impeded China’s important strategic initiative of
“marching West.” Meanwhile, the China-Japan disputes have seriously impacted
China’s strategy for oceanic development.
Since these two
countries kicked off negotiations on border issue in 1981, China and India have
establishedcoordination and communication mechanisms on a variety of fronts, including
official meetings at the deputy-minister level, task-force meetings, meetings
of diplomatic and military experts, special delegate meetings, and the Working
Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on China-India Border Affairs. It’s
safe to say that these mechanisms rule out the possibility of war over the
border issue, even though so-called sensitive incidents are often hyped by the
media in both countries. By contrast, there are no such mature communication
mechanisms for China and Japan in their dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu
Islands.
Given that India is a
major power and that the Sino-India border issue has not scuttled bilateral
relations, China has good reason to develop diplomatic ties with India. As top
Chinese leaders are devoting much effort to establishing a presence in the
South Asia, this trend will continue and intensify in the future. Beijing also
hopes that India can become a partner to support China’s interests when it
comes to international issues. For China, the potential rewards of such a
strategy are huge.
For a country often seen
as “isolated,” as China is, it’s extremely important to have a friend that
shares the same stance on international issues. To play such a role, this
partner should be economically strong with some clout in international
politics. Besides Russia, India is the natural choice to play this role in
China’s foreign policy. Hence, the answer to my second question becomes evident
– a Sino-Indian partnership can help China achieve its national interests more
quickly and easily.
Chinese leaders are
aware of this. After taking office, China’s Premier Li Keqiang paid a visit to
India as part of his first trip abroad. Li also proposed establishing the
Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor, a sign of how valuable
India is to China. Undoubtedly, India was the most important destination during
President Xi’s visit to the South Asia. It is quite rare for both top Chinese
leaders to visit the same country so soon after taking office; this was China’s
way of endorsing Sino-Indian friendship.
China and India already
have similar positions on a number of issues, including their stances toward Syria,
Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, and the need to protect the interests
of developing countries. Together with Russia, these three countries have
formed a kind of “quasi-alliance” relationship. These three countries already
work together in the BRICS organization; now India is getting ready to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These are the foundations for
China and India to work together as major world powers.
Unlike India, Pakistan
cannot become a top-level strategic partner of China in international affairs
due to its limited capabilities in the world arena. Pakistan is not a major country
in a global sense, although it plays an important role in regional affairs.
Despite this, for a long time, China has tried to contain India diplomatically
by intensifying bilateral relations with Pakistan. This formed the foundation
for China to form a “strategic alliance” with Pakistan in the 1970s. As China
seeks more cooperation with India, this rationale for the China-Pakistan
friendship becomes less important.
At the same time,
Pakistan is becoming more important to China due to the frequent occurrence of
terrorist attacks in west China. Pakistan plays a bigger role in fighting
terrorism than India, and Chinese leaders believe that terrorism will become a
major obstacle for China in developing its western regions. In response, China
has established an alliance with the SCO to fight terrorist forces in northwest
China; it also works with Pakistan to do so in southwest China, giving new
meaning to the “strategic alliance” between China and Pakistan.
However, Pakistan’s rise
in importance brings both opportunities and risks for a stable Sino-Pakistani
relationship. The strategically adjusted Sino-Indian relationship and new
developments in anti-terrorist cooperation will pose constraints for the
development of China-Pakistan relations.
The U.S.-Pakistan
relationship deteriorated significantly due to different approaches to the
fight against terrorism. China will have to be careful to avoid repeating the
failure in U.S.-Pakistan relations when it comes to fighting terrorism. Based
on my own interactions with Pakistani officials, though they expressed their
support for fighting terrorism, they would not talk much about specific
cooperation and results in this regard. Judging from Pakistan’s military
capabilities and ideology, they face some objective and subjective constraints
in fighting terrorism. That in turn could pose a constraint for future
China-Pakistan cooperation. For example, the media will eagerly publicize
China’s privately aired resentments in this regard to the international
community.
Of course, there are
also some constraints for developing Sino-Indian relations. Beyond the border
issue, India’s cooperation with other Asian countries such as Japan and Vietnam
could have a negative impact on Sino-India relations.
However, the criteria to
judge if the Sino-Indian relation is healthy is to see if India has the
intention to contain China in these outward activities. If Indian outreach to
Japan and Vietnam is just part of normal national exchange, China should be
tolerant. For example, Russia’s sales of weapons to Vietnam will not affect the
strategic landscape between China and Russia.
Any relationship between
major powers includes both cooperation and competition, and Sino-India relation
is not an exception. The competition between China and India, however, is
mostly about safeguarding territorial sovereignty. The conflict between China
and Japan, as a comparison, goes deeper and involves the two countries’
differing outlooks on the international order. Therefore, the Sino-Japan
competition is more problematic as each seeks to contain the development and
international exchanges of the other country.
As China has become the
world’s second largest economy (and will soon become number one), India has
lost its edge to compete with China economically. The Indian people are quite
realistic about this. Therefore, the economic competition between China and
India will become less fierce in the future as India focuses on its own growth
rather than comparing itself to China. In fact, the China-India partnership can
benefit as China increases its investments and helps propel economic growth in
India.
Politically, China is
already accepted as an internationally important country, one of the permanent
members of the UN Security Council and a major voice within the existing
international order. India does not seek to challenge to China’s position. On
the contrary, India seeks to work with China in certain international platforms
(such as G20, BRICS, and now the SCO) so as to attain greater international
influence. China already plays an important role in these organizations and can
help India do the same. In this sense, both countries have stronger incentives
to cooperate politically.
India is a major power
with clear development prospects while Pakistan is a regionally important
country facing an uncertain economic future. China has to take this into
consideration with developing relations with India. However, this is not to say
that Beijing should abandon Pakistan. It’s also in China’s interests to
maintain friendly relations with Pakistan, both to in promote diplomatic
relations in South Asia and to fight terrorism.
