Saudi
6illion dollars to Pakistan comes with strings
Saudi Arabia's crisis
over Khashoggi murder is Imran Khan's gain, but Pakistan may still be expected
to up military cooperation with the kingdom
Arabia
with a pledge of $6 billion in loans. Khan was likely able to secure the deal
with fewer strings than a previous rejected offer, due to enormous
international scrutiny on the kingdom in the wake of the Jamal Khashoggi
murder. But the latest package may require a deepening military partnership
with Saudi Arabia.
Khan headlined on day one of the Future
Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh on October 23, even as many western
officials withdrew.
The kingdom’s generosity comes at a critical
time for Pakistan, which is facing a fiscal crisis and last month saw $300
million in US military aid suspended by the Trump administration.
“Trump’s decision has stripped the military of
resources, forget about the rest of the country,” Pakistani military scientist
Ayesha Siddiqa told Asia Times.
On Khan’s return to Pakistan, he stated in a
televised address that Pakistan will help end the conflict in Yemen.
“We are trying our best to act as a mediator
to resolve the Yemen crisis,” Khan said. Observers have interpreted this
statement by Khan as being linked to the terms surrounding the loans, as there
were no other significant points mentioned by the PM regarding his visit.
Riyadh in 2015 launched a coalition to fight
the Houthi rebels in Yemen and sought military support from Islamabad, but
Pakistan’s parliament voted against joining the war.
Saudi Arabia just two weeks ago offered loans
to ease Pakistan’s financial woes, but Islamabad refused. “There were too many
conditions attached,” said Minister of Information Fawad Chaudry.
When asked what led to Pakistan shifting its
position to accept the Saudi loans, Chaudry said: “ There is a change in
politics. Obviously Saudi Arabia needs some support. I think the situation has
changed now.”
With Saudi Arabia’s reputation under pressure,
Pakistan was likely able to negotiate more acceptable terms, but those have not
yet been disclosed.
“The terms could not be elaborated due to the
fact that it is not in the interest of the mediation currently taking place,”
Chaudry told Asia Times.
He said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would
likely present its findings on the terms surrounding the deal next month.
The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not
respond to a request for comment on the terms.
“They need to bring this to the parliament to
tell us what conditions are attached by the Saudis and what they expect from
Pakistan in return,” said Miftah Ismail, Pakistan’s former federal finance
minister.
“There was no discussion, therefore. Until we
understand what transpired at the conference it is hard for us to really know
if this is a good decision or not,” said Ismail.
Yemen, Balochistan in
focus
According to a diplomat close to discussions
in Saudi Arabia, this loan is not only a commercial deal, but the kingdom is
also interested in Balochistan.
Balochistan is of strategic interest to both
Iran and Saudi Arabia, bordering the Islamic Republic and located north of the
Arabian Sea.
Saudi Arabia has faced allegations of backing
anti-Shiite jihadist groups in Balochistan, namely Jundullah and Jaish al-Adl,
and a heightened influence could be dangerous for Pakistan’s security.
“If you increase investment, it is not just
money that pours in. With the money comes influence,” analyst Siddiqa said.
“It’s hard to imagine a $6 billion gift with
no strings attached,” said Michael Kugelman, a scholar on Southeast Asia at the
Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C.
“There’s a very good chance Saudi Arabia
placed some type of conditions on this support. Riyadh may have made it quite
clear that Pakistan will need to rein in its recent efforts to position itself
as a neutral actor in the Saudi-Iranian regional rivalry,” Kugelman said.
“Pakistan has an Iran problem and a Saudi
problem. [The Pakistani military] is allowing the Saudis to build up their
capacity in Balochistan, which is in effect a certain kind of encirclement
around Iran,” said Siddiqa.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have maintained a
defense partnership since 1983, though it is very difficult to pinpoint the
exact number of Pakistani personnel in the kingdom. According to Kamal Alam of
the London-based think tank RUSI, there are at least 1,200 Pakistani trainers
in various Saudi security and military sectors.
A source close to the Pakistani military said
the number is far higher, however. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he told
Asia Times there are upwards of 7,000 Pakistani military personnel in the kingdom.
“One of the big questions coming out of this
new deal is whether Riyadh has now asked Islamabad to operationalize that
military presence and be willing to join Saudi military efforts in Yemen,”
Kugelman said.
“Islamabad has long resisted this ask from
Saudi Arabia, but with this financial assistance Islamabad is now getting,
Riyadh has more leverage,” he added.
According to a political source briefed on the
matter but who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the subject, the
Pakistani armed forces have been under mounting pressure from the Saudis to
join the conflict in Yemen.
The Saudi-led intervention has never been more
controversial, with Yemen facing what the United Nations last week said
could become the worst famine in living memory.
Upon his return from Saudi Arabia, Khan said:
“My fellow Pakistanis, today I am here with good news for all of you. We were
facing really hard times. We were under high pressure to pay heavy debts. But
thanks to Saudi Arabia’s extension of assistance, we are out of this pressure.”
The coming months will reveal if Pakistan is
prepared for the reasons behind the kingdom’s generosity and whether the
country can continue to deflect military requests in Yemen.
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